China, Brazil to trade in local currencies, dump US dollar !

DUMPING U.S. Bonds for Gold! China Openly Fights the Dollar, PROMOTING the Oil-Yuan.

China is accelerating its de-dollarization efforts in three key areas: local currency settlement, petrodollars, and converting U.S. debt into gold. Additionally, the Abuse Of The Dollar's Monetary Status and the Federal Reserve's irresponsible monetary policies have prompted several countries worldwide to switch from the dollar to other currencies. This is one reason why several landmark de-dollarization announcements have emerged in recent weeks. 

Among these announcements, Brazil has entered into an agreement with China whereby the two countries can now settle trades using either the Yuan or the real, excluding the dollar. China and France have also completed their first LNG trade in Yuan, ending European countries' dependence on petrodollars. Meanwhile, at a meeting in Indonesia, ASEAN finance ministers and central bank governors prioritized de-dollarization and chose to use their national currencies for cross-border payment settlements. Indonesia suggested abandoning the use of a dollar-dominated payment system and instead using credit cards issued by local banks to enhance the independence and security of financial transactions and prevent the adverse effects of instrumentalizing the dollar. Malaysia, which has abundant oil reserves, even proposed a pan-Asian gold-backed currency to replace the U.S. dollar among Southeast Asia, as gold is more stable compared to the U.S. dollar.

Gaining recognition: A person holds Chinese yuan banknotes. More economies are willing to use the yuan in clearing and payments, which is a significant step for the Chinese currency to internationalise. — Reuters

 Dump Your USD!!

 

 

Why The World Is Dumping The American Dollar

 Why the World Is Dumping the American Dollar | Vantage with Palki Sharma. China and Brazil have struck a deal to trade in their local currencies instead of the US dollar. They joined a long list of countries including Saudi Arabia, Kenya and India. Why is the world attempting to de-dollarise? Palki Sharma decodes

 

 

HAINAN: The Chinese yuan is speeding up in expanding its global use, a trend that will help build a more resilient international monetary system, one that is less dependent on the US dollar and more conducive to trade growth, experts say.

They commented after China and Brazil – two major emerging economies and BRICS members – reportedly reached a deal to trade in their own currencies, ditching the US dollar as an intermediary.

The deal will enable China and Brazil to conduct their massive trade and financial transactions directly, exchanging the yuan for reais and vice versa, instead of going through the dollar, Agence France-Presse reported last Wednesday, citing the Brazilian government. The report comes amid the rising global use of the yuan.

China’s first cross-border yuan-settled liquefied natural gas transaction was completed last Tuesday, after the Export-Import Bank of China achieved the first yuan loan cooperation with the Saudi National Bank, the largest bank in Saudi Arabia, earlier this month.

Zhu Min, vice-chairman of the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges, said the trend is underway that more economies are willing to use the yuan in clearing and payments, which is a “significant step” for the Chinese currency to internationalise and reflects the international community’s growing trust in it.

The financial sanctions adopted by the United States since the start of the Ukraine crisis have triggered a “crisis of confidence” for the dollar to some extent, boosting the global use of other currencies, including the yuan, Zhu said on the sidelines of the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference.

Zhou Maohua, a macroeconomic analyst at China Everbright Bank, said the use of local currencies in bilateral trade will be a win-win situation for China and Brazil, reducing the risk of exchange rate fluctuations facing foreign trade companies, and thus boosting trade growth.

In February, China and Brazil signed a memorandum of understanding on setting up yuan-clearing arrangements in Brazil, which is deemed by experts as a necessary infrastructure for the two economies to trade in local currencies.

The arrangements will help the two countries’ enterprises and financial institutions use the yuan for cross-border trade, and facilitate bilateral trade and investment, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said.

Financial infrastructure associated with the internationalisation of the yuan should be further improved, said Pan Gongsheng, vice-governor of the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, in early March.

The nation will further improve its trading and settlement system for cross-border investment and financing using the currency, Pan added.

“I think yuan internationalisation will likely accelerate,” said Hong Hao, chief economist at GROW Investment Group, a China-based global asset management company, underlining that the recent developments indicate that an alternative monetary system outside the US dollar hegemony is being developed. — China Daily/ANN 

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 China sees an upsurge of diplomatic visits

China sees an upsurge of diplomatic visits

China has recently seen an upsurge of visits by political dignitaries of multiple countries to China. See the infographic for more.

 

 

China Xinhua News

@XHNews

China's hyperspectral satellite for Earth observation is now operational after completing in-orbit tests, offering advanced capabilities that combine spectra with images to detect various ground objects and specific atmospheric components http://xhtxs.cn/Gtu

 

 

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When Will the U.S. Dollar Collapse?

GT investigates: Seeking for virus origin

https://youtu.be/X0dzqLuQPrU 

 Frequent outbreaks triggered by imported frozen products; reports suggesting traces of coronavirus found elsewhere earlier than Wuhan… so is COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan also result of imported cold-chain products? Check GT special investigative report… 

 

GT investigates: Could cold-chain imports have sparked Wuhan early COVID-19 outbreak?

 

Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera reported in November that a new coronavirus was circulating in Italy in September 2019, a study by the National Cancer Institute (INT) of the Italian city of Milan shows, indicating that the virus may have existed in Italy months before it was first detected in China.

