Who can win in South China Sea clashes?

A People’s Liberation Army vessel firing cannons and torpedoes in a drill in the South China Sea earlier this month. Photo: Weibo :

China meets with Asean diplomats to propose resuming South China Sea Talks

https://youtu.be/Abro8Y7e8pA>

Without a blink, most people are likely to say the US will reign over China as America is a more advanced military/defence power with vast combat experience in the many past and present wars it has provoked or created in various parts of the world.

“In terms of military strength, it must be the US,” said Global Times’ editor-in-chief Hu Xijin in an Aug 7 comment piece on South China Sea. As the official media outlet of the Communist Party of China (CPC) headed by President Xi Jinping, Global Times’ comments are closely monitored by China watchers.

However, the influential journalist remarked that if military clashes occur off China’s coastal waters, the outcome may be “uncertain” as China’s maritime strength combined with onshore combat power may pose challenges to the US navy. But if the showdown occurs in East China Sea and it involves Taiwan, then there will be “a contest of wills as well as a contest of strength”.

Taiwan, though permitted to self-rule after 1949, is jealously guarded as part of China’s territory.

“Whoever commands a upper hand (in clashes involving Taiwan) will be decided by a combination of military strength plus morality plus the will to fight,” said Hu in his comment.

In Chinese social media, the US and its allies are reminded that present-day China cannot be bullied. It is no longer the sick man of Asia, as perceived in the 19th century. Chinese commentators often end their YouTube clips stating that a modern and powerful China will win against aggressors at all cost, with the support of 1.4 billion strong-willed and patriotic Chinese.

The will to drive the aggressor off is an important element in warfare. The withdrawal of the US from the Vietnam War (1955-1975) has shown that its military might was not enough to defeat and kill the fighting spirit of the Vietnamese people.

It is clear to many people that intensifying military exercises in South China Sea is part of the US global strategy to contain a rising China, seen by Washington as the most serious threat to its economic, technological and military superiority. With Donald Trump gearing up for a presidential election in November that many polls have indicated he is likely to lose, nobody dares rule out that this unpredictable leader may start a war outside America as a ploy to win more domestic support within the US.

Former Australian premier Kevin Rudd has warned in an article in the Foreign Affairs journal of an “especially high” risk of armed conflict between the two powers as Trump seems hell-bent to win at all cost.

“The once unthinkable outcome – actual armed conflict between the US and China – now appears possible for the first time... We are confronting the prospect of not just a new Cold War, but a hot one as well,” he wrote early this month.

There has been a greater frequency of the deployment of US warships conducting military exercises in the South China and East Seas. In response, China has also increased its drills.

Indeed, tension in the South China Sea has escalated after Washington announced on July 13 that Beijing’s claims to most parts of South China Sea are “unlawful”.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had declared in a statement: “The world will not allow Beijing to treat the South China Sea as its maritime empire. America stands with our Southeast Asian allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources.”

The harsh tone of the US on the South China Sea has drawn support from its Western allies – particularly Australia and the United Kingdom. But within Asean – the biggest trading bloc of China since early this year, most nations have taken a neutral and cautious stance.

These states, some of which have overlapping claims with China over certain parts of South China Sea, are concerned they will become pawns and suffer when the two superpowers actually fight.

On Aug 8, Asean foreign ministers issued a joint statement calling on “all countries to exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability, to refrain from the threat or the use of force, and to resolve differences and disputes by peaceful means in accordance with international law”.

The statement reiterates the grouping’s commitment to maintaining South-East Asia as a region of peace, security, neutrality and stability.

Many analysts believe that Pompeo’s tough talk is a ploy to help Trump’s re-election and partly an effort to divert attention from Trump’s bungled response to the Covid-19 pandemic and his falling poll numbers.

Pompeo’s tough stance on China, though not openly supported by Asean, is quietly welcomed by some anti-China quarters within the blog. It is to be noted that China’s construction of islands and reefs in the South China Sea in recent years has caused discomfort among Asean members.

Though China has often said the construction is carried out on their waters and mainly for civil purposes, it has also built and placed defence facilities on them.

Regardless of the reaction from China and Asean, Washington has not lessened its military manoeuvres.

According to the mainland’s think tank, the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, the US military has significantly increased large reconnaissance aircraft activities to 67 in July, compared to 35 in May and 49 in June.

For the first half of this year, the US has conducted more than 2,000 military exercises and drills in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Straits and the East Sea.

US spy aircraft reportedly made intensive flights when the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was conducting operations.

In July, US reconnaissance aircraft entered areas within 70 nautical miles of China’s territorial sea baseline nine times, six times within 60 nautical miles, and in the closest event, about 40 nautical miles away from China’s sea baseline.

The close-up spying is seen by China as a demonstration of military muscle and a provocation by the US, which reportedly has all-round, advanced spying technologies and high frequency aerial reconnaissance.

Hence, based on military strength alone, a Forbes magazine writer shares the view of most military analysts that the US has an upper hand.

On Aug 9, Forbes’ aerospace and defence writer David Axe wrote: “The US military probably has enough warplanes to win a war with China in the western Pacific.”

But he cautioned a caveat. He noted the US doesn’t have enough bases in that faraway part of the world as a battleground.

