Action, not words or empty talk, needed to cure global economy, China tells G20 summit

G20 Summit in Hangzhou

Leaders pose for pictures during the G20 Leaders Summit at the Hangzhou International Expo Center in Hangzhou, East China's Zhejiang province, on Sunday. WU ZHIYI/CHINA DAILY

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G20 Summit opens in Hangzhou, Xi delivers keynote speech

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Video: President Xi delivers speech at G20 banquet

Video: President Xi delivers speech at G20 banquetChinese President Xi Jinping urges world leaders to avoid "empty talk" and confront sluggish economic growth and rising protectionism as their summit opens in the scenic city of Hangzhou.http://english.cctv.com/2016/09/04/VIDEAYffDNcMahOalCr6FgGB160904.shtml

Action, not words, needed to lift economy - President tells world leaders China will strive to boost growth, aid development

President Xi Jinping urged the leaders of the world's biggest economies to deliver "real action" and "no empty talk" as they attempt to steer the global economy out of its sluggish state.

In his opening speech at the start of the two-day G20 Summit on Sunday, he said the G20 had drawn up action plans in multiple fields, including sustainable development, green finance, energy efficiency and anti-corruption, "and we should implement each of them seriously".

The Hangzhou summit has come at a time when the world economy is plagued by problems, short and long term, such as poor growth momentum, changing demographics, rising trade protectionism and low investment, Xi said.

But he insisted that G20 members will "face the problems squarely" and collaborate in developing solutions.

World leaders vowed at the meeting to find workable solutions to restore strong growth and achieve more-inclusive development that reduces inequality. They also agreed that more focus should be placed on structural reforms, innovation and high-technology, as traditional growth engines have weakened.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said leaders had agreed that they must work together to boost global economic growth, and she welcomed China's focus on structural reform.

She added that digital ministers from the world's biggest economies will meet for the first time next year and that the group planned to set up a task force for innovation, Reuters reported.

Xi said in his speech that while the world needs to better coordinate monetary and fiscal policies and carry out structural reforms, priority should be given to achieving balanced growth. He said the G20 will help less-developed countries, including those in Africa, with industrialization as well as green energy and finance to bridge the gaps in global development.

The G20 has been criticized in the past for failing to take concrete measures to coordinate world economies. While urging members to take substantial action, Xi said the group "should continue to build our mechanisms to ensure our cooperation continues and deepens".

"The G20 is becoming more systematic and is changing from a short-term arrangement to handle crises to a long-term dialogue and action mechanism," according to Chen Wenling, chief economist at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges. "To make it more effective, the G20 should establish a secretariat."

Wang Wen, acting director of Renmin University of China's Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, added: "The G20 used to be driven by crises, and now it's driven by ideas. China has provided a global consensus at the Hangzhou summit that will drive global joint action."

World economic growth－still made in China

By Stephen S. Roach (China Daily)

Despite all the hand-wringing over China's slower economic growth, the Chinese economy remains the single largest contributor to world GDP growth. For a global economy limping along at stall speed－and most likely unable to withstand a significant shock without toppling into renewed recession－that contribution is all the more important.

A few numbers bear this out. If Chinese GDP growth reaches 6.7 percent in 2016－in line with the government's official target and only slightly above the International Monetary Fund's latest prediction of 6.6 percent－China would account for 1.2 percentage points of world GDP growth. With the IMF currently expecting only 3.1 percent global growth this year, China would contribute nearly 39 percent of the total.

That share dwarfs the contribution of other major economies. For example, while the United States is widely praised for a solid recovery, its GDP is expected to grow by just 2.2 percent in 2016－enough to contribute just 0.3 percentage points to overall world GDP growth, or only about one-fourth of the contribution made by China.

The European economy is expected to add a mere 0.2 percentage points to world growth, and Japan not even 0.1 percentage points. China's contribution to global growth is, in fact, 50 percent larger than the combined contribution of 0.8 percentage points likely to be made by all of the advanced economies.

Moreover, no developing economy comes close to China's contribution to global growth. India's GDP is expected to grow by 7.4 percent this year, or 0.8 percentage points faster than China. But the Chinese economy accounts for fully 18 percent of world output (measured on the basis of purchasing power parity)－more than double India's 7.6 percent share. That means India's contribution to global GDP growth is likely to be just 0.6 percentage points this year－only half the boost of 1.2 percentage points expected from China.

