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Saturday, 11 September 2010

U.S. faces "Americanization" of terror threat

A man purported to be Faisal Shahzad is seen in this Al Arabiya television footage released to Reuters TV on July 14, 2010. REUTERS/Al Arabiya via Reuters TV/Handout
WASHINGTON | Fri Sep 10, 2010 6:11pm EDT
 
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Nine years after the September 11 attacks, the United States faces a growing threat from home-grown insurgents and an "Americanization" of al Qaeda leadership, according to a report released on Friday.

Former heads of the 9/11 Commission that studied the 2001 attacks on New York and Washington presented the 43-page study, describing it as a wake-up call about the radicalization of Muslims in the United States and the changing strategy of al Qaeda and its allies.

"The threat that the U.S. is facing is different than it was nine years ago," said the report, released by the Washington-based Bipartisan Policy Center.

"The U.S. is arguably now little different from Europe in terms of having a domestic terrorist problem involving immigrant and indigenous Muslims as well as converts to Islam."

The report comes at a sensitive time for the United States.

President Barack Obama made a plea for religious tolerance on Friday as passions simmered over a Florida Christian preacher's threat to burn copies of the Koran, Islam's holy book, and plans to build an Islamic cultural center and mosque near the so-called Ground Zero site in New York City.

U.S. officials warn such cases could lead to a recruiting bonanza for al Qaeda.

The report said al Qaeda and its affiliates in Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen had minimally established an "embryonic" recruitment infrastructure in the United States.

It pointed to convictions last year of at least 43 American citizens or residents aligned with militant ideology, and high-profile cases of recruits who went abroad for training.

"In the past year alone the United States has seen affluent suburban Americans and the progeny of hard-working immigrants gravitate to terrorism," the report said. "There seems no longer any clear profile of a terrorist."

Americans were also increasingly forming part of the leadership of al Qaeda and its allies. It cited the cases of:
* U.S.-born Muslim cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, who is now one of the top figures in al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. He is linked to the failed attempt to blow up a passenger plane over Detroit on Christmas Day 2009 as well as a deadly shooting spree at Fort Hood military base in Texas a month earlier.

* Adnan al-Shukrijumah, a Saudi-born operative who grew up in Brooklyn and Florida, who is considered to be a senior leader of al Qaeda's external operations.

* Chicagoan David Headley, who played a role in scoping out targets for the 2008 Mumbai attacks on behalf of Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba.

"There is little precedent for the high-level operational roles that Americans are currently playing in al Qaeda and affiliated groups," the report said.

SMALLER SCALE ATTACKS

Much of the report highlights fears that U.S. intelligence officials have been flagging for years, including the rising prominence of al-Awlaki and other American recruits.

The Obama administration has authorized operations to kill or capture Awlaki and a secret CIA memo, leaked to the media last month, spoke extensively about how U.S. citizens were of great value to terrorist groups.

American intelligence officials also have agreed with another key point in the report that sees an increased risk of small-scale attacks on hard-to-protect U.S. targets.

In the wake of the September 11 attacks, which killed nearly 3,000 people, the report said the intelligence community had wrongly believed that al Qaeda was intent on "matching or besting the loss of life and destruction" it had caused.

It is now clear that militants see operational value in conducting more frequent and less sophisticated attacks, which are harder to detect and require less high level coordination.

"American officials and the wider public should realize that, by the law of averages, al Qaeda or an affiliate will succeed in getting some kind of attack through in the next years," said the report.

Even the Pakistani-born American Faisal Shahzad's failed attempt to set off a car bomb in Times Square in May was extremely effective from a propaganda standpoint, given the enormous amount of media coverage it received.

"The best response (to an attack) would be to demonstrate that we as a society are resilient and are not being intimidated by such actions," the report said.

(Editing by Christopher Wilson)
Comments

Sep 10, 2010 7:51pm EDT
Yes. We will show them that we will not be intimidated. We will continue immigrating muslims by the thousands, and we will leave them alone until they blow us up, and then we will get them. After that, we will wait until they blow us up again ad infinitum. See how unintimidated we are? We will even smile while our heads are being sawn off. It is the American Way!
cecil91 Report As Abusive
 
 
Sep 10, 2010 9:51pm EDT
Don’t they understand that the US thrives on violence and war, each attack emboldens the warhawks. We make more bombs kill more people, create more terrorists. The only way to stop our war machine is to quit fueling it.