“The amount of air power China and the US can bring to bear in a war over the South China Sea depends in large part on how many bases each country can set up, supply and protect within 500 miles of the major battle zones.

“Distance is the greatest destroyer of tactical airpower. Most modern fighters can fly no farther than 500 miles from their bases. Refueling tankers realistically can add a few hundred miles to a fighter’s combat radius.”

The writer suggested that the US army could create bases by “dropping paratroopers or landing marines” on some of China’s islands and reefs.

However, in the same breath, he conceded that this strategy may not succeed as China has since 2013 built unmoving aircraft carriers in the form of outposts in the Spratly and Paracel island chains.

The island bases, plus the airfields along the coast in southeast China, allow Beijing to disperse its warplanes. This dispersal can help to protect planes from US missile and bomber raids, he wrote.

But if the US military really occupies China’s islands and reefs, it will spark the start of a full scale war with China, Global Times’ editor warned.

“The US troops will have to face an all-out counterattack from the PLA and will certainly pay a heavy price for their reckless decisions,” warned Hu in his comment in Global Times.

According to a South China Morning Post report dated Aug 9, America is looking to outgun PLA in the Indo-Pacific and its military chiefs are reviewing their deployments to ensure they have sufficient firepower and troops.

However, Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie believes the PLA has sufficient firepower to take on American fleets in the event of an offshore battle.

“China’s Type PCL191 multiple launch rocket systems, which have a range up to 400km, and other rocket launchers are the most efficient low-cost option for dealing with head-to-head conflicts,” the Post quoted Li as saying.

Despite facing all kinds of insults from the US, political interference in Hong Kong and military incitement in the South China Sea, China has exercised restraint.

It may not fire the first shot, most reports indicate.

China has told its service personnel “not to fire the first shot” in the increasingly frequent stand-offs with US planes and warships, South China Morning Post reported on Aug 12 citing sources familiar with Chinese thinking.

But still, the combat-ready PLA armed with its advanced equipment is always on its highest alert, said military experts last week on China’s CCTV Mandarin channel.

Due to the tense situation, countries in the region are worried that there may be “accidental clashes” that could lead to full-scale war that will hurt regional and global trade.

As a vital artery of trade for many of the world’s largest economies, about US$4-5 trillion (RM16.7-RM20.9 trillion) worth of goods transits through the waterway annually. Hence, if a war erupts in South China Sea, all will be losers – including the US and China.

It certainly will not boost Trump’s electoral chances if the war drags on to become another “Vietnam War” for the US and Americans.

By HO WAH FOON

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Bigger thriller in Manila: Asean point man to deal with China

Point man: Asean has designated Manila its ‘leader’ in dealings with China, but can the moody Duterte, here shown bonding with Xi on a visit to Beijing in 2016, clinch a an agreement from China for the regional association? — AP

https://youtu.be/iMB26dijZAE https://youtu.be/tedFwDyW2Uo

NOW that the quartet of Asean-related summits is over for the year, so should the niggling criticisms. At least they should – more important matters are at hand.

Over the week Singapore hosted the 2nd RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) Summit, the 13th East Asia Summit, the 21st Asean Plus Three Summit, and – not least – the 33rd Asean Summit.

These summits were held because it was time they were, and Singapore hosted them because it was its turn. But criticisms were not far behind.

US President Donald Trump was a no-show, and so was Chinese President Xi Jinping. Vice-President Mike Pence and Prime Minister Li Keqiang attended instead.

Trump was criticised for his absence, which allegedly “left the region wide open” for Xi’s China to make further inroads here. That complaint was limited only by Xi’s own absence.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was also criticised for not attending an “informal breakfast summit” between Asean and Australian leaders.

His said it was only an informal event, and it was over breakfast which he did not eat.

A casual observer may be forgiven for sensing that there must be more important developments than these scheduled rounds of handshakes and photo opportunities. There are.

One of these begins in two days: Xi’s state visit to the Philippines, following the scheduled 30th Apec Summit in Papua New Guinea.

Duterte had made three visits to China as President, inviting Xi to visit Manila each time. This will be Xi’s first state visit, coming upon the third invitation to him.

There will be handshakes and photo opportunities too, but the substance and symbolism now may be more than the recent multiple summits in Singapore and Papua New Guinea.

The Philippines has been vocal about rival claims to territory in the South China Sea. The previous The region is generally unsettled by China’s recent occupation and construction of islands, with Vietnam remaining most disturbed. Duterte’s critics have also blamed him for being soft on Beijing.

However, Xi’s visit is expected to be smooth with an emphasis on the positives. These include mutual interests deemed to be larger than interminable disputes over distant rocks and islets.

Last year Chinese Vice-Premier Wang Yang visited Manila for four days amid more audible protests over territory such as Benham Rise. Yet the visit proceeded unhindered.

This time it is President Xi himself, for a state visit of only two days, with no particular complaint against China outstanding. It will also be after one full year of China having become the Philippines’ main trading partner.

For both sides the focus will be quite intense on specific projects backed by Chinese assistance. Duterte left the merrymaking in Papua New Guinea early to return home to prepare for Xi’s arrival.

