Education woes in Malaysia, etc, act now to address the weaknesses!

Policies have been formulated to improve and facilitate teaching and learning at all levels, yet there are weaknesses in the system that need to be urgently addressed.

THE dismal performance of our students in the Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa) in 2013, where 51.8 % of our 15-year old students failed to reach even the baseline level for Reading, Mathematics and Science, has rightly alarmed many concerned Malaysian parents and educationists.

It bears repeating that the quality of an education system simply cannot exceed the quality of its teachers, no matter how many billions of ringgit is used in educational development plans or blueprints to improve our school system.

Prominent lawyer, politician, columnist and author Datuk Zaid Ibrahim, could well be expressing the sentiments felt by many informed Malaysians when he wrote in his book I, Too, Am Malay, that many teachers, are “poor in quality” and the school curriculum is irrelevant while administrators are too political.

The fact that 70% of our English teachers failed to make the grade in the Cambridge Placement Test speaks volumes of why and how we continue to witness a decline in English proficiency in our schools and universities over the years.

If it is true that a large number of our teachers are incompetent, then policy-makers will have to get the views of all the major stakeholders, accept sound suggestions from various quarters, before they attempt to tinker with our school system.

M. Bakri Musa, columnist and author in his book An Education System Worthy of Malaysia, mentioned the greatest weakness of all our educational reforms is the government’s exclusive dependence on in-house or Education Ministry officers, who have somehow failed to improve the quality of our education system over the years, in spite of all their grand schemes.

Let’s review how effective, practical or meaningful the educational reforms have been at school level.

Motivating students

When the co-curricular points system was first implemented in our schools, it seemed like a good way to motivate our students to participate more actively in sports clubs and societies to make them well-rounded students.

In the first place, the system was never implemented in good faith.

Students sitting for the Sijil Tinggi Persekolahan Malaysia (STPM) exams face a serious handicap when it comes to applying for admission to local universities for some degree courses compared to Matriculation students, who study for a shorter period of time and sit for their relatively easy internally-marked exam papers.

And as if things are not bad enough for STPM students, it looks like the co-curricular points system was designed to make university admission even easier for Matriculation students. The system enables them to secure high marks for co-curricular activities which account for 10% of the entry-score requirement for public university admission.

In matriculation colleges, students who participate in co-curricular activities among hostel block members are awarded marks meant for district level events, while students who compete in activities in college are awarded marks that are equivalent to state level grades. When students compete in inter-college events, they are accorded marks equivalent to that of national level!

Any wonder why so many SPM students choose not to do their Form Six?

The system is biased as it favours Matricu-lation students over STPM students. Moreover the chances of STPM students who score 4As getting courses of their choice at varsity level is also uncertain.

Considering the circumstances, many bright students simply don’t want to continue with Form Six.
Why experience the mental agony of getting 4As in the STPM exams only to be denied places for courses like medicine and pharmacy?

Let me reiterate that the STPM is a tougher exam and the co-curricular point system for matriculation students gives the latter an unfair advantage.

Research suggests that superior learning takes place when classroom experiences are enjoyable and relevant to students’ lives, interest and experiences.

As such, it is rather unfortunate that at a time when our education system is already failing to provide students with appropriate problem solving, critical and analytical skills and knowledge content, especially in Science and Mathematics, our policy-makers see it fit to make all students take up History (now made a compulsory subject to pass in the SPM exam).

Instead of learning world history and exposing our students to lessons we can learn from major historical events, much of our Form Four History textbooks are devoted to specific topics all in the name of promoting patriotism and national unity.

And why bother to introduce the SPM open certification exam in the first place when we have no real intention to offer our students real flexibility in their choice of subjects and electives based on their interests, abilities and aptitudes?

In his best seller, The World is Flat, Thomas L Friedman, points out that in today’s world, how children are educated may prove to be more important than how much they have to learn in school.

If what he says is true, why should we stifle our students’ initiative, curiosity and creativity by burdening them with uninspiring and even unnecessary subjects that have made school life such a dreadful and boring affair.

And yet, despite repeated calls to scrap Moral Education, such pleas have fallen on deaf ears. It has been pointed out that Moral Education, instead of exploring how we can effectively teach and test moral reasoning, only serves to indoctrinate our students and subjects them to mindless memorisation of core values.

To make things worse, our policy-makers decided that learning Moral Education was not good enough; in order to make our students more civic-conscious and patriotic, they went on to introduce yet another subject called “Civics and Citizenship” for our secondary school students from Form One in 2005.

Holistic development

Our national education philosophy emphasises holistic development of our students. That being the case, won’t Physical Education (PE) play an important role in producing physically fit and well-rounded students?

And yet with our students experiencing so much stress in their school life, they have to make do with just two periods for PE!

If that is not bad enough, some schools even use PE periods to teach “more important subjects” like Health Education. And what about our school-based assessment?

Various quarters have already pointed out that simply scrapping the Ujian Pencapaian Sekolah Rendah (UPSR) and Penilaian Menengah Rendah (PMR) exams to introduce the current school-based system may not necessarily serve to enhance learning and make school life more enjoyable for students.

When the school-based assessment system was introduced to schools in 2011, it was assumed that teachers would be able to assess their students’ abilities and potential.

But with so many “poor quality” teachers it will not be fair to assume that they are sufficiently equipped to evaluate their students based on internally-prepared assessments, that they take pains to assess their students properly, and that they are unbiased towards their students.

Well, that’s really a tall order. Already, we have heard stories from schools of incompetent and indifferent teachers teaching weak classes and yet awarding their students Band Six, no less, in their respective subjects!

And as usual, many schools are already resorting to buying workbooks in the market instead of getting their teachers to come up with their own worksheets and materials to assess their students, making a mockery of introducing the school-based assessment in the first place.

But we can’t blame the teachers, not when they are burdened with so much paperwork and keying data online into the SPPBS (Sistem Pengurusan Pentaksiran Berasaskan Sekolah).

It is worth noting that our current school-based assessment at the end of the day, is not much different to the A-B-C-D-E grade system or even the Percentage Score system. So why should teachers need to waste time with the banding exercise when in their daily dealings they can easily discern the band(s) the students actually deserve for the topics taught?

Wouldn’t it be better to reflect on their teaching approaches and enhance their professional knowledge, rather than waste time with paperwork and keying data?

It is about time to address the problems facing our education system.

For a start, the government should really grant greater autonomy to good schools in both urban and rural areas to adopt a broad-based curriculum, save for a few core subjects under the supervision of the Education Ministry, to let students learn what they ought to learn in today’s challenging world.

Get dynamic school principals to manage such schools and empower them to make decisions on matters related to school operations with the participation of parents and the local school communities.

If the principals are allowed to hire competent teaching staff, and be accountable for their performance, then we stand a better chance to improve our education system at the school level, specially when we are in a position to compare the performance of such autonomous schools with our national schools.

And with so many parents paying for tuition lessons these days, they would gladly pay school fees to get their children to study in such autonomous schools.

