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China seems to be winning the tariff war even as Trump threatens to impose a massive increase of tariffs on Chinese imports in response to the republic's announcement of new export controls on rare earths. — Getty Images/AFP
South-east asia, once only a bruising trade war’s secondary victim, should now have asean showing its mettle as china wins.
BEYOND multiple global uncertainties are two core fundamentals: Us-china relations being the world’s most important bilateral relationship, and economics determining much of everything else.
This makes the trade war between the world’s two biggest economies pivotal to all. Multiple spheres in various regions are impacted accordingly.
That much is the main plot in today’s geopolitics. Problems tend to arise when the script is amended without warning, explanation or acknowledgement.
US President Donald Trump has sought a personal meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping since last year, but that will happen only next year. Why does it take two years for such a crucial event to occur?
It is precisely because of the summit’s importance that it has to take so long. Unlike MOUS, summits do not set the tone of an intended agreement but to cap what has already been agreed.
Transnational deals are too important to be left to formal summits with their pomp and pageantry. The serious business of negotiations by government experts and specialists differs vastly from the PR theatre of official photo opportunities.
The months and years between signalling interest in a summit and actually holding it are for senior officials to work out sufficiently agreeable terms to constitute a deal. That period of talks by officials began informally last year between the incoming US administration and China’s incumbent team.
It is a period now effectively coming to a close in ending the trade war, but still only unofficially. The basic agreement that is now done in all but writing has the US broadly conceding to China’s terms.
China is the only country that has pushed back on Trump’s tariffs, with resounding effect as recent events show.
After Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s grating condescension about supplying China with only Nvidia’s sub-par microchips, Beijing blocked all of Nvidia’s chips. Nvidia boss Jensen Huang said China’s own chip development is only “nano seconds behind” his company’s best products.
In agriculture, China has stopped buying US soybeans for supplies from Brazil and elsewhere. With US farmers devastated, China again demonstrated considerable leverage.
With Trump clamping down on countries buying Russian and Iranian oil and gas, India was hit with high additional tariffs, but not China. Instead, China raised Russian gas supplies with the Power of Siberia (POS) pipeline and now also POS 2.
China is also importing more than a million barrels of Iranian oil daily, amounting to almost 90% of Iran’s output. These major purchases were never going to be impacted by US restrictions.
Trump declared victory on Tiktok but it was a net gain for China. Beijing refused to sell Tiktok’s proprietary algorithm, the heart and brain of the winning platform.
A copy of the original algorithm was supplied to US investors, and China’s Bytedance owns just under 20% of US Tiktok – yet is entitled to 50% of US profits. US negotiators must have realised that was the most they could get from China’s tough bargaining position and accepted it.
China has introduced new restrictions on rare earth exports, launched an antitrust probe into US chip giant Qualcomm, and will raise port fees for US ships in return. In virtually every sector China is fighting back through tit-for-tat action and new policies.
If there is still any doubt that China is leading the charge of what remains of the trade war, its use of carrots and sticks to access the US market confirms it. Beijing has offered more than a trillion dollars (RM4.2 trillion) of investment in the US through Chinese companies admitted there.
These could include Chinese electric vehicle companies, which Trump last year said he would invite to the US to provide jobs. Only the stronger economy can dish out inducements of such proportions to the relatively subordinate economy.
Such is the substance of a negotiated trade peace. Ultimately, Trump is less concerned about what actually makes a trade victory than what can be interpreted and portrayed as his personal triumph.
He is anxious to gain snatches of a win between trade skirmishes, however fleeting or questionable, and China is only too happy to provide them to win the trade war. More of this can be expected at next year’s summit.
Meanwhile, Louis Gave of Hong Kong’s Gavekal Research has declared China’s trade war victory. South-east Asia should likewise flip the old script to its favour.
Asean countries are not just collateral economies subjected to the whims of a trade conflict. When China takes a beating, South-east Asia was assumed to be beaten also.
But the US still hopes to obtain from this region what it failed to get from China. To do this it needs to keep up appearances that it is winning over China as the centre of global supply chains.
