World largest IPO: Alibaba shows optimism for China initiates new era and changes in Internet

Video: Alibaba's long road to Wall Street

Alibaba IPO shows optimism for China 

China's e-commerce giant Alibaba made its debut successfully on the New York Stock Exchange Friday, becoming the world's second-largest Internet company after Google. The complicated structure of Alibaba and the hype by mainstream media outlets in the US about its operation risks have failed to hold back global investors from chasing after its stocks. Its shares surged 38 percent on the first day of trading.

The growth of Alibaba is an unusual experience integrating China's opportunity and national conditions with Western capital and the world's confidence in the Chinese market. It has wielded a super influence upon the Chinese market and won the utmost confidence from the market. The impressive IPO, the biggest ever in US stock market history, can be viewed as a union connecting Chinese society and the rest of the world.

The West also thinks highly of what China regards as quite promising. This is what the New York Stock Exchange told us on Friday.

The complexity of China can hardly be thoroughly understood by ordinary Western investors. Alibaba was preparing its IPO amid economic transformation in China. When the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange rang, people bet not only on bright prospects for the company, but also on the stability of China's gradual market-oriented reform. The IPO demonstrates that the predictions of the West toward China are not as pessimistic as some media have reported.

There are two reasons why Chinese people have confidence in Alibaba. On the one hand, Alibaba is deeply rooted and also rises from the market; and on the other, the public has recognized that e-commerce represents the future. They are in increasing favor of marketized private enterprises and the high degree of market economization is affecting social confidence and resource allocation.

Now it seems that the rest of the world sometimes follows in the footsteps of the Chinese. China's huge potential, developed with its own Chinese characteristics, is now making its mark, which may lead Westerners to redefine their attitudes in accordance with the wishes of Chinese people. Both Chinese and Westerners need to adapt to and accept the reality Alibaba displays and comprehend its predictions about the future.

Why Alibaba decided to list in the US, though a shallow and improper question, involves a healthy and active aspiration that is not contradictory with the general global trend. Alibaba represents an era of the development of China's private Internet firms.

More support is needed for a new era. Chinese investors should not only play a major role in such feasts as Alibaba's IPO but also possess the ability to share the prospects. Will Alibaba surpass Google and become the largest Internet company in the world one day? Perhaps. China now boasts more than 600 million Net users and Alibaba displays a more genial access for new users throughout the world.- Global Times

Alibaba IPO initiates new era in which China changes Internet

Chinese Internet-based e-commerce giant Alibaba launched its initial public offerings (IPO) in New York Stock Exchange on Friday. After pricing its stock at $68, Alibaba surged high on the opening day with its price soaring to $92.70, which gave the company a valuation of about $228.5 billion.

In terms of market value, Alibaba has become the fourth biggest high-tech company after Apple, Google and Microsoft, and the second biggest Internet-based company in the world.

This IPO, now the biggest ever, has become a landmark in the global history of Internet development. Showing up on the international stage as a world class corporation, Alibaba reveals new business models and ideas of Chinese style.

Alibaba's IPO signals the start of a Chinese era in the global Internet. From 2005 to 2014, the population of Net users has increased dramatically and reached 3 billion worldwide.

Chinese Internet-based companies, starting from scratch, have grown to be leaders in the Internet community, engaging in a close competition with the US.

It is the trend of the age that keeps changing the world landscape, and customers are the basic forces to transform the situations of competition. The US remains dominant in most aspects. But after this experience, China will get the baton and take the lead.

So far, the average rate of Internet use in developed countries has surpassed 80 percent. They used their language advantages, high level of development and values to preside over the process in which the world Internet population has hit 3 billion.

However, in the next process to incorporate the other 3 billion people into the Internet community, developing countries will become the focus. China's new Net users in the countryside can serve as the best example.

In this process, these Silicon Valley-based CEOs and product managers will find it difficult to master their user experience and habits.

