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Sunday, 1 March 2020

The games Malay politicians play in Malaysia

Calmer days: In this May 9,2018, photo, Dr Mahathir with Muhyiddin speaking to reporters after the results of GE14 was announced. Yesterday, the King declared Muhyiddin as the Prime Minister. – AP

“WATCH for the game within the game, ” a tycoon who bankrolls political parties told me over coffee in Kuala Lumpur on Monday.

On that afternoon, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad shockingly announced that he quit as the Prime Minister.

The tycoon and I were discussing the botched Sunday game plan to install a Perikatan Nasional (or is it Pakatan Nasional?) government.

Something awry had happened which went against the playbook of the Perikatan Nasional plotters.

Was it because the rule of the game was changed?

Was it that the politicians had played each other out?

Was there a game within a game?

In this fast-paced political game, the entire truth has not surfaced, but soon we’ll know.

Tuesday and Wednesday’s process of the King meeting 220 MPs (except for Dr Mahathir and Padang Regas MP Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz who was overseas) individually looked like a done deal. Pakatan Harapan, Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (which quit PH on Monday), sacked PKR deputy president Datuk Seri Azmin Ali and his 10 MPs, and other minor parties had endorsed Dr Mahathir.

Then came the game within the game.

On Tuesday, after their MPs met the King individually, PKR, DAP and Amanah (which are in Pakatan Harapan) announced that it had backed PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

From a quick MPs calculation, PH with 92 MPs minus Barisan Nasional/PAS/PBRS with about 60 MPs (who not all are voting according to party line) which voted for bubar (Parliament dissolved), it was clear that Dr Mahathir had lost the vote count.

Many thought that the master of the game, Dr Mahathir, kena game (had been played).

On Thursday, Dr Mahathir – without waiting for the King to reveal the outcome of his majesty’s face to face meeting with individual MPs – declared there was no prime minister candidate with a clear majority. The interim Prime Minister announced there would be a special Parliament sitting on March 2 to determine who will be the next prime minister.

However, on Friday, the Parliament Speaker Tan Sri Mohd Ariff Yusof announced that there would not be a special Parliament sitting to determine who will be prime minister.

On that day, Yang di-Pertuan Agong Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri’ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah decided to give party leaders who have MPs in the Dewan Rakyat the opportunity to nominate a prime minister.

The frontrunners to be our next PM were Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and PKR president Anwar. Seemingly, Dr Mahathir was out of the game.

The fight was shaping up to be Perikatan Nasional (a Muslim and Bumiputera majority government) versus Pakatan Harapan (a non-Muslim majority government).

From the WhatsApp messages I could barely have time to monitor, the rakyat choice depended on who they hated the most.

Some who hated DAP supported the Perikatan Nasional government and those who hated Umno and PAS preferred the Pakatan Harapan government.

Grassroots politicians were getting emotional. Some were hysterical that they have to swallow the hate words they uttered against their political enemies as they might be in the same government.

Last night, a retired veteran journalist WhatsApp-ed me: “Instead of the tik-tok of the horse race and the numbers, why isn’t anyone reporting what this is all about: a battle for Malaysia’s future and what kind of country we want to be?

“A Malaysia focused on race and religion, or a Malaysia focused on building a better tomorrow in the Digital Age?”

I agree with him.

But the game is played fast and furious that we’re trying our best to keep pace with it.

Based on a quick calculation of MPs from political parties, in the numbers game, Muhyiddin had more than Anwar.

Bersatu 36 MPs (from 26 overnight it increased by 10 MPs with Azmin and gang), Umno 39 MPs, PAS 18 MPs, Gabungan Parti Sarawak 18 MPs and minor parties, Muhyiddin won.

Whereas Anwar only had his Pakatan Harapan ally (PKR 39 MPs, DAP 42 MPs and Amanah 11 MPs).

Game over for Anwar?

No. On Friday night, it became clear that the party leaders had no control of their MPs who had different allegiance. Karma had struck Bersatu – it was civil war between Team Mahathir and Team Muhyiddin.

