Singapore may tighten finance rules, monitoring new forms of illicit financing

Move to curb money laundering, terror financing activities

The Monetary Authority of Singapore may step up regulations to curb money laundering and terrorism financing risks posed by remittance agents, money changers and some Internet-based payment systems. 

Controls on pawnbrokers and corporate service providers such as lawyers and accountants can also be improved, according to a government risk study released today. Singapore authorities are closely monitoring virtual currencies such as Bitcoins that may be used for illegal activities and will consider regulation if needed, according to the report.

“Singapore’s openness as an international transport hub and financial center exposes it to inherent cross-border” money laundering or terrorism financing risks, according to the study. MAS “has put in place a robust preventive regime. Nonetheless, there are areas for further enhancement.”

The risk assessment study comes seven weeks after Singapore police and the bank association urged residents to be wary of fraudsters seeking to use their bank accounts to funnel illegal funds after an increase of reported cases last year.

Remittance agents, who accept funds for transfer to individuals outside Singapore, and money changers operate in “cash-intensive” industries and offer greater risks of money laundering or terrorism financing, according to report.

Total outward remittance from Singapore amounted to S$24.1 billion ($19 billion) in 2012, while inward remittances were S$995 million, the government said in the study. Volumes in the money-changing business that year were S$36.8 billion. The implementation of controls in these industries isn’t as robust as in banks and MAS will ensure “enforcement efforts are further stepped up,” according to the report.

More Powers 

The pawnbroking industry had total loans outstanding at over S$1 billion in 2012, the study showed. The number of pawn shops in the city increased to 191 that year from 114 in 2008.

MAS is also considering additional supervisory powers and requirements to bolster “nascent” money laundering and terrorism financing controls for Internet payment companies such as PayPal Inc. or Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s Alipay.

Agencies involved in the study included MAS, the customs bureau, the casino regulator, the finance, home affairs and law ministries, and the Accounting and Corporate Regulatory Authority.

Accountants and other corporate service providers can be exposed to money laundering and terrorist financing activities if higher-risk customers hire them to set up complex structures that conceal ownership and reduce the transparency of transactions, according to the study.

Tax Evasion 

Singapore’s central bank is stepping up its anti-money laundering rules in line with global regulations following U.S. authorities’ investigation of several Swiss banks for their dealings on behalf of American clients. MAS made it a crime last July for clients to use financial institutions to evade tax.

UBS (UBSN) AG and Credit Suisse Group AG, Switzerland’s largest banks, are among firms implicated in a U.S. crackdown since 2008 on offshore tax evasion that led to charges against about 70 American taxpayers and 30 bankers, lawyers and advisers.

The U.S. charged UBS in 2009 with aiding tax evasion by thousands of American clients. The Zurich-based bank avoided prosecution by paying a $780 million penalty, admitting it fostered tax evasion and agreeing to hand over data on client accounts to U.S. tax officials.

Private Banking 

Risks for private banks operating in Singapore are lower than those for full banks because they have fewer clients, less physical cash transactions and more checks when customers open accounts, according to today’s report. Singapore is Asia’s largest private banking center with offshore assets of about $800 billion, Boston Consulting Group data show as of September.

In Singapore, the number of reported cases of illegitimate cash being given to so-called money mules to hand over to a third party increased to 133 in the first nine months of last year, up from 93 for all of 2012, local police, the bank association and the National Crime Prevention Council said in November. The amount of illegal monies in those cases fell to S$15.5 million from 2012’s S$24.6 million.

- Contributed by Darren Boey in Hong Kong at dboey@bloomberg.net; Sanat Vallikappen in Singapore at vallikappen@bloomberg.net

Singapore monitoring new forms of illicit financing

Asian financial hub Singapore on Friday said it was scrutinising trade in virtual currencies such as Bitcoin as well as precious stones and metals to forestall new forms of illicit financing by criminals and terrorists.

In an inaugural report on money laundering and terrorist financing risks, the city-state said these sectors were identified for further study "as technology evolves and criminals become more sophisticated".