More broadly, China is expected to account for fully 73 percent of the total growth of the BRICS grouping of large developing economies. The gains in India of 7.4 percent and South Africa 0.1 percent are offset by ongoing recessions in Russia, minus 1.2 percent and Brazil, minus 3.3 percent. Excluding China, BRICS GDP growth is expected to be 3.2 percent in 2016.

So, no matter how you slice it, China remains the world's major growth engine. Yes, the Chinese economy has slowed significantly from the 10 percent average annual growth recorded during the 1980-2011 period. But even after transitioning to the slower growth of what the Chinese leadership has dubbed the new normal, global economic growth remains heavily dependent on China.

There are three key implications of a persistent China-centric global growth dynamic.

First, and most obvious, continued deceleration of Chinese growth would have a much greater impact on an otherwise weak global economy than would be the case if the world were growing at something closer to its longer-term trend of 3.6 percent. Excluding China, world GDP growth would be about 1.9 percent in 2016－below the 2.5 percent threshold commonly associated with global recessions.

The second implication, related to the first, is that the widely feared economic "hard landing" for China would have a devastating global impact. Every decline in Chinese GDP growth of one percentage point knocks close to 0.2 percentage points directly off world GDP; including the spillover effects of foreign trade, the total global growth impact would be around 0.3 percentage points.

Defining a Chinese hard landing as a halving of the current 6.7 percent growth rate, the combined direct and indirect effects of such an outcome would consequently knock about one percentage point off overall global growth. In such a scenario, there is no way the world could avoid another full-blown recession.

Finally (and more likely in my view), there are the global impacts of a successful rebalancing of the Chinese economy. The world stands to benefit greatly if the components of China's GDP continue to shift from manufacturing-led exports and investment to services and household consumption.

Under those circumstances, Chinese domestic demand has the potential to become an increasingly important source of export-led growth for China's major trading partners－provided, of course, that other countries are granted free and open access to rapidly expanding Chinese markets. A successful Chinese rebalancing scenario has the potential to jump-start global demand with a new and important source of aggregate demand－a powerful antidote to an otherwise sluggish world. That possibility should not be ignored, as political pressures bear down on the global trade debate.

All in all, despite all the focus on the US, Europe, or Japan, China continues to hold the trump card in today's weakened global economy. While a Chinese hard landing would be disastrous, a successful rebalancing would be an unqualified boon. That could well make the prognosis for China the decisive factor in the global economic outlook.

While the latest monthly indicators show China's economy stabilizing at around the 6.7 percent growth rate recorded in the first half of 2016, there can be no mistaking the headwinds looming in the second half of the year. In particular, the possibility of a further downshift in private-sector fixed-asset investment could exacerbate the ongoing pressures associated with deleveraging, persistently weak external demand, and a faltering property cycle.

But, unlike the major economies of the advanced world, where policy space is severely constrained, the Chinese authorities have ample scope for accommodative moves that could shore up economic activity. And, unlike the major economies of the developed world, which constantly struggle with a trade-off between short-term cyclical pressures and longer-term structural reforms, China is perfectly capable of addressing both sets of challenges simultaneously.

To the extent that the Chinese leadership is able to maintain such a multi-dimensional policy and reform focus, a weak and still vulnerable global economy can only benefit. The world needs a successful China more than ever.

The author is a faculty member at Yale University and a former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, and author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China. Project Syndicate

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G20 summit recognizes China's success, a historic starting point for the world, expert said

All in a day’s work: Chinese President Xi Jinping attending the opening ceremony of the B20 Summit ahead of the G20 Summit in Hangzhou. ...

G20 summit recognizes China's success, a historic starting point for the world, expert said

All in a day’s work: Chinese President Xi Jinping attending the opening ceremony of the B20 Summit ahead of the G20 Summit in Hangzhou. — Reuters

MOSCOW: The fact that the G20 summit will be held in Hangzhou, China, reflects the global recognition of and respect for China’s giant economic success, a leading Russian economic expert has said.

“The international community admits that China has become a major economic power, which largely determines the economic development of the whole world,” Vyacheslav Kholodkov, head of the International Economic Organisa­tions Department at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, told Xinhua.