Friday, 10 September 2010

UK Spending watchdog warns over academies' finances


pupils  
The study said many academies were "performing impressively"
 
The rapid expansion of England's academies programme risks being poor value for money, the spending watchdog has warned.
With one in four existing academies needing extra financial help, the National Audit Office said much tighter monitoring was needed.

It also found poorer pupils did less well in academies than in regular state schools.
The government said academies performed well and that it was reducing risks.

The NAO said these state-funded, privately-run schools begun in disadvantaged areas by Labour had performed impressively in their efforts on improving attainment.

But since coming to power, the coalition government has encouraged schools rated outstanding by Ofsted to apply for academy status, saying they would be fast-tracked.

'Bailouts' 

Many have been tempted to express an interest by the promise of more money and greater freedoms.

Academies operate outside of local authority control, often with business-based sponsors, and have greater financial freedom than regular state schools, which are audited by their local council partners.

The NAO report found academies were not only spending significantly more per head of pupil, but that one in four were likely to require extra financial support.

And the agency that now monitors them, the Young People's Learning Agency, is expecting to pay £8.5m to bail 10 of them out of financial difficulties.

Meanwhile, one in 20 of open academies are forecasting deficits.
The NAO also pointed out that in 2007-8 and 2008-9, there were half as many senior academy staff on salaries of more than £80,000.

The department had already recovered £4.1m in overpayments from academies because of an over-estimation of pupil numbers.

The NAO said: "The expansion of the programme increases the scale of risks to value for money - particularly in the areas of financial stability, governance and management capacity.

"With greater numbers of academies opening in recent years, the department's capacity to administer and monitor the programme has been stretched particularly, as funding is administered on an individual basis."
It also found potential conflicts of interests over academy sponsors providing services to the school they sponsor.

A quarter of academies surveyed said their sponsor was providing paid services.
The study warned that academies' performance to date was not an "accurate predictor" of how the model would perform when generalised over a wider range of schools.

Amyas Morse, head of the National Audit Office, said: "Existing academies have been primarily about school improvement in deprived areas, while new academies will often be operating in very different educational and social settings."

Real power
  There was a need to re-state the aims of the new-style academies programme so that its performance could be measured against them.

The report also found that children from disadvantaged homes were doing slightly less well in academies than those in regular state schools.

The report suggested it was pupils from more advantaged backgrounds who were driving the fast-improving results at academies.

But Education Secretary Michael Gove said the report underlined the fact that academies programme was working well.

"We have already taken prompt action on the NAO recommendations, as we strive to strengthen the programme even further.

"The academies programme is helping children from all backgrounds to get a better education, that is why we are allowing more schools to become academies, and giving real power and autonomy back to schools and teachers."

Outstanding sponsorship 
  Chair of the Public Accounts Committee Margaret Hodge said: "Where schools are given more freedom, we need to know they are using it well.

"We will want to be assured that, as the programme is expanded, the controls to provide sound financial management and good governance are firmly in place.

"The department faces major challenges as it takes over from local government the responsibility for directly funding many more schools.

"We will want to know that it has the capacity to meet these challenges.
She added that it was is telling that some of the substantial sums of money originally promised by academy sponsors were yet to be collected.

Shadow education secretary Ed Balls said the new government's programme was a "complete distortion" of Labour's successful policy to turn around struggling schools.

"Michael Gove's rush to turn schools with more advantaged intakes and which are already thriving into academies, rather than under-performing schools in more deprived areas, is not only a perversion of a successful policy but risks becoming an expensive failure."

“Start Quote

Where schools are given more freedom, we need to know they are using it well”
End Quote Margaret Hodge Chair of public accounts committee
 
The NAO said: "The expansion of the programme increases the scale of risks to value for money - particularly in the areas of financial stability, governance and management capacity.
"With greater numbers of academies opening in recent years, the department's capacity to administer and monitor the programme has been stretched particularly, as funding is administered on an individual basis."
It also found potential conflicts of interests over academy sponsors providing services to the school they sponsor.

A quarter of academies surveyed said their sponsor was providing paid services.
The study warned that academies' performance to date was not an "accurate predictor" of how the model would perform when generalised over a wider range of schools.

Amyas Morse, head of the National Audit Office, said: "Existing academies have been primarily about school improvement in deprived areas, while new academies will often be operating in very different educational and social settings."

Real power There was a need to re-state the aims of the new-style academies programme so that its performance could be measured against them.

The report also found that children from disadvantaged homes were doing slightly less well in academies than those in regular state schools.

The report suggested it was pupils from more advantaged backgrounds who were driving the fast-improving results at academies.