The Italian researchers’ findings, published by the INT’s scientific magazine Tumori Journal, show 11.6 percent of 959 blood samples from healthy volunteers enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 had developed coronavirus antibodies well before February.

Peter Forster, a geneticist from Cambridge, also told the Global Times that he is not surprised that there might be cases earlier than China.

Foster suggests it is useful to think of three stages in the origins of the coronavirus: when and where did it cross the species barrier from bats to humans and when and where did it start spreading successfully among humans. “My dating suggests sometime between September and December 2019,” said the virologist, proposing finally to look at when the globally dominant infectious coronavirus subtype arose.

“Everyone agrees it was prominent in Northern Italy in February 2020. Some scientists said it came to Italy from China, but I am not so sure,” he said.

Evidence of both epidemiology and virology are needed to find out where the virus comes from, said the Beijing-based anonymous expert. If the pandemic originated from a certain place, there should be signs of an early outbreak. It is also possible that the virus already existed, but not seriously enough to cause an outbreak, he said, noting that there is only a small probability of the latter scenario, and no solid evidence to support it.

From a virology perspective, a full gene sequence of cases from that place should be obtained for observation and for determining when the virus was transmitted to this place via time and the virus’ variation point, said the expert.

“If we have doubts that the virus was originated from places other than Wuhan, we can compare its sequencing with the virus that was found in Wuhan. [We should] compare their homology and variability, to see if the virus found in other places is in its early stage, or it is evolved,” he said.

There are reports from several countries that early blood samples tested positive for the virus, but they can provide no evidence of the nucleic sequence, so the possibility of a false negative cannot be ruled out, said the anonymous expert.

He believes that if antibodies can be found in the blood serum, then the virus can also be found there. Even if the virus is not infectious anymore, it is easily detected, as its nucleic acid is protected by the coat of the virus and it is very stable and sensitive.

 

The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, Central China's Hubei Province on November 22. Photo: Fan Lingzhi/GT 

 

International cooperation urged

Although those virologists have pictured a clear route map to trace the origin of the virus, the real path to finding the origin is laden with difficulties.

The anonymous expert said that in terms of tracing the virus origin, the momentum for international scientists to cooperate has retrogressed compared with the pre-COVID-19 period.

“Scientists are reluctant to become involved in politics, they are eyeing international cooperation. Yet researchers from all over the world are acting with caution, avoiding troubles, and refusing casual communication. I don’t think it’s an ideal atmosphere for cooperation.”

This has drawn attention from international bodies. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus urged countries on November 30 not to politicize the hunt for the origins of the new coronavirus, saying that would only create barriers to learning the truth.

When talking to Tedros in September, director of China's National Health Commission Ma Xiaowei vowed to enhance cooperation with the WHO on virus prevention, origin tracing and vaccine development. China is pushing forward the work on the virus origin tracing, and is willing to strengthen cooperation and communication with the WHO, Ma said.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said on November 24 that while tracing the origin domestically, China has been earnestly implementing WHA resolutions.

"We are the first to invite WHO experts in for origin-tracing cooperation." Zhao said, adding that "We hope all relevant countries will adopt a positive attitude and cooperate with WHO like China does, making contributions to global origin-tracing and anti-epidemic cooperation."

“International communication on the virus origin should be frequent and open for all. But some countries weighed in and complicated the issue,” said Yang, who noted that the world has achieved great progress in fighting COVID-19 in the past year, including treatment of the disease and vaccine R&D.

Tracing the virus origin should not be a battle against each other; instead, an information, data sharing mechanism is helpful to bring the virus under control, Yang said.

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Covid-19 reaches the West

https://youtu.be/F_Jq7ItdHtA

Tourists wearing protective masks walks by the Duomo in central Milan on February 27,2020 amid fears over the spread of the novel Coronavirus. - The number of COVID-19 infections in Italy, the hardest hit country in Europe, hits the 400 mark late on February 26, with 12 deaths. (Photo by Miguel MEDINA/ AFP)

But keep cool, negative volatility will likely be followed by positive volatility

The coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak has officially reached Western shores.

Since last week, the virus has spread to Europe, Brazil and the Middle East.

New cases have emerged across Europe.

There have been more than 81,000 people infected with nearly 3,000 deaths so far.

Just the previous Wednesday on Feb 19, stocks in the US were complacently at record highs, never mind that Asian markets were roiling and taking huge hits, thanks to the coronavirus that first took roots in Wuhan, China.

Asia has been battling this disease since January. Markets have been volatile but have since recovered as the number of infections have reduced and governments have been diligent at handling the disease.

It is like the domino effect, with the same reactions, panic and emotions that happened throughout Asia now migrating to the West.

It is almost deja-vu, seeing the fear and market reaction, no doubt the impact to the Dow and S&P 500 has a significantly larger impact.

The Covid-19’s largest impact is the fear it has transmitted with rapid speed.

In the US, stocks fell for a sixth straight day on Thursday, with the S&P 500 price index falling 4.4% and bringing this pullback officially into correction territory. On a six-day basis, the Dow Jones was down 13.4% at 25,766.64.

This plummet followed California governor Gavin Newsom’s revealing on Thursday that the state was monitoring 8,400 people for potential Covid-19 infections.

Adding to the bleak outlook, Goldman Sachs slashed its profit outlook and warned the outbreak could cost Donald Trump his reelection in November.

The MSCI all-country global index has dropped more than 7% over this six-day period. Considering stocks were at record highs the previous Wednesday, this is very harsh and painful.