When such schools, gain a good reputation, the tuition syndrome will slowly die and more parents would choose to place their children in such schools rather than vernacular or international schools, resulting in a win-win situation!

With the current rot in the school system, the authorities should no longer be so protective over their turf. They must have the courage to admit the serious shortcomings of their policies and display greater commitment to think out of the box. It is now in the hands of the ministry to make it all happen.


 Contributed by Henry Soon - The Star/Asia News Network

The writer, a retired teacher, is still passionate about education. He hopes the Education Ministry will be bold enough to bring about changes for the greater good of students, teachers and parents.

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Interesting times in East Asia

South-East Asia is in a strategically unenviable spot – too small to shape North-East Asia, and too near to it to avoid the havoc of conflict there.

Troubled waters: South Korea conducting a drill to guard a maritime science research station set up on the South Korea-controlled underwater reef of Ieodo. Conflicts can result from miscalculation, misperception or misinterpretation of an adversary’s actions or intentions. -EPA

IF outright aggression between nations often results in conflict, conflicts need not result directly from aggression alone.

Conflicts also arise from doubts, uncertainty and lingering suspicions. They can result from miscalculation, misperception or misinterpretation of an adversary’s actions or intentions.

Several of these “triggers” are on full display in North-East Asia today. Contributory factors include historical grievances between Japan and its immediate neighbours China and the Koreas, China’s growth and assertiveness, Japan’s brashness, Korea’s sensitivities and US ties to Japanese security interests.

That these countries are major players does not insure against open conflict between them. These major powers have the means to initiate and sustain full-scale war.

Nor is the location of potential conflict in North-East Asia a comfort to South-East Asia. Whether individually or together, Asean countries are not strong enough to deter or resolve such conflict, yet are not sufficiently far away to avoid its fallout.

Several of the disputes stem from Japan’s 2012 nationalisation of the Senkaku/Diaoyu/Diaoyutai islands also claimed by China and Taiwan in the East China Sea. As with other provocations, this occurred against the backdrop of Japanese atrocities against Chinese and Korean populations during the Second World War.

Then last November, China declared an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) over disputed islands and waters. After the United States declared the first ADIZ in 1950, Britain, Canada, India, Japan, Norway, Pakistan, South Korea and Taiwan followed. 

A country’s ADIZ requires foreign civilian vessels to identify themselves before entering. Essentially controversial and provocative, it is unilateral, unregulated and unauthorised multilaterally.

Beijing presumably thought that all countries had equal rights to declare such a zone. It may not have anticipated the protests it received, particularly from countries that had done the same thing before.

In December, Chinese and US warships narrowly avoided a collision. Despite both countries downplaying the incident subsequently, different versions of the event resulted.

Spats had erupted between China and Vietnam, and the Philippines, over the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy’s presence in disputed territories in the South China Sea. Then in mid-2013, a China-Vietnam summit cooled tensions, leaving the Philippines somewhat in the cold.

But as if to sow doubts about Beijing’s own diplomatic competence, PLA(N) ships were reported in disputed waters off Sarawak late last year and early this year. This surprised Malaysian diplomatic and policy circles, since China had previously avoided upsetting Malaysia.

Countries in the region puzzle over why China is putting on such provocations, beyond testing the reactions of the other claimant countries. However, such tests can be made by other countries as well.

Late last month, Japan’s Asahi Shimbun newspaper reported that China was preparing to declare an ADIZ in the South China Sea. The area includes disputed islands and waters claimed by China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines and Vietnam.

The report suggested the new ADIZ would initially cover the Paracel Islands and eventual­ly include virtually the whole sea. Beijing immediately retorted, warning Japan against spreading baseless rumours.

The Japanese report was either a truthful account or an attempt to test China’s response. That response has been clear enough.

The Japanese government, meanwhile, has been working hard producing its share of follies and fumbles.

In mid-December, Tokyo called a meeting with Asean countries to discuss defence concerns vis-à-vis China. That meeting flopped, as Asean leaders downplayed the defence aspect and preferred discussing economic relations with Japan.

Then after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s controversial visit to the Yasukuni Shrine in December, Tokyo announced plans to nationalise another 280 islands. It coincided with the National Security Council’s launch to streamline the operations of security agencies and military forces under the office of the nationalist Abe.

That month, Abe criticised China’s ADIZ, calling it an attempt to change the regional status quo “by force”. Observers in the region were baffled by Tokyo’s definition of “force”.

Then the Japanese government revised textbooks to instruct schoolchildren that the islands in dispute with other countries were “an inherent part” of Japan. That again brought Beijing and Seoul together to condemn Tokyo.

At the same time, Japan planned military exercises with US and Indian forces, incorporating a US$2bil (RM6.65bil) loan to India. Days later, Tokyo planned more military exercises with US and Australian forces.

Such military responses with major countries outside East Asia do nothing to improve fraying relations within the region. But that disconnect apparently fails to concern policymakers in Tokyo.

Within Japan, Abe’s government is expanding its military forces over the Nansei Islands, covering Okinawa and the Senkakus. But reactionary nationalists had long seen the restrictions of Japan’s post-war “pacifist” Constitution as a hindrance.

Abe is now on a personal crusade to revise the Constitution to allow for a more assertive military. In his “historic mission”, Abe’s target is Article 9 which bans the use of military force to resolve disputes abroad.

The problem for Abe: a news survey last month showed 53.8% of the Japanese public opposing changes to the Constitution. How would a democratic Japan reject that majority view?

Abe seeks changes to permit Japanese force­s to make pre-emptive strikes, amounting to unilateral attacks on another country where self-defence may not be invoked.

After the US government advised US commercial airlines in November to abide by China’s ADIZ, Tokyo expressed bewilderment. Abe promptly concluded that the US had made no such decision.

Reports early this month said that Japan and the US had agreed to ignore China’s ADIZ in their military manoeuvres. But an ADIZ customarily applies to civilian, not military, vessels.

In other matters, however, there has been less agreement between Washington and Tokyo. A senior US military official warned against revising Japan’s Constitution. Since the overriding purpose was to build a trilateral alliance in North-East Asia comprising the US, Japan and South Korea to alienate China, a revised Japanese Constitution would instead alienate South Korea and disrupt the alliance.

In December, the US expressed “disappoint­ment” over Abe’s visit to the controversial Yasukuni war shrine. The following month, Ambassador Caroline Kennedy objected to the cruelty of Japan’s annual dolphin hunt, provoking protests.

Three US Congressmen have lobbied Secretary of State John Kerry to address the “comfort women” issue with Japan. It involved more than 200,000 Korean women and girls who had been sexually abused by Imperial Japanese forces.

When NHK broadcast chief Katsuto Momii trivialised the issue, suggesting Japan’s wartime actions were acceptable, he caused more controversy. Momii was Abe’s pick for the top media job.

