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Showing posts with label Trade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trade. Show all posts

Sunday, 25 May 2025

How Asean can ease the birth pains of the multipolar world

 

Power shift: Asean has a big opportunity this week to help usher in the new world order. — Bernama

ON April 2, US President Donald Trump smashed the World Trade Organisation’s system of multilateral trade by announcing the imposition of tariffs, starting at midnight on April 9, on imports from “cheater” countries that were engaging in unfair trade practice. To Trump, a cheater is one that exports more goods to the United States than it imports.

This is nonsensical reasoning. A bilateral trade deficit is not evidence of being “cheated” because the payment to my barber does not mean that I have been cheated and my salary does not imply that my employer has been bamboozled. This nonsense shows that the tariff war is only marginally related to unfair trade practices. The two key reasons for the tariffs are to increase wages by bringing manufacturing jobs back to America and to cement US primacy in the global order with a show of force.

Tragically, the tariffs will neither revive manufacturing nor preserve US primacy. Tariffs will temporarily expand employment in a few sunset industries, but wages will remain stagnant because productivity growth potential in those sectors is nonexistent.

The immediate response to Trump’s show of force were precipitous collapses in the prices of US stocks and bonds, and the value of the US dollar. Investors recognised that this Great Wall of Tariffs had isolated the US economy, inevitably impoverishing it. Hence, 13 hours after the tariffs came into force, Trump suspended them for every trading partner except China. This climbdown made clear that the real target is China, which the US perceives to be an unfriendly power (eg, being friendly to Iran) that is engaging in unfair trading practices (eg piracy of US technologies).

The economist Adam Smith had anticipated this kind of clash in 1776. He observed that the three centuries of globalisation that began with the discovery of the Americas in 1492 and the discovery of the sea route from Europe to India in 1498 had overwhelmingly benefited Europe because its much greater military might enabled it to pillage instead of trade.

Smith, however, foresaw a reversal: the diffusion of technology through trade would eventually narrow the gap between the two groups. The economic rise of Japan, South Korea, China, and India is ushering in today’s messy transition from a unipolar to a multipolar order.

Asean should be guided by two understandings in navigating this transition.

The first is that the current US-China confrontation stems from their shared recognition that the prevention of war would require an eventual agreement on their respective spheres of influence. We are witnessing a defensive race between them to expand their spheres of influence, which is why the US has asserted its rights over Canada, Greenland, Panama, and Gaza; and China’s nine-dash line in the South China Sea has brought its maritime border to the doorstep of several Asean nations.

States that lock themselves into Washington’s orbit will be under strong pressure to decouple from Chinese technology and to shrink commercial ties with the world’s largest trader – sacrificing not only today’s access to the Chinese market (prospectively, tomorrow’s access to India) and compromising their sovereignty.

The second understanding is that this transition has created systemic dangers that require institutional responses. These new dangers include the Thucydides Trap which is the risk of war between rising and established powers; the Kindleberger Trap where inadequate international cooperation leads to ineffective handling of global disasters like climate change; and the Tragedy of the Commons which identifies the coming collapse of the food chain.

The Cold War 2.0 is causing growing collateral damage to Asean. A viable alternative to membership by Asean states in one of the spheres of influence is for Asean to cooperate with other middle power countries to form a nonpartisan club that functions as a buffer zone between the spheres of influence.

It is crucial for this club to achieve critical mass quickly – being big enough in population and GDP to earn begrudging acceptance by Washington, Beijing, and Moscow for its right to remain a neutral force. To achieve critical mass quickly, the founding group of countries must be kept to a manageable number to ease negotiations.

Asean must avoid instinctively shaping a Global South response like convening a new Bandung Conference (which brought together 29 newly independent Asian and African countries in 1955). The goal is not to accentuate class warfare at the international level but to maintain economic globalisation, world peace, and environmental sustainability.

To achieve critical mass quickly, this club must also bridge the Global South and the Global North. After establishing deep cooperation among Asean, Japan and South Korea (thereby setting the tone of North-South cooperation), this Asian grouping should propose to the European Union and United Kingdom the formation of the Atlantic-Pacific Sustainability Partnership (APSP).

