Rightways to Success: R-Naught

Showing posts with label R-Naught. Show all posts

Friday 10 September 2021

Record covid-19 new cases and deaths in Penang, Malaysia 19,733 new cases (Sep 8)

Penang (2,474) reached a new record Sspt 8, 2021. Hospitalisation of Covid-19 patients has also been trending up, despite 49.4 percent of its population being vaccinated. [see vaccination chart below]

Hospital bed use for Covid-19 patients in Penang has reached 109 percent - the highest in the country - while intensive care bed use is 93.2 percent. [see hospitalisation chart below]

In Sarawak (3,100), the authorities said 99.87 percent of new cases involved patients in Category 1 or 2 (no symptoms or mild symptoms). However, Health Ministry data shows that hospitalisation is still on a 14-day uptrend.

Hospital bed use by Covid-19 patients Negeri Sembilan has dropped 70.9 percent since peaking on July 31.

As of yesterday, the R-naught for the country is 0.95. A R-naught of less than 1.00 suggests that the spread of Covid-19 was slowing down.

The R-naught for the Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Negeri Sembilan have all fallen below 0.90.

Regions where the R-naught is more than 1.00 are Pahang, Perak, Terengganu, Sarawak, Perlis and Penang, Malacca and Johor.

The number of active cases have continued trend downwards today the intensive care bed use is dropping slowly over the past month.

Active cases: 248,673

Patients in ICU: 904*

Intubated: 430*

[Does not include patients classified as 'probable'.]

New cases by states

Sarawak (3,100) Selangor (2,989) Penang (2,474) Sabah (2,067) Johor (1,867) Kedah (1,564) Kelantan (1,471) Perak (1,319) Terengganu (904) Pahang (700) Kuala Lumpur (537) Malacca (375) Negeri Sembilan (256) Perlis (74) Putrajaya (29) Labuan (7)

Deaths

The Health Ministry reported another 361 deaths attributed to Covid-19 today, bringing the national death toll to 19,163.

There were 102 patients who were pronounced dead upon arrival at the hospital of which a quarter were reported in Sabah alone.

Selangor (67) reported the highest number of deaths followed by Johor (65), Sabah (54), Kedah (51), Kuala Lumpur (34), Negeri Sembilan (29), Kelantan (17), Sarawak (10), Terengganu (9), Malacca (8), Perak (6), Penang (5), Pahang (4) and Perlis (2).

Clusters

The Health Ministry is currently monitoring 1,459 active Covid-19 clusters.

Another 35 new clusters were classified today of which 20 involved workplaces.

Industri Jalan Nuri cluster

Category: Workplace State(s): Selangor District(s): Kuala Langat Total infected: 79 out of 122 screened

Tapak Bina Persiaran Elmina cluster

Category: Workplace State(s): Selangor District(s): Petaling Total infected: 67 out of 129 screened

Industri Dua Jalan Anggerik Mokara 47 cluster

Category: Workplace State(s): Selangor District(s): Klang Total infected: 50 out of 167 screened

Industri Dua Jalan Bandar Lama cluster

Category: Workplace State(s): Selangor District(s): Kuala Langat and Klang Total infected: 30 out of 36 screened

Tapak Bina Persiaran Laman View cluster

Category: Workplace State(s): Selangor District(s): Sepang Total infected: 20 out of 69 screened

Tapak Bina Jalan Elegan cluster

Category: Workplace State(s): Selangor District(s): Sepang Total infected: 12 out of 92 screened

Pasar Matu cluster

Category: Workplace State(s): Sarawak District(s): Matu Total infected: 29 out of 121 screened

Tapak Bina Jalan Tasek Mutiara Tujuh cluster

Category: Workplace State(s): Penang District(s): Seberang Perai Selatan Total infected: 123 out of 518 screened

Tapak Bina Jalan Kubang Menerong cluster

Category: Workplace State(s): Penang District(s): Seberang Perai Utara and Seberang Perai Tengah Total infected: 81 out of 290 screened

Jalan Mayang Pasir Tiga cluster

Category: Workplace State(s): Penang District(s): Barat Daya and Timur Laut Total infected: 46 out of 468 screened