Kerry is due in China and South Korea in a week to discuss North Korea. Japanese observers note that he will be bypassing Tokyo. However, Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida was in Washington on Friday to discuss with Kerry the Abe-Obama summit in Tokyo in April. Abe has found a compelling need to reaffirm bilateral ties with the US.

While the scheduled summit will bear on the “US pivot” to East Asia, other countries may also do a pivot or at least a pirouette. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has directed major state-owned companies to relocate their head offices to Russia’s far east to help develop the region.

Where political and economic concerns converge, strategic considerations are never far behind. Such concerns, never lacking in East Asia, are now set to multiply.

 Behind The Headlines by Bunn Nagara Asia News Network

• Bunn Nagara is a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia.
• The views expressed are entirely the writer's own. 

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Rosy outlook for Penang 2014: Strong growth, rise in FDI seen

A roundtable organised by KPMG Penang this week at KPMG new office, the Hunza Tower in Kelawei Road, George Town concludes that Penang will continue to enjoy high economic growth in 2014 and attract foreign direct investors.

Its tourism and property sectors will stay buoyant this year and the recovery in its electrical and electronic sector will continue into 2014.

Penang’s GDP growth in 2013 is estimated to be slightly less than 5%, according to official data.

“Penang remains a highly attractive location for local and foreign investors alike. It is also noteworthy that Penang ranks as one of the top emerging business processing locations worldwide.

“We certainly see healthy prospects for Penang across several industries,” said Johan Idris, managing partner of KPMG in Malaysia.

Penang’s property sector was also expected to maintain its 2013 growth momentum through 2014, he added in a KPMG statement this week.

“The uptrend in businesses and Penang as a desirable location has led to the consistently high demand for both residential and commercial properties on the island.

KPMG Penang, which highlighted tourism as a key sector for the state, expected tourism to remain a mainstay for the state in terms of revenue.

“As a designated UNESCO World Heritage site since 2008, tourist arrivals have steadily increased 14% as at October 2013 recording 4.4 million tourists.

“Penang’s hospitality industry is expected to chalk good returns, particularly as occupancy rates are slated for an upswing. Tourist arrivals are not limited to the ASEAN region but also from across the globe.”

KPMG Penang’s partner, Ooi Kok Seng, said: “The electrical and engineering sector, specifically solar energy equipment manufacturers, has seen a renewed demand.

“We believe that the positive turnaround will continue into 2014 due to the government’s allocation of additional land bank in Batu Kawan. Slated for development, Batu Kawan is an extension of the Bayan Lepas Free Trade Zone which is currently facing limited land space due to rapid expansion.”

KPMG Penang also said foreign direct investments (FDIs) were expected to escalate in 2014 as a result of the completion of major restructuring projects in Penang.

It foresaw additional advisory work in relation to mergers and acquisitions (M&A), transaction and restructuring projects. –The Edge

Rosy outlook for Penang

PENANG can expect strong economic growth this year following the upgrade in ranking by Moody’s Investor Service outlook in November.

KPMG Penang Partner-in-Charge Ooi Kok Sheng said the rating upgrade was an encouraging sign for the country.

“With active steps taken by the Government to implement fiscal reforms, Malaysia remains resilient amidst global economic uncertainty,” said Ooi.

He was speaking during KPMG Penang’s inaugural Economic Outlook Roundtable session at their new office at the Hunza Tower in Kelawei Road, George Town.

“Penang remains a highly attractive location for local and foreign investors alike.

“It is also noteworthy that Penang ranks as one of the top emering business processing locations worldwide.”

He said KPMG Penang saw tourism as a key sector for the state and expected it to remain as the mainstay for the state government in terms of revenue.

“Penang’s hospitality industry is expected to chalk good returns, particularly as occupancy rates are slated for an upswing.

“Tourist arrivals are not limited to the Asean region. The state has many visitors from all over the globe.”

Ooi also anticipated a sustained demand for audit, tax and advisory work in 2014.

“With Penang as a manufacturing and export hub for the northern region and dubbed the semiconductor Silicon Valley of Malaysia, many public-listed companies have based their operations in the state,” he said.

Malaysian Association Hotels (Penang Chapter) chairman Mary Ann Harris said prospects for the state’s tourism sector looked good in Visit Malaysia Year 2014.

“However, we are not without our problems as we are in urgent need of a viable public transportation system,” said Harris.

Penang Rehda chairman Datuk Jerry Chan said the state should benchmark according to international standards, rather than local.

“We have been noted as one of the best food destinations in the world and one of the most liveable cities in the world,” he said.

“It is time for us to set a global benchmark in other sectors.”

- The Star/Asia News Network

'Penang set for healthy growth'

THE opening of the Second Penang Bridge, six new hotels and an influx of medical tourists into the state are expected to keep Penang's economy healthy this year, say captains of various industries.

Malaysian Association of Hotels (MAH) Penang chapter chairman Dr Mary Ann Harris said the soon-to-be opened longest bridge in Southeast Asia is expected to be a tourism draw.

"There is definitely going to be more tourists drawn to the new bridge and we expect many of them to participate in the Penang Bridge International Marathon 2014, which is expected to be held at the second bridge," she said.

The RM4.5 billion Second Penang Bridge, which connects Batu Maung on the island to Batu Kawan in the mainland, serves as a second land crossing after the first Penang Bridge was opened in 1985.

Harris was speaking after presenting Penang's economic outlook for 2014 at a roundtable session hosted by audit, tax and advisory firm KPMG Penang here yesterday.

The roundtable, which was opened by state executive councillor Datuk Abdul Malik Abdul Kassim; also saw presentations from the Real Estate and Housing Developers Association (Rehda), Penang branch chairman, Datuk Jerry Chan; the Free Industrial Zone, Penang, Companies' Association president Heng Huck Lee; investPenang general manager Loo Lee Lian; and Malaysian American Electronics Industry (MAEI) Association chairman Datuk Wong Siew Hai.

Also present were KPMG Malaysia managing partner Johan Idris and KPMG's northern region partner-in-charge Ooi Kok Seng.

Harris said the state's tourism sector is expected to see the entry of six new hotels of two- to five-star, and the availability of some 1,000 room keys.

MAH Penang's membership is made up of 50 hotels with a total of 10,000 room keys.

Among the new properties expected to open their doors include the Royale Bintang and Rice Miller Hotel, which are both located at Weld Quay.

Other projects are said to include a hotel in Seberang Jaya and serviced apartments in Teluk Kumbar on the island.

Meanwhile, Penang Health Association chairman Datuk Dr Chan Kok Ewe told the roundtable session that seven private hospitals in Penang (with a total of over 1,000 beds), which are members of the association, had recorded RM370 million in revenue from medical tourists last year.

"Prospects for this sector are encouraging. There have also been suggestions to make Yangon in Myanmar a sister city of George Town in Penang, due to the shared heritage of the two cities.

"There is also anticipated demand from medical tourists in China but whether our hospitals, which have been making significant investments with expansion programmes to cater to medical tourists, can cope with the capacity is the question," he added, saying that private hospitals in the state are also experiencing manpower shortage.