The APSP would serve three core functions: (a) defend economic globalisation with a free trade area based on open regionalism; (b) defend global peace and environmental sustainability with a sustainability caucus to reduce tensions among major powers and coordinate actions on common challenges like pandemics; and (c) defend mutual aid with a development assistance agency guided by the 17 United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to counterbalance the use of development aid by major powers as a means of political influence.

Given the accelerated growth of Asean under this new system, the economic weight of the APSP would be more than twice that of China or the US by 2045, making it necessary for US and China to join the APSP to avoid defeat through self-marginalisation.

When this happens, the APSP would have crowded out Cold War 2.0 with cooperative multilateralism.- by  Prof Datuk Dr Woo Wing Thye

Renowned economist Prof Datuk Dr Woo Wing Thye is a visiting professor at Universiti Malaya and research professor at Sunway University. He is also Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of California, Davis; University Chair Professor at Liaoning University; and Distinguished Fellow at the Penang Institute. 

The views expressed here are solely the writer’s own.

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Friday, 18 April 2025

Malaysia will be China’s friend at all times, 31 MOUs inked in ‘new golden era’

 

PUTRAJAYA: Malaysia will remain an unwavering and principled friend to China during “moments of triumph and times of trial”, says Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim

The Prime Minister said Malaysia and China have long stood shoulder to shoulder – not merely as comprehensive strategic partners, but as steadfast friends.

“Malaysia values this consistency. Malaysia will remain an unwavering and principled friend to China, guided by the wisdom of history and the promise of the future,” he said in a speech during the official dinner in honour of President Xi Jinping last night.

At a time when multilateralism is under tremendous strain, as certain nations abandon the principle of shared responsibility and others question long-standing commitments, Anwar said China’s global initiatives seem to offer a new lease on hope. 

“What we are witnessing today is not an honest reckoning with the imperfections of globalisation, but a retreat into economic tribalism. 

“Market access is being wea­ponised. What was once a multilateral covenant for shared growth now buckles under the weight of arbitrary disruption and unilateral whim.

“Amid this turbulence, China has been a rational, strong and reliable partner,” he said

Anwar said Malaysia’s foreign policy was shaped by a “clear-eyed” vision of its interest and the principle of Asean centrality.

“We do not simply favour coope­ration over confrontation (but) we embrace it. We do not merely prefer respect over rivalry, we uphold it.

“And we choose dialogue, not simply because it chose us, but as a cornerstone of lasting peace and prosperity,” he said.

The Prime Minister said that during these trying times, the world yearns for steadiness, reliability and purpose.

“We see this in China’s conduct. Malaysia acknowledges such steadiness with quiet recognition and remains conscious not only of the calm it has brought, but of the hope it may continue to offer,” said Anwar.

He said under the leadership of Xi, China has outlined a series of global initiatives that reflect a distinctive worldview.

He said the Belt and Road Initiative reimagines connectivity not as a network of roads and rails, but as a framework for cooperation.

“The Global Development Initiative underscores the importance of inclusive progress.

“The Global Security Initiative calls for peace through dialogue,” he said.

“Each of these ideas reflects a broader aspiration of what President Xi has described as a community with a shared future for mankind. 

“This brings to mind the famous saying of Confucius, that ‘within the four seas, all men are brothers’,” added Anwar, who said the phrase in Chinese.

He said he also hoped that Malaysia and China would endure a long-lasting relationship.

Malaysia and China deepen partnership with major deals on trade, tech and tourism

PUTRAJAYA: Malaysia and China have signed 31 memoranda of understanding (MOUs), notes and cooperation agreements with the highlight being a mutual visa exemption for travellers between the two countries.

Currently, Malaysians can tra­vel to China visa-free until Dec 31 this year, while Chinese nationals enjoy visa-free travel to Malaysia until Dec 31 next year.

The exemption was in conjunction with the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Malaysia and China.

Other strategic areas of coope­ration include security, development, trade, transport, agriculture, education and digital technology.

The exchange of documents, which took place at the Seri Perdana Complex yesterday, was witnessed by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Among the key agreements signed with ministries and agencies is one concerning giant pandas, comprising an MOU on the Cooperative Research Agreement for the International Conservation of Giant Pandas.

