Why American presidents matter

 

Strong leaders club: Lee Kuan Yew was an admirer of Reagan and Nixon.— AP Photo/File 

 

 The zeitgeist of the world is infused by the character of the US leader. Biden will bring back the civility and generosity that the American spirit is associated with.

THE first American president to enter my personal consciousness was John F. Kennedy. It wasn’t his stirring rhetoric that reached me as a child in Singapore. It was the news of his assassination. The sense of loss was globally palpable. History has been kind to him.

He was succeeded by Lyndon Baines Johnson. As a child, I was puzzled. How could someone so ugly succeed someone who was so attractive? Indeed, he was boorish. Legend has it that he would summon his staff to meetings while sitting on his toilet seat, doing his business.

Still, history will be kind to him. His bold and massive civil rights legislation changed the course of US history. Which may explain why he has the most voluminous and still unfinished biography of any recent American president, in the four volumes by Robert Caro.

History has been unkind to Richard Nixon, his successor. Watergate killed him. The liberal media has not forgiven him. Yet there’s no doubt that he changed the course of human history. Without Nixon, Henry Kissinger could not have gone to China.

Lee Kuan Yew named Nixon as the greatest American president he had met, saying: “But for the misfortune of Watergate, I would say Richard Nixon. He had a realistic view of the world. He was a great analyst, realistic, but also a tactician to get things done.”

When Nixon stepped down, Lee lost a true friend in the White House, a major asset for the leader of a small country.

This partially explained the contempt Lee had for Jimmy Carter, whom he considered naive. In Tom Plate’s book, Giants Of Asia: Conversations With Lee Kuan Yew, Lee named Carter the worst president, saying of him: “Your job as a leader is to inspire and to galvanise, not to share your distraught thoughts. You make your people dispirited.”

Fortunately, Carter was succeeded by the two-term Ronald Reagan, another admirer of Lee. I was present when they met in the White House. Still, as a Singapore diplomat in Washington and New York during Reagan’s era, I experienced the condescension the liberal media displayed towards him. However, history has been very kind to Reagan, especially because of his spectacular victory over the Soviet Union.

Reagan was succeeded by another great friend and admirer of Lee, George H. W. Bush. I was present in a small room in St Petersburg, Russia, in the late 1990s, when Bush confirmed that the No 1 leader he admired in the world was Lee.

I reported this to him. Sadly, Bush became a one-term president, and his departure was another huge blow to Lee.

The point of these stories is a simple one. The selection of an American president has huge consequences for the world, including Singapore.

What Biden offers

Indeed, given the overwhelming power of America, especially in the media and communication dimensions, the zeitgeist of the world is infused by the character and personality of the American president.

Donald Trump’s narcissistic and self-absorbed personality has deprived the world of a major source of inspiration, especially after Barack Obama.

So what does the election of Joe Biden bring to the world? Will good times return? The short answer is yes and no.

Biden is a truly decent human being. He will bring back the civility and generosity that the American spirit is associated with.

However, Biden also knows that he is taking over a deeply divided country, as demonstrated by the huge numbers who voted for Trump even though he was defeated. His priority is to heal his country, not create a better world.

Nonetheless, Biden has at least three opportunities he can capitalise on to retain his positive glow.

First, he can bring back some boredom to the White House. Both America and the world have become exhausted by Trump’s tweets and in-your-face presence. Some calm and reticence by the Biden administration will help to return the world to a certain degree of normalcy.

Biden knows that he cannot do this alone. Fortunately, he has assembled a formidable transitional team of real American heavyweights. They share Biden’s distress over the divisions in the country. Repairing the wounds in American society and bringing back a happy America will be the main priority.

The second opportunity is geopolitical. Biden cannot reverse the US-China geopolitical contest, for reasons I have documented in my book, Has China Won? He would be persecuted if he is seen to be soft on China. Yet, even if he cannot reverse course on China, he can press the pause button on the contest.

Americans believe in common sense. Simple common sense would say that Americans should first deal with the pressing challenges of Covid-19 and economic slowdown, not to mention global warming.