Meanwhile, Johan in his welcoming address, said KPMG Penang expects the state's property sector to maintain its momentum throughout this year.

"The industry has certainly fared positively with healthy uptake in retail, residential and industrial lots and is indeed diverse, given the many types of businesses operating in there."

- Business Times

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There’s no place like Penang, said Briton

Briton lured by multiracial culture to settle down in the Pearl of the Orient

Home sweet home: Makins, in his Scottish kilt, posing for a photograph with several hikers during a recent hiking trip up the Moon Gate Point Five trail in the Penang Municipal Park.

BRITON Jonathan Makins has travelled far and wide and lived in various places around the world but Penang has a special place in his heart.

Makins, 59, born in Italy to a Scottish father and an English mother, has been living in Penang since February 2012.

He hopes to continue staying in George Town, which he now calls home.

Currently enrolled under the ‘Malaysia, My Second Home’ programme, Makins has lived and worked in Africa, London and Sweden.

The avid traveller, who considers himself a global citizen, also spent four years in Bangkok before coming to Penang.

“I wanted to stay in an Asian country as I love the climate here, which is better than in Europe,” he said.

“Besides, my Thai visa was coming to an end and I was also not very happy in Thailand.

“I visited Penang about four times before settling here, and I find that it is the right place for me.

“I visited Kuching, Sarawak, once but it is very quiet, while travelling to other areas there takes long hours. I have also been to Kuala Lumpur a few times but it was too noisy and dusty,” he said.

After he was born, Makins’ parents briefly brought him back to England before taking him to Tanzania when he was two.

“After Tanzania, I was raised in Nairobi, the capital of Kenya, when I was about six, before I left for school in England at the age of 10, while my parents remained in Kenya.

“After university, I worked as a civil and structural engineer in South Africa and Botswana for about nine years before becoming a cabinetmaker in London, England, for seven years,” he said.

Makins then went on to become an English teacher in Sweden for nine years before settling down in Thailand, where he spent the following four years.

“Having been to so many places, I consider myself a citizen of the world.

“As of now, I hope to continue staying in Penang. I love how it is so multiracial and everyone has friends of different races, religion and beliefs,” he said, adding that among his favourite delicacies were Indian vegetarian meals and simple home-cooked Chinese dishes.

Makins, who lives on his own at a condominium unit in Tanjung Bungah here, said besides the unique culture and heritage, he also found it easier ‘to make friends’ with the locals in Penang.

“The people here are friendlier and more hospitable when compared to some in other places that I have been to,” he added.

To keep fit, Makins goes hiking at the Moon Gate Point Five trail in the Penang Municipal Park at least twice a week, and recently he drew curious stares from hikers when he went there dressed in a Scottish kilt on Christmas Day.

“I also swim and keep in touch with friends through the Internet during my free time. Music is my main companion.

“I play the flute and am teaching myself the piano,” he said.

Makins, who was born in the Year of the Horse, added that he travelled to Bedong, Kedah, for the Chinese New Year celebrations with some friends.

By  Cavina Lim The Star/Asia News Network

Get an Islamic syariah home loans with discount on stamp duties

Boost for syariah home loans, Govt gives 20% stamp duties discount 

KUALA LUMPUR: Islamic home loans in Malaysia may beat last year’s record in 2014, as the Government provides tax incentives to get more people to use syariah-compliant borrowing, according to CIMB Group Holdings Bhd.

Mortgages that comply with the ban on interest climbed 30% in 2013 to an unprecedented RM61.9bil (US$18.7bil), Bank Negara data showed. Conventional home financing grew 10% to RM271bil, the same pace as 2012, even after the Government introduced property curbs to rein in speculation.

The Government is giving a 20% discount on stamp duties for mortgages that comply with religious tenets as it seeks to boost Islamic banking assets to 40% of the total by 2020 from 24%. The Government started holding monthly roadshows last year to create greater awareness of such financing principles, as it strives to enhance the nation’s status as a global syariah hub.

“There’s still strong potential for Islamic financing,” Badlisyah Abdul Ghani, chief executive officer (CEO) at CIMB Islamic Bank Bhd, a unit of CIMB Group, said in a phone interview in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday. “The roadshows and the incentives are helping syariah mortgage growth.”

Malaysia is also trying to boost such mortgages by offering to waive stamp duties for the refinancing of existing home loans that don’t conform to syariah principles. Syariah-compliant property borrowings had risen an average 31% per annum over the past five years to account for 19% of the total RM333bil market in 2013, central bank data showed.

Syariah home loans differ from their conventional counterparts in that a bank typically buys the property on behalf of the customer and rents it back at a mark-up to avoid interest payments. Some of the more popular options include contracts such as Ijarah, Murabaha and Tawarruq.

The central bank cut the maximum duration on all mortgages to 35 years from 45 years in July to rein in household debt, which had risen an average 12% per annum since 2008. In October, the Government increased property gains taxes and imposed curbs on foreign ownership.

The nation’s Islamic banking assets had more than doubled to RM543bil in the past five years, according to October figures issued by the Treasury. Sales of syariah-compliant bonds, or sukuk, rose 69% in 2014 from the year-earlier period to RM5.9bil, data compiled by Bloomberg showed. Issuance totalled RM49bil last year after reaching a record RM95.8bil in 2012.

The Bloomberg-Aibim Bursa Malaysia Corporate Sukuk Index of ringgit-denominated debt fell 0.9% this year to 104.155 as of Feb 4, almost erasing last quarter’s 1.1% gain.

“Islamic mortgages complement conventional ones,” Syed Abdull Aziz Jailani Syed Kechik, CEO at OCBC Al-Amin Bank Bhd, the Islamic unit of Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp, said in a Feb 4 e-mail interview. “One of the draws can be said to be the efforts by the Government and central bank to boost the market through incentives related to taxes.”

Last year’s curbs failed to prevent Malaysia’s House Price Index from climbing 1.4% to a record 194 in the three months ended September, the 19th straight quarterly advance, according to data from the Finance Ministry.

Mortgage demand might also pick up this year, particularly in the first half, as property investors sought to guard against a potential acceleration in inflation, CIMB’s Badlisyah said.

Consumer prices climbed 3.2% in December from a year earlier, the biggest gain since November 2011, an official report showed on Jan 22. Costs may increase further after Tenaga Nasional Bhd raised electricity tariffs on Jan 1.

“The products that have been put out in the market have been very well-received both by Muslims and non-Muslims,” Baiza Bain, managing director at Amanie Advisors Sdn Bhd, a Kuala Lumpur-based Islamic finance consultancy, said in a phone interview on Wednesday. “Islamic finance is still very nascent compared to conventional finance. It definitely needs incentives to push the assets toward the right level.”

- Bloomberg

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4.Southeast Asia's Boom Is a Bubble-Driven Illusion?

Southeast Asia's Boom Is a Bubble-Driven Illusion?