US should speak nicely when seeking help from China: Chinese experts
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Photo:CGTN
US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, a US senior official who is believed to be pragmatic and less hawkish toward China than many of her peers, has arrived Guangzhou, capital of South China’s Guangdong Province, and kicked off her 6-day visit to China from Thursday to Tuesday (April 4-9), with Chinese experts saying on Friday that Yellen is trying to seek helps from China to solve US economic challenges, and they said US officials need to adjust its arrogant attitude and speak nicely when asking helps.
He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and Vice Premier of the State Council, has met with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in Guangzhou. The two sides discussed in-depth key issues related to the global, economic and financial fields of China and the US.
He said the main task for this meeting is to implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state in their meetings and telephone dialogue, and seek to provide appropriate responses to key concerns in China-US economic relations, state broadcaster CCTV reported on Friday.
“I opened meetings with Vice Premier He Lifeng for frank and substantive conversations on our bilateral economic relationship. It is crucial that the two largest economies in the world seek progress on global challenges and closely communicate on areas of concern,” Yellen said in a post on social media platform X on Friday afternoon.
On Friday, Yellen also had round-table discussions with economic experts and business leaders from the US and some other countries from Europe and Japan to discuss the economic situation of Chinese market, as well as opportunities and challenges linked to the Chinese economy. Yellen also attended an event with leading representatives of the American business community in China, hosted by AmCham China, and delivered remarks on the bilateral economic relationship.
According to her released schedule in coming days, which expected to include meetings with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and senior Chinese officials who in charge different economic and financial sectors of China, analysts said Yellen’s trip eyes on further stabilizing the China-US relations as US President Joe Biden doesn’t want a fragile and uncertain bilateral ties with China, and Washington needs China’s cooperation to solve its headaches at home: a national debt problem and save US backward production capacity by adding pressure to China’s development in new energy technologies with the pretext of “overcapacity.”
Jin Canrong, the associate dean of the School of International Studies at the Renmin University of China, told the Global Times on Friday that “Yellen is an official who is different from the hawkish ones in Washington who actively push for confrontation with China, she is relatively pragmatic and moderate.”
In the phone call between the presidents of the two countries on Tuesday evening, Biden is probably asking for China to permit Yellen’s visit, as we can see Yellen kicks off her visit very soon after the phone call, which means that the US has prepared for the visit for a long time, and they are just waiting for China’s green light, Jin said.
“According to this, we can have a conclusion that the US is asking for something urgent. Washington’s national debt problem could be the top of the agenda. Yellen might ask help from China in the field of monetary policy,” Jin noted.
The Congressional Budget Office warned in its latest projections that US federal government debt is on a path from 97 percent of GDP last year to 116 percent by 2034, which is higher even than in World War II. The actual outlook is likely worse, Bloomberg reported on April 2.
The CNBC reported on March 1 that the debt load of the US is growing at a quicker clip in recent months, increasing about $1 trillion nearly every 100 days.
Li Yong, a senior research fellow at the China Association of International Trade, told the Global Times on Friday that in this visit, the Biden administration is seeking the further stabilization of China-US relations in the presidential election year. “The two sides are expected to discuss about coordination on macroeconomic policy and trade, and this is not only important to China and the US, but also significant to the world.”
But as a US official with pragmatic and relatively friendly image to China, Yellen this time presented her tough stance in some areas. According to the website of US Department of Treasury, “During her engagements in China, Secretary Yellen will advocate for American workers and businesses to ensure they are treated fairly, including by pressing Chinese counterparts on unfair trade practices and underscoring the global economic consequences of Chinese industrial overcapacity.”
Washington will not allow “a glut of Chinese production to wipe out American manufacturers of green technology,” Yellen has warned ahead of a trip to China, the Financial Times reported on Thursday.
Li said the US should take the issue about “overcapacity” more objectively, because China’s productive capacity is determined by the global demand and the efficiency and market size of China.
Lü Xiang, a research fellow on US studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times that Yellen’s expression is a bad signal for China-US trade ties, as this is implying that when the US development in areas like new energy and electric vehicle (EV) is facing backward or even failure, Washington is trying to contain China’s productive capacity to protect its backward capacity.
“This is very disappointing, as this is indecent for a US Secretary of Treasury to blame and contain China’s development in advanced areas to protect US’ backward productive capacity,” Lü noted.