For China, it would demonstrate to the region how it can cooperate with even a country locked in dispute with it to mutual benefit. This gains added significance when it is the Philippines, historically a US ally.

For the Philippines, there is a host of projects and programmes on Duterte’s wish list requiring Chinese aid. They span his ambitious 9-trillion peso (RM717bil) “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure plan covering all three regions of the Philippines: Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

These come under the Six-Year Development Program (SYDP) signed last year with China as a framework for the Philippines’ “Golden Age of Infrastructure.” It is to be Duterte’s legacy for his country.

The 75 projects include a water pump and irrigation scheme, a dam, a north-south railway, a highway, bridges, a park and a rehabilitated power plant. Economic growth is projected to outpace debt.

Duterte is clear-minded enough to know that only China is able and willing to provide the assistance needed. No other country or combination of countries is in a position to do so.

There are also plans for more Chinese business investments, as well as a framework agreement for joint oil and gas explorations at sea. The latter are understood to cover some disputed areas, with China agreeing to only a 40% share of recoverable deposits.

Countries in dispute over territory and the reserves found therein tend to shy from joint exploration, as legally this may imply recognition of the other disputing party’s claim.

But since this condition applies equally to both parties, the Philippines may be confident that China would also be obliged to acknowledge the Philippine claim. Can there be a lesson here for other Asean countries with claims to the South China Sea?

To ensure the success of Xi’s visit, there had been a positive build-up of Philippines-China relations in recent months. Xi’s state visit in turn is envisaged to lead to even better bilateral relations.

Last August, joint simulated naval exercises were held in Singapore among Asean countries and China without US participation. Manila defended that decision by saying that the “tabletop” drill was meant only for neighbouring countries in the region.

Now as Xi prepares for his visit, the US Pacific Fleet is reportedly readying a series of naval operations as a “show of force” in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits. In response to China’s stated concern, the Philippines said it will have no part in those operations.Xi’s visit is important not just for the Philippines but also Asean, which had designated Manila the “point man” in dealings with China. Can Duterte clinch an agreement from China for Asean?

Manila had said that a legally binding Code of Conduct (CoC) in the South China Sea was on the agenda, but Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said it may take another three years.

If China really wants to prove its goodwill in Manila, Xi could suggest it may happen considerably sooner.

The last Chinese President to make a state visit to the Philippines was Hu Jintao in 2005. That occasion also marked the 30th anniversary of bilateral relations, which is as auspicious a time as any.

This Tuesday’s visit by Xi will be the first Chinese state visit in 13 years. That is an auspicious number in Chinese, but not so in Western culture.

Will it be auspicious for the Philippines, the only Christian-majority country in the region once colonised by Spain and then the US? Duterte’s original style of leadership may yet make the difference.

By Behind The Headlines Bunn Nagara

Bunn Nagara is a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia.

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Curtain falls on S.China Sea arbitration farce; Tribunal manipulators will be revealed

 

Foreign ministers of ASEAN member states and China at the ASEAN-China Ministerial Meeting in Vientiane, Laos. — VNA/VNS

https://youtu.be/i_J3TQKTXcc

The 49th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting on Monday issued a joint communiqué, which didn't breathe a word about the South China Sea arbitration, or harbor any overt criticism against China. Although the South China Sea issue was mentioned many times in the communiqué, it only gave a general overview of principles that must be stuck to. Most foreign media view the communiqué as a triumph for China's diplomacy.

On the same day, a joint statement on how to effectively implement the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea was issued.

The two statements reflect the consistent stand of ASEAN. Attempts at pressuring China through the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting have failed.

As the first foreign ministers' meeting after the so-called South China Sea arbitration award was issued, the US and Japan hoped to use the meeting in Laos to solicit ASEAN's collective support for the arbitration and impose unprecedented diplomatic pressure on China. But such expectations do not correspond with the realities in East Asia.

Hype was running high among American and Japanese media that only Cambodia was standing in the way of a joint statement that incorporates the South China Sea arbitration, and Laos as the host country didn't voice any firm opposition.

From another perspective, only the Philippines wanted a joint statement with reference to the arbitration, and Vietnam was not so persistent in its demands. Most ASEAN countries have maintained a neutral attitude. They neither want to see a division within the bloc, nor to be dragged into a conflict with China over arbitration.

Manila compromised this time, giving consent to a communiqué without mention of the arbitration. It showed flexibility compared with 2012, when the 45th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting ended with no joint statement because the Philippines' propositions over the South China Sea issue were firmly opposed.

It's in the common interests of China and ASEAN to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea. But the US and Japan are willing to see conflicts between China and the Philippines and Vietnam escalate. If the arbitration leads to overall confrontation between ASEAN and China, it will fullfil the desires of the US and Japan.

ASEAN won't be so silly as to head toward a confrontation with China. We have carried out construction activities on islands and reefs in the South China Sea, but with our utmost efforts to avoid confrontation.

The possibility of a military solution to the South China Sea dispute has become smaller and smaller. The arbitration has brought about new risks. Instead of a clash between China and the Philippines, or China and Vietnam, there are more worries about conflicts being sparked between China and the US.

Under such conditions, it could never be ASEAN's desire to amplify the negative influences of the arbitration case. Two weeks after the arbitration result was announced, no other countries outside the region but the US, Japan and Australia have voiced support for it. The farce is coming to an end.- Global Times.