Instead, China's local enterprises such as Tencent and Alibaba will have more opportunities to acquire leadership in the new round of competition. It is only a matter of time for the development of the Chinese Internet to surpass that of its US counterpart.

Alibaba's IPO has unveiled the competition between China and the US in cyberspace. Although the US still gains an upper hand in the contest, China is catching up with it. And as long as China employs appropriate strategies, it will go beyond the US in many terms. In the future, China and the US will coexist in a mutually competitive and cooperative scenario.

Alibaba's success in IPO signals that Chinese Internet-based enterprises are getting more involved in globalization. The Internet has changed China, and it is time for China to change the Internet.

By Fang Xingdong Source:Global Times Published: 2014-9-22

The author is director of the Center for Internet and Society, Zhejiang University of Media and Communications. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

Alibaba Claims Title For Largest Global IPO Ever With Extra Share Sales

Alibaba Chairman Jack Ma celebrates his company's IPO at the New York Stock Exchange on Friday. (Photo: Mark Lennihan/AP)

 

http://onforb.es/1C5MgFY

 

By Liyan Chen, Ryan Mac and Brian Solomon, Forbes

After claiming the record for the largest US-listed initial public offering, Alibaba Group can now say its record-breaking IPO was the biggest in the world.

On Monday, the company announced that underwriters had exercised an option to purchase additional shares at the $68 IPO price, boosting the total amount raised by Chinese e-commerce giant and its selling shareholders from $21.8 billion to $25 billion. Bankers bought an additional 48 million American depositary shares, taking the total amount of shares sold in the offering to 368 million, or about 14.9% of the company.

In raising $25 billion, Alibaba’s IPO surpassed the 2010 offering from the Agricultural Bank of China, which raised $22.1 billion in it debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Alibaba was able to sell more shares due to its over-allotment, or “greenshoe,” option, which allows underwriters to placate investor demand for the stock by obtaining more shares from the company at the IPO price.

Existing shareholders Alibaba Chairman Jack Ma, Vice Chairman Joseph Tsai and Yahoo YHOO -5.57% provided the extra shares sold in the over-allotment. Ma sold an additional 2.7 million shares, selling a total of about 15.5 million shares in the IPO, while Tsai sold 5.2 million shares, after offloading an additional 900,000 shares in the greenshoe.

By selling in the over-allotment, Yahoo became the largest seller in Alibaba’s IPO, surpassing the 123 million shares offered directly from the Hangzhou-based company. Yahoo sold an additional 18.26 million shares, offloading a total of 140.3 million shares in the IPO for more than $9.5 billion in pre-tax cash.

Alibaba began trading on Friday on the New York Stock Exchange, with shares opening up at more than 35% above the $68 IPO price. On Monday, shares have fallen below the $90 mark, down more than 4% in intraday trading.

Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank , Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan , Morgan Stanley and Citigroup acted as joint book runners for the offering.

http://onforb.es/1C5MgFY

Alibaba's IPO Pop Makes Jack Ma The Richest Man In China

By Liyan Chen, Ryan Mac and Brian Solomon

The largest IPO in US history has put a new person on top of China’s richest.

As Alibaba shares surged over 35% to open at $92.70, founder and chairman Jack Ma’s stake in the company he founded boosted his net worth over $16 billion. That Alibaba stake pushes Ma above his rivals to the #1 spot as the wealthiest man in China. Ma’s total net worth grows higher when you calculate the $800 million in cash he pocketed by selling shares, which should rise to more than $1 billion once underwriters exercise their extra options. Ma also has separate stakes in private companies like Alibaba sister-company Alipay.

Ma’s rise to the top puts him ahead of former #1, Robin Li, another Chinese tech icon who founded search engine Baidu . Li sits at a net worth of $16.6 billion. Ma also leapfrogged the $15.5 billion man Pony Ma, whose Tencent is directly in competition with Alibaba over China’s growing mobile phone user base.