At present, China’s EV export and photovoltaic industry have unshakable status in the world market, the US’ measure to contain China in these fields will receive no outcomes, Lü said. “Chinese economic and financial officials can give Yellen a good lecture about how to mobilize resources in the market and whole society to develop a new industry. The EV industry is an example of the success of China’s market economy.”
Chinese analysts said that Yellen and the Biden administration should understand that, if they are coming to China to ask for help and cooperation, they need to adjust their arrogant attitude and speak nicely, and don’t ask for unfair competition to confront and contain China, who will never submit to pressure based on hegemonic logic.
The world in 2024 is not peaceful. From great power competition to regional conflicts, to numerous global challenges, the global landscape seems to be changing every day. Will the confrontation between Russia and the West lead to a "Cold War ...
Hopefully, more countries in the region will join the family of maintaining peace and stability and together promote greater achievements in China-ASEAN relations. We also sincerely look forward to continuing joining hands with ASEAN countries, taking the opportunity of the 70th anniversary of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence this year to vigorously carry forward the Bandung Spirit that calls for solidarity, friendship and cooperation, to eliminate external interference, enhance solidarity and cooperation, safeguard peace and tranquility and provide more positive energy and stability to the region and the world.
The US' "China Military Power report," like its previous editions, ignores the facts and is filled with bias, spreading the "China threats" theory which only serves as an excuse to maintain its military hegemony, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Friday, in response to a Pentagon report that warned Beijing is building up its nuclear and long-range missiles arsenal "faster than previous projections."
The newly-released annual Pentagon document claimed that China has more than 500 operational nuclear warheads as of May 2023, surpassing earlier projections, and forecast that China would likely have more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030.
Describing China as a "pacing challenge," the US Defense Department report also said that Beijing may be exploring the development of conventionally-armed long-range missiles that could reach the US. It said that Beijing has completed the construction of three new fields of long-range ballistic missiles silos.
Mao Ning, a spokesperson from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said on Friday that China is firmly committed to a defensive nuclear strategy, and has always maintained nuclear forces at the lowest level required for national security, and has no intention of engaging in a nuclear arms race with any country.
China has a unique nuclear policy among nuclear weapon states and has maintained a high degree of stability, consistency and predictability, Mao said, "No country will be threatened by China's nuclear weapons as long as it does not use or threaten to use them against China."
We urge the US to abandon its Cold War mentality and hegemonic logic, to view China's strategic intentions and national defense development objectively and rationally, to stop publishing such irresponsible reports year after year, and to take practical actions to maintain the stability of the military-to-military relationship between the two sides, Mao said.
Chinese military expert Zhang Junshe said that it's hilarious that a country with more than 5,000 nuclear warheads says another nation poses a threat.
In 2020, Fu Cong, then director general of the Department of Arms Control and Disarmament, cited statistics from renowned international think tanks, pointing out that the US nuclear arsenal stands at about 5,800 nuclear warheads.
Even if China does have 500 nuclear warheads, they are not even close to the size of the US' arsenal. In addition, the number of US strategic nuclear submarines, strategic bombers, and the number of warheads they carry are far higher than any other country in the world, including China, Zhang remarked.
According to Zhang, the US is developing a new generation of strategic nuclear weapons, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), sea-based strategic missiles and airborne nuclear weapons, a new generation of nuclear submarines, and strategic bombers.
In addition, the US is miniaturizing nuclear weapons for so-called tactical use, namely, lowering the threshold for the use of tactical nuclear weapons, Zhang said, "The US is also considering resuming the storage of nuclear weapons in other countries, such as the UK, a Cold War era practice of nuclear sharing with allies."
The hyping of the "China threats" is nothing but a search for excuses for Washington's uncontrolled nuclear arsenal expansion, and to discredit and suppress China's normal military development, so as to maintain absolute military superiority, Zhang said.
'Undesirable hobby'
The report smeared China's military modernization as a means of projecting power across the Pacific region and ultimately around the globe, saying China's strength is growing in all the domains of warfare, including the traditional land, air and sea, as well as nuclear, cyber and space, according to CNN.
The 212-page report also mentioned the word "Taiwan" 261 times, highlighting the Chinese mainland's "military pressure" against the island.
The US is worried that the increase of the Chinese People's Liberation Army's military capability could pose challenges to US military hegemony, thus affecting the US political hegemony and global hegemony, Chinese military expert and TV commentator Song Zhongping told the Global Times on Friday.
