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Tuesday, 28 September 2010

The Malaysian Institute of Accountants is split – what’s next?

By ERROL OH
errol@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: The outcome of the Malaysian Institute of Accoun-tants’s (MIA) AGM on Saturday indicates that the gap in the membership may be widening between small accounting firms on one side, and the rest of the fraternity on the other. The former are dissatisfied with the profession’s regulatory framework and, judging from the voting at the AGM, their call for change is gaining momentum.

Those at the meeting rejected four resolutions, endorsed by the MIA council, to raise the annual membership subscriptions and the annual practising certificate fee. Similar resolutions failed to secure enough votes at last year’s AGM.

On the other hand, six motions that had been proposed and seconded by two members got the nod. These motions were essentially gestures of protest against certain rules that govern the supervision of accounting practitioners.
Christina Foo says it’s up to the council to recommend action.
 
Newly-elected MIA council member Subramaniam Sankar, a senior audit partner in the accounting firm of HALS & Associates, had proposed all six motions. The seconder was Chan Kah Kooi, also with HALS & Associates.

Subramaniam told StarBiz that the next step for the MIA membership and the Government was to determine whether the institute should be a regulator or a professional association.

“If it is decided that the MIA is to be a regulatory body, then we need another professional association to represent our interests and to provide technical expertise. We can’t leave it to the international accounting bodies. We should have a Malaysian organisation,” he added.

Set up under the Accountants Act 1967, the MIA’s chief tasks are to regulate and develop the accountancy profession in Malaysia. It is in fact a hybrid organisation, embracing the roles of both a regulator and a professional body.

MIA vice president Christina Foo acknowledged that by voting against the resolutions and for the motions, the members represented at the AGM had spoken.

“It’s now for the council to deliberate on these matters and to recommend the appropriate actions. If we need to follow up with the other authorities – and these issues do involve them – we will liaise with them,” she said.

According to Foo, the council meetings for the year had been pre-scheduled and it was up to MIA president Abdul Rahim Abdul Hamid to call for an emergency meeting if necessary.

At the start of the AGM in Kuala Lumpur, which lasted over four hours, a member questioned Abdul Rahim’s eligibility to chair the meeting, alleging that the president was not independent.

When members wanted to put this to a vote, Abdul Rahim instead stepped aside and Foo took over.

The dissenting mood continued when the resolutions and motions were tabled. The voting was via ballots, when it became clear that a show of hands would not go unquestioned.

One of the motions proposes that “necessary steps be taken so that all matters that affect only the rights of members in practice be voted upon only by members in practice.”

Another motion proposes that the MIA council takes steps to control the interview process for the issuing of audit licences, instead of a panel comprising various third parties and the MIA as the minority.

Subramaniam also proposed that there be a separate register for practitioners “so as to accord them with respective rights and obligations required to be in practice.”

The members at the AGM also agreed with the motion that the council should make efforts to abolish the need to renew audit licences every two years.

Subramaniam said if efforts to push for these changes through the MIA failed, it might be necessary for the practitioners to bypass the institute.

He is vice president of the Malaysian Association of Small and Medium Accounting Firms, which currently has about 50 members.

In contrast, the MIA has a total membership of almost 27,000. About two thirds of these are professional accountants in business, while a quarter of this population are in public practice.

According to the MIA’s latest annual report, as at June 30, it had 2,036 member firms, including 1,356 audit firms.

Industry insiders reckoned that at least 1,500 firms could be considered small.

TM Unifi Internet service leaves much to be desired

I STARTED subscribing to the Unifi internet service offered by TM Bhd, in June 2010.

Since the day my subscription commenced until the time of this letter, I have faced numerous and repeated problems with the Hypp TV and broadband Internet connection.

The Hypp TV reception eaves much to be desired as the picture quality is bad with frequent interruptions with “boxed” images.

As for the Internet connection, although I have subscribed for the 5MB package, the maximum I have experienced so far is only up to 3.9MB.