All these problems would be better handled with some degree of cooperation with China. Just as Winston Churchill partnered an adversary, Joseph Stalin, to defeat Adolf Hitler, Biden can partner a competitor, China, to defeat Covid19. Both Nixon and Lee would have approved such a Machiavellian manoeuvre against a common foe.

The third opportunity lies in stopping America’s drift towards a plutocracy. One key reason why Trump was elected in 2016 was because of the “sea of despair” among the white working classes. This is because America is the only major developed economy where the average income of the bottom 50% has gone down. The anguish of these white working classes must be dealt with. Some redistribution must take place.

Reagan delegitimised taxes. Biden must re-legitimise them. And, if America’s many plutocrats are wise, they would support him.

In short, Biden can apply some gentle soothing balm on the many wounds generated by the Trump presidency. His greatest asset is his decency. Plain decency will bring a lot of healing to America. Trump may have been cruel to call him “Sleepy Joe”. Yet a “Sleepy Joe” and calm American presidency may be good for America and the world. 

 By KISHORE MAHBUBANI Kishore Mahbubani is a distinguished fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore, and the author of ‘Has The West Lost It?’ and ‘Has China Won?’-ANN

 

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China extends congratulations to Biden, Harris

Biden Photo: AFP 

The Chinese Foreign Ministry on Friday extended the country's congratulations to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, and said China respects the choice of the Americans.

Wang Wenbin, spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said that we have been watching the domestic and international reaction to the US presidential election, and we respect the choices of the Americans.

"We extend congratulations to Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris, and we also understand that the US election result will be decided in accordance with US laws and procedures," Wang said at Friday's media briefing.

Wang's remarks came after several world leaders and representatives of international organizations have congratulated Biden, who was declared the winner of the recent election.

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Biden will closely follow US road of traditional defense policy

Yet there is little possibility that the Biden administration will accidentally ignite a conflict in the South China Sea. However, the chances that Trump will do so in the final days of presidency are rising sharply as he needs to leave a wealthy legacy for the military industries before he officially leaves office. But for Biden, dealing with the messy relations with other countries will be his priority after dealing with the COVID-19 virus and troubled US economy.

 

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America’s third Covid-19 surges

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Coronavirus: Mapping Covid-19 Confirmed Cases and Deaths ...

America is in the middle of its third nationwide surge in Covid-19 cases — what some are calling a “third wave” — with reported cases hitting a record high of more than 100,000 in one day.

With that, the much-feared fall and winter surge of coronavirus cases that experts warned of for months is here. Despite the US already suffering at least 235,000 Covid-19 deaths — the highest death toll in the world — it looks like things are getting worse.

As of November 8, the seven-day average of daily new coronavirus cases was more than 111,000, a record high. That’s up from a recent low in the seven-day average of fewer than 35,000 cases on September 12. The increase doesn’t appear to be driven by a single state or region — although the Dakotas, Iowa, and Wisconsin appear to be in particularly bad shape — but rather spikes across much of the country at once, with more cases reported in the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West.

The spike is partly due to more testing exposing more cases. But that can’t be the full explanation, because hospitalizations and the overall rate of positive tests are trending up. Over the most recent week of data, the seven-day average for daily tests increased by only 9 percent while daily new coronavirus cases increased by 34 percent.

Unlike the summer’s surge of coronavirus, the US isn’t alone in its latest wave — cases have risen in much of Europe, too. Still, that doesn’t mean this was inevitable: With aggressive measures, developed nations like Canada, Germany, and especially Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea have kept their Covid-19 caseloads much lower than America’s or Europe’s as a whole. And many European countries, unlike the US, have started to tame their outbreaks with new measures, from lockdowns to mask mandates.

Experts have long warned that a surge was coming in the US in the colder seasons. Even though the country never fully suppressed its summer surge in Covid-19 cases, most states have moved to reopen more businesses, including risky indoor spaces like restaurants and bars, as well as schools, with colleges and universities proving particularly problematic so far.