Why, Tesla was all the hype earlier in February. It was US$901 on Feb 21, and new higher target prices were being touted by analysts, nevermind that the stock still didn’t have a price to earnings ratio.

In the last five days, Tesla’s share price had tumbled more than US$200 or 32.7% as of Thursday to close at US$679.

Don’t panic

For the average investor, panic has likely set in.

Whose confidence level would not be shaken with a 12% decline in the S&P 500 in six trading days?

Now talk of a 20% decline is starting to emerge.

Meanwhile the 10-year US treasury yield dropped below 1.3%, remaining in record-low territory.

The downward spiral in oil also continued with WTI crude toppling 2.71% to trade at US$47.41 per barrel on Thursday. Brent oil hovered at the US$51.42 level. So just barely two months into 2020, it is Covid-19 which has been responsible for crushing markets and dismantling profits across the globe.

Many have already slashed market forecasts for the year.

In the past two market stories featured on StarBizweek, readers would know that Fisher MarketMinder thinks that fears over the virus’ market impact are overdone. It thinks that this is part of a longer-running pattern prevalent throughout this bull market.

“The stock market will do what it does – rise and fall.

“If you’ve got a plan based on your risk tolerance and investment horizon, don’t let fear make you swerve in the wrong direction and lose traction.

“Panic is never a good investment strategy, ” says Fisher MarketMinder.

It adds that Covid-19 is grabbing attention because it is new and somewhat novel, but that doesn’t mean its economic effects far outweigh more familiar diseases.

The Center for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that there were 34,200 deaths in the United States from influenza during the 2018-2019 flu season.

For infections of Covid-19 outside of China, the mortality appears very low.

Furthermore, the people who are dying tend to be the old and immuno-suppressed or otherwise sick.

“Supply chain disruptions as officials work to contain the outbreak probably dent growth temporarily, but markets are efficient and likely pricing in these expectations as companies issue statements.

“Short-term volatility could linger, but patience should pay off, in our view, ” it adds.

As legendary investor Ben Graham once said, stocks are a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term.

“Sentiment wins in the short term, but fundamentals matter most over more meaningful stretches.

“The ‘why’ and ‘how much’ behind sentiment swings strike us far less important.

“The emotional swing itself is what matters.

“Market fundamentals likely didn’t change on a dime seven days ago, ” says Fisher MarketMinder.

Thursday’s drop simply put US stocks back at mid-October levels.

Furthermore, the world hasn’t fundamentally changed.

While there is no way to know when this drop will end or how much further it will fall, no drop is permanent.

“Whether the rebound starts in days or weeks, whether it is fast or slow, if you have held on thus far, we think you ought to reap the good that comes with the bad.

“Corrections hurt your long-term returns only if you don’t participate in the rebounds that follow them.

“Selling may feel good at a time like this. But when you remove emotion from the equation, all it does is transform a market decline into an actual portfolio loss, ” says Fisher MarketMinder.

Another investor who is cheering is one of the smartest investors in the world, Warren Buffett, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

He says the stock market rout we’re witnessing today is “good for us.”

“We’re a net buyer of stocks over time, ” he says on CNBC.

“Most people are savers, they should want the market to go down.

“They should want to buy at a lower price.”

Buffett’s comments came as Dow futures were down by about 800 points or 3% on Monday as stocks around the world plunged as the Covid-19 outbreak escalated.

Regarding the coronavirus specifically, Buffett made clear that he is “not a specialist.” And he warns that “a very significant percentage of our businesses one way are affected.”

However, he reiterates that investors should be more focused on the long term, not the short term.

“If you’re buying a business, and that’s what stocks are... you’re gonna own it for 10 or 20 years, ” he says.

“The real question is has the 10-year or 20-year outlook for American businesses changed in the last 24 hours or 48 hours?” the legendary investor asks.

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Rio 2016 Olympics sets good example; Smug Aussie swimmer won’t cloud Rio

The Olympic flame burns in Maracana Stadium during the opening ceremony at the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Aug 5, 2016. [Photo by Wei Xiaohao/China Daily]

Congratulations, and many thanks to Rio de Janeiro, for the innovatively choreographed and beautifully executed opening ceremony for the Olympic Games, which was mesmerizing, inspiring, and thoroughly entertaining.

From supermodel Gisele Bundchen's elegant walk across the stadium floor and the first-ever refugee team to the all-green Olympic rings and the Samba, there was indeed plenty to enjoy and remember.

What amazed us even more is the way Rio has achieved it, and in such a graceful manner, when so many thought it was impossible.

The Rio Games could not have come at a worse time for Brazil, under the triple pressures of an economic recession, the like of which the country has not seen in decades, a domestic political crisis and the Zika threat.

The prospect of Rio hosting a decent Olympics once seemed so bleak that some even suspected the International Olympic Committee had made a bad choice awarding the city the 2016 Summer Games.

With Beijing and London setting a high bar for opening ceremony theatricality, few had anticipated anything this impressive from Rio. After all, opening ceremonies are increasingly costly these days with host countries competing to invest in effects they deem commensurate with the self-image they intend to project.

Rio, on the other hand, had a budget that was reportedly 12 times less than London's and 20 times less than Beijing's. It was operating on a comparative shoestring.

But the show they presented was nothing short of spectacular. Which prompted one Chinese commentator to gasp in admiration, "Who needs money when you have a conscience?"