Strategic talks: Anwar and Xi with their delegates during a bilateral meeting at the Seri Perdana Complex in Putrajaya. — AZHAR MAHFOF/The StarStrategic talks: Anwar and Xi with their delegates during a bilateral meeting at the Seri Perdana Complex in Putrajaya. — AZHAR MAHFOF/The Star

Additionally, under the Invest­ment, Trade and Industry Minis­try, three MOUs were signed, including one aimed at upgrading the China-Malaysia “Two Coun­tries, Twin Parks” initiative.

Also, three MOUs were inked under the Tourism, Arts and Culture Ministry, including tourism and media cooperation between Xinhua News Agency from China and Malaysia Tourism Promotion Board.

There was also an exchange of notes between China and Malay­sia on the establishment of a joint foreign and defence dialogue.

Under the Transport Ministry, Malaysia and China signed an MOU between the National Railway Administration of China and the Transport Ministry to strengthen cooperation in the railway sector.

Meanwhile, the Digital Ministry and China’s National Develop­ment and Reform Commission inked an MOU on the digital economy, while the Domestic Trade and Cost of Living Ministry signed an agreement on cooperation in the field of intellectual property.

Several MOUs were also signed with media groups and universities, including one on bilateral cooperation between China’s People’s Daily and Star Media Group Bhd.

At the start of a bilateral mee­ting, Anwar remarked that Malaysia remains committed to working together with China in various areas, including economy, trade, and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence.

The Prime Minister stated that China is not only a close neighbour but also an important partner through the comprehensive strategic partnership, which reflects the deep trust and long-­standing cooperation between the two nations.

Toasting ties: Anwar and Xi attending the official dinner in honour of the Chinese President at the Seri Perdana Complex. — BernamaToasting ties: Anwar and Xi attending the official dinner in honour of the Chinese President at the Seri Perdana Complex. — Bernama

Recalling his previous visit to China, Anwar said: “As I have said to you when we met in China, President Xi exemplifies a new type of persona, a leader who talks about growth and investment and economic advancement.

“He also talks about eliminating poverty and has proven his success, more importantly about shared prosperity and civilisation, which is hardly expressed by any modern leader in this world.

“We admire your tenacity and for that Malaysians welcome you, President Xi, not only as president of a great country, the President of China, but as a true friend.”

In his remarks, Xi announced a bold and shared vision for the future of China-Malaysia relations, pledging to elevate the partnership to unprecedented strategic heights.

He said both countries are committed to forging an even stronger bond, promising mutual benefits and enhanced regional prosperity.

“This marks my return to Malaysia after 12 years, during which the nation has achieved remarkable progress in its develop­ment.

“Your Madani government is steadily becoming a promising reality, and I extend my heartfelt congratulations,” he said.

Xi recalled the pivotal establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Malaysia over five decades ago, which defied the tensions of the Cold War.

He also highlighted the solida­rity exhibited by both nations during the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Today, our two countries are working in unity to jointly build a community with a shared future. China-Malaysia relations are now entering a new golden era,” he said

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Friday, 8 November 2024

Promote steady improvement and growth in China-US relations through the right way forward

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Chinese President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory message to Donald J. Trump on his election as the next President of the US on Thursday. Xi noted that history tells us that both countries stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation. A China-US relationship with stable, healthy and sustainable development serves the common interests of the two countries and meets the expectations of the international community. It is hoped that the two sides will, in the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, enhance dialogue and communication, properly manage differences, expand mutually beneficial cooperation, and find the right way for China and the US to get along with each other in the new era to the benefit of the two countries and the world.

We have noticed that President Xi's congratulatory message has received widespread attention and reports from international community. Phrases such as "China and the US must live in harmony in the new era," "Hopefully China and the US can find a way to get along" and "China and the US must live in harmony and manage differences" have become the themes of many media reports, fully reflecting the world's expectation for China-US relations. After the dust settled from the US elections, amidst the world's many concerns and worries regarding China-US relations, China's attitude undoubtedly provides valuable certainty and stability for both China-US relations and the world.