The wireless modem provided is of inferior quality and breaks down easily.

After changing to a new modem, the broadband speed decreased to 1MB or less.

I must admit that I received good response on my complaints to the service provider and they were very courteous too.

With the frequent interference, I felt shortchanged because I am still billed for the service at RM149 per month whereas the service provided was far inferior to my previous Streamyx connection, where I’m only required to pay RM66 per month.

I feel that until TM stabilises their Unifi service quality, clients who face such problems should be given rebates.

EAGER SUBSCRIBER,
Petaling Jaya.

Persuading Our Stubborn Aging Parents

Carolyn Rosenblatt
By CAROLYN ROSENBLATT

I recently attended a  book signing event for my book, The Boomer’s Guide to Aging Parents. It’s my first book, and it was an exciting moment.  I was afraid no one would show up, but the room quickly filled.   I asked the people in the audience what brought them to this event to talk about aging loved ones.  One told me about her parent in another state who is refusing a home care worker. They told me about having trouble convincing a parent to sign a health care directive.  They talked a lot about how hard it is to persuade our aging parents to listen to us.

Does this remind you of anyone you know??

We talked  about ways to convince our aging parents to come around to our way of thinking on things like basic safety.  Universal nods.  Many  of us are dealing with this very thing.

Of course, any nurse knows about getting reluctant patients to take medication, get up and move, change their diets and that sort of thing. Nurses must be able to cajole, convince, coax and otherwise get people off their positions.  Almost anyone can learn a few workable persuasion techniques.

Here are my suggestions from yesterday’s talk with the audience, mostly middle aged females with a few guys thrown in, about how to talk our aging parents into doing something we want and they don’t.

•    First, pick your battles.
If your aging parent has a lifelong habit you don’t like, and it’s not getting in the way of safety, forget it.  They don’t want to give up habits, even harmful ones.  Start with the big, scary-for-us things like Dad being unable to cook, not having enough food in the house since Mom died,  or other basics that really do involve safety.  Plan your strategy for “the talk”.

•    Next, pick your best time, place and person to have “the talk” with your aging parent.
The one who never got along with Dad may not be the best person to bring this up.  Does Dad have a favorite?  Ask her to do it.  We have to choose any ally we can find including friends and those outside the family.  Try the conversation during a time of day when Dad is most likely to be amenable, like after his favorite meal  when he’s feeling full and happy.

I personally like to approach anything difficult with good  food.  When in doubt, eat!

•    Use humor.
If we can find a way to get our parent to smile or laugh at all, about anything, we’re a step ahead.  When I worked as a nurse, I’d try out jokes on a patient. Like that his hospital gown was providing a world class view from behind. After I had the guy cracking up for a sec, I’d quickly take advantage of  that moment and slip into the subject about which I wanted to convince him. Now it was time to get out of bed, even if it hurt and yes, you have to do it now.  Sure fire tactic.  The  immediate “laughterglow” of sharing something  a little funny is perfect for breaking down resistance.

•    Always put the need for change on us, not on our parents.
When we want our parent  to make some kind of change, make it our problem and take all the blame.  If we’re trying to get Mom to accept a home helper, think about pitching it as our need, not hers.
Here’s a sample:

“Mom, I’m such a worry wart, I can’t help myself.  I’m losing sleep over you not getting enough good food in the house.  Please help me.  I need you to put my crazy mind at rest.  Could I ask you to try a person out to come in and shop and cook for you a few times a week? I’ll help you find someone. Please, for me? I would feel so much better if you’d help me out.  It’s just so hard for me and I’m frantic with this. I’m sorry to be such a pain.”

You hereby have permission to exaggerate.  Bribery is not out of the question either.