Money does matter when it comes to hosting an international sporting event like the Olympic Games. But Rio offered a loud reminder that money is not everything, and conscience and creativity can go a long way.

Besides visuals that were hardly less fabulous than what we saw in Beijing and London, and the strong message about climate change, this aspect of the opening ceremony challenges future hosts and the Olympic community to rethink the way the world's largest sporting gala is handled.

We particularly admire the organizers' idea that it was unnecessary to spend large sums of money on the opening ceremony, when such undertakings as education and public health in Brazil are crying out for funds.

Like the "Avatar-like allegiance" to the environment demonstrated in the opening ceremony, this is a poignant Brazilian statement on conscience and social responsibility we sincerely wish will reach the hearts of all future Olympic hosts. Including those in Beijing, who are preparing for the upcoming 2022 Winter Olympics. - (China Daily)

Rio 2016 medals tally

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Search Results

Olympic Games Rio 2016

OVERVIEWSportsON TVSCHEDULEAthletesMEDALSCountries

Medal standings

	Country
	1 United States		5		7		7		19
	2 China		5		3		5		13
	3 Australia		4		0		3		7
	4 Italy		3		4		2		9
	5 Japan		3		0		7		10

Smug Aussie swimmer won’t cloud Rio

Mack Horton of Australia (Center), Sun Yang of China (Left) and Gabriele Detti of Italy pose with their medals during the Men's 400m Freestyle Victory Ceremony in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on August 6, 2016. [Photo/Agencies]

The Chinese Swimming Association (CSA) has called its Australian counterpart, to demand Australian swimmer Mack Horton apologize to Chinese swimmer Sun Yang, against whom Horton initiated a personal attack. To no one's surprise, the Australian side declined, saying Horton "is entitled to express a point of view."

The CSA's protest is a consolation for Sun, and the one voice from the Chinese media and public backing Sun shows the unity of Chinese society and the people's human touch.

Horton won the first gold medal for Australia at the Rio Olympics, and has become a hero for the country. It is understandable if Swimming Australia finds it difficult to teach him a lesson right now for his rude and irresponsible words.

The problem is that it seems the entire sports circle and media in Australia do not have a problem with Horton's ill-mannered and provocative remarks. In a response to the CSA, Swimming Australia didn't forget to flaunt the "freedom of speech" cliché with a swaggering ego. According to their logic, it seems that no matter how derisive and slanderous the remarks could be, it is all free speech, which should be praised.

If so, the focus of the squabble will go beyond Horton's ill manners and silliness. The whole level of Australia's awareness of sports ethics and glory is as low as that of a young and brash kid.

Australia's aberrant response is confusing not only to the Chinese, but also to many other Westerners. How come the Australians are not ashamed of Horton's personal attacks, but are shamelessly climbing to the moral high ground in this case?

From China's perspective, Australia, an English-speaking and developed country, is a typical part of the Western world. But actually, Australia has always been a "second-class citizen" in the West, and many people from Western Europe, especially the UK, feel condescension toward Australians.

Australia used to be a land populated by the UK's unwanted criminals, and this remains a stigma attached to Australian culture.

Eager to be completely accepted by the Western world and afraid of being overlooked, Australia has grown docile and obedient in face of the US and the UK.

However, in front of Asian countries, it cannot help but effuse its white supremacy. The tangle of inferiority and superiority has numerous reflections in Australia's foreign exchanges.

We don't have to take seriously the tinge of barbarism that comes out of some Australians, nor should we pay keen attention to some vindictive provocations. China cannot be distracted from its own path of development, so it should turn a blind eye to what should be despised.

Horton and his backers represent the dark side of Australian society, and it is time for us to look at the bright side of the Olympic Games. This trifling botheration won't ruin our beautiful memories of this grand event. - Global Times

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There is a line between free speech and "trash talk" : IOC

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) supports freedom of speech but there should be a line drawn between freedom to speak and "trash talk".

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'Paper cat' Australia will learn its lesson

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Oil Prices: What’s Behind the Drop? Simple Economics

 

    Some think it will be years before oil returns to $90 or $100 a barrel, a price that was pretty much the norm over the last decade. Credit Michael Stravato for The New York Times

The oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, is in its deepest downturn since the 1990s, if not earlier.

Earnings are down for companies that made record profits in recent years, leading them to decommission more than two-thirds of their rigs and sharply cut investment in exploration and production. Scores of companies have gone bankrupt and an estimated  250,000 oil workers have lost their jobs.

The cause is the plunging price of a barrel of oil, which has fallen more than 70 percent since June 2014.

Prices recovered a few times over the last year, but the cost of a barrel of oil has already sunk this year to levels not seen since 2003 as an oil glut has taken hold.

Also contributing to the glut was Iran’s return to the international oil market after sanctions were lifted against the country under an international agreement with major world powers to restrict its nuclear work that took effect in January.

Executives think it will be years before oil returns to $90 or $100 a barrel, a price that was pretty much the norm over the last decade.

What is the current price of oil?

Brent crude, the main international benchmark, was trading at around  $38 a barrel on Wednesday.

The American benchmark was at around $37 a barrel.

Why has the price of oil been dropping? Why now? 

This a complicated question, but it boils down to the simple economics of supply and demand.