"Authorities will seek to better understand how money laundering and terrorist financing can be carried out through these channels," said the joint report by the finance and home affairs ministries as well as the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

It said the government would "review international best practices, to determine whether any safeguards and mitigating measures are needed".

The report said virtual money and precious metal-backed currencies carry the risk of being abused due to their anonymity, cross-border nature and low transaction costs.

The MAS, which serves as the city-state's central bank, "is closely monitoring developments in this area and will consider the need for regulation if necessary", the report said.

Bitcoin, the world's most popular form of electronic money, made headlines last year when US authorities closed the Silk Road website when it was found the currency was being used to buy illegal drugs, forged documents, hacker tools and even the services of hitmen.

The report also said Singapore was monitoring the trade in precious stones and metals.

"There are international typologies on the use of precious stones and metals as a tool to launder money, particularly as a store-of-value to move illicit proceeds easily," it added.

The bank said of 22 sectors that were assessed, the city's vast financial sector remained among the most vulnerable to abuse owing to the large number of transactions that take place and its wide international reach.

Singapore houses the regional offices of some of the world's top financial institutions and its total assets under management are now around Sg$1.4 trillion ($1.02 trillion), according to the MAS.

The report said "relevant controls are in place" for financial institutions, including supervision by MAS, record keeping, transaction monitoring and rigorous customer due diligence measures.

It identified remittance agents, money-changers, Internet-based stored value facility holders, pawnbrokers as well as corporate service providers as sectors where "controls are relatively less robust".

"Relevant government agencies will be strengthening the legislative and supervisory framework through the year to address the risks in these sectors more effectively," it said.

"The possibility that terrorist elements may seek to direct funds from abroad to support terrorism activities in Singapore or use Singapore as a conduit for foreign (terrorist financing) cannot be discounted," the report said.

Singapore in 2001 said it crippled a cell of the Southeast Asia-based militant network Jemaah Islamiyah with the arrest of suspects linked to an alleged plot to bomb local and foreign targets including Changi Airport.

Officials say the island republic is a prime target for extremist groups because of its close ties with the United States and major role in global finance and business.- AFP

PCs Mark Steepest Drop in 2013, Lenovo maintained the No. 1

Personal-computer shipments fell 10 percent in 2013, marking the worst-ever decline after lackluster holiday sales underscored how consumers and businesses are shunning machines for mobile devices, two research firms said.

Manufacturers shipped 315.9 million units, returning to 2009 levels and making it the “worst decline in PC market history,” researcher Gartner Inc. said in a statement yesterday. IDC also said shipments had a record decline.

U.S. consumers omitted PCs from their holiday shopping lists while buyers in Asia opted for smartphones and tablets. More computing tasks are moving to websites and applications tailored for wireless gadgets, rather than software installed on laptops and desktops. The annual drop eclipsed the previous record decline of 3.9 percent in 2012, Gartner said.

“Consumer spending during the holidays did not come back to PCs as tablets were one of the hottest holiday items,” said Mikako Kitagawa, an analyst at Stamford, Connecticut-based Gartner. “In emerging markets, the first connected device for consumers is most likely a smartphone, and their first computing device is a tablet.”

Global sales fell 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter -- the seventh straight drop -- to 82.6 million units, Gartner said. IDC, based in Framingham, Massachusetts, reported a decline of 5.6 percent in the same period.

Corporate Upgrades

Lenovo Group Ltd. (996) maintained the No. 1 spot worldwide with 18.1 percent market share in the fourth quarter, helped by a 6.6 percent increase in shipments, according to Gartner. Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) was second with a 16.4 percent share as shipments declined 7.2 percent. Dell Inc. was third, the researcher said.

“We are extremely optimistic about the future of the $200 billion-plus PC industry,” Yang Yuanqing, Lenovo’s chairman and chief executive officer, said in a statement. “We continue to outperform the market while steadily improving profit and margin.”

Lenovo shipped 14 million PCs in the last quarter, it said.

Growth in the PC market has become dependent on consumers and businesses replacing existing machines, rather than wooing new buyers. Enterprise demand is being driven in part by Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)’s plan to end support for its 13-year-old Windows XP operating system in April, compelling businesses to buy new PCs along with software upgrades.