President Donald Trump, for his part, has encouraged the rapid reopenings — even after his own illness. As he left the hospital, Trump tweeted, “Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life.” He’s kept pushing a false sense of normalcy in the weeks since, even going as far as mocking masks and claiming, falsely, that they’re ineffective. (In reality, the evidence for masks keeps getting stronger.)

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Budget 2021 – Great expectations

 

LAST Friday, the Finance Minister tabled what is now known as Malaysia’s largest-ever budget.

The excellently-crafted and well-written budget was presented in a couple of hours and after it was presented, the social media, mainstream media, economists, consulting firms and investment banking strategists gave their views on the measures, especially those related to taxes, incentives or grants.

Now that Budget 2021 has been tabled, lawmakers will debate on the merits and vote on it. Having covered budgets for more than two decades, the devil is in the details and this year is not an exception.

Let’s look at the gross domestic product (GDP) estimate first. The government expects GDP growth for 2020 to contract by 4.5% and for next year, it is estimated to grow by between 6.5% and 7.5% in real terms. For the economy to close the year with the projected contraction, the second half of 2020 has a very small room to contract by only 0.7% as the economy shrank 8.3% in the first half.

This is a tall order as economic data remains largely weak as seen in several indicators, which include the industrial production index as well as the poor reading in the retail sub-segment.

With almost the entire nation under the conditional movement control order, economic growth, if any, will be challenging.

Meanwhile, in nominal terms, the government expects GDP growth to be -4.7% this year and to rise significantly by almost 9% in 2021, as inflation is expected to return with a reading of 2.5%, mainly due to the low base effect from 2020.

Perhaps when the Bank Negara releases the third quarter GDP data on Friday, we can then assess if the full year GDP assumption still holds water or otherwise.

For 2021, the government expects GDP growth to be driven by domestic demand, in particular growth from private consumption while the external sector may post some drag as imports are forecast to grow even faster than exports.

On the supply side, the government expects the services and manufacturing sectors, which account for 80% of the economy, to grow by 7% each while construction is expected to bounce back with a near 14% leap in 2021 after the forecast drop of 18.7% this year. From here, we can observe that one of the key drivers of the economy next year is public investment, as the government has bumped up development expenditure to the tune of RM69bil for 2021 from the adjusted figure of RM50bil this year (which was previously forecast to be at RM56bil).

The government’s total expenditure is now broken into three main buckets – other than operating expenditure and development expenditure, we now have a new line item called the Covid-19 Fund with an allocation of RM38bil this year and RM17bil next year.

In essence, since the pandemic outbreak, the government has introduced various economic stimulus packages under its Prihatin package series and the Penjana package, which in total amounted to RM305bil, while the actual direct fiscal injection totaled RM55bil.

However, under the Temporary Measures for Government Financing (Coronavirus Disease 2019) Act, the Parliament had only approved a ceiling of RM45bil for the fund and hence the Minister has proposed, taking into consideration the nation’s need up to 2022, an amendment that will be tabled to raise the fund to RM65bil, an increase of RM20bil.

This increase that was mentioned in the budget speech is meant for the RM10bil Kita Prihatin package, additional assistance for people’s well-being, as well as to secure the supply of the much-needed vaccine. The table above summarises the government’s revenue projection for this year and the next.

The expected revenue for the second half of the year and into 2021 will be challenging for the government, given the level it had achieved in the first half. As it is, the second half forecast is 23.3% higher than the first half.

In addition, for 2021, revenue and expenditure are expected to increase by 4.2% and 4.3% respectively, which will likely be tough given the tax breaks that the government is proposing, in particular, company income tax (CITA) and personal direct taxes.

Based on government’s estimate, taxes from the two sources are expected to fall by 6.8% and 7.2% this year but will bounce back strongly in 2021 with a growth of 8.8% and 18.2% respectively.Interestingly, the 2021 forecast for CITA and personal direct taxes at RM64.6bil and RM42.4bil is higher than 2019’s figure by 1.3% and 9.7% respectively.

As for expenditure, as total federal government debt stood at RM874.3bil mark or 60.7% of GDP as at end of September 2020, the government’s Debt Service Charges (DSC) too have deteriorated.