United States domestic production has nearly doubled over the last several years, pushing out oil imports that need to find another home. Saudi, Nigerian and Algerian oil that once was sold in the United States is suddenly competing for Asian markets, and the producers are forced to drop prices. Canadian and Iraqi oil production and exports are rising year after year. Even the Russians, with all their economic problems, manage to keep pumping.

There are signs, however, that production is falling because of the drop in exploration investments. RBC Capital Markets has calculated projects capable of producing more than a half million barrels a day of oil were cancelled, delayed or shelved by OPEC countries alone last year, and this year promises more of the same.

But the drop in production is not happening fast enough, especially with output from deep waters off the Gulf of Mexico and Canada continuing to build as new projects come online.

On the demand side, the economies of Europe and developing countries are weak and vehicles are becoming more energy-efficient. So demand for fuel is lagging a bit.

Who benefits from the price drop?

Any motorist can tell you that gasoline prices have dropped. Diesel, heating oil and natural gas prices have also fallen sharply.ny motorist can tell you that gasoline prices have dropped. Diesel, heating oil and natural gas prices have also fallen sharply.

The latest drop in energy prices —  regular gas nationally now averages just above $2 a gallon, roughly down about 40 cents from the same time a year ago — is also disproportionately helping lower-income groups, because fuel costs eat up a larger share of their more limited earnings.

Households that use heating oil to warm their homes are also seeing savings.

Interactive Graphic: Why Oil Is Plummeting »

Who loses?

For starters, oil-producing countries and states. Venezuela, Nigeria, Ecuador, Brazil and Russia are just a few petrostates that are suffering economic and perhaps even political turbulence.

The impact of Western sanctions caused Iranian production to drop by about one million barrels a day in recent years and blocked Iran from importing the latest Western oil field technology and equipment. With sanctions now being lifted, the Iranian oil industry is expected to open the taps on production soon.
In the United States, there are now virtually no wells that are profitable to drill.

Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell and BP have all announced cuts to their payrolls to save cash, and they are in far better shape than many smaller independent oil and gas producers.

States like Alaska, North Dakota, Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana are  facing economic challenges.

There has also been an uptick in traffic deaths as low gas prices have translated to increased road travel. And many young Saudis have seen cushy jobs vanish.

What happened to OPEC?

Iran, Venezuela, Ecuador and Algeria have all pressed OPEC, a cartel of oil producers, to cut production to firm up prices. At the same time, Iraq is actually pumping more, and Iran is expected to become a major exporter again.

Major producing countries will meet on April 17 in Qatar, and some analysts think a cut may be possible, especially if oil prices approach $30 a barrel again.

King Salman, who assumed power in Saudi Arabia in January 2015, may find it difficult to persuade other OPEC members to keep steady against the financial strains, even if Iran continues to increase production. The International Monetary Fund estimates that the revenues of Saudi Arabia and its Persian Gulf allies will slip by $300 billion this year.

Interactive Graphic How the U.S. and OPEC Have Controlled Prices »

Is there a conspiracy to bring the price of oil down?

There are a number of conspiracy theories floating around. Even some oil executives are quietly noting that the Saudis want to hurt Russia and Iran, and so does the United States — motivation enough for the two oil-producing nations to force down prices. Dropping oil prices in the 1980s did help bring down the Soviet Union, after all.

But there is no evidence to support the conspiracy theories, and Saudi Arabia and the United States rarely coordinate smoothly. And the Obama administration is hardly in a position to coordinate the drilling of hundreds of oil companies seeking profits and answering to their shareholders.

When are oil prices likely to recover? 

Not anytime soon. Oil production is not declining fast enough in the United States and other countries, though that could begin to change this year. But there are signs that supply and demand — and price — could recover some balance by the end of 2016.

Oil markets have bounced back more than 40 percent since hitting a low of $26.21 a barrel in New York in early February.

Some analysts, however, question how long the recovery can be sustained because the global oil market remains substantially oversupplied. In the United States, domestic stockpiles are at their highest level in more than 80 years, and are still growing.

But over the long term, demand for fuels is recovering in some countries, and that could help crude prices recover in the next year or two. - The New York Times

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American FBI's China accusation spurred by finance, not a good idea to spy on friends!

On Thursday last week, the FBI released a film entitled The Company Man: Protecting America's Secrets, which targets economic espionage. The 35-minute film features two Chinese economic spies who try to bribe a US employee with money, attempting to acquire insulation technology from the latter's company. The two were later prosecuted and caught in the net of justice. According to media reports, the video has already been shown nearly 1,300 times at US enterprises.

An FBI official publicly voiced that "China is the most dominant threat we face from economic espionage … The Chinese government plays a significant role."

The official also declared that economic espionage has caused losses of hundreds billions of dollars annually to the US economy.

How much is "hundreds of billions of dollars?" Say $300 billion, about 2 percent of US annual GDP.

Since the FBI believes that there has been a 53 percent surge in economic espionage in the US, and 95 percent of US companies suspect that China is the main culprit, does it infer that China has stolen 2 percent of US GDP?

Some people may ponder that given the Cold War is over, Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein were eradicated and the war on terror is seemingly not that urgent for the moment, and in light of US federal budget constraints, the FBI needs to find new strategic reasons for more funds. Therefore, the "position" of "Chinese economic spies" has been greatly elevated.

What the FBI has done is bound to injure Sino-US relations. But it is US society that will suffer the most. Many Americans will hence think that their economy is fine, their companies have no problems at all and the only issue is the threat from Chinese economic espionage.