Ma’s net worth gain also places him into the top 10 richest people in tech worldwide, a group that includes Silicon Valley pioneers Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, Mark Zuckerberg, and Larry Page and Sergey Brin.

Read more about Alibaba’s first day of trading on Forbes’ live blog.
 

The Biggest U.S. IPOs In History

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AP Photo/Kin Cheung, File

The Biggest IPOs In U.S. History

Alibaba broke records as the largest IPO in history after pricing its offering at $68 per share on Sept. 18, 2014. After an overallotment option the total proceeds rose to $25 billion, easily surpassing the likes of Visa and Facebook.

Alibaba Plans To Raise As Much As $24 Billion In Biggest U.S. IPO Ever

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ryanmac/2014/09/05/alibaba-plans-to-raise-as-much-as-24-billion-in-whats-to-be-the-biggest-u-s-ipo-ever/

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Rightways Technologies: Showtime for Alibaba world-wide

Two weeks, three continents, and 100 meetings. That -- and founder Jack Ma celebrating his 50th birthday on the road -- is what it will take for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. to pull off the largest initial public offering in U.S. ...

 

Rightways Technologies: China's Internet giants, Tencent to undercut Alibaba with billion chat app users

 

Tencent Holdings Ltd. (700) faces the prospect of losing its position as Asia's most-valuable Internet company this year after Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) goes public. The Shenz

Make money from Facebook IPO!

Tan: How I made money from Facebook

By JAGDEV SINGH SIDHU jagdev@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: For a man who does not have a Facebook account, Tan Sri Vincent Tan surely knows the value of the Internet giant.

“I may have one later,” quips Tan on opening an account but he will be counting the windfall from the 3.5 million shares his company, MOL Global Bhd, owns in Facebook once the company is listed on either the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq.

Based on an assumption that Facebook shares start trading at US$40 post-initial public offering, Tan’s MOL Global stands to pocket RM420mil for its shares.

Speaking to StarBizWeek, Tan recollects how he came about getting his hands on a tiny but valuable stake in Facebook.

Tan: ‘We don’t want to hold them for too long.’

 

Friendster was among the first social networking websites. It preceded MySpace and Facebook. Starting operations in 2003, Friendster found the going tough and lost money for years.

The company continued to raise but spent money aggressively. In running up losses, Friendster had, nonetheless, built up a base of 140 million registered users, of which 40 million were active.

Tan said the losses then stemmed from Friendster not monetising its user base. Finding it hard to make money from its users, it was losing an average of US$10mil a year.

Eventually, the patience of the owners and investors in Friendster wore thin and they wanted to exit the business. Friendster then called for a process to sell the business and now Friendster CEO, Ganesh Kumar Bangah, who was then working with Tan, informed him that Friendster was for sale.

“I asked for the numbers and found that 140 million registered users and 40 million active users was interesting. If we could make them spend some money, maybe Friendster would be a good investment. Of course, the downside was the business will continue to lose US$10mil a year,” he said.

Tan said the owners of Friendster initially wanted US$100mil for the business but with losses mounting, he knew no one would pay that much for the company. “At that time, Facebook wanted to buy Friendster’s patents but Facebook was willing to pay US$10mil cash and later increased it to US$20mil cash.”

Tan was made to understand then that the owners felt that taking US$20mil only to lose US$10mil a year will soon see that cash vanish and then decided to accept US$40mil for Friendster but wanted a quick sale. “They gave the potential buyers about a week to decide. Many people were looking, including large firms from China and Japan, at Friendster.



“They were much larger than MOL but with the owners of Friendster needing a fast sale, I told Ganesh to do a quick due diligence on Friendster.

“We took two days for the due diligence and made a bid. We said since Friendster owed people US$2mil, we offered US$38mil.

“With other potential buyers doing their due diligence, I told them that if they accepted US$38mil, we will do the deal right away. They accepted our proposal,” said Tan.