As the second-largest economy of the world, China has a strong impact over global economic processes, the economist said, adding that the performance of China’s stock markets and its import of energy resources exert a powerful influence on world markets.

Kholodkov also expressed the belief that the Western media today have exaggerated and distorted the existing problems with the Chinese economy.

“China’s economic success is like a thorn on the side of many Western politicians and journalists, because it shows that there are other more successful models besides the Western liberal economic model,” the expert noted.

In his opinion, the current problems plaguing China were those of structural adjustments and shifts in economic development pattern.

If previously China’s development had been driven mainly by exports, it is now shifting from an export-oriented development model to focusing on domestic demand, Kholodkov said.

Kholodkov saw “nothing dramatic” in such a development, as other countries that experienced similar problems have survived such transitional periods.

China’s GDP grew by 6.9% last year, a rate to be envied by many countries, according to Kholod­kov.

China presents an example for many developing countries, including Russia, which are closely watching China’s experiences and following some of its trends in their political practices, he concluded. — China Daily/Asia News Network

Summit can be historic starting point for the world

President Xi Jinping and US President Barack Obama meet at the West Lake State Guest House in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, on Saturday. Wu Zhiyi / China Daily

The Austria-born American management philosopher Peter Drucker once attributed the absence of right-wing fanaticism in North America to the self-organizational ability of society, represented, first of all, by the thousands of well-managed business enterprises.

That point should be appreciated today, when, eight years after the 2008 global financial crisis, all major economic powers still cannot guarantee a sustainable recovery for the world.

The annual meeting of the G20 bears witness to the shared will and joint efforts of the leading developed and developing economies in the world. All countries have so far remained steadfast in their agreement to hold a defensive line for the globalist agenda. There has not been a full-scale trade war and competitive currency depreciations－at least not yet.

The global financial crisis has cast a very long shadow, with growing income inequality in many places and corporations holding onto their capital instead of investing, and judging from the rising protectionism, along with some ideologically-charged rhetoric, from various political forces, there are some who seem willing to set back or spoil the globalization process.

A genuine "mass flourishing" of businesses is needed to help the world both stay on the course of globalization and avoid the malaise that caused the last crisis.

That is why the G20 created, alongside its annual summit, a business leaders' meeting, called the Business 20. That is also why the G20 needs not just a business leaders' meeting, but also a distilled vision of common concerns and necessary actions, which is what President Xi Jinping delivered in his keynote speech at the B20 Summit on Saturday.

Drucker proposed that long-range planning does not deal with future decisions, but with the future of present decisions. In his speech Xi urged all parties to prescribe remedies to the world's economic problems and explore new sources of growth and expand the space for development.

The foreign guests can see for themselves through Hangzhou, the host city of the G20 and B20 summits, how China has become a leader of growth, as the city is home to many new businesses and new management models.

As Xi said it is an unprecedented achievement for a country with such a large population to realize modernization. The more businesses are created, the more they spread from developed to under-developed areas. In the process, obsolete industries are phased out and new ones emerge, jobs are created, and cities such as Hangzhou become vibrant.

The same process can also prove true elsewhere in the world. - (China Daily)/ANN

China plays a key role in setting G20 agenda

The G20 summit meets against the backdrop of two interrelated global issues.First,since the international financial crisis global growth has been slow. Second, asa result social and geopolitical crises have persisted. China’s proposals for the G20 summit – an innovative, invigorated, interconnected and inclusive economy –simultaneously and in an integrated way address both issues.

China’s four proposals are inseparably connected:

Innovation, in technology and in management, logistics, skills and ideas, is indispensable for sustained economic development.

But innovation purely in ideas is insufficient to lead to sustained economic development. Advances in ICT technology, for example, had to be embodied in investment in internet and computer technologyto produce productivity gains. Therefore, the global economy must be invigorated through increased investment, new trade liberalisation agreements, new financial institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and modifications in global economic governance. This requires drawing on numerous resources in global economy and finance.

Development is most powerful if internationally integrated. Since Adam Smith founded modern economics it has been known that the most powerful force developing productivity is division of labour, which in a globalised economy necessarily includes international division of labour.Retreats into protectionism deeply damage the world economy. But advancing international division of labour requires not only legal trade and investment agreements but development of internationally integrated infrastructure making such trade possible and supporting international investment. Such integration highlights the importance of China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’initiative,while China supports economic integration in Africa, Latin America, Europe and elsewhere.