Given that the report was released ahead of the Beijing Xiangshan Forum, a China-hosted platform on defense and security issues, Chinese analysts believed it was also aimed at entrapping Chinese neighbors, cajoling them to resist and oppose China's normal military development so that they can be better "utilized" by the US in the Asia-Pacific region.
As the world's largest nuclear state, the US has not made a commitment not to be the first to use nuclear weapons, as China has done, as well as a commitment not to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear countries and regions. Instead, the US has even been aggressive, emphasizing the pre-emptive use of nuclear forces, according to Zhang.
The nuclear strategy of the US is global in its scope. When it provides nuclear umbrellas and even nuclear sharing to some allies, it poses a serious threat to other countries, and at the same time is extremely destructive to nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation around the world, and ultimately exacerbates regional tensions, Song said.
In July, the US deployed a nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine to South Korea for the first time since 1980s. North Korea later fired two short-range ballistic missiles into its eastern waters as a response to the "grave provocation," media reported.
The problem that the US poses to global security is its nuclear superiority and military power, said a Beijing-based expert. "When it comes to the resolution of regional crises, the US is inclined to resort to the use of force, either by itself or through its allies. And the US' absolute military strength and nuclear power has further encouraged that undesirable hobby."
"The US, with the largest and most advanced nuclear arsenal in the world, follows a first-use nuclear deterrence policy, keeps making enormous investment to upgrade its nuclear triad, advances forward deployment of strategic forces, and strengthens extended deterrence for its allies," Mao said. "These policies and acts heighten the risk of a nuclear arms race and nuclear conflict, and will only adversely affect the global strategic security environment."
US media is currently attempting to redirect the current Israel-Palestine conflict toward the rise of China. The New York Times, in an article titled "New Global Divisions on View as Biden Goes to Israel and Putin to China," directly contrasts .
A Canadian CP-140 plane illegally entered China's airspace
China's military power only makes those with malicious intent feel 'threatened'
PLA Photo:VCG
The US Department of Defense (DoD) released its annual report to Congress on "Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China" (China military power report) on Thursday. People familiar with China-US relations know that since 2000, the Pentagon has issued this report every year, which basically compiles some public information, including media reports with unknown sources, into a "collection of annual China threat theories" in a bid to request funding from Congress and deceive allies into buying US weapons. As a result, one can imagine the level of professionalism in this report.
The China military power report can be roughly divided into three parts. First, it assesses China's current military capabilities without any real basis. Second, it selectively hypes China's military activities over the past year. Third, it distorts and speculates about China's military intentions. This year's report has an additional section - complaints about China's "resistance" to military-to-military communications with the US.
By combining these factors, the US attempts to fabricate a terrifying image of China, whose military strength is rapidly increasing, military behavior is becoming more aggressive, and "military ambitions" are insufficiently transparent. All the malicious speculations and smears about China's military in the report are far from the reality of China's military situation, but instead resemble a reflection of the US military itself.
The Pentagon's report always focuses on China's modernization of its nuclear capabilities and makes groundless speculations and comments on the situation in the Taiwan Straits. It is worth noting that this year's report claims that the DoD estimates that China possessed more than 500 operational nuclear warheads as of May 2023 - on track to exceeding previous projections, and that China will probably have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030. In the 2020 report, the DoD made its first public estimate of China's nuclear warheads, and said its nuclear arsenal was slightly more than 200. In just three years, the number of China's nuclear warheads in the US report has more than doubled. Common sense dictates that on such a significant issue, the US report has not shown the required rigor. The specific number depends on the needs of the Pentagon and Washington at different times.
The US needs to understand two points. First, China pursues the strategic thinking of active defense, and the deployment of nuclear forces is part of its defense strategy. However, no matter how many nuclear warheads China has or how strong its defense capabilities are, they will not become violent tools for China to dominate the world, as is the case with the US military. Instead, they are a strong guarantee for China to safeguard its national sovereignty, security, and development interests, as well as regional and global peace. Second, the development of China's defense force has its own established pace, it does not target any specific country, but it firmly safeguards China's sovereignty, security, and developmental interests. As long as China has not achieved reunification and external forces continue to interfere without restraint, China will not cease to strengthen its defense capabilities.