Some sleeper MPs were awakened to go against their party leader.

Some MPs are honourable.

Some are for sale.

Not surprising as this is the games politicians play.

The shocker was yesterday. Dr Mahathir was back in the game.

The interim Prime Minister had thrown his name in the Game of Thrones. He was now the game-changer.

Some of those who backstabbed him when they met the King on Tuesday and Wednesday were now backing him.

Yesterday, the situation was very fluid. Too many games played and play outs.

I would have preferred a bubar endgame.

Let the rakyat be the kingmakers instead of MPs.

The endgame turn out to be the king declaring Muhyiddin as Prime Minister.

To the winners of the Game of Thrones, I wish them: GGWP (Good Game, Well Played).

 Philip Golingai
by Philip Golingai



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Covid-19 reaches the West


https://youtu.be/F_Jq7ItdHtA

Tourists wearing protective masks walks by the Duomo in central Milan on February 27,2020 amid fears over the spread of the novel Coronavirus. - The number of COVID-19 infections in Italy, the hardest hit country in Europe, hits the 400 mark late on February 26, with 12 deaths. (Photo by Miguel MEDINA/ AFP)

But keep cool, negative volatility will likely be followed by positive volatility


The coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak has officially reached Western shores.

Since last week, the virus has spread to Europe, Brazil and the Middle East.

New cases have emerged across Europe.

There have been more than 81,000 people infected with nearly 3,000 deaths so far.

Just the previous Wednesday on Feb 19, stocks in the US were complacently at record highs, never mind that Asian markets were roiling and taking huge hits, thanks to the coronavirus that first took roots in Wuhan, China.

Asia has been battling this disease since January. Markets have been volatile but have since recovered as the number of infections have reduced and governments have been diligent at handling the disease.

It is like the domino effect, with the same reactions, panic and emotions that happened throughout Asia now migrating to the West.

It is almost deja-vu, seeing the fear and market reaction, no doubt the impact to the Dow and S&P 500 has a significantly larger impact.

The Covid-19’s largest impact is the fear it has transmitted with rapid speed.

In the US, stocks fell for a sixth straight day on Thursday, with the S&P 500 price index falling 4.4% and bringing this pullback officially into correction territory. On a six-day basis, the Dow Jones was down 13.4% at 25,766.64.

This plummet followed California governor Gavin Newsom’s revealing on Thursday that the state was monitoring 8,400 people for potential Covid-19 infections.

Adding to the bleak outlook, Goldman Sachs slashed its profit outlook and warned the outbreak could cost Donald Trump his reelection in November.

The MSCI all-country global index has dropped more than 7% over this six-day period. Considering stocks were at record highs the previous Wednesday, this is very harsh and painful.

Why, Tesla was all the hype earlier in February. It was US$901 on Feb 21, and new higher target prices were being touted by analysts, nevermind that the stock still didn’t have a price to earnings ratio.

In the last five days, Tesla’s share price had tumbled more than US$200 or 32.7% as of Thursday to close at US$679.

Don’t panic

For the average investor, panic has likely set in.

Whose confidence level would not be shaken with a 12% decline in the S&P 500 in six trading days?

Now talk of a 20% decline is starting to emerge.

Meanwhile the 10-year US treasury yield dropped below 1.3%, remaining in record-low territory.

The downward spiral in oil also continued with WTI crude toppling 2.71% to trade at US$47.41 per barrel on Thursday. Brent oil hovered at the US$51.42 level. So just barely two months into 2020, it is Covid-19 which has been responsible for crushing markets and dismantling profits across the globe.

Many have already slashed market forecasts for the year.

In the past two market stories featured on StarBizweek, readers would know that Fisher MarketMinder thinks that fears over the virus’ market impact are overdone. It thinks that this is part of a longer-running pattern prevalent throughout this bull market.

“The stock market will do what it does – rise and fall.

“If you’ve got a plan based on your risk tolerance and investment horizon, don’t let fear make you swerve in the wrong direction and lose traction.

“Panic is never a good investment strategy, ” says Fisher MarketMinder.