Where are China and the US headed? The Chinese side's answer to this question, including its attitude toward China-US relations, has been consistent. Although the situations of both countries and their relationship have undergone significant changes, China's commitment to the goal of a stable, healthy and sustainable China-US relationship remains unchanged; its principle in handling the relationship based on mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation remains unchanged; its position of firmly safeguarding the country's sovereignty, security and development interests remains unchanged; and its efforts to carry forward the traditional friendship between the Chinese and American people remain unchanged. The four "unchanged" aspects reflect both strategic clarity and a sense of responsibility.

History and reality have repeatedly proven that China-US relations are not a zero-sum game in which one side loses and the other wins, or one rises and the other falls, because the two countries have enormous common interests. Forty-five years ago, it was the common interests that allowed China and the US to open the door of interaction that had been frozen for decades. By tapping into complementarity and drawing on each other's strengths, the two countries have significantly promoted the development of their respective economies and optimized and upgraded their industrial structures, while enhancing the efficiency and benefits of the global value chain. Today, China is one of the top three export markets for 32 US states, with more than 70,000 US companies investing and establishing businesses in China and 930,000 jobs in the US supported by exports to China alone. It can be seen that both China and the US have benefited from decades of generally stable bilateral relations, and it is in the two countries' mutual and fundamental interest to prevent conflict and confrontation and achieve peaceful coexistence.

China-US relations are not a multiple-choice question involving whether or not to do a good job, but a must-answer question on how to do a good job. Just as President Xi stressed, when China and the US work together, they can accomplish a great deal for the good of both countries and the world at large. There are many "cooperation common denominators" between China and the US. After the Chinese giant pandas Yaya and Lele arrived in the US, the number of visitors to the Memphis Zoo surged 46 percent. Last month, Baoli and Qingbao going to Washington caused quite a sensation; Tesla's win-win story of building a factory in Shanghai is still continuing; there is still ample room for cooperation between the two sides in trade, education, anti-drugs, justice, technology and other fields. In the face of a complex and intertwined international situation, the world looks to China and the US to lead international cooperation in addressing global issues. Countries around the world need to unite and collaborate, rather than divide and confront; the people of the world hope for openness and progress, rather than closure and regression.

China-US relations have weathered many storms over the past few decades, during which numerous pessimistic predictions have emerged. However, what people have actually seen is that whenever difficulties arise, it is cooperation - not confrontation - that resolves the issues. What pushes the relationship between the two countries as well as global peace and development to move forward is always win-win cooperation for mutual benefit rather than a zero-sum game. For China and the US, dialogue is better than confrontation, cooperation is better than decoupling, and stability is better than volatility. Regardless of changes in US domestic politics, this should be a shared consensus between both sides and a responsibility of these two major countries. China and the US must find the right way to coexist, as the fundamental lesson in the development of relations between the two countries is that we both stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation.

The US side needs to recognize that China also has the right to develop. China's development is an opportunity for the US and the world, not a challenge. In fact, it has been proven that engaging in trade wars, industrial wars, and technological wars yields no winners. Attempting to solve problems through "decoupling" will only lead to opposite results. Forcing countries around the world to "choose sides" between China and the US has become an increasingly unpopular "multiple-choice question" for many nations. The US, in particular, should not tread on China's red lines regarding issues of sovereignty, security, and development interests.

The China-US relationship is the most important bilateral relationship in the world. How China and the US interact will determine the future and destiny of humanity. We hope that the US side will meet the Chinese side halfway to find the right way for two different civilizations, systems, and paths to coexist peacefully and develop together on this planet, promoting stability in China-US relations and striving for improvement and progress on this basis.


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Tuesday, 5 March 2024

We choose our own friends, China remains a key ally

MELBOURNE: As a “fiercely independent” nation, Malaysia will not be dictated to by anyone over its relations with China or any of its important neighbours, says Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

“While we remain an important friend to the United States, Europe and here in Australia, that should not preclude us from being friendly to one of our important neighbours, specifically China,” the Prime Minister said.

“We are fiercely independent. We do not want to be dictated to by any force.