Zon Industri Bebas Tiga cluster

Category: Workplace State(s): Penang District(s): Barat Daya Total infected: 21 out of 283 screened

Tapak Bina Jalan Tengku Azizah cluster

Category: Workplace State(s): Johor District(s): Johor Bahru Total infected: 56 out of 235 screened

Industri Jalan Gangsa Kulai cluster

Category: Workplace State(s): Johor District(s): Kulai Total infected: 18 out of 230 screened

Industri Jalan Johor Ayer Hitam cluster

Category: Workplace State(s): Johor District(s): Batu Pahat Total infected: 15 out of 656 screened

Dah Tapak Bina Patani cluster

Category: Workplace State(s): Kedah District(s): Kuala Muda Total infected: 54 out of 226 screened

Dah Empat Industri Sungai Petani cluster

Category: Workplace State(s): Kedah District(s): Kuala Muda Total infected: 51 out of 117 screened

Industri Persiaran Pengkalan 32 cluster

Category: Workplace State(s): Perak District(s): Kinta Total infected: 35 out of 120 screened

Semambu Empat cluster

Category: Workplace State(s): Pahang District(s): Kuantan Total infected: 29 out of 55 screened

Ladang Jalan Bahau Rompin cluster

Category: Workplace State(s): Negeri Sembilan District(s): Jempol Total infected: 75 out of 336 screened

Jalan PBR 12 cluster

Category: Workplace State(s): Malacca District(s): Melaka Tengah Total infected: 25 out of 90 screened

Jalan Kubang Golok Merabang cluster

Category: Community State(s): Kelantan District(s): Bachok Total infected: 20 out of 36 screened

Kampung Gong Manak cluster

Category: Community State(s): Kelantan District(s): Pasir Puteh Total infected: 15 out of 18 screened

Jalan Kubang Kacang cluster

Category: Community State(s): Kelantan District(s): Kota Bharu Total infected: 14 out of 23 screened

Kampung Kedap cluster

Category: Community State(s): Kelantan District(s): Pasir Mas, Machang and Kota Bharu Total infected: 14 out of 26 screened

Kampung Kuala Besar cluster

Category: Community State(s): Kelantan District(s): Kota Bharu Total infected: 9 out of 17 screened

Lorong Pasir Lada cluster

Category: Community State(s): Kelantan District(s): Kota Bharu Total infected: 9 out of 15 screened

Lorong Madrasah cluster

Category: Community State(s): Kelantan District(s): Pasir Mas Total infected: 9 out of 13 screened

Lorong Penggawa Yahya cluster

Category: Community State(s): Kelantan District(s): Pasir Mas Total infected: 5 out of 6 screened

Jalan Sutera Bakar Batu cluster

Category: Community State(s): Johor District(s): Johor Bahru Total infected: 116 out of 193 screened

Sungai Tekam Jerantut cluster

Category: Community State(s): Pahang District(s): Jerantut Total infected: 27 out of 82 screened

Lemujan cluster

Category: Community State(s): Sarawak District(s): Pakan Total infected: 38 out of 42 screened

Jalan Chemor Estate cluster

Category: High-risk group State(s): Perak District(s): Kinta Total infected: 75 out of 97 screened

Kampung Ayer Papan cluster

Category: High-risk group State(s): Perak District(s): Kinta Total infected: 13 out of 31 screened

Jalan SP 5/4 cluster

Category: Non-Education Ministry institution State(s): Selangor District(s): Kuala Langat Total infected: 17 out of 118 screened

Jalan Scientex 20 cluster

Category: Institusi Pendidikan Swasta Berdaftar di Bawah KPM State(s): Johor District(s): Kulai Total infected: 11 out of 48 screened

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Thursday 24 June 2021

Everyone must do their part to lowering Covid-19 infectivity rate

PETALING JAYA: The nation’s Covid-19 infectivity rate will keep rising due to increasing active clusters and sporadic cases in the community unless people are vaccinated quickly and widely, say health experts.