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https://youtu.be/tUR7WVsmC7k

Spotlight: Chinese FM calls for end to politicization of South China Sea issue, urges parties to return to negotiations

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Tuesday that the political manipulation behind the arbitral tribunal will be revealed, in response to the comments made by some foreign ministers on the South China Sea arbitration case.

Wang expounded on China's position when attending the 6th East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers' Meeting held in the Lao capital Vientiane.

Wang said China has not participated in the arbitration case and will not accept the so-called ruling, a position that China has made clear since day one and is supported by strong legal basis.

By adopting this position, China is safeguarding the sanctity and impartiality of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), said the Chinese foreign minister.

First, the arbitration unilaterally initiated by the former Philippine government violated the principle of having the consent of concerned parties as the basis of arbitration and failed to meet the prerequisite of conducting full exchange of views beforehand, thus lacking the legal conditions to be initiated.

What the former Philippine government had done also abandoned bilateral agreements between China and the Philippines and violated Article 4 of the Declaration on Conducts of the Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) as well as the principle of estoppel prescribed in international law, according to Wang.

Second, he said, the subject matters of the arbitration, however packaged, in fact directly concern territorial sovereignty and maritime delimitation which are beyond the scope of the UNCLOS and the jurisdiction of the ad hoc tribunal. It is a typical act of overstepping the power and ultra vires as well as the abuse of dispute arbitration mechanism.

Wang said by citing a prominent legal expert from Europe that the arbitration case undoubtedly touches upon territorial sovereignty which is not governed by the UNCLOS. The tribunal's practice of separating territorial sovereignty dispute with the status of islands and reefs is unseen in international law, which is like "putting the cart before the horse."

Third, the ruling of the ad hoc tribunal is full of obvious mistakes, Wang said. It blatantly uses its self-invented rules to negate and deprive the lawful and legitimate territorial sovereignty, maritime rights and interests of parties concerned. In particular, it says that Taiping Dao, the largest island in the Nansha Islands with an area of 500,000 square meters, is a rock and has no relevant maritime rights.

If such a judgment can legally stand, the sea map of the world will need to be redrawn, Wang said.

Wang stressed that this ruling runs counter to the spirit of international rule of law as well as the principle and spirit of the UNCLOS.

"This arbitration is imbued with question marks and fallacies in terms of procedure, legal application, fact finding and evidence gathering," he said.

The so-called ruling is illegal in three aspects: the initiation of the arbitration is illegal, the set-up of the tribunal is illegal, and the result of the arbitration is illegal. Therefore, China's stance is fully legitimate which serves the purpose of upholding international equity and justice and regional peace and stability, Wang said.

The Chinese foreign minister said more and more countries have come to see the nature and danger of the arbitration case, and understand and acknowledge China's stance to resolve disputes through direct negotiation and consultation, calling for respect to the rights of sovereign states to independently choose dispute settlement means including respecting the declaration on optional exceptions made under Article 298 of the UNCLOS.

There are also more and more legal experts around the world questioning the legality of the arbitration case and the fairness of the ruling, Wang said, noting that the illegal nature of the so-called South China Sea arbitration case and the political manipulation hidden behind the ad hoc arbitral tribunal will be further revealed. - Global Times

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Malaysia-China way to South China Sea disputes: a model of amicable consultations

Taking the cue from both China’s and Malaysia’s approach to South China Sea disputes.

 

Towards 'Diamond 40 Years': File pic showing Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak(4th left) and Chinese Prime Minister, Li Keqiang (3rd, right) at the group photo session with Malaysian youths during his six-day official visit to China in conjunction with 40th anniversary of Malaysia-China bilateral relations in May 2014 - Bernama

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RECENTLY, the South China Sea disputes had been hyped up as a hotspot issue in regional security and discussed in almost every regional and international forum, resulting from the high-profile interference of and the manipulation by some powers outside the region.

In fact, this issue should be solved through negotiation and consultation by parties directly concerned.

Furthermore, freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, which has never been affected, has been misinterpreted by some country as “freedom exclusive to its own military vessels and planes” and flexing its muscles.

The illegal arbitration unilaterally initiated by the Philippines has been labelled as a “benchmark of law-ruling” by the West, suggesting that judicial settlement is the only way to solve disputes in the South China Sea.

Meanwhile, the approach of non-conflicting and friendly consultation has been overshadowed by the noise and chaos.

One day, a friend of mine asked me, is Malaysia a claimant in the South China Sea? If yes, why is the Malaysia-China and Philippines-China relations poles apart? This is indeed a good question.

There is no essential difference between the two pairs of ties.

As China’s close neighbours, Malaysia and the Philippines have enjoyed traditional friendship with China.

Both were the first countries to establish diplomatic relations with China among Asean states. However, while the Malaysia-China relationship is “at the best time of history” and on the path to a new era of “Diamond 40 Years”, the Philippines-China relationship is experiencing severe difficulties.

The reason behind such a striking contrast lies in the different ways the two claimants chose to deal with the disputes with China.

