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Showing posts with label World Economic Outlook. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World Economic Outlook. Show all posts

Wednesday 18 October 2023

IMF sees China remains biggest contributor driving global growth of economy

 

Robot arms make automobiles in a factory in Qingdao, East China's Shandong province on Dec 20, 2022. [Photo/Xinhua]

Country to remain biggest contributor to global growth 

Economic engine: Cargo ships at Qingdao port in China. — AFP

China will likely remain the biggest contributor to global growth this year and next despite recent economic headwinds from the real estate sector, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday.

Steven Barnett, senior resident representative of the IMF in China, said although the fund has revised down its GDP growth forecast for China, the country is expected to contribute roughly one-third of global growth this year and next.

According to the IMF's World Economic Outlook in October, global economic output is forecast to expand by 3 percent this year, to which China is expected to contribute 0.9 percentage point, Barnett said.


He made the remarks at a launch of the publication in Beijing on Friday. The event was organized by the IMF Resident Representative Office in China and the International Monetary Institute at the Renmin University of China.

By comparison, the United States is forecast to contribute 0.3 percentage point while India's contribution might be 0.5 percentage point, Barnett told China Daily on the sidelines of the event.

In 2024, China is forecast to contribute 0.8 percentage point of the 2.9 percent global growth, just under one-third and still higher than 0.2 percentage point of the US and 0.5 percentage point of India, he said.

The WEO, published on Tuesday, has lowered the 2023 economic growth forecast for China to 5 percent from 5.2 percent, citing the pressures brought by the weakness in the real estate sector.

According to Zou Lan, head of the People's Bank of China's monetary policy department, the country's real estate market has recently seen positive changes, with reviving housing market transaction activity in key cities and marginal improvements in home sales and market expectations.

In terms of credit, real estate development loans and personal mortgages issued by major banks increased by more than 100 billion yuan ($13.68 billion) in September compared with August, Zou said at a news conference on Friday.

Zou also said the central bank's efforts to reduce the interest burden of existing mortgages have made rapid progress as 49.73 million in mortgages — representing 98.5 percent of the mortgages eligible for interest rate reduction and worth 21.7 trillion yuan in total — had interest rates reduced during the week starting Sept 25.

The weighted average interest rate of those mortgages decreased by 0.73 percentage point on average to a weighted average of 4.27 percent, Zou said, adding the alleviated interest rate burden will help boost investment and consumption.

While China faces real estate headwinds, it has the scope to boost the economy by reorienting fiscal stimulus to consumer spending and implementing further monetary accommodation given the lack of inflationary pressure, Barnett said.

To boost medium-term growth, it is critical for China to accelerate structural reforms, without which China's growth could slow to 3.4 percent in 2028, resulting in a slightly lower contribution to global growth of less than a quarter, Barnett said.

Ruan Jianhong, a PBOC spokeswoman, said China's central bank will continue to implement a sound monetary policy in a targeted and effective manner, aiming for overall and lasting improvements in economic performance.

Ruan said the country's macroeconomic leverage ratio came in at 291 percent for the second quarter of the year, up 9.4 percentage points compared with the end of last year and up 1.5 percentage points from the end of the first quarter.

Adding to signs that China's economic recovery is gaining momentum, financing activity picked up in September as the increment in aggregate social financing — the total amount of financing to the real economy — amounted to 4.12 trillion yuan, up by 563.8 billion yuan from a year earlier, the PBOC said on Friday.

The amount was also up from 3.12 trillion yuan in August and beat the market expectations of about 3.7 trillion yuan.


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Sunday 22 April 2012

Europe: 'Dark clouds on the horizon'

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Michael Klein, is the William L. Clayton Professor of International Economic Affairs at the Fletcher School, Tufts University, and a nonresident Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution

This weekend's meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are overshadowed by "dark clouds on the horizon" that threaten the "light recovery blowing in a spring wind," according to Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the IMF.

The main source of the dark clouds is Europe, where recovery remains weak.

More than three years into the crisis, policy options in Europe are limited; fiscal stimulus is out of reach for many countries, and recent efforts by the European Central Bank provided only a temporary respite. In this environment, strong and sustained recovery depends upon rebalancing within Europe, whereby countries' trade imbalances are reduced.

But rebalancing is a two-sided affair. We have all heard the ongoing calls for some European countries to rebalance deficits through painful austerity measures.

 
These calls need to be balanced with demands that countries with surpluses also move to rebalance.

In particular, Germany must take advantage of its scope for fiscal expansion to bolster European recovery and to forestall its own slippage towards an economic slowdown.

There are those who argue that the German surplus reflects its productivity growth and labor market reform. These people argue that Germany could only rebalance by stifling its own economic dynamism.
There are three responses to this argument:

Shared rewards: Reforms have made labor markets more flexible in Germany. Innovative policies, such as the Kurzbeit, the short-time working policy, limited the unemployment effects of the crisis.

German unemployment briefly peaked at 8% in July 2009 while the U.S. unempoloyment rate spiked to 10% in October of that year. Despite the soft landing, workers have not fully shared in the benefits of the recovery, and trade unions have been demanding higher wages.

Higher wages for workers would raise their demand for consumer goods, including the products from other euro-area nations.

Shared consequences: German exporters, and German producers of import-competing goods, have benefited from the weak euro.

Since 2008, the German real exchange rate has depreciated by almost 9%, even while its economy recovered relatively strongly from the crisis and its economy was strongly in surplus.

In contrast, over this same period the Swiss franc appreciated 16% -- estimates suggest that had the German real exchange rate tracked the Swiss real exchange rates, German export growth would have been cut in half.

Another major surplus country, China, saw an appreciation of its real exchange rate by more than 10% over this period.

If Germany had a free-floating currency of its own, rather than one whose value is determined by the fate of the full set of euro members, it would have seen an appreciation that would have brought down its current surplus.

Shared experiences: Another surplus country offers a striking recent example of rebalancing: China. In 2007, China's surplus exceeded 10% of its GDP.

The IMF projects that the debt to GDP ratio will fall to 2.3% in 2012, well below the 6.3% forecast published in its World Economic Outlook last year. In contrast, the most recent IMF forecast of the 2012 German debt to GDP ratio, of 5.2%, exceeds last year's forecast of 4.6%.

As a member of the euro area, Germany will not see the natural forces of a currency revaluation bring about a reduction in its current surplus.

But the government has the tools available to rebalance, and foster growth both domestically and more widely in Europe, through a stimulative fiscal expansion.

 
There are other tools available as well, such as policies to promote female labor force participation (which is low relative to other industrial countries) and liberalizing retailing (which could help promote domestic demand), to raise growth and to widen its benefits among its citizens.

Rebalancing needs to occur for both deficit and surplus countries to support and sustain growth during these challenging times.


@CNNMoneyMarketsApril 21, 2012: 10:50 AM ET

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