From an estimated level of 15.4% of GDP this year, DSC is expected to drop further to 16.5% in 2021, mainly driven by 11.6% increase in absolute DSC to RM39bil.

Although both the DSC ratio in 2020 and 2021 will be higher than the self-imposed fiscal limit ratio of 15%, it is hoped that by beyond 2021, this ratio will be brought under control when the economy is expected to expand further.

All in, Budget 2021 measures are holistic and inclusive for all levels of society and have been cleverly crafted to address the challenges faced by Malaysians, especially those severely impacted by Covid-19.The government has largely listened to the voices of hope in addressing the pandemic world.

Having said that, the expected government’s revenue and GDP projections are rather optimistic, resulting in a much lower budget deficit figure while the forecast government tax revenues too are on the high side. While the DSC has now surpassed the self-imposed ceiling, the government’s debt to GDP ratio is expected to remain elevated for at least this year and in 2021.It is important for the lawmakers to approve this budget as the government has taken steps in keeping the economy going.

While there are some shortcomings in the terms of budget allocations, it is hoped that this can be ironed out during the parliamentary debate stage and all lawmakers come to an consensus to approve the gigantic budget.

Pankaj C. Kumar is a long-time investment analyst. Views expressed here are his own. 

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The FM really got SHOCKED when LGE asked him whether the budget was approved by the cabinet. Watch the video.

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Amid headwinds, China charts a technology-focused future

Economic freedom: Xi leading other Chinese leaders at the fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the CPC in Beijing on Oct 29. China’s leaders are vowing to make their country a self-reliant “technology power” after a meeting to draft a development blueprint for the state-dominated economy over the next five years. — Xinhua via AP

 WHILE the world was following the US presidential elections closely hoping for a positive change in international dynamics, they did not ignore the most important political meeting taking place in China on Oct 26-29.

The developments in China – the only country showing solid economic recovery after combating the Covid-19 epidemic in Wuhan – are too important to be eclipsed by the drama in Washington led by President Donald Trump.

The Oct 26-29 meeting gave a glimpse of the future plans of China, after Beijing withstood two major challenges: the containment from the US and a major public health crisis caused by the novel coronavirus.

The effective control of the virus has enabled China to revitalise its economy, which it contracted in the first half of the year. In the third quarter, China’s GDP posted a positive growth and is expected to see even stronger expansion this quarter.

It is against this backdrop that China was holding its most important policy meeting this year.

Over the four days, top leaders of the Communist Party of China (CPC) led by President Xi Jinping deliberated China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) to chart the future development path for the world’s second largest economy.

They also endorsed a blueprint to achieve President Xi’s vision of turning China into a “great modern socialist nation” by 2035, which by then is expected to be “prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced and harmonious”.

The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee set goals to spur China’s modernisation drive, pursue self-reliance in science and technology to support its development and modernise defense capabilities, according to a post-plenum press conference live on CCTV4.

A communique summarizing the decisions was released on Oct 29 night to the media.

More than 200 leaders and elite members of CPC met behind closed doors to identify policy priorities for keeping the economy growing in the middle of a pandemic, supply chain disruptions, toxic relations with the West and global economic downturn, according to the South China Morning Post.“This five year plan is China’s most important policy program, which sets goals and directions for the national economic and social development, ” said Professor Wang Wen, who was involved in drafting the plan.

The executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China added that this plan is a “very comprehensive plan” as public opinion was collected on the Internet and reported to decision-making levels.

And President Xi had personally held frequent symposiums on various fields and sectors ahead of the plenary session.

“The plan takes into account the interests and demands of the whole country, various industries, regions and institutions. It is a design to start a new journey of fully building a modern socialist country after China completes the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects, ” Wang said in a post-event comment piece emailed to Sunday Star.

At the post-event press conference on Oct 30, the media were told Beijing would actively promote “technological self-reliance” to speed up China’s ambition as a “technology power.”

Self-reliance is the main theme of the five-year plan as China faces the threats of economic decoupling and de-globalisation, as well as other headwinds, the media learnt.

China had to nurture its own microchip producers and high technology in the face of US export curbs that has hurt China’s tech industry.