But Education Secretary Michael Gove said the report underlined the fact that academies programme was working well.

"We have already taken prompt action on the NAO recommendations, as we strive to strengthen the programme even further.

"The academies programme is helping children from all backgrounds to get a better education, that is why we are allowing more schools to become academies, and giving real power and autonomy back to schools and teachers."

Outstanding sponsorship Chair of the Public Accounts Committee Margaret Hodge said: "Where schools are given more freedom, we need to know they are using it well.

"We will want to be assured that, as the programme is expanded, the controls to provide sound financial management and good governance are firmly in place.

"The department faces major challenges as it takes over from local government the responsibility for directly funding many more schools.

"We will want to know that it has the capacity to meet these challenges.
She added that it was is telling that some of the substantial sums of money originally promised by academy sponsors were yet to be collected.

Shadow education secretary Ed Balls said the new government's programme was a "complete distortion" of Labour's successful policy to turn around struggling schools.

"Michael Gove's rush to turn schools with more advantaged intakes and which are already thriving into academies, rather than under-performing schools in more deprived areas, is not only a perversion of a successful policy but risks becoming an expensive failure."

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Thursday, 9 September 2010

Outside the Box: To know China, see the world through its eyes

Speaking Chinese without an American accent

Commentary: To know China, see the world through its eyes 

By Andrew Leckey 

PHOENIX, Ariz. (MarketWatch) -- Will the heavy national debt load of the U.S. turn it into another Greece? Could the U.S. cope if it was surpassed by China as the world's largest economy? Is the U.S. increasingly becoming a protectionist country? 

Those sound like loaded questions, yet they're fair game for an American interviewed on Chinese television, as I have been more than a dozen times in the past couple of years. You are responding on Chinese soil, after all, where the U.S. is a subject of intense analysis and criticism -- just as China is in the U.S.


Investors are bulllish about Brazil elections

Both candidates in Brazil's presidential election in October are regarded as safe bets for investors, according to Joe Harper of Explorador Capital, who says the markets are expecting continuity in the change in leadership. Claudia Assis reports.

Topics such as the value of the yuan and trade relations ignite intense feelings because economic growth, investment potential and national pride are at stake. Such issues are more politically demanding than when a question is asked about something less China-U.S.-centric, such as Russia's economy or BP's management.

It seems strange to label as emerging a nation with so many centuries of dynasties behind it, but global economic power is relatively new in this nation where ancient structures coexist with skyscrapers. As China chooses its own course, developed nations are suspected of conspiring to hold it back, whether through organizations such as the G20 or the policies of individual nations.

Volatility of Chinese markets is sure to continue, impacting the world just as it is affected by other markets. China's hot economy and real estate market have likely come too far, too fast, and cycles are unavoidable.
Nonetheless, the transition of China from a low-cost assembler of exports to the West to a major consumer of products and services and a seller of products to the rising middle class throughout Asia is ahead.

This likely will depend less on developed markets and more on emerging economies that need consumer staples, information technology and automobiles. There will be dramatic growth, despite the ongoing ideological, trade, currency, political and environmental differences between China and the U.S.

What China wants

Whether it involves investing, business dealings or debate, dealing with China requires mutual respect:
• Many Chinese take personally the criticism of government policy. While we are often loudly critical of our government, they consider China one entity that includes them. Outsiders criticizing it are, in effect, disrespecting the Chinese people and heritage. Harmony is important. Stick to facts when discussing issues of conflict and make sure your points stand on their own merit, which is not a bad idea no matter what the country.

• They know more about us than we know about them. Our clothes and technology were made in China, but our information is limited to news reports. They see our movies, follow the NBA, dine at KFC and Starbucks, buy Buicks and display posters of American actors and athletes in stores. They celebrate Christmas big-time, though not the religious part. Yet that's hardly a clear picture of America or Americans.

• Negative quotes about China from U.S. politicians are taken seriously by the Chinese, much as U.S. sports coaches tack negative quotes from rivals on locker room bulletin boards. The fact that many in Congress intentionally make statements to appeal to constituents is not always evident to the Chinese.

• When significant issues are brought up, Chinese of all ages point out that we should realize they've come a long way in a short period of time, even if where they're headed isn't totally mapped out. Bridging the gap between wealthiest and poorest will be one of the biggest economic tasks.

• Young Chinese are under pressure from country and parents to succeed, far more than U.S. young people. Chinese parents who grew up under a different economic system tell children to study and work harder. The one-child rule put added pressure on the young to succeed. Shopping malls throughout China are crowded primarily with those under age 30, indication of the younger generation's financial empowerment.