•    Use the “yes-and” technique.
This is something we mediators use all the time to redirect conversations. When someone disagrees with us, instead of saying, “that’s not true, you nitwit”,   we choose another response.  We can acknowledge what our parent just said with the words, “Yes”, followed by “and” followed by whatever is the contrary thought.  For example:

Dad:
“I don’t need to sign a bunch of stupid legal papers now!  I’ll worry about that when I get old!”
Us:

“Yes, and lots of people are getting these DPOA’s (durable power of attorney) signed even when they’re young, like me.  In fact, I need to do it, too. I’d like to bring mine over and show you and maybe we can sign them together. What do you say?”

Coaxing other people to do what we want them to do is nothing new.  How many times did we coax kids into things?  How about friendly persuasion with our spouses, partners, colleagues and our friends?  It’s in us.   The raw talent is in us.

Maybe some people call this “role reversal”.  We have to act like the parent to get the parent to stop acting like a stubborn kid.  It happens.  We all have to man up and lady up and just do this.  If it’s uncomfortable to think about coaxing a parent to do anything that’s good for them (as we see it), we all just have to deal with the discomfort of their resistance and do it.  There is no easy way to keep our parents safe if they’re stubborn about change.  Lots of aging parents, spouses and other relatives we care for are that way.  They don’t like change.  It’s up to us to help them.  No one else is going to do it.

This does not work every time or for everything.  Our parents can choose misery over help if they are determined enough, but we’ve got to try.  Even if we fail at some things, it’s a lot easier to take if we know we tried our hardest to help them.  No need to feel guilty if we gave it our all.

So, let’s give this persuasion thing a try on something minor to start with, and just practice.  And I’d love to hear how it goes.

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The Boomer’s Guide to Aging Parents

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Monday, 27 September 2010

China's rare earths campaign helps development of new energy industry: experts

China's regulation of its rare-earth minerals industry protects the environment, prevents over exploitation of the its resource, and promotes the development of new energy industries across the globe, experts say.

Rare earths have become increasingly important in the manufacture of new energy products like electric-car batteries, wind turbines and other sophisticated products including flat-screen monitors, missiles and aerospace alloys.

The exhaustion of China's rare earths would be a major blow to the world's green energy industry, so China must regulate to curb excessive and disorderly mining of the non-renewable resource, the latest edition of the Xinhua News Agency's finance magazine - Economy & Nation Weekly - quoted Lin Donglu, secretary general of the Chinese Society of Rare Earths, as saying Sunday.

China's regulation of its rare earth industry includes reducing export quotas, cracking down on illegal mining and smuggling, no further issuing of mining licenses and the imposing of production caps.

The time is right to form an international competition mechanism for the rare earth industry to ensure sustainable development of new energy technologies, Lin said, noting that China's rare earth reserves accounted for one third of the world's total in 2009.

However, China's rare earths output hit 120,000 tonnes last year, 97 percent of the world's total, according to a report by Marc Humphries, an energy policy analyst at the United States Congressional Research Service.

While complaining about China's rare earth export quotas, western countries are reluctant to establish rare earth-related high-tech enterprises in China, according to Wang Hongqian, general manager of the China Nonferrous Metal Industry's Foreign Engineering and Construction Co. Limited (NFC).

For western countries, the real worry is that the relevant high-tech industries may shift to China as a consequence of China's regulation of exports, said Lin Donglu.

China announced guidelines earlier this month to encourage merger and acquisition in the rare earth sector, to enhance industry consolidation.

The final say is with the State Council, China's cabinet, Wang Hongqian said, adding that the government will treat light rare earths differently from medium and heavy rare earths.

State-owned enterprises should take the lead in mining and smelting rare earths using advanced technologies, Wang added.

China plans to cut the number of rare earth firms from the current 90 to 20 by 2015, according to media reports.

Source: Xinhua

Sunday, 26 September 2010

China issues 9th human rights white paper


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The Chinese government has released a white paper on human rights in the country in 2009. The report highlights the role of Internet freedom and the country's efforts in safeguarding citizens' legitimate civil and political rights. The white paper is China's 9th report on human rights since the country began releasing the document in 1991.

China's economy developed steadily and relatively rapidly, and people's rights to subsistence and development improved considerably.