Since the Global Financial Crisis, Southeast Asia has been one of the world’s few bright spots for economic growth and investment returns. With its relatively young population of 600 million and its growing middle class, Southeast Asia has been the scene of a modern-day gold rush as international companies clamor to get a piece of the action. Unfortunately, my research has found that much of this region’s growth in recent years has been driven by ballooning credit and asset bubbles – a pattern that is also occurring in numerous emerging economies across the globe.

In the past few months, I have published reports about the growing bubbles in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia, and I will use this report to explain the region’s economic bubble as a whole. My five Southeast Asian country reports have generated quite a bit of interest and controversy, and were read nearly 1.3 million times, and were publicly denied by the central banks of Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

Ultra-low interest rates in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, combined with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s $3 trillion-and-counting quantitative easing programs caused a $4 trillion torrent of speculative “hot money” to flow into emerging market investments from 2009 to 2013. A global carry trade arose in which investors borrowed significant sums of capital at low interest rates from the U.S. and Japan for the purpose of purchasing higher-yielding emerging market investments and earning the difference. The surging foreign demand for emerging market investments created bubbles in those assets, especially in bonds. The emerging markets bond bubble resulted in record low borrowing costs for developing nations’ governments and corporations, and helped to inflate dangerous credit and property bubbles across the emerging world.

The flow of hot money into Southeast Asia after the financial crisis caused the region’s currencies to rise strongly against the U.S. dollar, such as the Singapore dollar’s 22 percent increase, the Philippine peso and Malaysian ringgit’s 25 percent increase, the Thai baht and Vietnamese dong’s 30 percent increase, and the Indonesian’s rupiah’s 50 percent increase, which has been subsequently negated now that foreign capital has begun to flow out of Indonesia’s economy.

The post-Crisis bond bubble helped to reduce government bond yields in Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines (click links for charts), while foreign institutional holdings of many Asian sovereign bonds increased dramatically:



Foreign direct investment into several Southeast Asian countries - particularly Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia – immediately surged to new highs after the Global Financial Crisis.
Here’s the chart of Singapore’s FDI (net inflows, current dollars):



Malaysia’s FDI (net inflows, current dollars):



Indonesia’s FDI (net inflows, current dollars):



How Record Low Interest Rates Are Fueling The Bubble

The emerging markets bond bubble helped to push EM corporate and government borrowing costs to all-time lows, but there is another factor that is causing the inflation of bubbles in Southeast Asia: record low bank loan rates. Large corporations have a choice to borrow from either the bond market or directly from banks, and typically choose the option that provides the lowest borrowing costs.

Western benchmark interest rates – particularly the LIBOR or London Interbank Offered Rate – are used to price bank loans in numerous countries throughout the entire world, and most have been hovering just above zero percent in the five years since the Global Financial Crisis. Most Western economies were hit extremely hard in the financial crisis and have faced a constant threat of falling into a deflationary trap since then, which is why their benchmark interest rates have been at virtually zero. In the U.S. Federal Reserve’s case, it has been running what is known as ZIRP or zero-interest rate policy.

Here is the chart of the LIBOR interest rate:



Due to the fact that the West was the primary epicenter of the 2003 to 2007 bubble economy and ensuing Global Financial Crisis, emerging market economies were able to rebound more quickly and continue growing at a much greater rate. While many Southeast Asian economies have been growing at a 5 percent or greater annual rate since 2008, they have been able to borrow at record low Western interest rates such as those based on the LIBOR. LIBOR is used as the base rate for nearly two-thirds of all large-scale corporate borrowings in Asia. Western interest rates are too low relative to Southeast Asia’s economic growth and inflation rates, so a large-scale borrowing binge has been occurring as a side-effect. Southeast Asia’s credit bubble may balloon even larger because Western benchmark interest rates are likely to stay at very low levels for several more years.

Local benchmark interest rates in many Southeast Asian countries have hit record lows since 2008 as well. Local interest rates are used for approximately one-third of large-scale corporate loans in Asia, as well as most consumer, mortgage, and smaller business loans. Southeast Asian central banks have kept their benchmark interest rates low to stem export-harming currency appreciation that has resulted from capital inflows since the financial crisis.

The chart below is Singapore’s benchmark interest rate, or SIBOR, which is commonly used as a reference rate for loans throughout Southeast Asia:



Here is Malaysia’s bank lending rate chart:


The Philippines’ bank lending rate:


Indonesia’s benchmark interest rate:

Thailand's benchmark interest rate:


Southeast Asia’s Boom Is Driven By A Credit Bubble

Abnormally cheap credit conditions have led to the inflation of credit bubbles across Southeast Asia, which have been a significant driver of the region’s economic growth in recent years.

Singapore’s total outstanding private sector loans have soared by 133 percent since 2010:




Malaysia’s private sector loans have increased by over 80 percent since 2008:


The Philippines’ M3 money supply, a broad measure of total money and credit in the economy, has more than doubled since 2008, and sharply accelerated in 2013 as interest rates hit new lows:


Indonesia’s private sector loans have risen by nearly 50 percent in the past two years:


Thailand’s private sector loans have risen by over 50 percent since the start of 2010:


Though dangerous credit bubbles are inflating across Southeast Asia, some countries’ credit bubbles are driven primarily by consumer or household debt, while others are driven mainly by commercial sector borrowing, particularly for construction and property development. Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand’s credit bubbles have a significant household debt component as the chart below shows:

Denise Law, FT

Singapore’s household debt-to-GDP ratio recently hit nearly 75 percent, which is up from 55 percent in 2010 and 45 percent in 2005. Though Singapore’s total outstanding household debt has increased by 41 percent since 2010, the city-state’s household income and wages have increased by a mere 25 percent and 15 percent respectively.

Malaysia now has Southeast Asia’s highest household debt load after its household debt-to-GDP ratio hit a record 83 percent, which is up from 70 percent in 2009, and up from just 39 percent at the start of the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. Malaysian household debt has grown by approximately 12 percent annually each year since 2008.

Thailand’s household debt-to-GDP ratio also hit a recent record of 77 percent, which is up from 55 percent in 2008, and just 45 percent a decade ago. Total lending to Thai households increased at a 17 percent annual rate from 2010 to 2012, while household credit provided by credit card, leasing and personal loan companies rose at an alarming 27 percent annual rate.

Property Bubbles Are Ballooning Across Southeast Asia 

Ultra-low interest rates in Southeast Asia have helped to inflate property bubbles throughout the region, which has also contributed to the staggering rise in household debt.

Singapore’s mortgage rates are based upon the SIBOR rate discussed earlier, which has been held at under one percent for over five years. Singapore’s property prices have roughly doubled since 2004, and are up by 60 percent since 2009 alone:


Source: GlobalPropertyGuide.com 

The average price of a new 1,000-square-foot condo has risen to $1 million to $1.2 million Singapore dollars ($799,000 to $965,638 U.S.), making the city-state the world’s third most expensive residential property market behind Canada and Hong Kong. A 2013 study by The Economist magazine showed that Singapore’s residential property prices are 57 percent overvalued based on its historic price-to-rent ratio. Singapore now ranks as one of the world’s ten most expensive cities to live.