• And yes, the Chinese generally do prefer to deal with people they've gotten to know well. This isn't such a rare concept in any country, but friendships definitely build bonds that turn to business and shared information in China. Drive-by meetings won't accomplish much, while repeat visits are valued.

Americans these days study China much as they studied Japan 20 years ago -- with fear and a sense of urgency that we are about to be overtaken economically. I leave you with one last non-economic question posed to me by the Chinese host on a special talk show honoring legendary television news anchor Walter Cronkite:

Why was there no journalist of Walter Cronkite's stature in the U.S. who was able to draw to an end the war in Iraq as Cronkite did in Vietnam?

Sounds like a loaded question. But for an American interviewed in China, turnabout is fair play. After all, I always have my own set of loaded questions to ask the Chinese.

Andrew Leckey is president of the Donald W. Reynolds National Center for Business Journalism in Phoenix, and has been a frequent guest on China Central Television (CCTV) interview programs in Beijing.

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IPTV - Astro TV conducting trials with Time dotCom; Mobile Telcos Price War?

Astro TV conducting IPTV trials with Time dotCom

By B.K. SIDHU
bksidhu@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: With Telekom Malaysia Bhd (TM) venturing into the broadcasting business with its IPTV (internet protocol TV) offering, Astro TV is not about to let any of its market share slip by without a fight.

It is learnt that Astro TV is conducting trials for its IPTV offering in Mont Kiara by riding on Time dotCom Bhd’s (TDC) fibre optic fast-speed network.

Astro TV needs an IPTV platform and if it were to wait till sister company Maxis Communications Bhd completes its network build-up, that may well give TM an edge in some places.

Hence, the trials with TDC which began at the end of July involving about 100 users.

Sources said this was a technical trial for the Astro b.yond to determine if the network was able to carry enough video content at fast speed. TDC is providing the GPON infrastructure for the trials.

A GPON access network not only enables telcos to build and support video services, but provides the ability to scale the network to deliver any bandwidth-hungry services such as HDTV (high definition TV) and VOD (video on demand), an IP-based broadband video service.

Astro needs a minimum of 15-20 megabits per second (Mbps) for content delivery and TDC’s network can provide up to 100Mbps. Sources said trial users were able to watch all of Astro’s programmes in HD and 3D quality.

The trials make TDC a potential contender for access to Astro besides Maxis. However, since TDC only focuses on multi-dwellings such as condominiums and apartments blocks, its reach may be limited. TDC finds it too costly to focus on fibre to the home as done by TM.

TM is bundling IPTV with its high-speed broadband service known as Unifi. But content will remain the differentiating factor in the IPTV business. For now, Astro has rights to loads of content but don’t underestimate TM as it is tying to link up with a lot of content providers to make its IPTV proposition appealing.

Maxis, on the other hand, is working overtime to get a fast-speed Internet network up. It has appointed Huawei as the exclusive supplier for the next generation network. Maxis said the job would also include the building and managing of a full-service Fibre To The X network using GPON technologies.

Maxis has also conducted trails for IPTV involving 50-odd users during the recent World Cup.
Whether Astro will need more than one player to deliver its IPTV content is unclear but Maxis certainly is building a fibre optic network in its quest to become a quad player and it will have to rely on content from Astro.

ASTRO :  [Stock Watch]  [News]
TM :  [Stock Watch]  [News]
TIMECOM : [Stock Watch] [News

Analysts don't expect lower prices for mobile phone services

By LEONG HUNG YEE
hungyee@thestar.com.my

Price war unlikely but telcos are expected to compete on device offerings, say analysts

PETALING JAYA: While cellular companies may have posted rosy profits during the latest reporting season, analysts say the second half will not be an easy period for them.

Analysts do not expect an all-out price war between telcos but they do see competition heating up on device offerings such as smartphones.

“Both DiGi.Com Bhd and Maxis Bhd will be offering Apple Inc’s iPhone 4 soon. Pricing details have yet to be revealed but consumers will always opt for the best bargain,” an analyst said, adding that the average revenue per user (ARPU) and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin for telcos would remain under pressure.

DiGi had earlier cautioned that its EBITDA margin for 2010 might be pressured due to higher level of handset subsidies.