It looks to them like Chinese intelligence services and civilian business spies are much more powerful than the FBI, CIA and other non-governmental intelligence forces combined. China is not capable in every category except for spy technology. This is the logic of the FBI.

If we take a good look at China's overall development in this changing world, you will see that one-third of global new technical patents are now created by Chinese companies every year. Innovation has also become China's national slogan. China will eventually be able to challenge the West's dominance in high technology.

China is well aware that it should learn from the West, especially the US, in terms of technology. But this is not stealing.

US universities are also attracting students from all over the world, yet this brings more benefits than losses to the nation due to the dissemination of knowledge.

Someone who always claims that his house was robbed and feels free to suspect his friend or neighbor is the thief is very annoying, and that is what the US is doing right now. The whole world knows that US intelligent agencies are the most notorious regarding this issue.

We hope that the often-silent Chinese intelligence services could expose some hard evidence of espionage by US spies, and make a spy movie featuring US espionage, providing it with a mirror to look at itself.- Global Times

Not a good idea to spy on friends

THERE's been so much dramatic news these days – from Greece's miseries to Iran, China from blowhard Donald Trump – that the shocking story of how America's National Security Agency has been spying on German and French leadership has gone almost unnoticed.

Last year, it was revealed that the NSA had intercepted Chancellor Angela Merkel's cell phone. She is supposed to be one of Washington's most important allies and the key power in Europe. There was quiet outrage in always subservient Germany, but no serious punitive action.

Brazil's president, Dilma Rousseff, was also bugged by American intelligence. Her predecessor, Luiz Lula da Silva, was also apparently bugged.

This year, came revelations that NSA and perhaps CIA had tapped the phones of France's president, Francois Hollande, and his two predecessors, Nicholas Sarkozy and Jacques Chirac. Hollande ate humble pie and could only summon some faint peeps of protest to Washington. Luckily for the US, Charles de Gaulle was not around. After the US tried to strong-arm France, "le Grand Charles" kicked the US and Nato out of France.

Last week, WikiLeaks revealed that the NSA had bugged the phone of Germany's foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, for over a decade. Imagine the uproar and cries "the Gestapo is back" if it were revealed that German intelligence had bugged the phones of President Barack Obama or Secretary of State John Kerry.

A lot of Germans were really angry that their nation was being treated by the Americans as a northern banana republic. Many recalled that in the bad old days of East Germany its intelligence agency, Stasi, monitored everyone's communications under the direct supervision of KGB big brother at Moscow Centre.

The National Security Agency and CIA claim their electronic spying is only aimed at thwarting attacks by anti-American groups (aka "terrorism"). This claim, as shown by recent events, is untrue. One supposes the rational must be a twist on the old adage "keep your enemies close, but your friends even closer".

Ironically, the political leaders listed above – save perhaps Brazil's da Silva – are all notably pro-American and responsive to Washington's demands.

Why would the US risk alienating and humiliating some of its closet allies?

One suspects the reason is sheer arrogance … and because US intelligence could do it. But must US intelligence really know what Mr Merkel is making Mrs Merkel for dinner?

Until WikiLeaks blew the whistle, some European leaders may have known they were being spied upon but chose to close their eyes and avoid making an issue. Raising a fuss would have forced them to take action against the mighty US.

Besides, British, Italian and French intelligence are widely believed to have bugged most communications since the 1950's. But not, of course, the White House or Pentagon. The only nation believed to have gotten away with bugging the White House was Israel during the Clinton years. The Pentagon was bugged by a number of foreign nations, including Israel, China and Russia.

Humiliating Europe's leaders in this fashion is a gift to the growing numbers of Europeans who believe their nations are being treated by the US as vassal states.

There is widespread belief in Western Europe that US strategic policy aims at preventing deeper integration of the EU and thwarting a common foreign policy or a powerful European military. Britain serves as a Trojan horse for America's strategic interests in Europe.

Way back in the 1960's, then German defence minister Franz Josef Strauss, an ardent proponent of a truly united Europe, thundered that Europeans would not play spearmen to America's atomic knights. But, of course, that's just what happened.

The US still runs and finances Nato in the same way the Soviet Union commanded the Warsaw Pact. Washington calls on Europe for troop contingents in its Middle East and south Asian colonial wars in the same way that the Persian Empire summoned its vassals to war.

Many Germans and French, both right and left, would like their leaders to react more forcefully to NSA's ham-handed spying. However, Merkel and Hollande are both political jellyfish eager to evade any confrontation with Big Brother in Washington. Maybe he has too much dirt on them.

But a confrontation is inevitable one day if Europe is to regain its true independence that was lost after World War II.

By Eric S. Margolis who is an award-winning, internationally syndicated columnist. Comments: letters@thesundaily.com

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BRICS and SCO: Seizing the Eruasian moment

While the West is distracted by the Gulf region and Ukraine, moves are afoot in parts of Asia and Europe to empower emerging regions in the future

IF there is still any doubt that Russia and China are cultivating their global presence together, events in recent days come as a timely antidote.

The five emerging BRICS economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, spanning nearly as many continents, had their seventh summit in Ufa, south-western Russia on Thursday.

Any lingering uncertainty over Moscow-Beijing relations would also have been dispelled by the fact that the BRICS summit was held back-to-back with the 15th Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit on Friday.