Economic bubbles and the resulting false prosperity in other Asian countries have spilled over into Singapore as investors from across the region clamor to buy properties there. In 2013, 34 percent of foreign property-buyers in Singapore were from China, 32 percent were from Indonesia, and 13 percent were from Malaysia.

Total outstanding mortgages increased by 18 percent each year over the last three years, bringing total mortgage loans to 46 percent of Singapore’s GDP from 35 percent. Almost a third of Singapore’s mortgages are utilized for speculative property purchases rather than owner occupation. Singapore’s mortgage loan bubble is one of the primary reasons why the country’s household debt has been increasing at such a high rate in recent years.

Malaysian property prices have been increasing parabolically in recent years, as the chart below shows. Mortgage loans account for nearly half of all Malaysia’s household debt, and its rapid increase is the primary driver of the country’s household debt bubble.




Prices have nearly doubled in the past decade in certain Philippine property markets, such as the Makati Central Business District (CBD):



In the first six months of 2013, the average price of a 3-bedroom luxury condominium in Makati CBD rose by a frothy 12.92 percent (9.98 percent inflation-adjusted), after rising 5.6 percent in Q1 2013, 8 percent in Q4 and 8.3 percent in Q3 2012. The average price of a premium 3-bedroom condominium in Bonifacio Global City surged by 12.4 percent y-o-y, while secondary residential property prices in Rockwell Center rose by 10.6 percent y-o-y. Philippine outstanding mortgage loans are rising at an even faster rate than consumer credit, such as a 42 percent increase in 2012. The Philippines’ construction sector is expected to expand by double digits in 2014 and account for nearly half of economic growth thanks in large part to the country’s property development boom.

Though Indonesian property market data is spotty and difficult to source for all markets, Jakarta and Bali property prices are becoming frothy, especially at the higher end of the market. Jakarta condominium prices rose between 11 and 17 percent on average between the first half of 2012 and 2013, after rising by more than 50 percent since late 2008. Luxury real estate prices in Jakarta soared by 38 percent in 2012, while luxury properties in Bali rose by 20 percent – the strongest price increases of all global luxury housing markets.  A small two-room apartment on the outskirts of Jakarta can cost nearly $80,000 USD (RM253,373), making housing unaffordable for many ordinary Indonesians. From June 2012 to May 2013, outstanding loans for apartment purchases nearly doubled from IDR 6.56 trillion (USD $659.3 million) to IDR 11.42 trillion (USD $1.15 billion).

Thailand’s property bubble is centered primarily in the condo market, which is the most common type of dwelling for Bangkok residents, and is the speculative vehicle of choice for foreign investors who typically hail from Singapore and Hong Kong. According to Bank of Thailand, condo prices soared by 9.39 percent, while townhouses prices rose by 6.86 percent in Q1 2013, after rising by similar amounts for the past several years. The majority of new mortgages originated are concentrated at the lower end of the Thai housing market, and Bank of Thailand warned that low interest rate home loans could cause a property bubble.

Boonchai Bencharongkul, a wealthy Thai industrialist, said “I think the current situation is worrisome. As one of those who had such an experience, I can smell it now. People are rushing and competing to buy condos while more and more people are driving Ferraris. These are the same things we saw before the 1997 crisis occurred.”

Construction Bubbles Abound Across Southeast Asia

Low interest rates and soaring property prices create the perfect conditions for construction bubbles, which is what occurred in Ireland, Spain, the United States, and other countries from 2003 to 2007, and what has been occurring throughout Southeast Asia in recent years. Construction is a capital-intensive economic activity that benefits from cheap and easy credit, which is certainly the case in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia’s construction boom has been focused on condominium and residential property development, hotels, resorts, casinos, malls, airports, infrastructure projects, and skyscrapers.

Construction has been the most significant contributor to Singapore’s economic growth since 2008, as the chart below shows:



Construction industry work permits rose to 306,500 in June 2013 from 180,000 at the end-2007, which was the peak of Singapore’s economic boom before the financial crisis hit. Singapore’s construction boom has been driving an over 18 percent annual increase in total outstanding building and construction loans in recent years. Bank loans for building and construction, and mortgages recently rose to 79 percent of Singapore’s GDP, which is up from 62 percent in 2010.

Casino and resort construction has become a strong driver of building activity ever since gambling became legal in Singapore in 2010. The Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa opened in 2010 at a cost of over $10 billion. Singapore has also been aggressively upgrading and expanding its Changi International Airport, which has been a driver of construction activity. There is so much construction activity in Singapore that the country has 306,500 construction workers (compared to its 5.3 million population) from other Asian countries living there on work permits.

After growing by over 20 percent in 2012, Malaysia’s construction spending was expected to rise by 13 percent in 2013. Malaysia’s plan to build the tallest building in Southeast Asia, the 118-story Warisan Merdeka Tower, are a major red flag according to the Skyscraper Index, which posits that ambitious skyscraper projects are a common hallmark of economic bubbles.

In the Philippines, casinos, condominiums, and shopping malls have been driving construction activity. The Philippines now hosts 9 of the world’s 38 largest malls – beating even the U.S., China, and most other developed countries. The Philippines’ construction sector is expected to expand by double digits in 2014, and account for nearly half of the country’s economic growth.

Indonesia has been experiencing a construction boom in every sector, including hotels, condominiums, infrastructure, airports, and government buildings. At least 61 new hotels are confirmed to open in Jakarta by 2015. Indonesian construction contracts were estimated at more than $40 billion in 2013, up from $32.4 billion in 2012.

Thailand’s construction boom has been centered upon condominium development and infrastructure projects, which are funded by the government’s deficit spending. Construction spending is expected to grow by nearly 7 percent annually for the next five years.

Governments Are Borrowing To Create Economic Growth

The governments of Thailand and Malaysia have been taking advantage of low borrowing costs – courtesy of the emerging markets bond bubble – to finance deficit spending for the purpose of boosting economic growth.

Since 2010, Malaysia’s public debt-to-GDP ratio has been at all time highs of over 50 percent due to large fiscal deficits that were incurred when an aggressive stimulus package was launched to boost the country’s economy during the Global Financial Crisis. Malaysia now has the second highest public debt-to-GDP ratio among 13 emerging Asian countries according to a Bloomberg study. Malaysia’s high public debt burden led to a sovereign credit rating outlook downgrade by Fitch in July.

Malaysia’s Malaysia's government has been running a budget deficit since 1999:


Thailand’s government spending ramped up significantly in 2012 after the launch of a $2.5 billion first car tax rebate program that was fraught with problems as well as an unsuccessful rice subsidy scheme that lost the government 136 billion baht or $4.4 billion even though it was promoted as cost-neutral. Thailand’s government also plans to spend 2 trillion baht ($64 billion) – nearly one-fifth of the country’s GDP – by 2020 on growth-driving infrastructure projects, including a network of high-speed railway lines to connect the country’s four main regions with Bangkok. The interest alone on this new debt will cost another 3 trillion baht over the next five decades.