While Malaysia has consistently been committed to maintaining friendly relationship, properly handling disputes, strengthening cooperation and enhancing comprehensive strategic partnership with China, the Philippine president Benigno Aquino III, on the contrary, misjudged the international situation, acted as a pawn of an outsider’s geopolitical strategy, and chose to confront China.

China and Malaysia Set a Model of Amicable Consultations

China and Malaysia enjoy a time-honoured friendship. There are lots of historical records in China about the Malay peninsula since the Tang and Song Dynasties.

In the 15th century, the Ming Dynasty established close relations with the Sultanate of Malacca. Over 600 years ago, Admiral Zheng He stationed at Malacca five times during seven voyages.

He promoted friendship, developed trade and maintained justice in the area. From Admiral Zheng, people have learned the essence of Chinese culture where peace and good neighbourliness always come first.

They do believe that China has no gene of expansion, plunder or aggression. Instead, China can be a trustworthy friend and reliable partner of Malaysia.

Then Prime Minister Tun Razak first adjusted the policy on China 42 years ago with strategic insight among Asean leaders in the context of the Cold War.

He went to China for “an ice-breaking trip” and signed the Communiqué of the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations with Premier Zhou Enlai which opened a new chapter in bilateral relations. Since then, China and Malaysia have helped each other and overcome many difficulties hand in hand.

The relations between the two countries have taken a lead in China’s relations with Asean countries and set a model of friendship in the region.

After four decades, bilateral relations between China and Malaysia are full of vitality and stimulus with deeper mutual trust, frequent high-level visits, constant party-to-party and local exchanges and fruitful cooperation.

China has become Malaysia’s largest trading partner for seven years and Malaysia is China’s largest trading partner in Asean for eight years, and sixth largest in the world.

The bilateral trade volume has reached US$100bil (RM407.5bil). There are also many iconic cooperation projects.

The high-tech cooperation has reached the skies and seas. Malaysia has long been a popular destination for Chinese tourists.

Consulates-general in Kota Kinabalu and Penang and Nanning have been set up. The Malay Studies Centre was established in the Beijing Foreign Studies University and the Confucius Institutes were set up in Universiti Malaya and Segi University.

Xiamen University Malaysia Campus welcomed its first batch of students this year. Pandas Xing Xing and Liang Liang settled in Zoo Negara and gave birth to a baby panda named “Nuan Nuan”, reflecting our heartwarming bond.

Bilateral cooperation in finance, technology, defence and other fields is also striding forward. The seed sowed by the leaders has grown into a flourishing tree, blossomed and yielded fruits.

It is normal for neighbours to have differences and problems. Malaysia is one of the claimants in the South China Sea.

However, this has never hindered the development of our relations. The key is that the leaders of both countries weigh the situation in the perspective of history and experiences, recognise the trend of the world and always place cooperation and mutual development as a priority.

The leaders have frequently exchanged views on the issue of the South China Sea and reached a series of important consensus.

Both sides agree to deal with disputes through friendly consultations and dialogues, avoiding the issue of sabotaging the bilateral relations.

Furthermore, both China and Malaysia object to intervention by forces outside the region. When the Philippines was unilaterally pursuing the South China Sea arbitration case in May 2014, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib revisited China to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations.

During the visit, the Joint Communiqué signed by the leaders reaffirmed a series of important consensus.

Both sides emphasised that “all sovereign states directly concerned shall exercise self-restraint and settle their differences by peaceful means, through friendly consultations and negotiations, and in accordance with universally recognised principles of international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea 1982.”

Both sides recognised that “intervention or involvement of parties not directly concerned could be counter-productive and further complicate the aforementioned differences.”

It is based on such consensus that the two sides have properly managed their differences, pushed forward their relations, benefited the two peoples and set a good example for regional countries in dealing with disputes.

Unilateral Arbitration is a Wrong Option

The Philippines’ conduct was contrary to Malaysia’s friendly and proper handling of the disputes with China.

In recent years, President Aquino abandoned the commitment of the former government, relied on a superpower to hype up the disputes in the South China Sea, and insisted on confronting China.

He became world “famous” as the arbitration case is a farce. When his term ends, apart from the severe consequences of undermining the China-Philippines traditional friendship, his political legacy will only be piles of bills from the tribunal.

China and the Philippines have a long history of friendly exchanges. The two countries established diplomatic relations in 1975, only one year after China and Malaysia.

Until 2012 when the Philippines deliberately stirred up the Huangyandao Incident and went on a path of confrontation, relations between the two countries had developed soundly and stably with fruitful cooperation in various fields which brought tangible benefits to their two peoples.

For instance, it was China and the Philippines that first launched joint maritime seismic undertaking which became a precious endeavour in the South China Sea.

The two sides launched friendly negotiations and achieved positive outcome in establishing dialogue mechanism, carrying out pragmatic cooperation and promoting joint development.

During President Arroyo’s visit to China in 2007, both sides praised the relations between two countries as a “golden era”.

It is deeply regrettable that on the occasion of the 40th anniversary of the establishment of China-Philippines relations in 2015, the bilateral ties were upset by the arbitration case, instead of entering a “diamond era” from the “golden era” as China and Malaysia has.

Compared with the breadth, depth and warmth of the friendly interaction between China and Malaysia, shouldn’t the Philippines introspect itself?