The SCO is an association of six countries – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan – and prime movers China and Russia, which also happen to be dominant. Its summit this time saw a growth in membership with the inclusion of India and Pakistan.

The BRICS countries have certain shared concerns and objectives, such as national development and international commerce that need not conform to the strictures of the Washington Consensus.

Strictures imposed by the Bretton Woods institutions, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have bled already anaemic economies and destabilised countries in the developing world on the basis of ideological prescriptions.

At the same time, these Western-dominated financial institutions failed to give emerging economies, epitomised by China, their rightful voice according to their global economic importance. Thus a cash-rich China has had to evolve financial institutions of its own.

Such multilateral efforts are best done together with like-minded nations. So besides BRICS, SCO countries that span Eurasia – with a collective focus on Central Asia and now also South Asia – have come together to develop alternative funding agencies.

In addition to the Beijing Consensus of rapid growth that is politically conscious, defined and directed, there is now the “Shanghai Spirit” of mutual respect, trust, benefit and consultation with equality.

These values broadly mirror the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence adopted by China and India (Panchsheel Treaty) two generations ago.

But even as SCO membership sees steady growth, it is clear enough that its main drivers and those of BRICS are China and Russia. By dint of sheer size and capacity, particularly those of China, Beijing and Moscow have come to lead the rest.

The way Washington has managed to alienate China and Russia at the same time has helped develop their partnership. Following years of US criticism of both countries, the US navy chief lately branded Russia as the greatest threat while presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton accused China of hacking US sites.

Russia and China were thus prodded by the US to work more closely together. US foreign policy is often said to be defined by domestic interests, or perceived interests, and this is seldom more true than when a presidential election campaign approaches.

However, improving relations between China and Russia are not thanks solely to US posturing. Moscow and Beijing are not without common interests of their own.

On Thursday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rallied member countries of both BRICS and the SCO to fight terrorism together. International terrorism today is a clear and present danger, a substantive threat and a common scourge requiring close cooperation particularly among neighbouring countries.

While BRICS’s terms of reference are more economic, the SCO’s are broader and more strategic. Within BRICS, member nations have formed a Business Council and formulated an Economic Partnership Strategy. Key sectors are manufacturing and infrastructure besides clean energy and agriculture.

But the star attraction at Ufa was the launch of the New Development Bank (NDB), also known as the BRICS bank, with an initial capital of US$100bil (RM378.2bil).

To be based in Shanghai with its first president in India’s K.V. Kamath, the NDB would be raising funds locally and internationally. It is set to issue its first loans next April. This is among four new financial institutions championed by China, the others being the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Silk Road Fund and the SCO’s Development Bank.

In the SCO context, member countries had made strides in the energy, telecommunications and transportation sectors. Now such gains needed to be affirmed while also developing opportunities in agriculture. Russia places a special priority on the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which also covers Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, with Russia dominant. China has prioritised its Silk Road Economic Belt initiatives linking Asia with Europe.

Working together, the EAEU and the Silk Road projects would be promoted jointly by the SCO. The proposed financial institutions, to which China would be contributing the most, would finance these and other related projects.

The fortunes of BRICS economies however have dipped in recent months. The Ufa summit did not deny the current challenges but chose to emphasise the positives.

Although numbering just five countries, the BRICS group had contributed half of the world’s economic growth over the past decade and produced 20% of total global output. No less than IMF findings show that until 2030 at least, BRICS growth would outperform developed and other emerging economies.

For Russia, the plans and initiatives have a more immediate tactical purpose – to alleviate economic pressures brought on by Western sanctions against its moves in Ukraine.

For China, the longer-term strategic purpose covers efforts to facilitate more trade, expedite internationalisation of the renminbi and generally build and solidify China’s global stature.

In investing massively in the new financial institutions however, Beijing will be competing against the IMF, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.

In doing so it will have to be more borrower-friendly, minus the strictures so synonymous with the Western-run rivals. The official word is that these new lending agencies are not going to challenge the Bretton Woods institutions, but the practical effect is nonetheless to offer borrowers more choice.

To substantiate the claim that the new institutions will neither rival nor replace the older ones, China is also calling for more open international accountability of the IMF and the World Bank. Somehow that may still not come as comforting news to Western power brokers.

But after all the platitudes and hurrah in Ufa, there are now the realities to contend with.

Strategic analysts prefer to gauge the viability of regional institutions based on the common interests shared among member states. In this respect, the future of BRICS may seem less promising than the SCO’s. Precisely because of the broad spread of the BRICS countries, there is little they have in common besides an affinity with alternative modes of development.

Their economic growth has been significant, but achieved independently of other BRICS nations and – except for China – with little support from (integration with) other countries in their respective regions.

The obvious question arises as to how sustainable can BRICS as an entity be. The fortunes of international associations depend on more than goodwill and bravado.

The SCO by comparison holds more prospects for success. By comprising a contiguous region that includes Eurasia and a substantial chunk of the Asian land mass, cross-border concerns are shared and can be attended to jointly.

Furthermore, practical projects like the Silk Road Economic Belt and the EAEU require constant attention, commitment and contributions from the 60 countries and regions that are involved.

This may mean more obligations to begin with, but consistent maintenance will ensure better management and success.

By Bunn Nagara Behind the headlines

> Bunn Nagara is a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia.