After buying Friendster in 2008, Tan then turned his attention to Facebook, which remained interested in Friendster’s patents and whose offer of US$20mil cash for the technology rights was still on the table. “We had a conference call with the people at Facebook. I accepted their price but I wanted shares.”

Facebook officials told him that Mark Zuckerberg, the boss of Facebook, did not want to dilute the shares in the company but Tan stood firm and said “if there was no shares, forget it”.

Tan insisted on getting shares in Facebook because he felt the company will be big in the future. Finally, Zuckerberg agreed to a share exchange for the patents and Tan got his 700,000 shares. His shares have grown to 3.5 million following a 5-for-1 split in Facebook’s shares before the IPO process.

Tan did not leave Friendster to languish but devised a plan to get the social networking website to breakeven point. He closed the US, Singapore and Australia offices to cut cost and began rebuilding the company.

This year, Friendster has stopped the bleeding and Tan felt the company has become “quite valuable”.

“The number of active users on Friendster has fallen from 40 million to four million but these four million spend money with us. We put games and all kind of things on the website and they spend money. If they didn’t, we cannot monetise the business,” he said.

Potentially, Tan values his Internet business at around RM1bil. It does business in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and India and is trying to get into Vietnam and many other countries.

MOL makes money from points people buy to play online games. It is also a payments gateway and is a payment partner for Facebook and Zynga, which is the creator of the hugely popular Farmville.

Tan said business models employed by companies such as Zynga, instead of relying on advertising revenue, was how large sums of money can be made from the Internet.

“People play and buy cows and tractors for their game. It’s amazing why people pay so much for that and I cannot imagine it.

“I tell my kids ‘you don’t play Farmville. If you want to farm, you can go to Bukit Tinggi. I will give you a real farm’,” he laughs.

Will he hold or sell his Facebook shares?

“We will see where it goes,” said Tan. “We will probably sell them for our business. We don’t want to hold them for too long but will see where the shares go after the IPO.”

At any price, the Facebook shares Tan owns has been hugely rewarding and the profit from the shares means the Friendster acquisition was paid for plus a lot extra profit on the side. “We were lucky,” he said.

So where does this investment rank among the many that Tan has executed in his corporate life?

“It’s one of the good ones but none can beat DiGi,” he said. “DiGi was my best investment and I should have stayed with it. I sold when DiGi had a market capitalisation of RM5bil to RM6bil. Today, the company is worth some RM31bil.

“That’s the big one that got away,” he lamented.

Vincent Tan awaits Facebook IPO windfall

By CHOONG EN HAN han@thestar.com.my

 His stake in the social networking service company may be worth RM420m

PETALING JAYA: Tan Sri Vincent Tan is definitely going to “like” the much anticipated Facebook Inc initial public offering (IPO) as his stake in the world's largest social networking service company could be worth as much as RM420mil.

MOL Global Bhd, which is controlled by Tan, is said to have 3.5 million shares in Facebook and assuming the IPO price is set at US$40 a piece, this would translate to US$140mil (RM420mil), and even more after the listing. sources said.

However, the amount is still an estimated value as Facebook has yet to reveal its share price information and its valuation is still speculative.

Facebook has been discussing raising as much as US$10bil, making the IPO the biggest Internet or technology IPO the market has ever seen.

“With the outstanding shares of Facebook of about 1.88 billion, the stake of MOL does not even come close to 1%,” said the source.

Given the share base of Facebook, MOL Global's stake represents about 0.19% of the social networking service.

MOL Global is currently the payment partner for Facebook, as well as with game developer Zynga, which made its name through popular social games such as Farmville.

MOL Global first got its hands on the stake in Facebook in 2010 when it sold off the patents of Friendster, the world's first social networking site, to Facebook.

As part of the deal, it received 700,000 shares in Facebook which subsequently increased to 3.5 million shares last year after Facebook initiated a 5-for-1 split of the company's shares.