It adds that Covid-19 is grabbing attention because it is new and somewhat novel, but that doesn’t mean its economic effects far outweigh more familiar diseases.

The Center for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that there were 34,200 deaths in the United States from influenza during the 2018-2019 flu season.

For infections of Covid-19 outside of China, the mortality appears very low.

Furthermore, the people who are dying tend to be the old and immuno-suppressed or otherwise sick.

“Supply chain disruptions as officials work to contain the outbreak probably dent growth temporarily, but markets are efficient and likely pricing in these expectations as companies issue statements.

“Short-term volatility could linger, but patience should pay off, in our view, ” it adds.

As legendary investor Ben Graham once said, stocks are a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term.

“Sentiment wins in the short term, but fundamentals matter most over more meaningful stretches.

“The ‘why’ and ‘how much’ behind sentiment swings strike us far less important.

“The emotional swing itself is what matters.

“Market fundamentals likely didn’t change on a dime seven days ago, ” says Fisher MarketMinder.

Thursday’s drop simply put US stocks back at mid-October levels.

Furthermore, the world hasn’t fundamentally changed.

While there is no way to know when this drop will end or how much further it will fall, no drop is permanent.

“Whether the rebound starts in days or weeks, whether it is fast or slow, if you have held on thus far, we think you ought to reap the good that comes with the bad.

“Corrections hurt your long-term returns only if you don’t participate in the rebounds that follow them.

“Selling may feel good at a time like this. But when you remove emotion from the equation, all it does is transform a market decline into an actual portfolio loss, ” says Fisher MarketMinder.

Another investor who is cheering is one of the smartest investors in the world, Warren Buffett, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

He says the stock market rout we’re witnessing today is “good for us.”

“We’re a net buyer of stocks over time, ” he says on CNBC.

“Most people are savers, they should want the market to go down.

“They should want to buy at a lower price.”

Buffett’s comments came as Dow futures were down by about 800 points or 3% on Monday as stocks around the world plunged as the Covid-19 outbreak escalated.

Regarding the coronavirus specifically, Buffett made clear that he is “not a specialist.” And he warns that “a very significant percentage of our businesses one way are affected.”

However, he reiterates that investors should be more focused on the long term, not the short term.

“If you’re buying a business, and that’s what stocks are... you’re gonna own it for 10 or 20 years, ” he says.

“The real question is has the 10-year or 20-year outlook for American businesses changed in the last 24 hours or 48 hours?” the legendary investor asks.

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Friday, 28 February 2020

Malaysia's economic stimulus package of RM20bil to mitigate Covid-19 impact

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/02/28/gdp-target-within-reach?jwsource=cl

Minimum EPF contribution by employees to be reduced by 4% from 11% to 7%, with effect from Apr 1 to Dec 31, 2020. This will potentially unlock up to RM10 billion worth of private consumption. Malaysian workers have the option to opt out from the scheme and maintain their contribution rate
    KUALA LUMPUR: Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad had on Thursday unveiled the RM20bil stimulus package to offset the fallout from the Covid-19 coronavirus.

    Below are the highlights:

  • Based on three strategies: counter Covid-19 impact, boost people-based growth, encourage quality investments 

  • • Bank Simpanan Nasional provides RM200mil micro credit at 4% interest rate

  • • MAHB to cut rental for tenants, landing charges and parking fees at airports

  • • Postponement of income tax monthly payment for tourism-related companies

  • • Bank Negara provides RM2bil guaranteed financial aid for SMES at 3.75% interest rate

  • • All banks required to reduce monetary burden in the form of postponement of payments or rescheduling of loans

  • • Temporary six months discount of as much as 15% for electricity bills for hotels, tourism agencies, airlines, and shopping centres

  • • Hotels to get service tax breaks from next month to august

  • • Economic growth for 2020 expected to be between 3.2% and 4.2%

  • • Minimum EPF contribution by employees to be reduced from 11% to 7%, with effect from april 1 to dec 31. This could unlock up to RM10bil worth of private consumption. Malaysian contributors have the choice to opt out from the scheme and maintain their contribution rate

