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Friday 17 September 2010

Small Business Can’t Get Loans From Bailed-Out Banks

By Bob Ivry
 
(Bloomberg) -- Chip Besse figured he could hire a dozen people once he got a $1.1 million small-business loan.

Wells Fargo & Co. turned him down.

U.S. taxpayers helped the San Francisco-based bank weather the 2008 financial crisis with a $25 billion loan and $9.5 billion of debt guarantees. By July 2009, when Besse wanted to buy and expand a Colorado snowmobile-rental business, Wells Fargo wasn’t sharing the wealth, he said.

Besse, 29, had little success with 16 other lenders in 2008 and 2009. His list included New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co., which agreed to provide less than 70 percent of what he wanted, and Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America Corp., which Besse said kept him hopeful for a month before rejecting his application.

“I was furious,” he said. “A lot of bankers are trying to justify their jobs and they waste everyone’s time.”
Besse, a Philadelphia native, was a partner in a London private equity firm with a credit score of 769 out of 850 and $185,000 in a checking account. His search for a loan shows how difficult it is for small companies, which the Small Business Administration says created 64 percent of net new jobs over the past 15 years, to get credit -- even from banks that accepted billions in taxpayer-funded bailouts.

Trading, Not Lending

The U.S. government helped Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America back to health with $189.3 billion in loans under the Troubled Asset Relief Program and debt guarantees through the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The rest of the country: not so much. That’s in part because of policies the Federal Reserve has instituted to help banks, said Peter Morici, an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business at the University of Maryland in College Park.

“We’ve created a system that encourages bankers to trade, not lend,” Morici said.

A record 41 percent of small business owners say they can’t get adequate financing, up from 22 percent two years ago, according to a July report by the National Small Business Association, a 150,000-member advocacy group founded in 1937 that has surveyed entrepreneurs since 1992. New small-business loans fell 33 percent last year from 2008 to $191.6 billion, the lowest total since 2000, according to the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council.

Outstanding loans declined 16 percent as of June 30 compared with 2009, based on the council’s data. Tighter credit makes it tougher for entrepreneurs such as Besse to hire some of the 14.9 million Americans who are out of work.

No Data

Spokespeople for the three big banks that Besse approached said they didn’t track their small-business lending until last year, the middle of the longest economic downturn since the 1930s. It’s therefore impossible to gauge their recent volume against their performance before the credit contraction began.

JPMorgan Chase increased new small-business loans 36 percent to $4.5 billion in the first half of 2010 over the same period last year. Bank of America lent $8.2 billion, a 1 percent increase, the company said.

Wells Fargo lent $6.6 billion; it has no comparable number for 2009, according to Marc L. Bernstein, head of the bank’s Business Direct and Small Business Segment. Banks define small businesses as those with annual revenue of less than $20 million.

Little Demand

The three banks said they’re lending as much as they safely can in an environment with few creditworthy small businesses and soft demand.

“The last thing we want the banking system to be is excessively liberal in its lending standards,” said Bert Ely, a banking industry analyst in Alexandria, Virginia.

Entrepreneurs and their advocates counter that lending guidelines have become so strict that many business owners have given up trying to get credit.

“If the government had used the same lending criteria on the big banks that the big banks are using on us, the banks never would have gotten the TARP money,” said Carl Calhoun, who tapped $400,000 in home equity to finance his St. Petersburg, Florida-based mattress company, Commercial Bedding Co., after he couldn’t find a lender.

The credit crunch for small businesses has drawn the attention of President Barack Obama and Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who have both called for more lending.

With the U.S. unemployment rate stuck at more than 9.5 percent for the past year, the U.S. Senate today passed legislation that would provide $30 billion in loans to banks with less than $10 billion in assets. The bill, which now must go to the House for a final vote, includes incentives for the banks to extend credit to small businesses, along with tax breaks for eligible companies.

‘Still Struggling’

“At a time when small business owners are still struggling to make payroll and they’re still holding off hiring, we put together a plan that would give them some tax relief and make it easier for them to take out loans,” Obama said yesterday.

While they won’t disclose their investing strategies, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America were among four banks that reported a “perfect quarter” in the first three months of this year. That means they made money trading every day. Wells Fargo wouldn’t reveal how its trading desk fared.

The Fed’s low-interest-rate policy makes it easy for banks to lend to the U.S. government rather than small businesses, said David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist for Toronto-based Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc., which manages $5.4 billion.