U.S. shipments shrank 7.5 percent in the fourth quarter to 15.8 million units, Gartner said. Unit sales in Europe, the Middle East and Africa fell 6.7 percent to 25.8 million, while the Asia-Pacific region saw a 9.8 percent decline to 26.5 million.

Loren Loverde, an analyst at IDC, said the decline in PC shipments was the worst since the researcher started tracking data in 1981, with the previous record seen in 2001, when sales shrank 3.7 percent.

“We don’t think it’s quite the bottom yet,” Loverde said. IDC is predicting a 3.8 percent decline in PC shipments for 2014 this year, and then growth of less than 1 percent in 2015, he said.

Contributed  By Aaron Ricadela - Bloomberg

Internet addiction taking toll on health !

Internet addiction has become a new threat to healthy living for Malaysians, depriving them of sleep and exercise, a survey by a global insurance group has found.

A whopping 73% of Malaysian adults who took part in the 2013 AIA Healthy Living Index survey admitted that their online activities and social networking were getting addictive, putting the country a­­mongst those with the highest addiction rates in the Asia-Pacific region.

The poll by AIA Group covered over 10,000 adults in 15 Asia Pacific markets.

Of some 900 Malaysian respondents, 81% stated that spending time online prevented them from getting enough exercise or sleep while 80% claimed that their posture was affected.

The survey noted that this addictive trend would continue to be fuelled by children growing up with the Internet as an integral part of their lives.

On healthy living, 67% of adults in Malaysia felt that their health was not as good as it was five years ago.
Overall, Malaysia scored 61 out of 100 points in the survey.

Malaysia also fared poorly in the area of healthy habits, with 32% of adults admitting that they did not exercise regularly.

On average, Malaysians spent only 2.5 hours on exercise a week, below the regional average of three hours and below the ideal recommended by most experts.

Sufficient sleep was rated the most important driver of healthy living in Malaysia and the region.

While adults in Malaysia desired eight hours of sleep, they only had 6.4 hours on average, leading to a sleep gap of 1.6 hours, the third highest in the region.

Spending time online was listed as one of the causes of this sleep deprivation.

The survey mentioned that these not very positive health habits were aggravated by a preference for sedentary ways to relieve stress, such as watching TV or movies, playing computer or mobile games and spending time online.

Spending time with family and children or friends was also a popular way to de-stress for Malaysians.

Meanwhile, healthy food habits were still limited to the basics of drinking more water as well as eating more fruits and vegetables, although 56% of Malaysian adults were also trying to eat less sweets and snacks.

There was also much concern about obesity – 64% of Malaysian adults said they wanted to lose weight, above the regional average of 53%. Further, 93% agreed that obesity among younger people was a worrying trend.

Cancer, heart disease and being overweight were the top health concerns in Malaysia, with the former two being above regional averages.

Despite these concerns, only 50% of Malaysian adults had medical check-ups in the past 12 months.

The study found that 89% of adults in Malaysia felt that employers should help employees live a healthy lifestyle, mainly by providing free health checks, not subjecting em­­ployees to undue stress and ensuring workloads were not excessive.

AIA Bhd chief executive officer Bill Lisle said the company was committed to helping Malaysians live longer and healthier lives.

“Through this extensive survey, we are keen to identify and enhance awareness of the key trends that impact the health of adults so we can actively work with the community and our customers to promote more positive attitudes.”

Contributed  by Lim Ai Lee The Star/Asia News Network

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2.You addicted to Facebook ?
3.Cyber crooks target gamers; E-gambling dens menace, raid in Penang, etc
4.Technology can work both ways, problems and solutions

Financial talent crunch worsen

PETALING JAYA: The talent crunch in the local financial services sector is expected to worsen in the coming years partly driven by the Gen Y segment that currently makes up about 25% of the workforce in the banking system.

Asian Institute of Finance (AIF) chief executive officer Dr Raymond Madden said that the talent shortage could be due to the lack of understanding on how to cope with the Gen Y group.

Madden:‘At the moment this group of people (Gen Y) makes up about 40% of the current workforce in Malaysia.