In addition, many have also noticed that this year's report highlights the PLA's so-called coercive and risky operational behavior in the past two years. The Pentagon even presented videos and photos of Chinese military aircraft "intercepting US military aircraft flying in international airspace with dangerous maneuvers," claiming Chinese aircraft have adopted more dangerous, coercive and provocative actions toward the US and its allies in the airspace of East China Sea and South China Sea. However, what the Pentagon never mentions is that this so-called international airspace is primarily located along China's coast, with some US aircraft even intruding into China's territorial waters, while none of these incidents occurred along the US coast. Doesn't this already make the point clear? If we were to reverse the situation, in an atmosphere where even harmless balloons create a sense of impending crisis in Washington, the reaction from the US side would likely be far more significant if Chinese warships or aircraft appeared in international waters and airspace outside San Francisco Bay, beyond just what is termed "dangerous intercepts."
The US, with the most powerful armed forces in the world, has become one of the most enthusiastic proponents of the so-called "Chinese military threat" theory, which in itself is abnormal. If the US had no ill intentions toward China, has no desire to interfere with China's reunification efforts, and has no intention of conflict or suppression, it would not perceive such a strong "threat" from China's peaceful armed forces. In the past year, the actions of the US military have made it even clearer who the escalating threat in the Asia-Pacific region truly is and what poses the greatest challenge to peace and stability in that region.
At roughly the same time as the report's release, multiple US military bases in the Middle East came under consecutive attacks. The US State Department also issued a rare worldwide caution alert citing potential for terrorist attacks, demonstrations or violent actions against US citizens and interests. All of these factors indicate that the real danger facing the US does not actually stem from its imagined challenge to its position of leadership by China. Rather, it arises from its excessive interventions and the blowback resulting from creating tension and inciting the risk of war on a global scale. This is what the US truly needs to pay attention to and reflect upon.
Some high-stakes diplomacy already in motion, ahead of the key G20 summit that kicks off tomorrow (Nov 15) in Bali. Leaders of the world's two biggest superpowers have been meeting face-to-face. Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Joe Biden have stressed the need to manage their differences and avoid conflict between their nations.
Xi tells Biden: We must put China-U.S. ties back on right track
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Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with US President Joe Biden upon request in Bali, Indonesia, Nov. 14, 2022. Photo: Xinhua
Current state of China-US relations is not in the fundamental interests of the two countries and peoples, and is not ...
Chinese President Xi Jinping, during meeting with US President Joe Biden on Monday in Bali, Indonesia, said they should chart the right course for the development of bilateral relations and push bilateral ties back to the track of healthy and stable development.
Xi said during the meeting that China and the US have braced winds and rains in their more than 50 years of engagement, from the establishment of diplomatic relations until today. There have been gains and losses, experience and lessons. History is the best textbook and China and the US should take history as a reference and look to the future.
The current situation of China-US relations does not conform to the interests of the two countries and their peoples, now does it conform to the expectations of the international community, Xi said.
As leaders of two major countries, we should hold the helm and find the right direction for the development of bilateral relations and push ties to improve. Politicians should think about both their own country's development path and how to get along with other countries and the world, said Xi.
As leaders of two major countries, we should find the right way. Politicians should think about both their own country's development path and how to get along with other countries and the world, said Xi.
Xi noted the changes of the times are unfolding in an unprecedented way and human society is facing unprecedented challenges, and the world is at a crossroads. We care, and all countries in the world care about where they are going.
The international community expects China and the US to handle our relations well. Our meeting today has attracted worldwide attention. We should work together with other countries to inject hope for world peace, confidence in global stability and momentum for collective development, Xi said.
He expressed willingness to continue candid and in-depth exchanges with the US president on strategic issues in China-US ties and key global and regional issues.
Xi said he looks forward to working with the US president to push bilateral relations back on the track of healthy and stable development so as to benefit both countries and the world.
The two leaders met on the sidelines of the G20 summit to be held in Indonesia on Tuesday and Wednesday. Xi told Biden that though the two leaders have remained in communication via video-conferences, phone calls and letters, none of these can really take the place of face-to-face exchanges.