Safe Yields

Banks, which can borrow at the overnight rate of about 0.20 percent, can get safe yields of more than 2.5 percent buying 10- year Treasury bonds and other almost risk-free U.S. obligations, Rosenberg said.

Banks held a record $1.597 trillion of Treasury and government agency securities on Sept. 1, according to the Fed, 44 percent more than at the start of the recession in December 2007. The 10-year Treasury yield was 2.72 percent yesterday.

“The biggest risk in buying Treasuries is that interest rates will rise, and the Fed has repeatedly said short-term rates would remain close to zero as far as the eye can see,” Rosenberg said.

Lowering interest rates has been part of the Fed’s effort to facilitate small-business lending, said David W. Skidmore, a spokesman for the central bank in Washington.

Strengthening Banks

“Easier monetary policy encourages banks to lend to small businesses and other borrowers since the rates banks receive on alternative investments are lower,” Skidmore said. “And we have focused on strengthening the nation’s banks so that they can resume normal lending as quickly as possible.”

The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, a Fed lending program established in November 2008, helped finance more than 850,000 small business loans, he said.

One option the central bank has to spur lending is cutting the 0.25 percent interest it pays banks on reserve accounts it holds for them, Bernanke said on Aug. 27. The central bank’s emergency lending and asset purchases since September 2008 have swelled those accounts to more than $1 trillion, according to Fed data, a more than 20-fold jump since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

Senior loan officers at big banks reported loosening credit guidelines for small businesses this year for the first time since 2006, according to a July survey by the Fed. Still, small business owners complain that banks have reduced credit lines and increased interest charges.

‘Zero, Zippo’

“Bailing out Wall Street has done zero, zippo, nothing to help small business and create jobs,” said Dale R. Kluga, 50, president of Cobra Capital LLC, a finance company in Darien, Illinois, that funds about $40 million worth of equipment for small businesses.

Besse said he was eager to run his own outfit, so he left Clearbrook Capital Partners LLP when he found Grand Adventures LLC in Winter Park, Colorado. The company rents snowmobiles and arranges tours.
“It was a lifestyle decision,” he said. “I was thinking, how can I not work so much and have fun? Something where I can watch my kids grow up and be a part of the community.”

Since he had an account with Bank of America, he said he applied there first for a loan.

Jefferson George, a Bank of America spokesman -- like all representatives of banks Besse applied to -- declined to comment on Besse’s case specifically.

Bear Stearns

Besse approached Bank of America in June 2008, as financial institutions were tightening credit in the wake of the near- failure of Bear Stearns Cos. Since then, Bank of America’s lending to businesses with less than $20 million in annual revenue has fallen, according to regulatory filings. It had $15.9 billion in such loans outstanding at the end of June, down 12 percent from the same date last year and 20 percent from two years ago.

Though Bank of America said in a July 27 press release that it had loaned $45.4 billion in the first half of 2010 to small and mid-size businesses, about 80 percent of the loans went to companies with more than $20 million in sales.

“There’s very weak demand from the smallest businesses,” said Kathie Sowa, Bank of America’s small-business credit executive, who is based in Sacramento, California.

Demand only appears to have slackened because entrepreneurs are frustrated with lenders and have given up asking for money, said Galen Gondolfi, a senior loan counselor at Justine Petersen, a nonprofit microlender in St. Louis.

“I can tell you straight out: Small businesses are not getting the financing they need,” Gondolfi said. “We are experiencing unabated demand.”

Incomplete Statistics

Statistics on lending to small business aren’t always complete. Data collected by the Small Business Administration include only loans backed by the agency. The Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, established in 1979 and consisting of the Fed, the FDIC and other bank regulators, tallies outstanding loans with original amounts of $1 million or less.

Loans backed by the SBA so far this year are down 14 percent compared with roughly the same period in 2007, according to the agency’s data. They increased 47 percent to $12.3 billion over last year, when the U.S. economy was contracting. SBA loans went to less than 1 percent of small businesses in 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Besse took his quest for a loan to Wells Fargo in June 2008. After the bank’s underwriters said they wanted him to have experience in the snowmobile business, he went to work for the company he wanted to buy, he said.

In July 2009, Wells Fargo turned him down.

Went Snowmobiling

“I had a relationship with them,” Besse said. “They came out to Winter Park in January and went snowmobiling. They promised so many things and didn’t deliver anything.”