As a Chinese old saying goes, “close neighbors are more important than remote relatives.” Forces outside the region may come and go whenever they want, but China and Philippines are neighbours that cannot move away from each other.

As a country committed to regional peace and stability as well as promoting economic development, China sincerely welcomes all the regional countries to take a ride together for deeper mutual benefit and win-win cooperation.

The Philippines’ inflexibility on the arbitration case will only sacrifice its own opportunities and interest.

Amicable Consultation is the Only Way Out

People in littoral states along the South China Sea have lived for a long time in peace and harmony, ready to help each other when in need. Although in the 1960s and 1970s, some changes took place and new problems emerged, China and Asean states have consistently engaged in dialogues and communication and maintained overall peace and stability at sea without interference from powers outside the region.

The Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) signed by China and Asean in 2002 has played an indispensable role.

Even if the South China Sea issue heats up, China will still stick to settling disputes through negotiation and consultation in a peaceful way. China has also proposed the “Dual Track Approach”, that is, the relevant disputes should be solved by the sovereign states directly concerned through consultation and negotiation, and that peace and stability in the South China Sea should be maintained through joint efforts of China and Asean member states.

The approach is in full accordance with international laws and practices, and has been supported by most of the Asean countries including Malaysia and Brunei which are also claimants in the South China Sea.

History will prove again that friendly consultation is the right way to settle the disputes in the South China Sea.

China is strongly opposed to the unilateral action by the Philippines and China’s position of non-acceptance and non-participation in the arbitration case will not change.

The new Philippine Government should discard illusions and return to the right track. As a matter of fact, Malaysia and Brunei have already set good examples.

Just as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated, the arbitration case is a knot that has impeded the improvement and development of China-Philippines relations.

As to how to untie the knot, it depends on the Philippines. China wishes that the new Philippine Government will make a wise choice in consideration to improving the relations and enhancing mutually beneficial cooperation between the Philippines and China.

The Philippines should cease its arbitral proceedings, refuse to be a pawn anymore and return to bilateral negotiation with China.

China is standing ready to commit itself to full and effective implementation of the DOC and making continuous efforts with all relevant parties to maintain peace and stability in the region.

Dr. Huang Huikang

The writer is the Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China to Malaysia. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.

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A new journey to make history

Admiral Zheng He

The sincerity, friendship, mutual benefit and win-win outcome which guided Admiral Zheng He still guide Malaysia and China’s bilateral relations today.

IT is a great pleasure to pay my first visit to Malaysia as Premier of the State Council of the People’s Repub­lic of China and attend the East Asia leaders’ meetings. I am no stranger to this beautiful country, as I visited Malaysia in 1996 when the Petronas Twin Towers were just completed. The past 20 years have indeed witnessed impressive and admirable achievements in Malaysia.

China and Malaysia, two neighbours facing each other across the sea, enjoy a time-honoured friendship. Trade between the two countries started over 2,000 years ago.

During the Ming Dynasty (14th-­17th century), Zheng He, a Chinese navigator, came to Malacca five times on seven sea voyages. A record of friendly China-Malaysia exchanges exists with many stories, such as those of Bukit Cina and the King’s Well, still told today.

People today remember Zheng He for what he did. His aspiration, as the records show, was to seek friendship and develop trade with neighbours.

He and his people helped local military and civilians build city walls, drive away pirates, settle conflicts and keep peace at sea. They also passed on agricultural and manufacturing technologies and medical skills to the local people to help with their lives and daily work.

Today, when we look back at that past episode in China-Malaysia exchanges, we also admire Zheng He for what he did not do. When he arrived in this land of prosperity commanding what was then the most powerful fleet in the world, he engaged in nothing like plundering, expansion or colonisation.

Instead, he became known for his goodwill and moves of peace, of which people still keep fond memories. What he did speaks volumes of the Chinese belief that “one should not do to others what he doesn’t want others to do to him”.

It also bears testimony to the Chinese wisdom that “one needs to help others achieve success if he wants success for himself”. Zheng He’s dedication to peace and readiness to reach out and help others show the essence of the Chinese philosophy, where peace and good neighbourliness always come first. It also constitutes part of the cultural legacy that brings countries in the region together.

Today, China and Malaysia are each other’s trustworthy friend. We have formed a comprehensive strategic partnership and enjoy political mutual trust and mutual respect. The leaders of our two countries visit each other often and maintain close communication.

In May last year, visiting Prime Minister Najib Razak and I attended celebrations marking the 40th anniversary of diplomatic relations at the West Hall of the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, the place where the senior generation of our leaders signed the Joint Communiqué in 1974 to establish diplomatic ties between China and Malaysia.

Over the years, our two countries have supported each other on major issues we are concerned with and jointly contributed to equity and justice in the world. Not long ago, the first joint military exercise was carried out by our militaries in Malacca, marking a major step forward in our defence cooperation.

Economically, we have had much to offer each other in win-win cooperation. Our bilateral trade has topped US$100bil (RM436.6bil).

China has been Malaysia’s largest trading partner for seven years straight, and Malaysia is now China’s biggest trading partner among Asean countries.

China’s trade with Malaysia accounts for one-fifth of its total trade with Asean. The foundation is sound for our cooperation in economy, trade, finance, infrastructure, agriculture, forestry and fishery.