“Both DiGi.Com Bhd and Maxis Bhd will be offering Apple Inc’s iPhone 4 soon. Pricing details have yet to be revealed but consumers will always opt for the best bargain,” an analyst said. Pic shows Apple iPhone 4 on display at the registration desk at the headquarters of KT in Seoul on Monday. Apple’s newest smartphone will be officially released to Korean consumers on Friday. — Reuters
 
AmResearch Sdn Bhd said that despite a recent reduction in interconnection fees to 5 sen from 8 sen previously, the competitive landscape between telcos remained status quo. “There is yet to be a full-fledged price war,” it said.

The research house said ARPU continued to decline on a blended basis and reckoned that ARPU was almost reaching saturation point.

Within the postpaid segment, AmResearch said ARPU increased 2% to 4% in all three companies in line with the growth recorded in usage minutes.

“Voice is taking a backseat to non-voice, parallel to other developed countries. This trend should persist to a saturated level, where voice usage would hit its floor – as observed in the fixed line segment – within the next two to three years,” it said.

AmResearch said all three mobile companies were recording significant growth in broadband usage, with Celcom Axiata Bhd leading with more than 50% market share followed by Maxis (35%) and DiGi (15%).

The research house said the telecommunications sector was still undervalued, with enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EV/EBITDA) ranging between 5.42 times and 8.11 times. It said regional peers were valued at an EV/EBITDA of at least 9 times.

An analyst said the possible slowdown in the second half could lead to a cut in consumer spending.
However, the analyst said he was still confident about the industry’s outlook given the number of new mobile devices being introduced into the market.

He expects non-voice revenues from wireless broadband and data value-added services, including mobile Internet, messaging and content services, to drive growth for telcos moving forward.

The analyst said his top pick was Axiata Group Bhd as it “has a good regional story with presence in 10 countries and good-performing assets in Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.”

Wednesday, 8 September 2010

Brain drain, education,racism

Brain drain gains momentum

ZIYING'S BRUSH

Malaysia’s brain drain is not limited to adults as increasing numbers of children are also leaving the country.

RECENT reports on the two school heads accused of racist slurs bring to mind a question that an expatriate, newly arrived in Malaysia, posed to me. “Why,” she asked, “do Malaysian parents send their children away?”

I was momentarily stumped. And then I realised she was right. So many people send their children overseas when they reach a certain age, sometimes right after primary school, or more often, after third year secondary school. Their kids are in Singapore, Australia, Britain – anywhere but here at home, and the situation has become so normal it didn’t strike me as strange.

It is said that some half a million Malaysians have left the country to work or live abroad and the papers these days are full of reports on the great Malaysian brain drain. Much has been written on the whys and wherefores, with much hand-wringing over how to get these brains back.

Preparing for change: Sweeping reforms are being implemented in schools across China to meet the needs of the next stage of the country’s development.
 
All the while, under the radar, children whose families can afford it continue to leave. After finishing secondary school overseas, they attend university. Chances are, unlike a decade or two ago, many won’t come back. It seems young brains, too, are draining away.

Malaysia likes to promote itself as a centre of educational excellence. So why is this happening, and is there a reality gap somewhere?

The two school principals’ racist remarks just seem the tip of the iceberg.

Racism is at the root of these ridiculous comments but I would venture a guess that ignorance also plays a role. After all, I was told by friends that history textbooks have been revised to exclude much of world and important segments of local history. I hope this is not true but from what I have seen at the National Museum (Muzium Negara), I find that perfectly believable. If a national repository can ignore the seminal role played by one-third of the country’s population – i.e. the Chinese and Indian minority ethnic groups – then this really comes as no surprise.

Given this one-sided view of national history, should anyone be surprised that a school head allegedly called certain ethnic groups “passengers”? Clearly, that also reflects the shortcomings in their own education and poor training as well as the quality of some Malaysian schools. Being educators, they should know better but with the shrill racist and religious rhetoric of certain extremist political factions, it should not surprise anyone if there are more who think that way.

Grooming leaders: Hawaii’s Punahou School has excellent facilities and teachers, and a curriculum that fosters creativity. It is the alma mater of President Obama and well-known business leaders .
 
Recently there have been debates on whether the two crucial subjects of Maths and Science should be taught in English or Bahasa Malaysia. Looking around Asia, it is obvious that developed nations like Japan and South Korea do not teach in English and neither do rapidly developing countries like China. Yet they have surpassed Malaysia in so many ways. Rather than the language of instruction, it is ultimately the quality of the syllabus, the materials, the teachers and the teaching that make a difference.