Wells Fargo’s Bernstein said the bank made $13 billion in new small-business loans last year, followed by $6.6 billion in the first half of 2010.

“We do everything we can to say yes,” Bernstein said in an interview. He declined to discuss Besse’s individual case.

Besse said a loan officer from JPMorgan Chase “moved faster than anyone else and operated the most honorably” and ended up offering a loan for $750,000 -- less than Besse needed.

The bank was looking to pare back risk, Besse said the loan officer told him.
Banks need cash cushions to insulate themselves against losses from the property bubble that they haven’t yet written off, said Christopher Whalen, co-founder of Torrance, California-based Institutional Risk Analytics.

Buybacks Possible

Such losses equal about one-third of the amount they’ve already written off as unrecoverable, Whalen said. For Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, the total amount would be about $50 billion, he said, based on the banks’ regulatory filings.

Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase may be on the hook for as much as $78 billion in home loans they sold to buyers during the housing boom such as government-controlled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according to an Aug. 17 report by Washington-based Compass Point Research & Trading LLC. Mortgage buyers can demand reimbursement for loans that violate underwriting guidelines or involve fraud.

Jerry Dubrowski, a spokesman for Bank of America, said credit quality is improving and he wouldn’t forecast charge- offs. Thomas Kelly, a JPMorgan Chase spokesman, said the bank is ready and willing and will continue to lend. Wells Fargo’s credit losses peaked in the third quarter of 2009 and the bank expects them to continue to decline, Chief Financial Officer Howard I. Atkins said Sept. 13.

Banks Under Pressure

Besse finally got an $850,000 loan from Collegiate Peaks Bank of Salida, Colorado. Collegiate Peaks, with four branches and $164 million in assets, borrowed $2 million in TARP funds, about .002 percent of the $95 billion in TARP money that went to Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo.

Banks with less than $10 billion in assets make 60 percent of the country’s small-business loans, according to the Independent Community Bankers of America. They’re under pressure to make fewer loans now, said Bob Hahn, chief executive officer of Community Valley Bank in El Centro, California, where the jobless rate is 30.3 percent, the highest in the U.S.

Small banks are failing at a rate of one every two days, according to FDIC data, and they’re facing greater regulatory scrutiny because of that, Hahn said.

“We’re being told to raise more capital or shrink assets,” said Hahn, whose bank has two branches and $60 million in assets. “What’s the primary asset of a community bank? Loans. That’s where the pressure is coming from.”

‘Financially Savvy’

Besse’s snowmobile business got credit in part because it had sufficient cash flow and the snowmobiles could be sold off in the event of missed payments, said Kim Palmer, the SBA lending manager at Collegiate Peaks.
“Chip is very financially savvy and has accomplished a great deal for someone his age and we saw this as a way to establish a relationship with someone like that,” Palmer said.

Besse hired 12 new employees by adding a guided back- country skiing business he called Powder Addiction.

Shawn Edmondson, 36, a husband and father of two boys, 9 and 7, was a carpenter in the area when work “slowed way down” because customers couldn’t get loans to renovate their homes, he said. He estimated that his 2008 income was $15,000.

Besse hired him last year as a ski guide. Edmondson said he earned about $200 in salary and tips every day on the slopes, surpassing his full-year 2008 pay in the six-month ski season.

“We don’t make a lot, but this is income that keeps us afloat,” Edmondson said. “We can pay our mortgage and stay on top of things.”

--With assistance from David Mildenberg in Charlotte, North Carolina, and John Tozzi and Susanne Walker in New York. Editors: John Voskuhl, Anne Reifenberg.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Ivry in New York at bivry@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Gary Putka at gputka@bloomberg.net.

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Thursday 16 September 2010

Comparing Chinese And U.S. Capitalism

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Official presidential portrait of Barack Obama...

At the dawn of the new century, a new technology promised to fundamentally change global economics. Government leaders in the United States and China, the two largest economies in the world, believed that companies from their respective countries should lead in the development of this new technology. By 2010, two national champions, one from each country, had emerged.

Founded by a young entrepreneur in the mid-1990s with approximately $300,000 of capital, Company A had become a global leader over a 10-year period in a related field. In 2002, Company A went public, gaining additional capital by listing its shares on one of the world’s major stock exchanges. Then, in 2003, Company A decided to diversify beyond its original business and develop new products using the new, game changing technology.