  • • A payment of RM200 to all bantuan Sara Hidup (BSH) recipients scheduled for May will be brought forward to March. an additional RM100 will be paid into the bank accounts of all BSH recipients in May. Subsequently, an additional rM50 will be channelled in the form of e-tunai

  • • As a result of the stimulus package, fiscal deficit estimated to increase to 3.4% of GDP from targeted 3.2%

  • • Grants of RM1,000 to RM10,000 for entrepreneurs to promote the sale of their products on e-commerce platforms

  • • Securities Commission and bursa Malaysia will waive listing fees for one year, for companies seeking listing on Leading entrepreneur accelerator Platform (LEAP) or Access, Certainty, Efficiency (ACE) markets, as well as companies with market capitalisation of less than RM500mil seeking listing on the main market

  • • Import duty and sales tax exemption on importation or local purchase of machinery and equipment used in port operations for three years commencing april 1

  • • Enough source of money for now, no issuance of bonds needed

  • • Stimulus package to be funded by RM2 trillion savings from bank Negara, Tabung Haji, EPF

  • • Bureaucratic procedures will be expedited to disburse stimulus

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Wednesday, 26 February 2020

A plague on both your coalitions!


The euphoria among Malaysians following the May 2018 polls has now turned to despair and disgust after the political machinations that are afoot. On March 7, 2016, I warned the “Save Malaysia” campaign that putting Mahathir as the head of the supposedly “Reform Movement” was bare-faced opportunism.

Some have said it was like putting the fox in the hen house! The erstwhile “progressives” scoffed at my “idealism” using trite clichés including: “there are no permanent enemies in politics…”

While those in the Anwar Ibrahim/DAP camp are licking their wounds, what is transpiring now borders on extreme opportunism that former “progressives” could be part of a coalition with Umno and led by the same Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who I pointed out in 2016 had not shown a shred of remorse for his authoritarian rule from 1981 to 2003.

After the record of the last two years of PH government, such politicians will be laughed out of hand if they even try to pretend to have a reform agenda.

I warned in 2016 that Mahathir’s main objective was to get rid of Najib and to ensure that his own economic and political agenda was implemented. This he has successfully done and will pursue even more firmly now he can dispense with all the pretence of reform promises made in GE14.

Opportunism in its crudest form can be seen when politicians target an individual (namely, Najib Razak) rather than the political regime and political economic system that oppresses, divides and exploits the people. As is now revealed to all, Mahathir’s “Save Malaysia” campaign in GE14 was mainly aimed at expelling Najib while maintaining the same racist and exploitative rule.

Azmin and his crew can make all the politically correct noises about “Reformasi” but they have lost credibility through the last two years of bickering and Azmin Ali’s sex video file is now in the hands of Machiavelli, who now has him by the metaphorical balls.

Both factions in PKR have failed to show the people what they are fighting about and they have not even pretended to champion any concrete reforms except to pay lip service to “Reformasi”. That is why the people have had enough of their interminable bickering.

PH was already morphing into BN 2.0

As events have unfolded, PH has become more and more like BN 2.0 especially with the assimilation of Umno into PPBM. Even Anwar was considering accepting the former BN minister Salleh Said Keruak into his party.

The most revealing and distressing initiative of all was the so-called “Malay Dignity Congress” with its racist resolutions and which the prime minister patronised and the continuation of the New Economic Policy in the new “Shared Prosperity Vision”.

And as this short rule has ambled along, it has failed to meet manifesto promises and voter expectations in numerous ways. We have witnessed a number of the flip flops over the PH promise to abolish toxic institutions and laws, such as the Security Offences (Special Measures) Act 2012 (Sosma) and other detention-without-trial laws in the country.

Nor do their promises focus on the most urgent and comprehensive reforms that civil society has long argued are of high priority. On top of all that, we have seen a disturbing trend of autocratic decision making and policies symptomatic of the old Mahathir 1.0 era.