Given the situation, it is no wonder that parents are sending their children overseas at an early age or even emigrating with them. Away, the children can have an opportunity to develop their full potential in a meritocratic system that rewards ability and results without the suffocating burden of political and ethnic strictures.

Outside Malaysia’s borders is a competitive, knowledge-driven world where there are no protective mantles and only the fit will survive. One need not look far to see what is happening. In economic powerhouse China, for example, competition is part and parcel of the national fabric.

Meritocracy has been practised since the first imperial (civil service) examinations over 2,000 years ago, and is still practised through assessments like the annual gaokao university entrance exam. And the education system is currently being fine-tuned by a series of sweeping reforms to meet the country’s future needs.

As for attracting Malaysians back from overseas, I shall never forget what a potential employer in a listed Malaysian company told me when I applied for a job after several years working with a multinational in the Asian region. He glanced at my resume and said: “In Malaysia, it is not what you know, but who you know that counts.” Later, at the Human Resources department, I discovered for the very first time my overseas education and American university degrees were a negative as “things are different in Malaysia”.

Meanwhile, young and not-so-young human capital are continuing to leave Malaysia, the country is unable to produce enough engineers, managers and other professionals to make a difference and FDI has fallen through the bottom. What is needed now is the courage to step out of the comfort zone and make the changes that are so long overdue – or brain gain will just remain wishful thinking.

This column will take a break until early November. Ziying can be reached at ziyingster@gmail.com.


Racism Malaysia NAH!!! ... 

thestaronline 

Housing troubles are resurfacing

I'll regret saying it but housing troubles are resurfacing

Over the years the housing market has been one of my favourite subjects – and one that has provided rich pickings for my critics. It is time to face their ire again.

Wishful thinking? Mortgage approvals have been low all year.
Wishful thinking? Mortgage approvals have been low all year.
 
Last week's Nationwide house price figures showed a second successive monthly fall, this time of 0.9pc. What's more, this data followed other signs of weakness. Mortgage approvals for house purchase have been low all year, while the RICS new buyer enquiries balance has been negative for the past two months. Could the market be on the turn?

Lower house prices would make a lot of economic sense. In the UK, as in the US, a surge in house prices was right at the centre of the wider economic boom which ultimately ended in the financial crisis. 

Since then, most asset markets have undergone a major adjustment. In the US, even though the housing market never got as overvalued as ours did, house prices fell by 32pc. In the UK commercial property prices fell by about 45pc. Equities fell by about 50pc, and still stand 20pc below their peak. The pound fell by about 25pc. Although average UK house prices initially fell by 20pc, they then recovered and currently stand only about 10pc below their highs. So the UK housing market sticks out like a sore thumb.
Moreover, as a multiple of earnings, average house prices are, at 5.2, way above the long-term average of 3.7. Admittedly, this indicator has been flashing red for ages. And measures of so-called affordability – the ratio of mortgage payments to take-home pay – show no sign of undue strain. Mind you, if housing is not affordable when official interest rates are at virtually zero then when will it be? My view is that official interest rates will stay at this level for ages. But at some point they will go up to something like 5pc, probably taking mortgage rates to about 7pc. At current prices, how affordable would housing be then? In any case, many potential buyers find that even if they can afford the mortgage payments they cannot save enough to meet the now larger deposit requirements.

Nevertheless, movements in house prices need a catalyst. There are a few candidates. Mortgage availability is getting tighter as lenders wake up to the risks, face closer regulation and anticipate the imminent expiry of the Bank of England's special liquidity scheme.

Meanwhile, the pressure on personal finances is set to intensify as the rate of increase of average earnings edges down, higher taxes reduce disposable income and job losses in the public sector both reduce total personal incomes and erode confidence about job security. At the top of the market in London, support from foreign buying in the wake of sterling's collapse has softened as sterling has recovered. The higher rate of income tax and continued doubts about the outlook for the City point in the same direction.

That said, there are no certainties. The housing market has seen false dusks before. This could be another one. Because of low interest rates, it is possible the market will hold these levels and that housing is eventually returned to reasonable value by the continual upward march of salaries, rents and the general price level. But I doubt it. The issue is whether the market falls sooner or later.

So bring on the ire. (You know who you are!) Doubtless I shall soon be told that there is no such thing as "the" housing market but rather umpteen micro markets, or that I have forgotten about supply and demand. (A pretty bruising criticism to an economist.) Or that I have ignored the fact that we are a small island, that we don't build enough houses and that Aunt Mabel is set to remain in her three bedroomed semi, despite having a gammy leg etc.