>>Full Text: Progress in China's Human Rights in 2009

In 2009, to overcome the impact of the international financial crisis, the Chinese government invested 4,000 billion yuan in the improvement of the people's livelihood, and economic growth.

The country's GDP in the year exceeded 3.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.1 percent over the previous year.
The number of impoverished people in rural China decreased to 35.971 million, or 3.8 percent of the rural population.

The nation adheres to political development with Chinese characteristics.

From January 2009 to March 2010 the NPC and its Standing Committee examined 25 laws and drafts concerning laws, and adopted 18 of them.

Elections for new villagers' committees in 12 provinces and elections for new neighborhood committees in 16 provinces took place.

With their right to freedom of speech on the Internet protected by the law, Chinese citizens can voice their opinions in a wide variety of ways on the Internet.

China also took a further step in improving its judicial system to strengthen the protection of human rights in law enforcement and judicial practices.

China's procuratorial organs approved the arrest of over 941 thousand suspects in criminal cases and instituted legal proceedings against over one million people.

Judicial transparency has increased. 795 staff members of people's courts at all levels were investigated and punished for breaches of law or discipline.

The Chinese government undertook the protection of the people's economic, social and cultural rights as a major task.

China appropriated 42 billion yuan for the increase of job opportunities, a rise of 66.7 percent over the previous year.

11.02 million new job opportunities were created and 5.14 million laid-off workers were re-employed in urban areas of China.

The overall population coverage rates of radio and TV broadcasting were 96.3 percent and 97.2 percent, respectively.

Like citizens of the Han nationality, ethnic groups equally enjoy all the rights accorded to Chinese citizens by the Constitution and laws. Moreover, they also enjoy some special rights under minorities' laws.

China invested 1.24 billion yuan for the socio-economic development of the areas inhabited by ethnic-minority people.

98% of 699 counties in ethnic autonomous areas realized nine-year compulsory education. The other 13 counties have plans to reach these goals in 2010.

The legal and policy guarantees for the rights and interests of disabled people have been enhanced.

Some 6.2 million people with disabilities were rehabilitated to different degrees, and the government provided 1.122 million items of assistance equipment for people with disabilities.

China continues to support and actively participate in activities in the field of human rights, sponsored by the United Nations.

The Chinese government sent a delegation to attend the meeting of a working group to establish an optional protocol for a complaint mechanism of the Convention on the Rights of the Child. China actively recommended its experts to participate in the work of organizations supporting human rights treaties.

Studio interview: Development of China's human rights
For more insight on China's white paper on human rights, we are now joined by our current affairs commentator, Professor Tao Wenzhao in our studio. Full Story>>





Reverse home-spun racial prejudices, Don't be an Ibrahim, Perkasa ! Drop him!

Comment by SHAILA KOSHER

DON’T be an Ibrahim Ali in our homes.”

When the young and savvy Hannah Yeoh made this remark at the 5th National Con­gress of Integrity (NCOI) on Malaysia Day, it drove home a point.

Many Malaysians love castigating Datuk Ibrahim Ali, the head of Perkasa, yet a lot of them spout their own brand of bigotry and prejudice in their homes. Worse, they brainwash the next generation with their biases and stereotypes.

After 47 years, Malaysians – young and old – are still trying to work out what the promise of Malaysia in 1963 was. Is it in the Federal Constitution, in government policies? Has race-based politics resulted in us being more fragmented today than before?

I think that if all Malaysians put into practice the Subang Jaya assemblywoman’s timely advice, we’re on to a good start to improving national integration, reducing polarisation and developing as a nation.

Slagging off a co-worker or neighbour in your home might be cathartic. But by tagging a gender or ethnic origin at the end of “that inept/useless ...”, it means that when your child inevitably meets someone of that race/gender who is all those things, your bigotry is validated as “the truth” instead of the fact that laziness, stupidity and chauvinism is common to all of the human race.