President Xi arrived at the island of Bali on Monday afternoon. As a guard of honor paid salutes alongside the red carpet, some local youths in national costume played traditional Indonesian musical instruments, while others performed a traditional Bali dance. Young students cheered in Chinese "Welcome! Welcome!" while waving the Chinese and Indonesian flags, CCTV reported.
According to CCTV, local people also gathered along the roads from the airport to the hotel where Xi and his wife Peng Liyuan were going to stay, waving the Chinese and Indonesian flags to express their warmest welcome on their arrival.
Compared with China, US has little resonance in developing world: Martin Jacques
G20 Indonesia Photo:VCG
The forthcoming G20 meeting reflects both positives and negatives in the current global situation. That it is being held in Indonesia, one of the largest developing countries, sends a positive signal to the world. As does the fact that ASEAN, of which it is a member, is non-aligned, opposed to blocs, and hugely engaged with China. But then there are the negatives. The US, supported by its closest allies, could seek to hijack the meeting for an anti-Russian tirade, poisoning the atmosphere and dividing the G20 at a time when the world faces the worst economic outlook since the 2008 financial crisis.
The first G20 summit in Washington DC in 2008 stands in stark contrast. It adopted, with overwhelming support, the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus ever undertaken, thereby averting the worst depression since the 1930s. In contrast to this remarkable display of unity, Bali will be a forceful reminder of how divided the world now is. In 2008, China and the US were on the same page. In 2022, the US now regards China as its sworn enemy. The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden is likely to remind us of this.
Although the US has hitherto refrained from calling the present US-China relationship a cold war, this is patently the American playbook. The aim is to contain and isolate China, to undermine its links with the rest of the world, and thereby reverse the tide of China's rise. The attempt to cut China off from American semi-conductor technology is the latest example. Be that as it may, the US is finding it far more difficult to isolate China than it anticipated. The world is very different from what it was during the Cold War when it was divided into two hostile and hermetically sealed blocs.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a very good example of how things have changed. The US sought to erect an economic blockade around Russia by means of economic sanctions. Europe went along with this but most of the world did not, a classic example being India. Economic sanctions haven't worked in the way intended. If the US can't economically isolate Russia, then there is zero chance that it could isolate China, which, as the world's largest trading nation, is hugely more important to the global economy than Russia.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict proved to be a highly successful recruiting sergeant in Europe for a closer US-Europe relationship. Since the end of the Cold War, there had been a gradual process of distancing between Europe and the US. This now came to a screeching halt, replaced by a new enthusiasm for the Atlantic alliance, combined with increased hostility toward China, with China and Russia portrayed as identical. But, in a crucial intervention, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently spelt out the importance of China to Germany's future. He went to China and met with Xi, the first Western leader to do so since the pandemic. He publicly rejected the idea of decoupling.
He then reaffirmed Germany's opposition to dividing the world into rival blocs. This goes against the grain of post-Ukraine trends in Europe, exemplified by Britain, the US' ever-willing and reliable lapdog. Scholz has drawn a line and indicated an important degree of continuity with Angela Merkel's previous approach to China. It will be interesting, in this context, to hear what French President Emmanuel Macron says in Bali during his meeting with Xi. The signs are that Europe's commitment to strategic autonomy has not been erased, but is now being quietly reasserted, that its relationship with China will continue to grow, and that it will keep its distance from America's cold war aspirations.
Europe will remain an important weathervane of geopolitical alignments. But, however autonomous it might or might not become, it will, for manifold reasons, tend to lean toward America. ASEAN is very different from Europe, but at least as important. It is a template for a new kind of international order. With extraordinary skill, it has managed to remain aloof from US-China divisions, pursue relations with both, while, given its regional proximity to China, being transformed by China's economic rise. It is the most interesting example of how a group of countries can negotiate a new kind of close and harmonious relationship with China. The US has wisely sought to develop a closer relationship with ASEAN, but, barring a huge misstep by China, it will never displace China's importance for them.
So what does the future hold? America will not be able to contain China. The latter will remain deeply connected with the world. China's greatest strength is the close relationship it has built with the developing world. America's alliance system, in contrast, dates back to the postwar world. It is rooted in the past. It is composed essentially of a bunch of declining developed countries, mainly European, plus Japan, Canada, and Australia. Compared with China, the US has little resonance in the developing world. This is an enormous strategic weakness. These are some of the parameters which will shape the future. How that future might actually evolve in practice, of course, is another matter. We live in very unpredictable times.