Let me say that the average level of house prices is determined by the balance of supply and demand. But the supply is the stock of houses, and that stock does not change much from year to year. So movements in prices from one year to the next are principally caused by shifts in demand. And demand does not mean the airy aspiration to live somewhere nice, or the "need" for housing, neither of which has any economic content. Rather, it means the willingness and ability to pay the going price.

Ability is affected by income, interest rates and the availability of credit. Willingness is affected by many things but one of them is what people think will happen to prices in future. Like other asset markets, therefore, housing is subject to a substantial speculative influence. If prices are expected to fall then much "demand" which was present when prices were expected to rise will evaporate. I suspect that both the ability and the willingness are about to fall.

roger.bootle@capitaleconomics.com
Roger Bootle is managing
director of Capital Economics
and economic adviser to Deloitte

Tuesday, 7 September 2010

The brain speaks: Scientists decode words from brain signals

The brain speaks

Enlarge

This magnetic resonance image (MRI) of an epileptic patient's brain is superimposed with the locations of two kinds of electrodes: conventional ECoG electrodes (yellow) to help locate the source of his seizures so surgeons could operate to prevent them, and two grids (red) of 16 experimental microECoG electrodes used to read speech signals from the brain. University of Utah scientists used the microelectrodes to translate brain signals into words -- a step toward devices that would let severely paralyzed people speak. Credit: Kai Miller, University of Washington.


In an early step toward letting severely paralyzed people speak with their thoughts, University of Utah researchers translated brain signals into words using two grids of 16 microelectrodes implanted beneath the skull but atop the brain.

"We have been able to decode spoken using only signals from the brain with a device that has promise for long-term use in paralyzed patients who cannot now speak," says Bradley Greger, an assistant professor of .

Because the method needs much more improvement and involves placing electrodes on the brain, he expects it will be a few years before clinical trials on paralyzed people who cannot speak due to so-called "locked-in syndrome."

The 's September issue is publishing Greger's study showing the feasibility of translating brain signals into computer-spoken words.

The University of Utah research team placed grids of tiny microelectrodes over speech centers in the brain of a volunteer with severe . The man already had a craniotomy - temporary partial skull removal - so doctors could place larger, conventional electrodes to locate the source of his seizures and surgically stop them.

Using the experimental microelectrodes, the scientists recorded brain signals as the patient repeatedly read each of 10 words that might be useful to a paralyzed person: yes, no, hot, cold, hungry, thirsty, hello, goodbye, more and less.

Later, they tried figuring out which brain signals represented each of the 10 words. When they compared any two brain signals - such as those generated when the man said the words "yes" and "no" - they were able to distinguish brain signals for each word 76 percent to 90 percent of the time.

When they examined all 10 brain signal patterns at once, they were able to pick out the correct word any one signal represented only 28 percent to 48 percent of the time - better than chance (which would have been 10 percent) but not good enough for a device to translate a paralyzed person's thoughts into words spoken by a computer.

"This is proof of concept," Greger says, "We've proven these signals can tell you what the person is saying well above chance. But we need to be able to do more words with more accuracy before it is something a patient really might find useful."

The brain speaks: Scientists decode words from brain signals
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This photo shows two kinds of electrodes sitting atop a severely epileptic patient's brain after part of his skull was removed temporarily. The larger, numbered, button-like electrodes are ECoGs used by surgeons to locate and then remove brain areas responsible for severe epileptic seizures. While the patient had to undergo that procedure, he volunteered to let researchers place two small grids -- each with 16 tiny "microECoG" electrodes -- over two brain areas responsible for speech. These grids are at the end of the green and orange wire bundles, and the grids are represented by two sets of 16 white dots since the actual grids cannot be seen easily in the photo. University of Utah scientists used the microelectrodes to translate speech-related brain signals into actual words -- a step toward future machines to allow severely paralyzed people to speak. Credit: University of Utah Department of Neurosurgery.

People who eventually could benefit from a wireless device that converts thoughts into computer-spoken spoken words include those paralyzed by stroke, Lou Gehrig's disease and trauma, Greger says. People who are now "locked in" often communicate with any movement they can make - blinking an eye or moving a hand slightly - to arduously pick letters or words from a list.
University of Utah colleagues who conducted the study with Greger included electrical engineers Spencer Kellis, a doctoral student, and Richard Brown, dean of the College of Engineering; and Paul House, an assistant professor of neurosurgery. Another coauthor was Kai Miller, a neuroscientist at the University of Washington in Seattle.