By late 2008, Company A had attracted the interest of a prominent global investor, a cold-nosed, savvy industrialist who regularly saw the most promising investment opportunities from all over the world. Proclaiming Company A’s technology to be the best that he had seen, his company invested over $200 million in Company A. With a long history of commercial success and profitability, Company A achieved revenues of nearly $4.0 billion, and earnings of $150 million, in 2008.

On the other side of the world, Company B came into being just after the turn of the century. Convinced by the vast potential of the new technology, the founders were a group of individuals who based Company B’s products on research done by one of the country’s leading universities. By 2006, Company B had attracted the attention of the country’s government and business leaders, and began receiving development grants from an industry consortium that was working in collaboration with a large government agency. Incremental investments from several of the country’s largest companies followed.

Company B’s breakthrough came at the beginning of 2009 when it won a $250 million grant from a government agency to build a new production facility in an economically depressed part of the country. In addition to wanting its country to lead the world in this new technology, the government was motivated by its desire to create jobs for its citizens.

With strong government support, Company B went public in late 2009 and raised an additional $400 million of capital. In 2009, Company B had revenues of $91 million, and a net loss of $87 million. By the end of 2009, it had accumulated losses of $239 million and had never earned a profit.

If you are a United States politician or business leader, or just a plain ordinary American citizen who is alarmed by this story and concerned with the way in which “China, Inc.” is competing unfairly in the global economy, well, guess again.

As improbable as it may seem, Company A is none other than… BYD, the Chinese private company that quickly became the world’s largest rechargeable battery maker that decided to enter the market for passenger cars and electric vehicles several years ago. On the other hand, Company B, the recipient of the government largesse, is Massachusetts- based A123 Systems. Ironically, both companies received approximately the same amount of investment– at about the same time. BYD received a $230 equity investment from Warren Buffet’s Mid America Corporation in late 2008, while A123 received a $250 million grant from the U.S. Department of Energy in January 2009.

On Monday, September 13, 2010, A123 announced the opening of a large lithium-ion battery factory in Livonia, Michigan. The plant employs 300 workers, and is expected to employ up to 3,000 in several years.
President Barack Obama placed a congratulatory call to A123 executives and Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm. “Thanks to the Recovery Act, you guys are the first American factory to start high-volume production of advanced vehicle batteries,” the President said. “This is about the birth of an entire new industry in America — an industry that’s going to be central to the next generation of cars. And it’s going to allow us to start exporting those cars, making them comfortable, convenient and affordable.”

The central planners in Washington must be feeling pretty good about themselves these days and the way in which they are single-handedly re-shaping the U.S. auto industry. The grant to A123 is part of a total of $1.4 billion of funding that the U.S. government is providing to nine Michigan companies to support advanced battery manufacturing and job training. This comes on top of the Department of Energy’s $465 million loan to Tesla, a maker of high priced electric vehicles, and the $50 billion bailout of General Motors. Now all the planners have to do is hope that these companies can produce products that customers want, and can afford.

Undoubtedly, the thinking on the part of the Obama Administration is that: “If China can use government funds to create national champions, so can we.” What they don’t understand is that this is not the way it works. Admittedly, state-owned banks still make loans to state-owned companies, but these behemoths are not the innovators in China 2010. Instead, hundreds of thousands of entrepreneurial Chinese companies, just like BYD, are driving innovation in the country in industry after industry.

China has obviously studied American economic history. Washington should do the same.

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Banks take over record number of homes in August

NEW YORK | Thu Sep 16, 2010 
 
(Reuters) - A record number of U.S. homeowners lost houses to their banks in August as lenders worked through the backlog of distressed mortgages, real estate data company RealtyTrac said on Thursday.

New default notices decreased at the same time, suggesting that lenders managed the flow of troubled loans and foreclosed properties hitting the market to limit price declines, the company said.

Root problems of high unemployment, wage cuts, negative home equity and restrictive lending practices persist, however, pointing to lingering housing market pain.

RealtyTrac sees a record 1.2 million repossessions this year, up from just under 1 million last year, with more than 3.2 million homes in some stage of foreclosure.

In 2005, before the housing bust, banks took over just about 100,000 houses, according to the Irvine, California-based company.

"It really does look like we're seeing a slowdown of new foreclosures being initiated as part of a means to manage inventory levels on the market," RealtyTrac senior vice president Rick Sharga said in an interview.

Banks foreclosed on 95,364 properties in August, topping the May 2010 record by 2 percent. These repossessions, or real estate owned (REO) homes, jumped 3 percent in the month and 25 percent in the year.