Our high-tech cooperation is even reaching to the sky and seas. As a result, not only have our peoples have benefited from such cooperation; the whole region has also shared in the benefits.

People in our two countries are eager to learn from and help each other. In both China and Malaysia, badminton is a popular sport. The names of world-class players such as Lin Dan and Lee Chong Wei are known to almost every household.

As competitors and athletes aspiring for excellence, they battle each other on the badminton course. After the games, they are good friends who exchange text greetings on festivals.

China’s great poet Li Bai of the Tang Dynasty (7th-10th century) once wrote of friendship that “true friendship is revealed through adversity, and success becomes nothing when it is not shared”.

A Malaysian saying carries something of a similar effect: Bukit sama didaki, lurah sama dituruni (together we will climb the mountains and together we will cross the valleys).”

When a massive earthquake hit China in Wenchuan, Sichuan province in 2008, Malaysia raced against time to extend a helping hand. Its people from all walks of life raised as much as 200 million yuan (RM136.5mil), making Malaysia one of the biggest donors to the disaster-stricken areas.

And shortly after Malaysia Air­lines Flight MH370 lost contact, I spoke with Prime Minister Najib Razak on the phone for thorough discussions on the search and rescue mission. In times of adversity, China and Malaysia have always stood with and supported each other.

The Chinese community in Malaysia has contributed their share to local economic development, social harmony and amity among ethnic groups. They have served as a special bond contributing to China-Malaysia friendship.

Over the past 40 years, cooperation between China and Malaysia has set a good example of friendly exchanges between countries in the region. Standing at a new starting point for development in our relations for the next four decades, our two countries will continue to view and grow our relations from a strategic perspective, deepen strategic mutual trust, advance mutually beneficial cooperation, expand people-to-people and cultural exchanges, and carry forward our traditional friendship.

China has set the goal to complete the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020. It has much in common with Malaysia’s Vision 2020.

As China is advancing the initiative of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, encouraging mass entrepreneurship and innovation, and transforming and upgrading its economic structure, Malaysia is gearing toward all-round economic transformation with the New Economic Model aimed at more robust growth.

I see this as offering each other a perfect chance to boost development. We may draw on our respective strengths and conduct more cooperation on production capacity. We may encourage more enterprises to take part in the development of the industrial parks in Qinzhou and Kuantan, enhance infrastructure building and increase connectivity.

Such cooperation will produce huge development dividends to ensure steady growth and make life better for our people. China and Malaysia both play a major role in turning East Asia into a major pole and sustaining steady global growth. I have great confidence that our mutually beneficial cooperation will hold out even brighter prospects.

China-Asean relations are a major cornerstone for peace, stability, development and prosperity in the region. The upcoming East Asia leaders’ meetings will be held at a time when the Asean Community is to be formally established.

This carries a special and landmark significance. Given the lingering impact of the international financial crisis and the generally downward economic trend, it is all the more important for countries in the region to stand in solidarity and work with each other for common development and prosperity.

Ours is a time with interwoven traditional and non-traditional security challenges, on top of which external interference has led to incessant turbulences in some parts of the world and caused serious spillover effects. It falls upon countries in the region to cherish the harmonious coexistence of different cultures and development paths in the region, and work together to uphold regional peace and stability for the long run.

Sincerity, friendship, mutual benefit and win-win outcomes were what Zheng He stood for when his ships took him to Malacca. They are still the principles guiding the growth of China-Malaysia relations today.

They represent the trend of the times and aspiration of the people, not only in China and Malaysia but region-wide. It is our common goal that deserves our common effort.

I am confident that with joint efforts, China-Malaysia relations and cooperation in the region, will grow steadily and become more mature, and will head toward greater mutual benefit, mutual trust, prosperity and common development.

BY LI KEQIANG

Li Keqiang is Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China. The views expressed here are entirely the writer’s own.

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A region evolves with rising China

South-East Asia’s complex big power relations demand careful and considered understanding, where frequent complications and familiar gut reactions do not help.

WHEN countries have difficulty relating to a rising China, part of the problem lies in not understanding where China is heading and not knowing what it will become.

The sheer scale of China’s development and the weight of its trajectory mean that the impact of its rise on the rest of Asia and the world is bound to be considerable and profound.

As a frame of reference, the future of today’s China is often seen in the context of its past: a “Middle Kingdom” entity, the heart of an Asian tributary system, a regional superpower with global pretensions whose once closed-door policy is opening to the world.

Yet none of these references fits because modern China’s pace of change is as rapid as it is vast. Not only is it a post-Deng China, it is now into the fourth- and fifth-generation leadership of post-Dengist society.

A sense of a likely future China may then be deduced through elimination, by discarding what it is unlikely to be.

These include a communist superpower, a nation shaped by a distinct ideology, and one led by a powerful charismatic individual. But what of those things, admittedly few, that it will still be?

One of these is rule by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), particularly since single party rule continues to be a central bastion of the status quo. Yet even this requires qualification, if not some revision, and is already subject to much speculation.

The CCP has had to undergo some redefinition as circumstances evolve. The state socialism it championed underwent a social(ist) market phase to emerge as state capitalism.