Malaysian politics now means never having to keep election promises

While the PH manifesto prohibits the PM from also taking on the Finance portfolio, Mahathir has in the first 100 days succeeded in taking over the choicest companies, namely Khazanah, PNB and Petronas under his Prime Minister’s Office. It is the return to the old Mahathirist autocracy.

Was the Cabinet consulted on the decision to start Proton 2, privatise Khazanah, Malaysia Incorporated and the revival of the failed F1 circuit?

The appointments of Mahathir and economic affairs minister Mohd Azmin Ali to the board of Khazanah Nasional Berhad also go against the PH manifesto promise of keeping politicians out of publicly-funded investments since it leads to poor accountability.

Only by insisting that boards be comprised of professionals and on rigorous parliamentary checks and balances for bodies such as Khazanah can we ensure a high level of transparency and accountability.

The excuse of the government debt to delay local government elections, which have been suspended in our country since 1965 is not acceptable. It is a simple matter of abolishing a provision under the Local Government Act 1976 and reviving the Local Government Election Act in order to introduce local government elections.

It is equally absurd to tell Malaysian Independent Chinese Secondary School graduates that their Unified Examination Certificate (UEC) certificate can only be recognised in five years’ time. This is a serious breach of promise in the PH GE14 manifesto since more than 80% of Chinese voters voted for PH because of this promised reform.

Time to build a progressive Third Force

Reforms that do not challenge the neoliberal economic policies that were set in fast motion by Mahathir in the early Eighties are not serious reforms. Income disparities will continue to widen while the environment, indigenous and working people will continue to bear the burden of so-called development.

Najib merely made more extreme the structures created by Mahathir to entrench the powers of the Executive, emasculate the democratic institutions and provide the means for private enrichment of the elite in this country.

Racist and racial discriminatory policies were also entrenched by Mahathir in the early 1980s and further manipulated by Najib.

In hindsight, perhaps we had to go through the betrayal of the last two years of PH rule, the arrogant disregard for the promised reforms and the interminable bickering between the parties in the PH coalition. If we had not gone through this process, the people would not have experienced the opportunism and hollow reforms mouthed by these politicians all these years.

More than ten years ago, I raised the urgent need for a Third Force in Malaysian politics when it was clear that the PH “profits before people” and race/religion agenda was no different from that of BN’s. I said that we needed a Third Force if we are not to be disappointed with the return to BN rule in GE15 again. I was wrong – Mahathir didn’t need another general election, did he?

It is time for all who have hoped for real reforms in Malaysia to build a “Third Progressive Force” for a truly just, democratic and sustainable future that BN and PH have failed to provide. In the light of the worst treachery in Malaysian politics we have yet seen, professed progressive politicians should leave both coalitions to help build the progressive Third Force.

And if there are enough “good men and women” among them, they might actually succeed in scuppering Machiavelli’s plan by denying him the number he needs for a majority in the House … but that is just wishful thinking.

Kua Kia Soong is the adviser to Suaram.

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Interim premier Dr Mahathir back at work in Perdana Putra; fight cronyvirus?

 

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Tuesday, 25 February 2020

Interim premier Dr Mahathir back at work in Perdana Putra; fight cronyvirus?


PUTRAJAYA: Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad has returned to his office at Perdana Putra amidst the political storm raging over the last two days.

The vehicle ferrying him was seen approaching the protocol gate here at 9.29am on Tuesday (Feb 25).

This comes a day after the 94-year-old Dr Mahathir resigned as Prime Minister, when the Yang di-Pertuan Agong accepted his resignation.

However, the King has consented for Dr Mahathir to continue running the country as interim Prime Minister until a new premier has been appointed and a new Cabinet formed.

Dr Mahathir is the only one from the Pakatan Harapan administration who is left after the Yang di-Pertuan Agong cancelled the appointments of all Cabinet members.

Aside from ministers, the duties of other members the administration including the deputy prime minister, deputy ministers and political secretaries ceased, effective Feb 24.

It is learnt that ministers have packed their belongings and left with them on Monday (Feb 24) night, following the announcement that the King had accepted Dr Mahathir's resignation.

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A plague on both your coalitions!


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