“If they have problems with China, they should not impose them upon us. We do not have a problem with China,” Anwar said in a joint press conference with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese during his official visit to the country yesterday.

Asked about how Sinophobia manifested itself and its effect on the region, Anwar replied that Malaysia upholds an “open trading policy to encourage investments from foreign countries.”

“They have levied some criticisms against us for giving additional focus to China. Right now, China seems to be the leading investor in Malaysia.

“Cumulatively, it’s still the United States of America,” he added.

On Feb 27, Anwar had decried “China-phobia” among US and Western allies in an interview with the Financial Times in the United States, questioning why Malaysia would “pick a quarrel” with China, its largest trading partner, in response to US criticism of Malaysia’s ties with Beijing.

“Why must I be tied to one interest? I don’t buy into this strong prejudice against China, this China-phobia.”

Calling China an important neighbour, he said Malaysia would give priority to enhancing relations with Beijing in terms of trade, investment and culture.

Anwar, who is in Australia with his wife Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail and several ministers and leaders, will attend two major programmes – the Malaysia-Australia Annual Leaders’ Meeting and the Asean-Australia Special Summit.


Warm welcome: Anwar shaking hands with Albanese at Government House in Melbourne, Victoria. Looking on is Governor of Victoria, Margaret Gardener. — BernamaWarm welcome: Anwar shaking hands with Albanese at Government House in Melbourne, Victoria. Looking on is Governor of Victoria, Margaret Gardener. — Bernama

On the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Anwar lauded the Syrian government for supporting the call for a ceasefire and enhancing media efforts in Gaza.

“The consensus is in calling for a ceasefire and good humanitarian support, and probably avoiding the contentious issues between Palestine and Israel. At least for now, it is to cease fire and provide humanitarian assistance.”

Albanese also reiterated his call to end civilian suffering through a humanitarian ceasefire, the release of hostages, and a two-state political solution for Palestinians and Israelis to live with security and stability.

On the 10th anniversary of flight MH370, which went missing on March 8, 2014, Anwar said Malaysia would not hesitate to renew the search for the aircraft if there was “compelling evidence.”

“We will be glad to reopen (the search) because I don’t think it’s a technical issue. It is an issue affecting the lives of people, and whatever needs to be done must be done,” he said.

Both Anwar and Albanese also agreed that Malaysia and Australia would like to achieve more growth in trade and economic relations, especially in green energy and education.

“There’s a real potential for further institutional investment from Australia into Malaysia as well, with universities and tertiary education being a real prospect.

“Australia remains an important supplier of LNG to Malaysia. We have so much in common in our economies that is quite complementary,” Albanese said.

He also said Australia was focused on this region despite receiving critical commentary about it sometimes.

“We make no apologies for our focus being on South-East Asia in the Indo-Pacific because this is where our future economic prosperity will be determined.

“We’re living in this region, the fastest-growing region of the world. What that presents is an enormous opportunity for both our nations,” he said.

Anwar replied that Malaysia was committed to facilitating all avenues that both countries could explore – including renewable energy, green technology, digitalisation, food security and education opportunities involving top Australian institutions.

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Sunday, 17 December 2023

Goodbye 2023; Hello 2024

 


2023 will be remembered as a tipping point year when almost all mega-trends of finance, technology, trade, geopolitics, war and climate heating showed signs of acceleration in speed, scale and scope.


You can call this a state of permacrises, a series of cascading shocks that seem to be building up to a bigger shock sometime in the future.

In finance, the year began with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on 10 March 2023, followed by Signature Bank. The Fed and FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) acted fast to guarantee all deposits to stop what is now called “Twitter Deposit Runs” against banks. In Switzerland, Credit Suisse was taken over by UBS on 19 March, after the bank lost nearly US$ 75 billion worth of deposits in three months. Swiss financial credibility was hurt when Credit Suisse AT1 (Tier One bonds) bond-holders became outraged that they should suffer write-downs ahead of equity holders.



Although prompt action by the Fed and Suisse financial authorities averted global contagion and restored calm to financial markets, the Fed hiked interest rates four times in 2023 to 5.25-5.5% to tackle inflation. This month, gold prices touched a record high of US$2,100 per ounce, signalling anticipated inflation abatement, but escalated geopolitical tensions.