At the same time, a similar amount -- 96,469 homes -- got a default notice. Defaults declined 1 percent from July and 30 percent from August 2009 after peaking at 142,064 properties in April 2009.

It will take about three years to work through the stockpile of distressed housing, Sharga said, resulting in a market that moves sideways.

"I don't think it gets any better really until the end of 2013," he said.
Total foreclosure actions last month, including notice of default, scheduled auction and repossession, were made on a total of 338,836 properties in August, up 4 percent from July and down 5 percent from August 2009.

The number of homes getting at least one notice topped 300,000 for the 18th month in a row.
One in every 381 housing units got a foreclosure filing last month.

Slowing home sales, after buyer tax credits of up to $8,000 ended in April, could tilt more owners toward foreclosure.

"Fewer buyers means it's going to take longer to clear out the distressed inventory, the longer you have that inventory the more price pressure there is on the overall housing market," said Sharga. "The more price pressure, the more homes are in danger of going into foreclosure because they're going to be upside down."

Homeowners that are upside down, or have a mortgage bigger than the home's value, often cannot sell or refinance.

Foreclosure auctions were scheduled for the first time on about 147,000 properties last month, up 9 percent from July and the second highest total in records dating back to April 2005.

Nevada, Florida, Arizona and California had the highest state foreclosure rates in August, with Nevada topping the list for the 44th straight month despite a 24 percent drop in foreclosure actions from a year earlier.

Idaho, Utah, Georgia, Michigan, Illinois and Hawaii were the other states with the highest rates of foreclosure.

The 10 metro areas with the nation's highest foreclosure rates had fewer actions for a second straight month.

"Some markets may have already peaked, but even with the decreased levels of activity they're still running at multiples of national averages," Sharga said. "In some cases it really is a matter of trying to keep inventory levels from overwhelming the local markets."

(Reporting by Lynn Adler, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

US economists oppose imposing punitive measures against China

Nobel Laureate economists on Wednesday urged American politicians to restrain from imposing punitive measures against imports of Chinese goods, calling it both unwise and useless.

"This is crude populism and represents the attempt of the two parties to win voters," said James Heckman, professor of economics at the University of Chicago, in an exclusive interview with Xinhua.

"What I do worry about is that there has been a lot of talking about taxing the Chinese and punishing them," said Heckman on the sidelines of a forum celebrating the opening of University of Chicago Center in Beijing.

The statement comes two days after 93 U.S. lawmakers signed a letter urging Democratic leaders in the House of Representatives to schedule a vote on a bill to get tougher with China.

The bill would allow the U.S. Commerce Department to slap countervailing and anti-dumping duties on "injurious imports from any country that persistently undervalues its currency."

The Chinese currency has seen increased volatility in the trading days since the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, announced on June 19 that it would increase the currency's exchange rate flexibility.

The yuan's central parity against the U.S. dollar has risen by 1.5 percent from the rate of 6.8275 per U.S. dollar, set a day before the PBOC's pledge to increase flexibility.

A more expensive Chinese currency would help, in some sense, but the key problem was in the U.S. economic policies which had proven to be ineffective, said Heckman, who won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 2000.

He said the current difficulties facing the U.S. economy in the form of high unemployment and a staggering deficit mainly stemmed from its own "unwise policies" that finance consumption and practice large tax cuts.

"There is an issue that China and the rest of the world has to be worried about -- How much will America continue to live beyond its means and whether America has the political will to solve the problem?"

He called upon the U.S. leadership to wake up to a deeper understanding of the nature of the deficit problem and look to a much longer-term solution, and deemed the proposed action as pure politics.

"Every serious person in economics said we have to deal with the deficit, but the government has not listened to it," Heckman said.

He said America's soft money policy and its consumption patterns were not sustainable and had to be adjusted, but "We don't even have a serious discussion about the nature of the deficit problem in America."

"It is easy to attack China, and so many people in the US will say it is the Chinese who are responsible for the lack of jobs, but they don't look at the deep structural questions," Heckman said.

"I don't believe that any American with any integrity would advocate this kind of punitive policy toward China, which is pure politics."

Echoing Heckman's words, another Nobel Laureate economist present at the opening ceremony, Gary Becker, said it was the U.S. who should take significant responsibility for its problems.