“Within the next eight to nine years, we expect the Gen Y workforce in the banking system to rise to about 50% from 25% currently, which means that almost half of the people working in banks will be Gen Y employees, namely those below 30 years of age.

“At the moment this group of people (Gen Y) makes up about 40% of the current workforce in Malaysia and in many Asean countries. This number is expected to increase to 75% within a relatively short span of time,’’ he told StarBiz.

According to the Financial Sector Blueprint published in 2011, the workforce number in the financial sector stood at 144,000. It is anticipated that over the next 10 years, the sector would require a workforce of about 200,000, an increase of 56,000 from the current 144,000 employees.

Madden said among the sectors in the financial services industry that were facing talent shortage was in Islamic finance, notably in the areas of syariah expertise.

Besides this, he added, the crucial areas in the banking system facing talent shortage were in credit and risk management, corporate finance, treasury and wealth management.

He said due to the expected rise of the Gen Y workforce in the financial services in the coming years, banks and other financial services sectors needed to have a better understanding and knowledge of this group.

This group, he said, was looking at what he termed as the three E’s – engage, enrich and empower. He described Gen Y as an impatient lot as they wanted to be prominent in the organisation and would join another organisation if they did not achieve their targets.

As this group was ambitious and wanted to climb up the career ladder as quick as possible unlike their older counterparts, hence employers needed to know how to deal effectively with the Gen Y segment.

Towards this end, Madden said AIF – through its four affiliate institutions – was working closely to beef up talent in the financial services sector.

The affiliates are Institute of Bankers Malaysia (IBBM), Islamic Banking and Finance Institute Malaysia (IBFIM), The Malaysian Insurance Institute (MII) and Securities Industries Development Corp (SIDC).

For example, he said the Financial Sector Talent Enrichment Programme (FSTEP), which is run by IBBM, had played an important role in training new graduates in the financial services industry.

FSTEP is an intensive-training programme that prepares trainees for the operational aspects of finance and banking.

AIF in collaboration with UK-based Ashbridge Business School carried out a survey this year, which among others, showed that 22% of Gen Y employees in Malaysia believed it was reasonable for them to be in a management role within six months of starting work at their respective organisations.

Commenting on the survey, he said there were also inter-generation gaps that existed in the financial services industry between the Gen Y and their older managers, adding that there was a clear difference in perception of Gen Y managers and Gen Ys themselves.

The survey polled 1,200 financial services professionals, including senior human resources personnel who actively manage Gen Ys in their respective organisations.

Contributed by by Daljit Dhesi - The Star/Asia News Network

Trapped Chinese research ship & icebreaker Xuelong makes successful escape from Antarctic ice

Chinese research vessel and icebreaker Xuelong sails in the open waters in Antarctica, Jan. 7, 2014. Trapped China icebreaker Xuelong made successful escape through heavy sea ice at 18:30 Beijing time on Tuesday. (Xinhua/Zhang Jiansong)

ABOARD XUELONG, Jan. 7 (Xinhua) -- Trapped Chinese research vessel and icebreaker Xuelong made a successful escape through heavy sea ice at 18:30 Beijing time (1030 GMT) Tuesday.

Xuelong, or Snow Dragon, has been making consistent efforts to "veer around" the whole day while navigating through thick floes.

The vessel had a difficult time trying to make a turnaround rightward, which started at 5 a.m. Beijing time (2100 GMT Monday), because of the thick ice and the snow covering the floes.

No breakout was made until about 17:50 Beijing time (0950 GMT) when Xuelong pulled a 100 degree turn and strongly pushed away the ice. Under the huge blow, a big floe right ahead suddenly split up and a channel of open waters showed itself. Xuelong quickly voyaged through the channel and broke free of the ice.

The Chinese research vessel and icebreaker, which was on China's 30th scientific expedition to Antarctica, on Dec. 25, 2013 received a distress signal from the Russian ship MV Akademik Shokalskiy which was trapped in Antarctic sea.

Xueying-12, a helicopter on-board Xuelong, last Thursday successfully evacuated all the 52 passengers aboard the Russian vessel to the Australian icebreaker Aurora Australis.