In technology, 2023 marked the seismic arrival of generative artificial intelligence (AI), through the public launch of ChatGPT in November 2022. Commercialized AI is considered the next big thing after the internet, sparking off a US tech stock rally, led by the Magnificent Seven companies in AI-related software and hardware. The rally averted a year of portfolio losses in financial markets hurt by interest rate hikes.

In trade, the latest UNCTAD Global Trade Update found that global trade will shrink by 5% to US$ 30.7 trillion in 2023, with trade in goods declining by nearly US$2 trillion, whereas trade in services would expand by US$500 billion. The outlook for 2024 is pessimistic because trade issues are now geopolitical, rather than purely market-driven. Global supply chains are either decoupling or de-risking to avoid possible sanctions which have been imposed for geopolitical reasons.




Geopolitics dominated headlines in 2023, as diplomacy played second fiddle to the militarization or weaponization of everything.

The biggest risk faced by businesses today is national security risk, in case companies or financial institutions are caught in geopolitical tit-for-tat arising from binary differences in values. Where national security is concerned, the business must bear all the costs of supply chain restructuring with no questions asked, or face possible existential shutdowns.

War broke out in Gaza/Israel In October with a scale of civilian slaughter more horrific and intense than the Ukraine war, which began in February 2022. The latest war count to June 2023 by The Armed Conflict Survey 2023 (1 May 2022–30 June 2023), showed global fatalities and events increasing horrendously by 14% and 28% respectively.



The authoritative Stockholm International Peace and Research Institute (SIPRI) reported that 56 countries were involved in armed conflict in 2022, 5 more than in 2021. Three (Ukraine, Myanmar and Nigeria) involved 10,000 or more estimated deaths, with 16 cases involving 1000–9999 deaths. Expect more conflicts when natural disasters hurt food, water and energy supplies.




As 100,000 or so delegates leave the United Arab Emirates at the end of the COP28 this month, the UN painted an upbeat tone that the Conference marked the “beginning of the end” of the fossil-fuel era.  Scientists confirm that we have already passed the point of being able to limit carbon emissions for the average global temperature to remain below 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.   Most studies show that if most governments fail to meet their current commitments to NetZero, the planet will be struggling with temperatures above 2 degrees Celsius, meaning more natural disasters, rising seas and/or migration/conflicts.  Every three weeks, the US has experienced at least one natural disaster costing more than $1 billion in damages.  

As one cynic said, natural disasters are where the rich just pay in money, but the poor pay in their lives.

Putting all these mega-trend micro-disasters together suggests that a mega-system disaster may be on the cards. Historically, these seismic-scale disturbances are settled through a massive recession, like the 1930s Great Depression, or wars, which wipe out debt and make everyone poorer.

So far, the world has neglected to address these looming issues by either denying or postponement - printing more money and incurring more debt. Painkillers do not fix structural imbalances.

As my favourite poet TS Eliot said, the world ends not with a bang, but with a whimper. The world is in permacrises, with no one fully in charge. Democratic governance is in flux when no one can agree on the problems, let alone the solutions.

2024 will see some decisive but messy elections, especially in the US where both Presidential candidates may either be impeached or convicted by then. This cannot auger well for everyone, because 2023 marks the turning point when the US lost the respect of the Global South over its catastrophic handling of Ukraine and Gaza, both of which will be fought to the last Ukrainian or Palestinian. The morality of allowing other people to fight and die for one’s benefit shows not hypocrisy but hegemonic-scale cowardice.

The bottom line is that there is no shortage of technology or money to deal with the global existential threats of climate change and social imbalances. We cannot align policy intent (what politicians say they will do) with the reality that current policies are not delivering.

If man-made or natural calamities are looming, do we mitigate or adapt? On a single planet, we can run but not hide. So each of us must decide to do what we can, rather than relying on politicians to fix themselves, let alone our problems.

There is a wise saying about Christmas charity: give with warm hands. Do that now, or we will be giving with boiled hands or none at all.

Best wishes for 2024.

Andrew Sheng, Asia News Network