"The U.S. has a very low savings rate which has contributed in a very important manner to its current difficult situations and the global financial crisis, as well," said Becker, a professor of economics and sociology at the University of Chicago.

Heckman and Becker called for caution, as some economists suggest China sell down its vast holdings of U.S. Treasuries, which makes up some two-thirds of its 2.45 trillion U.S. dollars in international reserves.

"If China dumps a lot of U.S. dollars, that would be unwise, because that would create a currency crisis in the currency market," he said.

Source: Xinhua

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UCLA Anderson Forecast predicts 'very sluggish growth' accompanied by high unemployment

  By Hilary Rehder
 
In its third quarterly report of 2010, the UCLA Anderson Forecast predicts "very sluggish growth" for the foreseeable future as the U.S. economy continues to recover from the recession. As for the California economy, the state is looking at a difficult period ahead as it attempts to regenerate not only the 1.3 million jobs lost during the recession but also create additional jobs needed for new entrants into the job market over the past two-and-a-half years.
 
The National Forecast

In a report titled "The Uncertain Economy," UCLA Anderson Forecast senior economist David Shulman offers two explanations for the ailing national economy. The first is the "balance-sheet hypothesis" put forth by the Forecast nearly two years ago, which is analogous to the work done by economists Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University. These economists noted that recoveries from the bursting of debt-fueled financial bubbles are invariably slow and are associated with high unemployment rates and rising government debt. Given that, Shulman suggests that a quick recovery is not likely.

Shulman also writes that, "the recovery from the balance-sheet recession is being exacerbated by an extraordinary increase in policy uncertainty, which is amplifying the usual economic uncertainties associated with recessions." Simply put, he believes that the nation's businesses are unsure of the implications of their investments — whether new hires or new computers — given the uncertainty surrounding tax, environmental, energy, financial, labor and health care policies.

"At present," Shulman said, "business firms can only make the wildest guesses as to what corporate and individual taxes will be next year, and, for that matter, three years from now what the cost of health care will be, whether or not there will be a revived cap-and-trade policy with respect to or whether the Environmental Protection Agency will step in with regulations of their own absent a statute, and whether it will be easier or more difficult to hedge risks with financial derivatives."

Given these factors, the Forecast expects very sluggish growth accompanied by high unemployment.
"As time passes," Shulman said, "the economy will naturally heal and the policy uncertainties will resolve themselves to allow growth to return to a 3 percent path, causing unemployment to begin a long-awaited downward trajectory. We forecast that these more ebullient trends will become noticeable by 2012."
The Forecast predicts the national unemployment rate will be 9.7 percent by year's end and 9.5 percent in 2011.

The California Forecast

Considering the California economy, UCLA Anderson Forecast senior economist Jerry Nickelsburg writes that "all the evidence suggests that California is ever so slowly coming out of the recession … but slow growth means that while the groundwork for faster growth is being put down, there is not a lot or perceptible change."

The Forecast implies that the weak growth will continue in the absence of any imminent changes in consumer or business behavior. According to the report, the very slow growth period will remain until next year. The recovery from the recession will be driven by education, health care, exports and technology and, to a lesser extent, growth in the battered residential construction sector.

On an annual basis, the expectation is that California employment will contract by -0.7 percent in 2010 and that once employment growth returns in 2011, employment will begin to grow faster than the labor force, at a 1.9 percent rate, and the unemployment rate will begin to fall.

Real personal income growth is forecast to be 0.6 percent in 2010, 2.2 percent in 2001, and 4.1 percent in 2012. The unemployment rate — currently at its high point of 12.6 percent — is expected to fall slowly through the balance of 2010 and average 12.2 percent for the year. The won't fall below double digits until 2012.

More information: http://uclaforecast.com/
Provided by University of California Los Angeles (news : web)

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Boeing subsidies should be withdrawn says WTO

Boeing 787 Dreamliner  
Boeing has always said that all US support was above board
 
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has ordered more than $20bn (£13bn) in US government subsidies should be withdrawn from Boeing, according to agency reports.

A confidential interim report released on Wednesday is said to back European complaints over $17bn in research contracts from Nasa and the Pentagon.

Another $4bn tax breaks came from Washington state.
The US says there are a "number of inaccuracies" in press reports.

Nefeterius McPherson, a spokeswoman for the US Trade Representative' s Office told the BBC: "The report is confidential, so I can't speak about the contents."

The WTO report on Boeing was prompted by complaints from the European Union, which argued that Boeing was being given support that was anti-competitive.

European Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht said the report backed the EU's case: "Some of the findings of the WTO Panel Report on subsidies to Boeing have already been leaked and commented upon. I would like to limit myself to saying that the analysis conducted appeared very thorough and its conclusions support the EU's view."

The EU has itself fallen foul of the WTO.

Earlier this year, the organisation ruled that the EU paid illegal subsidies to the European firm, EADS, the parent company of Boeing's arch-rival Airbus.

The acrimonious tit-for-tat spat has dragged on for almost six years. Brussels brought its case to the WTO in October 2004 - on the same day that Washington complained about EU subsidies to Airbus.
Wednesday's WTO report is said to have found the Boeing aid "actionable" and has called for it to be withdrawn but has stopped short of labelling the state incentives "prohibited," which would require faster remedies, according to sources. 

The EU is appealing against the earlier decision by the WTO that it itself was guilty of giving EADS illegal subsidies in the form of support for the A380 plane.

It added that it would also contest the ruling that there had been a causal link between support to Airbus and adverse effects to Boeing.

Truce?
 
Some analysts have said that such an agreement would be in the best interests of both companies - allowing them to focus instead on developing their aircraft.

Earlier, an Airbus spokeswoman said the two rivals may negotiate a settlement.

Mr De Gucht said more time was needed to absorb the WTO's report, but that he believed "even more strongly than before that the question of subsidies to aircraft manufacturers can be settled only by way of negotiations".

Ms McPherson said the US had been happy to hold talks for some years: "We were interested six years ago. We were interested four years ago. We were interested two years ago. And we're still interested."

Violation claim
 
The EU complaint accused Washington of funnelling subsidies to civil aviation through military research funds.
Boeing, the maker of the long-delayed 787 Dreamliner, insisted that all US support was above board.

In a statement ahead of the WTO's preliminary decision, it said none of Washington's actions had "the market-distorting impact of launch aid nor even approach the sheer scale of European subsidy practices".

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 Aerospace and Defence

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The European plane-maker Airbus is calling for 'peace talks' with its American rival Boeing, following the latest development in their trade dispute.

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Lenovo's Thoughtful ThinkPad Is a Near-Perfect Machine

Lenovo's Thoughtful ThinkPad Is a Near-Perfect Machine


$1,985  •  thinkpad.com
9 out of 10

At the top of Lenovo's product heap is the ThinkPad line. The top of the ThinkPad line is the T-series. And the top of the T-series, even in Lenovo's own estimation, is the T410s.

Few laptops can be all things to all people, but the ThinkPad T410s comes dangerously close.

First there's the screen: The 14.1-inch laptop offers improved resolution, at 1440 x 900 pixels, and a display so bright it should come with sunscreen. (Seriously, it's not just the brightest notebook display in our records, it's brighter than some desktop monitors.)

Specs leave nothing to complain about: 2.4-GHz Core i5 chip, 4-GB RAM, an Nvidia NVS 3100M graphics processor, and the aforementioned bad-ass screen. Only the 128-GB SSD hard drive is perplexing: Either up it to a proper 256 GB or forgo SSD for a big, regular hard drive, Lenovo.

Space concerns aside, the benchmarks are record-breaking. The T410s had the highest numbers on general performance apps among anything we've ever tested, and it's no slouch in the gaming department, too: While short of our all-time highs, for a business machine, it's more than graphics capable. And all of this comes in a perfectly thin, 3.9-pound package, which earns it yet another record by making it the lightest 14-inch laptop we've tested, as well.

Naturally, few ThinkPads come at a discount, and the $1,985 price tag is likely too steep for most (try subbing that HD in lieu of the SSD to trim the cost a bit), but our sole operational complaint is one of battery life. That ultra-bright screen clearly exacts its toll on your power cell, with the T410s turning in just 83 minutes of DVD playback while operating at full brightness. It may not be able to make it through back-to-back episodes of Mad Men, but you'll certainly love it while it's running.

WIRED A multiple record-breaker: Top performance and brightest screen among all laptops we've seen. Very slim and extremely lightweight. Rock-solid ThinkPad keyboard with well-thought-out controls. Love the textured touchpad. Sturdy as a granite pillar anchored in Dolomite.

TIRED Battery life needs a serious boost. Expensive. No HDMI connector.
  • Manufacturer: Lenovo
  • Price: $1,985 (as tested) 
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