According to a report, Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei has lost a lot of its supply sources of high-precision chips; and if the US ban continues and Beijing does not act, Huawei may have to stop its high-end smart-phone production.

“We will take scientific and technological self-reliance as a strategic support for national development, ” Han Wenxiu, an adviser to President Xi, said at the Oct 30 news conference.

State-linked Global Times, in its editorial, said Trump’s China policies have awakened the Chinese from complacency.

It said: “If it were not for the US’ suppression, Chinese people may have always built our industries on American semiconductors.

“Over the past four years, the US’ China policy has awakened China. It has made us understand we may be stuck on key technologies and we must make up for technological shortcomings.

“It has also convinced us that the US will not accept China’s rise and will do everything to suppress China. This is a cold reality.”

The CPC plenary session has also endorsed the “dual circulation” economic strategy.

Under this new strategy, China will remain open to foreign investment and trade, while moving its pivot to build up an internal economy. The model looks at the domestic market as the country’s economic mainstay, with domestic and foreign markets complementing each other.

Although there is greater emphasis to create the domestic economy by spurring local spending, China will continue to open more sectors to foreign investors.

The message sent to foreigners is: China will not isolate itself from the global economy while developing its domestic economy to be self-reliant in all aspects.

And in fact, at the opening of Shanghai’s third import expo on Wednesday, Xi announced China wants to import more and be the market of the world. He added China’s 400 million-strong middle class will be ready consumers.

According to Han, the Oct 26-29 meeting also decided that China will continue to pursue reforms and open up as it believes in multilateralism and globalisation.

He said: “We will never waver in our national policy of opening up. China will provide countries around the world with larger markets and more opportunities.”

In the next five years, China will focus on high-quality growth and expansion of domestic markets, as well as increasing its innovation capability.

“As China is no longer a follower but a front-runner, the meeting must have considered how China can lead the global economy. The following five years will not be easy. However, as long as we grasp the law, enhance awareness of risks and opportunities... China will witness a completely new scene of development, ” commented Wang.

As China is facing possible risks of clashes with the US and its allies that are conducting extensive military exercises in waters in South China Sea and nearby waters, military buildup is on the agenda in the next five years.

“China’s necessary military buildup is urgent. Based on the principle of effective defense, besides establishing military advantages in coastal waters, we must consolidate our strategic deterrence based on nuclear capabilities, ” explained Global Times in its editorial.

“We must make Washington realise that it is facing a China that it should be wary of trifling with, and that treating China as a friend rather than a foe much better fits US national interests, ” added Global Times.

Despite this, the communiqué released said the party plans to promote peaceful reunification of Taiwan.

In the four-day intense meeting, the welfare and interests of the people were not left out.

After eradicating the last of extreme poverty this year and lifting 700 million out of abject poverty in the past 40 years, the next goal for the CPC leaders is to hit its target of building a “moderately prosperous society” in 2021.

In fact, the goal to become “a moderately prosperous society” in by 2021 has been achieved, according to state media.

Acknowledging that the Covid-19 pandemic has affected many people, the plenary session discussed employment, income disparity, the quality of life and education, health issues and elderly care, the media were told on Oct 30. While the plenary session deliberated a lot on economic issues, foreign media are keen to scrutinise it from a political angle. To Japan’s Nikkei, the “2035”

figure is a magical figure that could provide indication on the leadership tenure of Xi, who became president in 2013.

“The long-running speculation that Xi is considering staying in power way past 2022 was in effect confirmed as China put in motion an ultralong 15-year vision promising new levels of prosperity by 2035, ” reported Nikkei.

But whether outsiders love CPC or not, China’s 1.4 billion Chinese have the final say.

According to a nationwide survey, about 95% of Chinese nationals polled said they support the CPC leaders and are satisfied with the manner they govern the country and overcome the Covid-19 crisis.

“History has selected the CPC to lead China and its people. The CPC, under the strong and excellent leadership of President Xi, will continue to rule China, ” declared one of four spokesmen at the Oct 30 live press conference.