Often times, schools can reverse racism nurtured at the parent’s knees, but it would appear that our young are in danger of having home-spun prejudices reinforced by racist teachers in our schools as well.

Chatting with a senior judge a few days later on the responsibility of parents because children insidiously learn racism at home and the school, he had a horror tale to tell: “I was in practice then. I asked my son about a birthday party he’d asked to go to earlier and he said ‘Not going, he’s Indian.’”

“When I asked why, he replied it was because of something his teacher said. Needless to say, my wife and I made him go to the party.”

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak declared Malaysia Day a public holiday this year. But if he wants to successfully propagate 1Malaysia, the Government must promote a society of equal citizens and protect the marginalised.

He must put an end to or have a sunset clause in policies that polarise Malaysians based on political classifications (bumiputra versus non-bumiputra), ethnic origins (Malay vs non-Malay), religion (Muslim vs non-Muslim), geographical location (West Malaysia vs East Malaysia) and ability (able-bodied vs disabled).

Meanwhile, quite unfettered by slogans and/or political baggage, non-governmental organisations which organised three events in the Klang Valley on Sept 16 did not just help the people celebrate Malaysia but also explore its nuts and bolts (a.k.a. the Federal Constitution) intellectually and artistically.

One was the Oriental Hearts and Mind Study Institute (Ohmsi) that has been the driving force behind five National Congress on Integrity (NCOI) events with different partners since the first NCOI in 2005.

Ohmsi, which is focused on integration with integrity and building bridges of respect, is slowly seeing the impact of its work in individuals. In 2009, Malaysia Day was not a public holiday but Ohmsi and a regular partner – the International Institute of Advanced Islamic Studies – held a closed-door dialogue between Muslims and Christians.

In the light of the continuing controversy over whether Muslims can visit their friends during religious celebrations or invite them to a mosque, it was reassuring to hear that the Islamic Information & Services Foundation takes Muslims to churches and temples where they attend the service, dialogue and share a meal with their Christian, Hindu or Buddhist hosts.

It wasn’t just talk. Last Nov 22, 50 Muslim brothers and sisters attended the Holy Qurbana (Communion) service at the Mar Thoma Church in Kuala Lumpur. It was reported in The Star on Nov 29 that it was a learning and heartfelt experience for both visitors and the hosts.

At this year’s NCOI, former Federal Court judge Datuk Seri Gopal Sri Ram and senior lawyer Datuk Azzat Kamaluddin spoke on national integration with Constitutional integrity: when the Executive and the Legislature both fail the people, it is up to the Judiciary to uphold their fundamental liberties as Constitution is the blueprint of “Malaysia”.

Senator Datuk Seri Idris Jala, who spoke on celebrating diversity, shared an anecdote of an elderly villager from his kampung in Sabah who told him to take his programme on integration to the peninsula because those in East Malaysia already knew more about living together peacefully with those of different ethnic origins and faiths.

Maybe the Education Ministry should get into the mini-homestay business – send batches of orang Semenanjung to live in Sabah and Sarawak, starting with students.

The other organisation deserving mention is the Bar Council’s Constitutional Law Committee, which is driving a two-year campaign to educate all Malaysians on the Constitution in layman terms.

They launched the campaign’s 6th phase, despite a 1Malaysia youth club recently lodging a police report against the council for handing out allegedly seditious material on the Constitution.

These young graduates seem to object to Malaysians learning about the Constitution but another young bunch have chosen instead to render their thoughts in music under Saya Anak Bangsa Malaysia’s (SABM) youth project.

Aliff, 23, lead guitarist for Car Crash Hearts rock band, said their song Bangkit! hoped to move youths to get out and vote instead of just whining and complaining.

One year ago, the SABM with its message of “One People, One Nation” had attracted “the oldies”.
But its co-founder Haris Ibrahim reckons “the baton is being passed on to the younger generation by the old fogies”.

Hopefully by next Malaysia Day, we’ll all be a little less polarised, a little more integrated, a little more a Bangsa Malaysia.