Ideology continues to be diluted as dogma fritters away. Conservatives and reformists both within and outside China agree the trend is irreversible if not also inevitable.

Just about the only thing that a future China is still certain to be is a unitary state. But even this has to be qualified again.

What is now regarded as Greater China – the People’s Republic of China on the mainland, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan – are unlikely to be fused into one singularly cohesive whole anytime soon.

Yet they are moving together towards a unitary economy, the basis of the modern nation state. Such a trend is beyond the protestations of democrats and the comprehension of many strategists.

At the same time, provinces are slowly moving towards greater autonomy in economic matters, including in dealings with neighbouring countries. A country as large as China cannot endure too long under strict centralised rule.

And China has endured longer than all others, with the country now into its fifth millennium of continued statehood. These trends and movements take time and may seem imperceptible for other countries, but they are par for the course with China’s enormous timelines.

For decades now, Chinese authorities have also introduced elections at local levels with invited inputs from the Carter Center. Voting has been practised in village and provincial levels, and despite occasional fits and starts the trend is towards a controlled political opening with assured stability.

All of this contributes to the near-incomprehension of today’s China on the part of external observers. A survey of their attitudes, assumptions and responses in any given week attests to this reality.

Questions of whether China (meaning Beijing) can ever govern Taiwan, or even understand Hong Kong, are typical. The real risk of observers not seeing the wood for the trees is ever-present.

A debate of sorts has emerged over China’s likely reaction to a possible win by Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in next January’s election. Pessimists who fret over their own cynical pronouncements fail to realise that China is playing for bigger stakes than petty party feuding.

China’s interest in Taipei is Taiwan, not necessarily a Kuomintang (KMT) Taiwan. A lately declining KMT under President Ma Ying-jou has sufficiently energised pragmatists in Beijing to be diplomatic towards the DPP.

Another perennial issue is the presumed rivalry between the US and China. Although competition exists between them, they have more in common than at variance for now and the foreseeable future.

Their shared interests include international security and a single global economy in which both hold the largest stakes. Rivalry in these core areas compromises the interests of both without enlarging opportunities for either.

An understanding of that basic reality is shared between US and Chinese leaders, but apparently not by Japanese ones. The Abe administration is still stuck between old wartime anxieties and proudly snubbing Beijing.

However, China should also not expect anything but Abe’s cancellation of a visit on Sept 3. The occasion, with Western leaders absent, is being presented by some in China as celebrating its victory over Japan.

China: Military parade not aimed at any country

China says its upcoming September 3rd military parade is part of commemorations for the 70th anniversary of its victory in the war of resistance against Japanese aggression, and is not specifically aimed at any country.http://t.cn/RyzoMBy

Nonetheless, the Abe government remains an activist one in provoking competition with China over military issues. Its White Paper released last month inflates China’s maritime military capabilities and even conflicts with US calculations.

Besides the US, Taiwan and Japan, the other barometer of China’s rise as seen through its foreign relations is Asean.

China regards Asean wariness of its territorial assertiveness as limited and negotiable, since not all member countries have rival claims to offshore territory. But Beijing may seriously be underestimating Asean’s sense of solidarity, given not just Asean’s community-building agenda but also its common resolve to develop community cohesiveness.

The established links between China and Asean’s newer CLMV members (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam) are both limited and fraying in places. Beijing needs to rebuild trust and good faith within Asean as much as in North-East Asia.

China has thus emphasised multi-level, multi-sectoral joint ventures both bilaterally and collectively. Its proposals for a Maritime Silk Road and a One Belt, One Road link to Europe are backed by the China-Asean Maritime Cooperation Fund, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the New Development (Brics) Bank and China’s own solvency.

On the ground however, Asean collectively seeks enlarged trade volumes with China. However, China’s currency devaluations and the subsequent jolts to regional currencies compromise these goals.

With Indonesia, China is extending cooperation in fighting drug trafficking as Jakarta favours using the yuan for bilateral trade. With Malaysia, China is building linkages in education and industrial development.

Thailand’s post-coup government is seen as leaning towards China, thanks in part to a US snub. Now Thai-Chinese ties are growing over purchases of stockpiled Thai rice and even the prospect of a Kra Isthmus canal.

China’s relations with Vietnam and more so the Philippines will require more time and work. Ironically, Unctad trade data identifies the Philippine economy as the biggest regional beneficiary of China’s rise.

Beijing’s ties with the other Asean countries may be less complicated but still require attention and constant tending. Its record of fully understanding Asean is not impressive.

Overall, Beijing’s relations with Asean and its member nations are economic, diplomatic and socio-cultural, without political interference in their domestic matters. This contrasts with Washington’s largely military posturing and its political pressures on issues of democracy and human rights.

China’s impact on this region is likely to remain non-political and non-military – differing from US interaction. This asymmetry makes up much of South-East Asia’s strategic status quo.

Whether and how it will endure, and whether it deserves to remain, still have to be seen.

By Bunn Nagara Behind the Headlines

Bunn Nagara is a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia.

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CASS briefing on significance of War of Resistance http://t.cn/RyzoTdB

China is preparing to mark the 70th anniversary of Victory in the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences is currently holding a press conference in Beijing on the significance of the V-Day anniversary.