MOL Global made global headlines when it acquired Friendster for US$39mil in 2008, after winning the bid in an open tender against Chinese game and instant messaging company Tencent and other bidders.

According to regulatory filings for the US IPO, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg currently has a 28.4% stake in his company, with about 533.8 million shares.

The company said it conducted its own valuation of its stock at the end of each quarter, and as of Dec 31, it had determined its shares to be worth US$29.73 a piece.

In 2011, Facebook pocketed about US$1bil on a revenue of US$3.7bil with over 845 million monthly active users. In 2010, it made US$606mil.

The company's main revenue are derived from advertising, while another US$557mil came from payments, with most of the non-advertising funds coming from social-gaming partner Zynga.

M'sians to benefit from facebook IPO windfall

A FEW weeks ago, the fortunes of 70 households in an isolated farming village in Spain changed forever.
Initially the residents of Sodeto wanted to give Spain's huge Christmas lottery, known as El Gordo, a miss, because they were facing tough times due to the economic downturn and a severe drought.

But they bought tickets anyway out of loyalty to the homemakers' association and they hit the jackpot. Some of the farmers and unemployed people became instant millionaires.

Everyone in town had a share except for one man, who was apparently overlooked. Sadly, he will never find out what it takes to make a bet.

That brings me to the topic of Facebook.

Facebook is a social networking company that has changed the lives of many, and perhaps, destroyed some too. But who would have thought that Mark Zuckerberg and his college roommates could have created such a company way back in 2004 that could be raking revenues of more than US$3.7bil today.

Facebook started as a site that allowed students to interact via the Web, but later made accessible to everyone, thereby intensifying competition with sites such as MySpace and Friendster, founded two years before.

Going public: A ‘like’ sign is seen at the main entrance of Facebook’s headquarters in Menlo Park, California. Zuckerberg (inset) says the scale of the technology and infrastructure that must be built is unprecedented — AFP

Eight years later, it is going for a listing on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq. The company is considering a valuation of US$75bil to US$100bil. Going forward, its biggest challenge is about keeping the advertising momentum because advertising is its key source of revenue.

Today, Facebook has over 800 million users and the numbers are growing every day because Facebook has created enough buzz that even a seven-year-old or a 60-year-old wants to get connected on Facebook.

Out of all this buzz, who would have thought that a Malaysian company MOL Global Ltd would have something to cheer about as Facebook goes for listing.

This smallish company is making headlines like never before.

MOL Global is majority owned by billionaire Tan Sri Vincent Tan and MOL group CEO Ganesh Kumar Bangah holds just over 10% in the company.

Tan is a well-known billionaire who has made a lot of bets, some have made him richer, others just fizzled out. Today, his empire spans across several sectors and several countries and he continues to make more bets to expand it further.

The story of MOL Global began in 2000, during the dot.com era.

He bought over his brother Tan Sri Danny Tan's company, Dijaya Corp, and renamed it MOL.Com Bhd. Like a venture capitalist, he invested in over 30 Internet companies, including Bangah's MOL Access. Of the 30, perhaps two or three grew.

MOL Access is involved in online games and was subsequently listed on the Mesdaq board in 2003, but privatised in 2008.

In late 2009, MOL.Com bought over Friendster for US$39mil and, in the same year, MOL Global was set up in Singapore. Today MOL Global owns Friendster and the MOL Access Portal.

In July 2010, Facebook forged a partnership with MOL Global for the patents of Friendster. For that, MOL Global received 700,000 shares in Facebook stock and that explains why it has a stake in Facebook.

Today, MOL Global's stake could be potentially worth US$140mil on assumption that Facebook may be valued at US$40 a share but any gain can only be realised if the shares are sold and there is a capital repayment or dividend payout.

Analysts are comparing Google's valuation with that of Facebook. The world's favourite search engine went public in 2004 and Google's shares were priced at US$85 at issue but are now at US$583. Can Facebook reach that level?