Tuesday September 28, 2010

Koh: Don’t give Perkasa space and face

KUALA LUMPUR: Malay rights group Perkasa should not be given the publicity that it has been enjoying, said Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Tan Sri Dr Koh Tsu Koon.

He said the group was of no importance and that “we should not give them too much face and space.”
“However, while taking a stand against extremism, we should look at the root cause which are socio-economic and political in nature,” he told reporters after giving his keynote address at the National Unity Forum 2010 here yesterday.

He said voices like Perkasa had always existed in every society but they were not well-articulated then.
“When society becomes more open and with the development of technology and the Internet, these voices that were hidden have now become well-known,” he said.

On the 1Malaysia concept, Dr Koh said it was about inclusiveness and not just tolerance.

“In realising the goal of 1Malaysia, we have to ensure we practise inclusiveness in everything we do.
“At the Government level, the implementation of policies must be fair and just and seen to be so,” he said.
Dr Koh said Malaysians must respect the differences of others and celebrate their diversity and uniqueness.

He declined to comment when asked whether he would move a motion against Datuk Dr Teng Hock Nan to remove him as the Penang Gerakan chief.

“This is an internal party matter and I do not intend to make a public statement,” said Dr Koh, who is Gerakan president.

Wednesday September 29, 2010

MCA chief: Deputy director not fit for Civics Bureau position

KUALA LUMPUR: A deputy director of the National Civics Bureau (NCB) who allegedly uttered racist remarks is no longer fit to hold his position, MCA president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek said.

He added that Hamim Husin should be sent for counselling, retraining and transferred to a desk job.
Dr Chua said Hamim did not understand the concept of democracy when he proclaimed Malay rights as a mandate to rule the country.

“He obviously does not know what democracy is all about. In a country that practises democracy, it is the rakyat who determine who rules the country,” he said.

A news portal on Monday reported that Hamim had made the remarks at a Puteri Umno event.

Dr Chua said the Public Services Department should take action against Hamim if he was in the wrong.
“Our (MCA) stand is very clear. Anyone who makes remarks which are racial, religious, extreme in nature and hurt the people of other religions or races should be subjected to punishment according to the country’s laws,” he told reporters after chairing the party’s presidential council meeting here yesterday.

MCA publicity bureau deputy chairman Loh Seng Kok said it was shameful for a public servant employed to train upcoming civil servants to use such derogatory stereotypical terms.

He said Hamim’s statement had offended the Chinese and Indian communities.

“If necessary, the police should also charge Hamim under the Sedition Act. It is time to put a halt to the arrogance and intolerance of bigots,” he said in a statement yesterday.

Loh said lecturers and facilitators should take heed from Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz’s earlier announcement that the Cabinet had given the nod for the NCB course to be revamped to cater to all races in line with 1Malaysia.

MIC vice-president Datuk Dr S. Subramaniam also condemned Hamim’s derogatory remarks, saying NCB was a government agency under the Prime Minister’s Department.






Saturday, 25 September 2010

The Price of Crisis Prevention

 Present value of corresponding losses in future output estimated at 100% of world GDP.

COMMENT
By JEAN PISANI-FERRY




TWO years have passed since the financial crises erupted, and we have only started to realise how costly it is likely to be. Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England estimates that the present value of the corresponding losses in future output could well reach 100% of world GDP (or gross domestic product).

This estimate may look astonishingly high, but it is relatively conservative, as it assumes that only one-quarter of the initial shock will result in permanently lower output.

According to the true doomsayers, who believe that most, if not all, of the shock will have a permanent impact on output, the total loss could be two or three times higher.

One year of world GDP amounts to US$60 trillion, which corresponds to about five centuries of official development assistance or, to be even more concrete, 10 billion classrooms in African villages. Of course, this is no direct cost to public budgets (the total cost of bank rescue packages is much lower), but this lost output is the cost that matters most when considering how to reduce the frequency of crises.