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Asian voice carries greater weight now

FIFA World Cup gambling on the go, technologies got smarter

KUALA LUMPUR: Illegal betting for this year’s World Cup is set to hit a record high – thanks to smart technology which will allow punters to place bets from anywhere and at anytime.

Federal Secret Societies, Gambling and Vice Division (D7) principal assistant director Senior Asst Comm Roslee Chik said the total bets for the last World Cup in South Africa four years ago amounted to more than RM438mil nationwide.

“We expect this year’s tournament to surpass that amount as syndicates and gamblers are using smartphones rather than laptops.

“In the 2010 World Cup, we only had to deal with syndicates and gamblers using laptops but now smartphones have become the tool of the bookies,” he said.

Some of the gambling apps that are easily available are M88 Sports, IBCBET and SBOBET.

“We have started preparations in the last three weeks and we are ready to come down hard on anyone involved in illegal football betting,” SAC Roslee told a press conference in Bukit Aman yesterday.

Betting on football matches is illegal in Malaysia and even those who place bets on betting websites that are legal in other countries will face action.

Johor police have also set up a taskforce in every district to check on gambling activities and will focus on premises such as cybercafés and restaurants that offer live matches.

Johor police chief Senior Deputy Comm Datuk Mohd Mokhtar Mohd Shariff had these words of advice for those likely to get into bigger trouble by borrowing from loan sharks: “Just enjoy the games. There is no need to bet.”

Sabah police have set up eight teams for the Ops Soga 5 to combat football betting activities.

State CID chief Senior Asst Comm Omar Mammah said the police did not want to reveal details of their operations so they could catch the bookies and the gamblers by surprise.

According to SAC Roslee, although police arrested 143 people in 2010, including bookies and those who placed bets, most of them could not be prosecuted due to lack of evidence.

The youngest among those arrested was 15 and the oldest was 73. There were also 22 women and nine Indonesians.

He added that a total of 270 premises were raided nationwide during the month-long tournament and RM110,124 seized.

“We have learned some lessons and have improved our strategies.

“We will use the Anti-Money Laundering and Anti-Terrorism Act 2001 (Amlata) and enforcement will be more stringent,” he said.

SAC Roslee said bets for the World Cup would increase as the tournament progressed, with the stake getting higher for the quarter-final, semi-final and the final.

It is learnt that a minimum bet could from between RM200 and RM300 and they could go up to hundreds of thousands of ringgit.

SAC Roslee vowed the police would use the Prevention of Crime Act to catch syndicate members as a last resort.

“We will also work closely with the Malaysian Communication and Multimedia Commission to identify illegal gaming facilities and websites,” he said.

SAC Roslee added they were also looking into amending existing gambling laws, to enable the authorities to have more bite against illegal gambling syndicates as syndicates are using the Internet with servers based overseas.

“It is hard to get cooperation from the authorities in countries where gambling is legal,” he said.

- Contributed by Farik zolkepli, Yuen Meikeng, Randeep Singh, Aida Ahmad, Stephanie Lee, & Farhaan Shah

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Football Every Day Webcast to keep up with the samba beat



PETALING JAYA: The greatest show on earth has kicked off and the Football Every Day Webcast will be keeping up with the samba beat on a daily basis throughout the tournament’s duration.

With seasoned faces as well as fresh ones, join football crazy fans Zack Yusof, Daryl Goh, Ian Yee, Brian Martin and Nelsen Ng as they get together to run the rule over each day’s matches.

This time around, viewers and footie fans alike stand a chance to walk away with a pair of the latest Adidas Battle Pack Footwear worth up to RM800 and dining vouchers from SOULed Out.

To win, simply send us your most wacky and creative photo or video selfies of you and your friends enjoying the World Cup.

Entries can be submitted by email to football@thestar.com.my or via Twitter at @switchup.tv. Make sure to include your full name, IC and contact numbers.

The Star’s Football Every Day webcast can be viewed at www.Switchup.tv.

Smartphones causing a spike in betting among youth

PETALING JAYA: Internet gambling has become more rampant among young people, especially since it has become so easy to bet using smartphones.

Those aged between 17 and 30 now make up 75% of online gamblers. The other 25% consists largely of those aged between 31 and 42.

Data from Gamblers Rehab Centre (GRC) Malaysia received between 2007 and last year show that the number of online gamblers who received counselling have increased from just 16 cases in 2007 to 112 last year.

“We received an average of 120 gamblers seeking help from us every year.

“Due to the popularity of smartphones, internet gambling has become more common,” said the GRC in a statement.

“There is no age minimum and it is open to everyone. The only qualification is the amount of money one has in the account,” it said.

The GRC said online gambling on credit was operated by illegal syndicates that set up their own websites and appointed agents to get clients to open trading accounts.

“They will give their clients credits to bet. This type of gambling is very popular, especially among school students,” it said.

Any losses or wins would be transacted via the account on a fixed day of the week.

“Since it does not require any cash deposit, it causes many to lose control and fall into the whirlpool of gambling.

“In order to win back lost money or to repay their debts, clients tend to borrow money from loan sharks, who in fact, are partners in the whole operation,” the GRC said.

However, there are a few types of online gambling games which do not involve money and are found on Facebook, said GRC, adding that such games might encourage some to move on to “real” online gambling.

The GRC has conducted awareness seminars in schools and other places to prevent people from picking up the habit.

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• Drawn to a crushing end
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• FIFA World Cup 2014
• GROs add to the allure of illegal gambling joints

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