Development must be inclusive both between and within countries.Failure of sections of the world’s population to benefit from economic development is dangerous politically. Impoverishment of sections of the population and social disintegration has led to terrorist organisations gaining support, andin some cases open warfare, in parts of Africa and the Middle East. Within advanced economies failure of parts of the population to gain from economic growth strengthens protectionist and xenophobic forces which threaten global economic integration and therefore global prosperity.

Success in developing innovative, invigorated, interconnected and inclusive economic growth will therefore lessen geopolitical and social tensions.

China is in an unequalled position to give leadership on this G20 agenda not only theoretically but due to China’s practical achievements in dealing both with the international financial crisis and over the longer term.From 2007, the last year before the financial crisis, to 2015 China accounted for 46% of world growth measured at current exchange rates – compared to 22% for the second placed US.China was the world economy’s most powerful engine to face the international financial crisis, benefitting both advanced and developing economies.

World Bank data shows 83% of the world’s population still lives in developing countries. Economic development therefore remains the most pressing issue facing humanity. China, the world’s largest developing economy, increased its per capita GDP, the fundamental index of economic development, from 2007 to 2015 by 86% - the fastest of any G20 country.

China playsa key G20 agenda setting role because, in addition to these shorter term anti-crisis trends, China’s historical economic and social achievements are unprecedented.From 1978 onwards China experienced the most rapid economic growth in a major economy in human history. China lifted 728 million people from World Bank defined poverty, 83% of the reduction of those living in poverty in the world. This is greatest contribution of any country to human well-being.

But despite these achievements China’s stress on integrated inclusive growth means China has no conception it can successfully develop alone. Instead China advocates strengthening the G20’s role. G20 economies account for 85% of world GDP, including the largest advanced and developing economies. The G20 is therefore provides an unequalled forum to coordinate measures to deal with the world’s most pressing economic issues.

China’s proposals for an innovative, invigorated, interconnected and inclusive economy are therefore crucial not only for this year’s Hangzhou summit but a step towards the G20s strategic development.

By John Ross (People's Daily Online)

John Ross is Senior Fellow at Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China.

G20 can unlock global economic potential

The 2016 G20 Hangzhou summit will kick off on Sunday and a related meeting, the Business 20, will be held this weekend. As China is the chair of this year's G20, expectations are running high though some still try to interpret the event through an ideological lens. But the fact that the global governance capability will be mobilized to its maximal extent at this year's summit may be a common consensus.

China sees G20 as a top item on its agenda and has strived to create favorable conditions for the summit. Some say too much attention has been put on G20. However, the positive significance of a successful G20 overweighs the negative effect. From the perspective of urban development, the summit has promoted Hangzhou's growth and image.

China is a unique member of G20. It is the world's second-largest economy and the largest developing country. It has excelled in some areas but the overall economic and social development is not as advanced as in some other countries. China's high speed development together with its experience, from both successes and mistakes, make us easier to find common ground with both developed nations and emerging markets.

China is sincere about promoting global governance and creating a win-win situation in resolving world economic issues. China's rise, to some extent, is the result of globalization. Chinese believe strengthening international cooperation is a global trend and are devoted to the win-win principle. We believe the G20 playing a greater role will benefit China and the world.

Compared to the time of the first G20 summit in 2008, the global economic issues have become more complicated and morale has taken a further beating. Eight years after the financial crisis, the developed nations have yet to walk out of the shadows and the emerging markets are facing increasingly grave challenges. G20 needs a passionate summit and the enthusiasm of the Chinese society will help make it happen.

There is still great potential in the global economy and the key is to redistribute resources more reasonably so that less developed regions can drive growth that benefits all sides. The same issue has also been haunting China. The country has been restructuring and developing through the process of reform. The exploration belongs as much to China as to the world.

Macroeconomics may not be the most popular stories. Some Western media tend to politicize the summit or sprinkle their coverage with gossip. The summit only takes two days and the topics proposed by China revolve around the economy. As the global economy is once again at a crossroad, we hope the media can make the call heard for an "Innovative, Invigorated, Interconnected and Inclusive" world economy. Global Times

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