Assume that, absent adequate preventive measures, a crisis costing one year of world GDP occurs every 50 years (a rough but not unreasonable assumption). It would then be rational for the world’s citizens to pay an insurance premium, provided its cost remains below 2% of GDP (100%/50).

A simple way to reduce the frequency of crises is to require banks to rely more on equity and less on debt so that they can incur more losses without going bankrupt – a measure that is currently being considered at the global level. Thanks to reports just released by the Financial Stability Board and the Basel Committee – one on the long-term implications of requiring higher capital-to-asset ratios, and one on the transitory effects of introducing them – we know more now about the likely impact of such regulation.

The first report finds that, starting from the current low level of bank capitalisation, a one percentage point increase in capital ratios would permanently reduce the frequency of crises by one-third, while increasing interest rates by some 13 basis points (banks would need to charge more because it costs them more to raise capital than to issue debt).

In other words, the price of losing one year of income every 75 years instead of every 50 years would lead banks to increase the rate on a loan from 4% to 4.13%. Such an insignificant increase would at most lead a few bank customers to turn to alternative sources of finance, most likely with no discernible effect on GDP.
It is stunning to find that a regulation can do so much good at such a small cost – much smaller than in many other fields where public policy imposes economically costly safety requirements. Think, for example, of the environment or public health, where the precautionary principle guides decision-making.

So much for the long term. The hotly debated question nowadays is whether the transition to higher mandatory reserves would involve excessive short-term costs (as banks will likely increase lending spreads and reduce credit volumes). Subjecting banks, some of which are still ailing, to new regulation may lead them to curtail lending even more, thereby further weakening the pace of economic recovery.

Sound judgement is needed regarding the speed and timing of regulatory tightening.

The second report finds that a one-percentage-point increase in bank capital ratios, if introduced gradually over four years, would lower GDP by about 0.2%. Given that increases by three percentage points are frequently mentioned, the total effect could be 0.6%.

Uncertainties abound

But uncertainties abound. The report oddly finds that raising the target capital ratio would have a significantly greater adverse effect in the United States than in the eurozone, despite the latter’s more pronounced reliance on bank-based financing.

Moreover, the report assumes that monetary policy can offset part of the shock, which may not be true where near zero interest rates already prevail – or in the euro area where the effort may vary across countries while monetary policy is uniform.

So the impact of new regulations on countries where banks are significantly under-capitalised could easily be four or five times larger than the headline figure – say, in the vicinity of a percentage point at a four-year horizon.

This may still look small, but it is hardly a trivial sum in view of the short-term growth outlook in the developed world. At a time when growth is too slow to reduce massive unemployment, every decimal matters.

To lower growth by this magnitude at a time when the private sector has not yet completed its deleveraging cycle – and governments are starting their own – is to risk a prolonged period of near stagnation, which could turn crisis-induced unemployment into structural unemployment.

Furthermore, tighter credit standards over a prolonged period are likely to fall disproportionately on cash-poor, fast-growing companies, with consequences for innovation, productivity, and ultimately growth potential.

None of this means that banks should be granted a regulatory holiday and forget the need to recapitalise. But it does suggest, first, that timing matters. Policymakers should be wary of imposing a regulatory shock simultaneously with a fiscal shock. For this reason, enacting new regulatory standards now while setting distant deadlines is a sensible strategy.

Second, the existence and magnitude of transition costs means that not everything that reduces the probability of financial crises is worth undertaking. For politicians obsessed by current difficulties, whether the next crisis occurs in 50 or 75 years may seem secondary. As a result, regulatory reform must be designed in a way that minimises short-term costs.

Higher capital ratios and liquidity ratios are only one of several approaches to making the financial system safer. Other measures – say, capital insurance, or reform of the boundaries within the financial industry, a la Paul Volcker – are worth considering.

There is no doubt that the long-term price of insuring against crises is worth paying. But that doesn’t mean that reform should not be as cost-effective as possible. © Project Syndicate
Jean Pisani-Ferry is director of European think-tank, Bruegel.