The author was until recently a senior fellow at the Department of Politics and International Studies at Cambridge University. He is a visiting professor at the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University and a senior fellow at the China Institute, Fudan University. Follow him on twitter @martjacques. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn
Tesla's founder Elon Musk inks a deal to purchase Twitter with $44 billion in cash. Photo: website
News about Elon Musk's Twitter takeover has sparked continuous heated discussions in the US recently. The focus of some, however, has apparently been off the track. A New York Times reporter tweeted to question whether Twitter would become one of the platforms Beijing will gain leverage over in the future. It was re-tweeted and commented on by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. There are also voices saying that Musk will have to seek a balance between his support for free speech and his business activities in China, and that China will exert influence on Twitter through Musk.
Many American media outlets didn't forget to "remind" people of the fact that Musk once "praised" China, and he encouraged people to visit China and see for themselves. At a critical moment when China and the US were locked in trade frictions in 2019, Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory kicked into production. In merely over a year, Shanghai-made Teslas have accounted for more than half of Tesla's global delivery. Musk has dealt a lot with China and spoke out some truths about China's economy, they are regarded as "original sins" of Musk by some Americans. Many link Musk's Twitter deal with China and raise it to the level of "risks" or "threats", which shows how narrow the room for pragmatism and rationality toward China in the US has become. Similar incidents have become common in the US. Making an issue of China in every possible way has already become an "American disease." In the face of China's growing comprehensive national power that is closing the gap with the US', the confidence of many political elites in Washington has been declining. And these people are showing anxiety and over-sensitivity toward China, not letting go of any opportunity to hype the "China threat" theory. After Musk acquired Twitter, some from American media even urged Musk to cut off his business ties with China to "guarantee freedom of speech." Such extreme overbearingness hilariously overlaps their weakness.
An interesting phenomenon is that many China security-related discussions contain various "private interests" if you look at them closely. Some businesspeople, such as George Soros, blamed China for their failure due to their wrong investment decisions in China. Others try to show their allegiance to the US. For example, Bezos often stresses security with a high-profile patriotic posture, but what he actually eyes are Pentagon orders that are highly profitable. More lawmakers and politicians touch on the China topic in an exaggerated and forcible way, through which they attack opponents as "weak." The "China Threat" is becoming a tacit business approach or a code to seek attention.
From the national perspective, Sinophobia which is currently rampant in American society is not fundamentally different from "Japanophobia" that prevailed in the 1980s and 1990s. In both cases, the US regards a "chaser" as competitor, on which the US tried to suppress by any means to ensure its own competitive advantage. But the end of the story will be different because there is no way that Washington can overwhelm China in the same way that it coerced Japan to sign a Plaza Accord. Chinese people do not believe in fallacies, nor are we afraid of evil forces. We will never yield to threats or coercion. As to words and deeds of forcefully making an issue of China, they remind people of an ancient poem: Along the Yangzi River, apes moan ceaselessly. My boat has passed ten thousand mounts briskly.
It must be pointed out that making an issue of China can't save the US. Instead, it will continue to intensify all the problems Washington is facing, be they domestic or external, and squeeze the room to solve these issues in the future. Even some people of insight in the US have warned that the excessive attention on undermining Beijing's advantages could make Washington neglect its most important tasks at home and push its foreign policies to deviate from its course even further. "American hubris is always a danger, but so is exaggerated fear, which can lead to overreaction," wrote US scholar Joseph Nye last year. "The US and China must avoid exaggerated fears that could create a new cold or hot war," he added. It seems that those who are sick are unwilling to take medicine.
The US is trying to oppose China in every possible aspect, reflecting the peremptory squeezing of reality by the US' anti-China ideology. But the reality is also resisting the ideological pressure at all times. The twist has distorted some US elites' mindset, making them fall into hesitation and division. However, the "China threat" is not the root cause of Washington's internal and external problems. Reality will make them understand sooner or later that win-win cooperation is the effective cure for their disease.
https://bbc.com/news/articles/crrj1znp0pyo Anthony Zurcher North America correspondent and James FitzGerald Watch: What could happen du...