That aside, a question to ponder is, had Tan pushed the growth of Friendster, would Friendster's position be like Facebook today?

Whatever, only Tan knows if this was his best bet ever. Who will ever know?
Deputy news editor B.K. Sidhu hopes Zuckerberg will know how to reward the 845 million Facebook users who have helped him get his biggest break in his life and if he needs lessons on goodwill, then he should read up how Maxis Bhd rewarded some of its users when the company was listed and re-listed.

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US no longer ‘AAA’, Eurozone the next?

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US no longer ‘AAA’

WHAT ARE WE TO DO By TAN SRI LIN SEE-YAN

STANDARD & Poor's (S&P's) had on Aug 5 cut the US long-term credit rating by a notch to AA-plus (from AAA). This unprecedented move reflected concerns about the US's budget deficits and rising debt burden. It called the outlook “negative,” indicating that another downgrade is possible in the next 12-18 months.

According to S&P's, the Aug 2 debt deal which cut spending by US$2.1 trillion, didn't go far enough: “It's going to take a deal about twice the size to stabilise the debt to GDP ratio.” It also stressed what it saw as the inability of the US political establishment to commit to an adequate and credible debt reduction plan: “The effectiveness, stability & predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges.” Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings haven't followed S&P's move causing a split rating. They had earlier (on Aug 2) affirmed their AAA credit ratings for the US, while warning that downgrades were possible, grading the outlook as negative. At the same time, China's only rating agency (Dagong Global Credit Rating) downgraded the US from A-plus to A saying the deal won't solve underlying US debt problems.

US downgrade

What does a rating downgrade mean? For the US, it will affect its borrowing costs eventually and immediately, investor opinion of US assets. According to Sifma (a US securities industry trade group), the downgrade could add up to 0.7 of 1 percentage point to US Treasury yields, thereby increasing funding costs for US public debt by some US$100bil. But the US dollar has a special position as the numeraire of global transactions; it is also a reserve currency, and often regarded as a safe haven in times of uncertainty. Ironically, in the recent sell-off in equities world-wide following the S&P's downgrade, US government bonds was a big beneficiary. Its benchmark 10-year bond yields fell 21 basis points on Monday to 2.35%, the biggest one day drop since January 2009; by Wednesday, it was 2.14%, the lowest yield on record. Two year US Treasuries yield touched a record low of 0.23% and then, fell further to 0.184% on Wednesday. In the panic, Treasuries appear to be still the way to go.

With the downgrade, US no longer warrant the top-tier rating it enjoyed since 1941 (Moody has had a AAA on the US since 1917). At AA+, the US is still considered to have a “strong” ability to service its debt. Only Canada, Germany, France & UK still carry triple-A at S&P's. The downgrade didn't affect US short-term rating which remains at A-1+, the highest at S&P's. In a follow through, S&P's downgraded numerous government related enterprises (notably Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which together hold more than one-half of US mortgages), 73 investment funds (fixed income funds, hedge funds, etc) and 10 insurance companies for their large holdings of Treasuries. But banks were spared on the implicit “too big to fail” policy of the government. Nevertheless, the US bond market retains widespread appeal. At more than US$35 trillion at end-March, this market is broad, liquid and deep. The Treasuries market alone has US$9.3 trillion debt outstanding. But in the end, the market decides. Consider Japan S&P's downgraded it in 2002. Today, Japan is still able to borrow freely & cheaply. As of Aug 9, interest rate on Japan's 10-year bonds stood at just 1.045% and 30-years, at below 2%. In practice, for the US, a double A-plus still works like a de facto triple-A.

Market rebound: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday — AP
 

Immediate global sell-off

When markets opened following the weekend downgrade, a global panic sell-off in equities took over.  There was a lot of fear and uncertainty in the markets, reflecting a confluence of three main factors:

● uncertainty about the US economy faltering, raising the risk of a double-dip recession;
● worries that the downgrade could further undermine US consumer confidence & business spending adding another layer of anxiety on the global economic outlook; and
● fear the euro-zone debt crisis will spin out of control, spooking investors.