Universiti Putra Malaysia medical epidemiologist Assoc Prof Dr Malina Osman said the rise in the infectivity rate, or the R-naught (R0) value, was expected as there were about 850 active clusters nationwide as of Monday.

She said active clusters had been increasing since April 4, when 359 were recorded. On May 5, the number of active clusters rose to 411 and on June 6, it climbed to 713.

“Even though we hope cases can be reduced through contact tracing and screening, some cases from ongoing clusters may have been left unchecked or escaped the screening. This subsequently introduces the infection to other settings.

“That is why a self-lockdown and adherence to the standard operating procedure (SOP) are very important to curb the spread,” she said when contacted yesterday.

To bring down the R0, Dr Malina said cooperation from the community was vital.

“Suppression of the infection is no longer on the government’s shoulders alone. It has to be done fully by the community.

“We hope that by next week, the number of fully vaccinated persons in the community can reach up to 10% (of the population) and that people will adhere to the SOP.

“Without these measures, the R0 projection may be increased,” she said, adding that this would contribute to more Covid-19 cases.

“Those who have been vaccinated need to continue adhering to the SOP. As for those who are entitled

to receive the vaccine early, please contact the nearest healthcare facility directly,” she said.

Dr Malina suggested that the government allow the elderly and people with disabilities to get their vaccine via walk-ins and for those in the economic sectors to be vaccinated together with their families.

Since the start of the ongoing lockdown on June 1, the R0 levels nationwide had dropped from a high of 1.07 to a low of 0.90 on June 12.But from June 13 to June 20, the R0 gradually rose from 0.91 to 0.97.

The R0 of a virus is a measure of its transmission or number of new infections generated by each case.

For example, an R0 rate of 1.0 means that on average, each infected person will infect one other person they come into contact with.

On June 20, the highest R0 recorded was in Negri Sembilan at 1.05. This was followed by Johor (1.0), Sarawak (0.99), Labuan (0.98), Kuala Lumpur (0.96), Sabah (0.96), Selangor (0.93), Melaka (0.91), Kedah (0.90) and Perak (0.90). The remaining states recorded an R0 of less than 0.90 each.

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia health economics, hospital and health management Prof Dr Sharifa Ezat Wan Puteh said she believed the R0 would keep rising unless the government could vaccinate the population “quickly and widely enough”.She added that Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Johor had contributed to the increasing infectivity rate.

“The projected average R0 next week may increase to more than 1.0 unless we can curtail sporadic cases through increased screening, detection and isolation while maintaining a high inoculation rate in red zones in these states,” she said.

She added that the movement of people was also a contributing factor, as evidenced by the high number of private sector employees who were allowed to go to their workplace despite the lockdown.

She said the inability to tackle the high number of sporadic cases in the community had also fuelled the R0, adding that those cases were usually asymptomatic and could contribute to the high number of daily “brought in dead” cases nationwide.

“Since many people have not been vaccinated or screened for Covid-19, they could be moving around and spreading the virus,”

she said.She advised people from hard-hit areas where sporadic cases had been reported to go for screening.She added that the fee for Covid-19 tests should also be kept low to enable people to access the service.

The government, Prof Sharifa Ezat said, should ease access to vaccines by having more outreach programmes, drive-through vaccinations and vaccine literacy talks.

International Islamic University Malaysia epidemiologist Prof Dr Jamalludin Ab Rahman had also observed the R0 increase early on.“Since the R0 values are compared to the previous values, the day when we observe a significant dip may cause the subsequent daily R0 to be higher,” he said.

Prof Jamalludin said the rising R0 may prove to be of concern, but this could only be determined if testing rates remained constant since the number of tests could affect the reporting of new cases.

He was also concerned about sporadic cases in the community.

“If the investigation of each positive case is not done properly, we might miss contacts which would spread further to others,” he added.

He said to some degree, the lockdown and vaccination programme had been able to bring down the transmission rates.

But he said the authorities needed to identify the source of Covid-19 cases, which mainly come from workplace clusters currently, and potentially also community clusters.

“We also need to improve the vaccine rollout. We need to secure the supply and quickly vaccinate the population. There is no magic or faster way out,” he added.