Thailand’s government spending is up by nearly 40 percent since 2008:

The country’s government has been running a budget deficit since 2008 to support its spending:



A wealthy Thai industrialist, Boonchai Bencharongkul, warned against excessive government spending, saying “This time, the nature of the crisis might be different. Last time it was the private sector that went bankrupt, but this time we might see the government collapse.” Sawasdi Horrungruang, founder of NTS Steel Group, cautioned that Thailand’s government should not borrow beyond its ability to service its debt, which will eventually become the burden of taxpayers.

How Singapore’s Financial Sector Is Driving The Bubble

Singapore has grown to become Southeast Asia’s banking and financial center, and the region’s rise – and inflating economic bubble – in recent years has helped the city-state to earn the nickname “The Switzerland of Asia.” Singapore’s financial sector is now six times larger than its economy, with local and foreign banks holding assets worth S$2.1 trillion (US$1.7 trillion). The Singaporean financial sector’s assets under management (AUM) have increased at a 9 percent annual rate from 2007 to 2012, but surged 22 percent in 2012. The primary reason for the country’s rapid AUM growth is its growing role as a banking hub in Southeast Asia, and it has been riding the coattails of the region’s economic bubble. A full 70 percent of assets managed in Singapore were invested in Asia in 2013, which is up from 60 percent in 2012. Singapore’s financial services industry grew 163% between 2008 and 2012.

Singapore’s banks have been contributing to the inflation of Southeast Asia’s economic bubble due to their use of the abnormally-low SIBOR as a reference rate for loans made throughout the region.

Here is the chart of the SIBOR interest rate as a reminder of how low it has been for the past half-decade:



To learn more about Singapore’s financial sector and its role in inflating Southeast Asia’s economic bubble, please read this section of my detailed report about Singapore’s bubble economy.

How China Is Driving Southeast Asia’s Bubble

Economic bubbles are not confined to Southeast Asia, unfortunately; since 2008, China’s economy has devolved into a massive economic bubble that has been contributing to Southeast Asia’s bubble.
Here are a few statistics that show how large China’s bubble has become:

• China’s total domestic credit more than doubled to $23 trillion from $9 trillion in 2008, which is equivalent to adding the entire U.S. commercial banking sector.
• Borrowing has risen as a share of China’s national income to more than 200 percent, from 135 percent in 2008.
• China’s credit growth rate is now faster than Japan’s before its 1990 bust and America’s before 2008, with half of that growth in the shadow-banking sector.

As mentioned at the beginning of this report, China’s government has encouraged the construction of countless cities and infrastructure projects to generate economic growth. Many of China’s cities, malls, and other buildings are still completely empty and unused even years after their completion, as these eerie, must-see satellite images show.

China has a classic property bubble that has resulted in soaring property prices in the past several years. A recent report showed that property prices increased 20 percent in Guangzhou and Shenzhen from a year earlier, and jumped 18 percent in Shanghai and 16 percent in Beijing.

China’s inflating economic bubble has generated an incredible amount wealth (albeit much of it temporary), a portion of which has flowed into Southeast Asia. Wealthy Chinese have been buying condominiums in desirable locations across Southeast Asia, and its notoriously free-spending gamblers are the primary reason for the casino building boom in numerous Southeast Asian countries, particularly in Singapore and the Philippines. Chinese companies have been investing and lending heavily in Southeast Asia, with a strong focus on the natural resources sector.

From 2002 to 2012, China’s bilateral trade with Southeast Asia increased 23.6 percent annually, and China is now Southeast Asia’s largest trade partner, while Southeast Asia is China’s third-largest trade partner.

Though several lengthy books can be written about China’s rise, economic bubble, and how it affects Southeast Asia, my goal is to succinctly show how dangerous China’s economic bubble has become and emphasize the fact that Southeast Asia’s economy has been benefiting from China’s false prosperity. The eventual popping of China’s bubble will send a devastating shockwave throughout Southeast Asia’s economy, which will contribute to the ending of the region’s bubble economy.

The Role Of Southeast Asia’s Frontier Economies

This report has focused primarily on the larger, more developed Southeast Asian countries because they have a far greater influence on the region’s economy compared to the “frontier” economies of Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Burma (Myanmar). The five largest Southeast Asian economies also have more advanced financial markets that are better integrated with global financial markets, and thus pose a greater systemic financial risk than the region’s frontier economies.

Southeast Asia’s frontier economies have been growing rapidly in recent years for many of the same reasons as their more developed neighbors, including:

• Rising trade with China
• Rising Chinese investment
• Increasing intraregional trade
• Loose global monetary conditions and “hot money”
• Higher commodities prices
• Credit and property bubbles

Vietnam experienced a property and credit bubble that popped several years ago and saddled the country’s banking system with bad loans. International realty firm CB Richard Ellis warned last year that Phnom Penh, Cambodia was experiencing a property bubble. Some local observers have suspected that property prices in Vientiane, Laos were in a bubble. Property prices in Yangon, Burma have exploded higher in recent years making commercial rents more expensive than in Manhattan.

While relevant data is few and far between, it is not unreasonable to believe that Southeast Asia’s frontier economies are experiencing froth or bubbles of their own for the same reasons as larger economies in the region. Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Burma are dangerously exposed to the eventual popping of China’s economic bubble as well as the popping of Southeast Asia’s overall bubble.

Cracks Are Beginning To Show

Southeast Asia’s financial markets were strong performers in late-2012 and early-2013 until news of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s QE taper plans surfaced in the Spring of 2013, causing many of these markets to fall sharply due to fears of reduced stimulus. This rout did not come as a surprise to me as I had been warning that hot money flows were inflating asset bubbles in emerging market countries, and I even published a report titled “All The Money We’re Pouring Into Emerging Markets Has Created A Massive Bubble” just a few months before these markets plunged. The sensitivity of emerging market asset prices and currencies to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s stimulus programs was an additional confirmation that the emerging markets bubble owed its existence largely to hot money flows. The ultimate ending of the Fed’s current “ QE3″ program – which many economists expect this year – is likely to put further pressure on emerging markets and contribute to the popping of their bubbles.

While most of Southeast Asia’s financial markets and currencies have been treading water since last Spring’s taper panic, Indonesia’s situation has continued to deteriorate, causing the rupiah currency to significantly weaken due to capital outflows. The rupiah is down by nearly 50 percent from its 2011 peak. Indonesia was hit harder by the taper panic than other Southeast Asian countries because of its worsening trade and current account deficits.

Thailand has been embroiled in political turmoil in recent months as opposition protestors have been demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. Opposition members claim that Yingluck is carrying on the same corrupt practices as her billionaire brother, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a military coup in 2006. The protests have harmed Thailand’s tourism industry, which is expected to slow 2014 economic growth to half of what it would have been without the demonstrations. Thailand’s stock market has fallen sharply in recent months as a result of the political strife.