All this took its toll. Stock markets plunged around the world with funds flowing into havens, such as gold (up 60% since 2010, surpassing US$1,800 a troy ounce), Swiss francs (up 24% against euro and 32% on US dollar over the past year) and ironically, US Treasuries. In Asia, markets closed at their lowest levels in about a year. Key benchmarks in Hong Kong, Seoul, Mumbai and Sydney skidded for the fifth consecutive day. Shares in China, Taiwan and South Korea plunged sharply before recovering some ground. All closed nearly 4% lower on Monday. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index had its worst day since the 2008 financial crisis, falling another 5.6% on Tuesday; it had fallen by 16.7% in the past six sessions, or more than 20% from its recent peak. South Korea's Kospi was down 3.6% and Indonesia's main stock exchange fell 3%. At its close, the KL Bursa lost another 1.7% on Aug 9 (-1.8% on Aug 8). Japan's Nikkei fell 2.2% to its weakest level since the March earthquake. India's Bombay stock index declined 1.6%, its fifth drop in a row.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) recovered 1.5% on Tuesday after a record 635 point fall (-5.5%) in sell-offs on Monday. The German DAX closed further down 5% and the Paris CAC 4.7% lower while the FTSE 100 in London fell another 3.4%. The Stoxx Europe 600 index ended 1.4% higher following a 4.1% slide on Monday, although underlying sentiment remained extremely fragile. The VIX which tracks stock market volatility, reached its highest since the initial Greek debt crisis in May 2010. It rose 20% to 38.5 on Monday afternoon and then to 40.5 on Tuesday, reflecting extreme fear and emotional trading. It measures the price investors pay for protective options on the S&P's 500 index. After Monday's sharp share-price drop and the previous week's poor performance, China and Hong Kong aren't the only markets at or near bear territory. Stocks in Germany & France are now down more than 20% (definition of a bear market), from highs reached in the previous year. India's benchmark Bombay Sensex is down 20%, and Japan's Nikkei is off 16.5%.

A day after US stocks received a boost from the Fed to keep interest rates low until 2013, markets in the US and Europe resumed their plunge on Wednesday. The fear: politicians across the Atlantic won't be able to manage the significant headwinds buffeting the US & European economies. Woes were focused on France, where its bank stocks plunged amid worries it may lose its triple-A status. The Paris CAC-40 index fell 5.4%. In the US, the DJIA was down 4.62% (-520 points) wiping out Tuesday's surge. The Fed had run out of bullets. Asian stocks advanced Wednesday with sentiment helped by a strong Wall Street rebound. However, gains in most markets lacked the passion observed on the way down. Hong Kong was up 2.3%, South Korea, 0.3% and Taiwan, 3.3%. All three were still down more than 10% so far in August. Japan was up 1.1%, Australia, 2.6% and China, 0.9%. But Stoxx Europe 600 was down 3.7%. Expectations are for the markets to remain choppy. On Thursday, most Asian markets were back in negative territory. But Europe closed stronger (up about 3%) and the DJIA surged by 4% (+423 points).



European contagion 

Italy and Spain, the euro-zone's third and fourth largest economies, have a combined GDP of nearly 2.7 trillion euros, about 30% of the eurozone total. For nearly two years, the European Union (EU) has been trying to stem the unfolding debt crisis. The July 21 Greek bailout bought some time not much to ward off further contagion. The European Central Bank's (ECB) decision on Aug 7 to buy Italian and Spanish debt represents a watershed in EU's continuing battle against turning ECB into the lender of last resort. The ECB has insisted the main responsibility to act lies with national governments. Given worries of a new bout of contagion sweeping European and global markets, ECB defended the new intervention as restoring the “normal functioning of markets through a better transmission of monetary policy.” ECB's continued bond-buying brought benchmark Spanish borrowing costs for 10-year bonds down to 5.019% on Tuesday, close to their lows for the year. Italian 10-year bond yields also fell to a one month low of 5.143%. Both countries' yields had approached 6.5% last week a level that eventually escalated to push Greece, Ireland & Portugal into bail-outs. Analysts estimate ECB could have bought up to 10 billion euros, a small fraction relative to the size of Spain & Italy's debt markets. Italy's debt alone is 1.8 trillion euros.