The research was funded by the National Institutes of Health, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the University of Utah Research Foundation and the National Science Foundation.

Nonpenetrating Microelectrodes Read Brain's Speech Signals

The study used a new kind of nonpenetrating microelectrode that sits on the brain without poking into it. These electrodes are known as microECoGs because they are a small version of the much larger electrodes used for electrocorticography, or ECoG, developed a half century ago.

For patients with severe epileptic seizures uncontrolled by medication, surgeons remove part of the skull and place a silicone mat containing ECoG electrodes over the brain for days to weeks while the cranium is held in place but not reattached. The button-sized ECoG electrodes don't penetrate the brain but detect abnormal electrical activity and allow surgeons to locate and remove a small portion of the brain causing the seizures.
Last year, Greger and colleagues published a study showing the much smaller microECoG electrodes could "read" brain signals controlling arm movements. One of the epileptic patients involved in that study also volunteered for the new study.

Because the microelectrodes do not penetrate brain matter, they are considered safe to place on speech areas of the brain - something that cannot be done with penetrating electrodes that have been used in experimental devices to help paralyzed people control a computer cursor or an artificial arm.

EEG electrodes used on the skull to record brain waves are too big and record too many brain signals to be used easily for decoding speech signals from paralyzed people.

Translating Nerve Signals into Words

In the new study, the microelectrodes were used to detect weak electrical signals from the brain generated by a few thousand neurons or nerve cells.

Each of two grids with 16 microECoGs spaced 1 millimeter (about one-25th of an inch) apart, was placed over one of two speech areas of the brain: First, the facial motor cortex, which controls movements of the mouth, lips, tongue and face - basically the muscles involved in speaking. Second, Wernicke's area, a little understood part of the human brain tied to language comprehension and understanding.

The study was conducted during one-hour sessions on four consecutive days. Researchers told the epilepsy patient to repeat one of the 10 words each time they pointed at the patient. Brain signals were recorded via the two grids of microelectrodes. Each of the 10 words was repeated from 31 to 96 times, depending on how tired the patient was.

The brain speaks: Scientists decode words from brain signals
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An array of 16 microelectrodes -- known as a microECoG grid -- is arranged in a four-by-four array and shown next to a US quarter-dollar coin with a Utah state design on its "tail" side. University of Utah researchers placed two such microelectrode grids over speech areas of a patient's brain and used them to decode brain signals into words. The technology someday might help severely paralyzed patients "speak" with their thoughts, which would be converted into a computerized voice. Credit: Spencer Kellis, University of Utah

Then the researchers "looked for patterns in the brain signals that correspond to the different words" by analyzing changes in strength of different frequencies within each nerve signal, says Greger. 
The researchers found that each spoken word produced varying brain signals, and thus the pattern of electrodes that most accurately identified each word varied from word to word. They say that supports the theory that closely spaced microelectrodes can capture signals from single, column-shaped processing units of neurons in the brain.


One unexpected finding: When the patient repeated words, the facial motor cortex was most active and Wernicke's area was less active. Yet Wernicke's area "lit up" when the patient was thanked by researchers after repeating words. It shows Wernicke's area is more involved in high-level understanding of language, while the facial motor cortex controls facial muscles that help produce sounds, Greger says.

The researchers were most accurate - 85 percent - in distinguishing brain signals for one word from those for another when they used signals recorded from the facial motor cortex. They were less accurate - 76 percent - when using signals from Wernicke's area. Combining data from both areas didn't improve accuracy, showing that brain signals from Wernicke's area don't add much to those from the facial motor cortex.

When the scientists selected the five on each 16-electrode grid that were most accurate in decoding brain signals from the facial motor cortex, their accuracy in distinguishing one of two words from the other rose to almost 90 percent.

In the more difficult test of distinguishing for one word from signals for the other nine words, the researchers initially were accurate 28 percent of the time - not good, but better than the 10 percent random chance of accuracy. However, when they focused on signals from the five most accurate electrodes, they identified the correct word almost half (48 percent) of the time.

"It doesn't mean the problem is completely solved and we can all go home," Greger says. "It means it works, and we now need to refine it so that people with locked-in syndrome could really communicate."

"The obvious next step - and this is what we are doing right now - is to do it with bigger microelectrode grids" with 121 micro electrodes in an 11-by-11 grid, he says. "We can make the grid bigger, have more electrodes and get a tremendous amount of data out of the brain, which probably means more words and better accuracy."

Provided by University of Utah (news : web)

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