He added: “The plenary session believes that under the leadership of Xi Jinping, China will be able to face risks and tackle challenges ahead and advance a socialist economy with Chinese characteristics.”

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US President-elect Joe Biden to form pandemic task force

US President-elect Joe Biden has announced he will form a task force of scientists and experts to bring COVID-19 under control in the United States.

 US President-elect Joe Biden vowed to heal and unite the US, a process that will begin with naming a group of scientists and experts as transition advisers on Monday to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic, in a speech at a rally in his hometown of Wilmington, Delaware.

The COVID-19 task force plan will be built on bedrock science, and be constructed out of compassion, empathy, and concern, Biden said as he declared victory Saturday night at the rally.

"I will spare no effort, none, or any commitment to turn around this pandemic."

"Our work begins with getting COVID under control. We cannot repair our economy, restore our vitality or relish life's most precious moments... until we get it (coronavirus) under control," Biden said.

The President-elect said, "On Monday, I will name a group of leading scientists and experts as transition advisors to help take the Biden-Harris plan and convert it into an actual blueprint that will start on January 20, 2021."

The US President-elect said he wanted to provide "some comfort and solace" to the families of the 230,000 Americans who had died from COVID-19. In his speech, Biden also thanked local elected officials and volunteers who worked the polls in the middle of the pandemic.

The US has been hit hard by the pandemic, which has infected over 9 million and killed more than 236,000 Americans.

Biden also vowed to "restore the soul of America" and "rebuild the backbone" of the US. "Let this grim era of demonization in America begin to end here and now," Biden said.

The US President-elect pledged to be a president who seeks not to divide but unify. Addressing those who voted for President Trump, Biden said he understood their disappointment. "But now, let's give each other a chance," he said.

The former vice president said it was time to listen to each other again, and to make progress.

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New Covid-19 cases at its highest 

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CMCO to involve 400,000-Bayan Lepas FTZ/FIZ smong the areas affected

3,000 Penangites to take PCR test

PETALING JAYA: The government has announced a month-long conditional movement control order (CMCO) in Kedah, Penang, Perak, Melaka, Johor and Terengganu from Monday due to the rising number of Covid-19 cases in the states.

The CMCO will end on Dec 6.

“It will be for all states in Peninsular Malaysia, except for Perlis, Pahang and Kelantan,” said Senior Minister for Security Ismail Sabri Yaakob at a press conference today.

“The implementation of the CMCO is to allow the health ministry to conduct targeted screenings and to decrease movement in the community, in addition to curbing the spread of Covid-19 in these states.”

The rules under the CMCO are as follows:

• inter-state and inter-district travel is prohibited, except for emergency cases, in which case a travel permit by the police is required and all workers must either show their employee pass or a letter from their companies;

• only two members of a household may leave the house to buy necessities;

•  all schools, higher education institutions, training institutes, kindergartens, childcare centres, public parks and recreational centres will be closed;

• activities in the economic, industrial and trade sectors would be allowed to operate as usual;

•  all forms of public transport, such as buses, taxis and e-hailing services, with a maximum of two passengers, are allowed to operate from 6am to midnight;

• daily markets are allowed to open from 6am to 2pm, while wholesale markets may operate from 4am to 2pm, and night markets from 4pm to 10pm;

• petrol stations may operate from 6am to 10pm but those located along highways may operate 24 hours;

• clinics and public hospitals will be allowed to open for 24 hours while pharmacies and medicine stores may operate from 8am to 11pm;

• fishing, farming and the agriculture sectors may operate as usual; and;

• all social gatherings, including weddings, and entertainment activities, are not allowed.

Ismail also said all religious activities in mosques will be decided by the state religious authorities, adding that further details may be found on the National Security Council’s (MKN) website.

Meanwhile, Ismail announced that the Maahad Al-Yahyawiah government-aided religious school in Padang Rengas, Kuala Kangsar, Perak, will be placed under the enhanced MCO from tomorrow until Nov 21.

He said the decision was made after 27 positive cases were detected in the area on Nov 5.

He added that the health ministry would continue conducting targeted screenings on a total of 123 students and 11 staff members at the school.

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