How Southeast Asia’s Bubble Will Pop

Southeast Asia’s economic bubble will most likely pop when the bubbles in China and emerging markets pop and as global and local interest rates eventually rise, which are what inflated the region’s credit and asset bubbles in the first place. Southeast Asia’s bubble economy may continue to inflate for several more years if the U.S. Fed Funds Rate, LIBOR, and SIBOR continue to be held at such low levels.

I expect the ultimate popping of the emerging markets bubble to cause another crisis that is similar (though not identical in every technical sense) to the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, and there is a strong chance that it will be even worse this time due to the fact that more countries are involved (Latin America, China, and Africa), and because the global economy is in a much weaker state now than it was during the booming late-1990s.

I recommend taking the time to read my detailed reports on Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia to get a better understanding of Southeast Asia’s economic bubble.

In the coming months, I will be publishing more reports about bubbles that are developing around the entire world – most of which you probably never knew existed. Please follow me on Twitter, Google+ and like my Facebook page to keep up with the latest economic bubble news and my related commentary.

By Jesse Colombo, Forbes Contributor

I'm an economic analyst who is warning of dangerous post-2009 bubbles

 Related posts:
1. Asian central banks fix the mess created by their governments 

2. US Fed tapering of bond purchases, a new economic boom or bust cycles?

Asian central banks fix the mess created by their governments

Tokyo: Asia's central bankers are being forced to juggle their day jobs with what their governments have failed to do - steeling their economies for the hard times.

Critics say many governments have done too little to remove barriers to domestic and foreign business investment, cut red tape, upgrade infrastructure and develop deep, well-functioning financial markets when the region was flush with cheap money.

Now that economic rocks are emerging as the tide of the Fed's easy cash recedes, central banks are having to step in, detouring from their price and financial stability mandates, to shore up weak economies.

India and Indonesia were first in the firing line of investors last year when the Fed's plans to scale back its $85 billion in monthly cash injections started to take shape. Both took emergency steps, intervened in markets and raised interest rates to shore up battered currencies.

Since then the Fed has started winding down its stimulus in earnest, putting emerging markets on the back foot once again as investors look to target the most vulnerable economies.

Indonesian and Indian authorities have improved their defences against rapid outflows but their governments have failed to tackle supply bottlenecks and market rigidities that fuel inflation and limit room for policy manoeuvre, economists say. Both face national elections this year that could lead to populist measures and further delay reforms.

In Thailand, months of political turmoil have paralysed government, leaving the central bank as the mainstay of economic support.

"Government and monetary policies should be fairly balanced," says Rob Subbaraman, chief Asia economist at Nomura in Singapore.

"In India, and increasingly Thailand, the governments have not done their part. There's a risk Indonesia goes this way as the elections draw closer," said Subbaraman, who since mid-2013 has been warning of emerging Asia's growing exposure to market turmoil.

Even in Japan and China, with their strong and stable political leaderships, central banks appear to be doing most of heavy lifting.

In Japan, a blast of central bank money has boosted the economy and markets, but Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic reforms have disappointed.

China's central bank is trying to rein in an explosion of off-balance sheet and risky lending as cautious government regulators resist speedier financial reform that would force markets to price risk more realistically.

Asian central bankers rarely air their frustrations in public. India's former central bank governor Duvvuri Subbarao was an exception, regularly sparring with New Delhi over economic reforms and rates.

Sometimes though, their concerns do bubble to the surface.

After a series of rate hikes by Indonesia's central bank, an official there in October voiced his vexation that the government was not tackling the root cause of a widening trade and current account gap - its own spending.

"We need to address the cause of illness when running a fever," Dody Budi Waluyo, executive director of Bank Indonesia economic and monetary policy department told Reuters at the time. "The medicine should not only be Panadol to lower the fever."

NEW RISKS

In picking up the reins from government, the risk is that central banks will deliver neither the stability they seek, nor the economic support that is needed.

In Japan, for example, the concern is that optimism spurred by the Bank of Japan's massive cash injections will fade without reforms to unshackle the economy's untapped growth potential and help overcome the problems of a fast ageing society.

The Chinese central bank's attempts to curb risky lending by calibrating supply of money market funds have triggered repeated cash crunches that threaten to ignite market panic.

Indonesian and Indian central banks may be forced to tighten monetary policy more than their slowing economies would otherwise have warranted because of fragile market sentiment and sticky inflation that remains high even when growth cools.

In an ominous sign for India, foreign investors have been net sellers of the country's stocks this year.

Thailand's central bank is under pressure to fill the void left by stalled infrastructure spending and provide the struggling economy with stimulus, but is well aware of the risks.

"Maintaining monetary policy in an accommodative mode for a long period of time runs the risk of delays in reforms as they may seem less pressing and the risk of financial imbalances build up," Bank of Thailand spokeswoman Roong Mallikamas said.

In Japan, one concern is that without fundamental reforms promised as part of Abe's "Abenomics" revival plan, markets will reverse and Japan lurch back into its deflationary equilibrium or "stagflation" - a spell of tepid growth and rising prices. Japan Risk Forum, which groups risk managers from Japan's major financial institutions, sees nearly a 50-50 chance of that happening.

"We cannot rely solely on monetary policy forever and the time will come when the government's resolve will be tested by markets, likely around summer," said Hiroshi Watanabe, head of state-run lender JBIC and Japan's former top financial diplomat.

OWN MAKING

To be fair, central bankers may have contributed to their own predicament by keeping monetary policies too loose for too long after the global financial crisis, either because of political pressure or fear of more turmoil.

Nomura estimates that taken as a whole, real interest rates measured as a difference between official rates and inflation in Asia's 10 biggest economies excluding Japan were negative for more than half the time since 2008 - a recipe for rapid debt buildup and property and stock market bubbles. By contrast rates were negative for only 16 percent of the 1996-2007 period.

"By over accommodating the Fed's easing, central banks allowed asset price inflation to occur, causing an intoxicating party in full swing," said Thirachai Phuvanatnaranubala, former Thai finance minister and deputy central bank governor. "With tapering, the party is over. Some emerging markets will now have to deal with the bubbles that crept up while everybody dreamily enjoyed himself."

There are also some signs of change. India is embarking on an ambitious monetary policy overhaul that would make it harder for the government to lean on the central bank, while the government has curbed gold imports and secured $34 billion in overseas financing to try to close its current account deficit.

Indonesia's ban on ore exports drew fire, but it is a sign Jakarta at least recognises the need to reduce its reliance on raw commodities exports. It has also taken steps to shore up public finances.

Still, central bank efforts can easily unravel once elections are in motion, said Toru Nishihama, senior emerging markets economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo.

"As elections are looming in many emerging countries this year, no matter how central banks tighten policy to control inflation, their governments are tempted to loosen fiscal policy, offsetting central banks' efforts," Nishihama said.

Sources: Reuters

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