Market sentiment aside, the purchases did little to change the fundamental backdrop in Europe where economic growth has slowed even in the “core” nations of Germany & France. Signs of stress remain despite the positive market reactions to ECB's decision. Deposits at ECB, for example, hit a 2011 high of 145 billion euros on Monday, reflecting banks' reluctance to lend inter-bank preferring the safety of ECB. There is a limit to how deeply ECB can be drawn into the fiscal misadventures of its members. Concerns are mounting on the French economy because of its high debt levels (85% of GDP, already above the US & rising) and weak growth prospects. Germany, in much better shape, isn't immune either. Already, the cost of insuring German bonds against default using credit-default swaps (CDSs) rose above 85 basis points, higher than insuring UK bonds for the first time on Tuesday, despite the London riots. There is growing concern the new austerity measures in Italy & Spain will slacken their struggling economies, plagued also by social unrest.

What's wrong with the US economy?

The recession ended two years ago. The stumbling recovery may turn out to be the worst ever. Most indicators are not reassuring unemployment at 9.1% is still too high and jobs creation too slow; GDP growth is faltering, income growth continues lagging behind; household wealth is falling; banks are not lending enough; and consumer expectations have not been positive. In the last eight recoveries, lost jobs were regained within two years of recession's end. This recovery is still seven million jobs below peak employment in 2008 and about two million fewer than if unemployment was held below 8%. The US economy will remain lacklustre for some years because of heavy household debt, a financial system deeply scared by mortgages, and a dysfunctional political establishment. Heavy household debt and a dismal job market have hurt consumers' confidence, further dampening their willingness to spend. The only bright spot is exports, reflecting the weak US dollar and still booming emerging economies. Unexpectedly, the pace of growth in US services fell in July to its lowest level since February 2010. Taken alongside disappointing manufacturing data, the services sector showed-up an economy with weak hopes of a rebound in the second half of this year, after an anaemic first half. According to Harvard's Martin Feldstein, “This economy is really balanced on the edge. There is now a 50% chance that we could slide into a new recession.” Even Prof Larry Summers now concedes: “The odds of the economy going back into recession are at least one in three.”

The US problem is more a job and growth deficit than an excessive budget deficit. The diagnosis of the run-up in debt out of control spending by the Federal government, is exaggerated. Indeed, the “cure” of severe spending cuts is likely to make recovery more difficult. The real problem lies in the fall-off in tax revenue. From 20% of GDP in 1998-2001, tax revenue has fallen steadily: averaging just 17% of GDP from 2002-08 and then, to below 15% in 2009-10. About 50% of the rise in deficit was due to the downturn because of “automatic stabilisers”, reflecting cyclical revenue falls and higher spending to assist the unemployed and other transfers to help the poor. They contribute to demand and assist to “stabilise” the economy.

The US rating downgrade is a warning bell. On present trend, its debt burden is unsustainable and the US political system seems unable to reverse it. To do so, it needs faster growth can't cut its way to growth. What's required is tax reform and a will to restore revenues back to the 20% of GDP trend; a prospect most Republicans have castigated. At issue is not the US government's capacity to service its debt, John Kay of the Financial Times pointed out. It is the “willingness of the government to repay.” If sovereign borrowers meet their obligations, it is only because “they want to.”

● Former banker, Dr Lin is a Harvard educated economist and a British Chartered Scientist who now spends time writing, teaching & promoting the public interest. Feedback is most welcome; email: starbizweek@thestar.com.my.