A helicopter from the Chinese icebreaker Xue Long rescues members of an expedition who had been stranded after their Russian ship was trapped in Antarctic ice. (AFP PHOTO/Jessica Fitzpatrick/Australian Antarctic Division)

However, after the rescue, Xuelong's own movement was blocked by a one-km-long iceberg which was continuously drifting northwest. Xuelong attempted to maneuver through the ice after the giant iceberg drifted away, but its breakout early Saturday morning was unsuccessful.

For these days, Xuelong's being stranded in heavy sea ice in Antarctic Ocean has drawn great attention from the Chinese leadership and the Chinese people. Under the directions of an emergency relief working group aboard, the Xuelong crew have been working in joint efforts to find a way out.

Currently, Xuelong is on voyage in open waters in the Southern Ocean where only a few floes drift on the sea surface, at approximately 66.45 degrees south and 144.50 degrees east. The ship, now sailing at a speed of 9 knots, continues its scientific expedition to Antarctica. - Xinhua

Xuelong epitome of humanitarian outreach

A series of events involved in the rescue of passengers from an icebound Russian research vessel in Antarctica have attracted attention from much of the world in recent days.

Now, China's research vessel Xuelong, or Snow Dragon, has successfully transferred all the passengers to safety, but eventually got stuck itself. The US is sending its most advanced heavy icebreaker to site of the incident for rescue, and Xuelong is trying to break out of the ice.

Xuelong has been in the spotlight during the whole process of the rescue. Originally sent to found China's fourth research station in the Antarctic, this research vessel turned its course immediately when it received the Russian ship's distress signal, regardless of any risks ahead.

Xuelong, not a professional icebreaker, failed to rescue the ship from the ice. But its performance, especially the success in rescuing all the passengers, has been given the thumbs up by global public opinion. China should be proud of it.

The Chinese public also expressed their full support to Xuelong's rescue operation. Although Chinese taxpayers would finally pay all the expense for the rescue, they believe that Xuelong has assumed its international responsibility, not giving a thought as to whether the mission was "worthwhile" or not.

Xuelong's mission is an epitome of China's attitude toward its international obligations. China is willing to integrate itself within the international community as a responsible member.

Along with the establishment of China's fourth research station, the country's scientific research level in Antarctica has already been ranked as one of the best. It is China's growing industrial capacity that empowers Xuelong to perform such a rescue operation. Once again, China's national progress was accidentally confirmed in Antarctica.

This whole rescue operation, at the very beginning, was just a "ship-to-ship" business. But public opinion gradually sensed the existence of the nations behind the scenes. It will come to an end as a humanitarian rescue event. Xuelong has already offered its best performance in this humanitarian test, which shows that Chinese society is growing to be highly mature.

Chinese people care about the image of its nation, but such an image never confuses them when it comes to making the right choice. Throughout the whole event, the safety of the rescuers and the people who were trapped was always their biggest concern.

Well done, Xuelong. We hope it can pull through from the trouble and resume its mission.

We also hope that such effective international cooperation will not only be seen when catastrophes occur. Such a spirit of cooperation will become the most powerful strength to reshape international relations in the 21st century.    - Global Times

Challenging times for central banks all over the world to rejuvenate global economy

Banks must find balance between continuing to support activity without sowing seeds of another asset bubble

The decade and a half after the tearing down of the Berlin Wall was a golden age for central banks. It was a time of strong growth and low inflation presided over by committees of technocrats charged with taking the politics out of the messy business of setting interest rates.

The European Central Bank (ECB) was created, the Bank of England was granted operational independence and Alan Greenspan ruled the US Federal Reserve.

Mervyn King, who retired last year after a 10-year stint in charge at Threadneedle Street, described the period from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s as the Nice decade. That stood for non-inflationary continual expansion and in the west was primarily the result of cheap imports flooding in from China, which kept the cost of living low and enabled central bankers to hit their inflation targets while keeping borrowing costs down.

Times have changed. The six and a half years since the financial markets froze in August 2007 have been anything but nice. Greenspan is no longer called the Maestro – the title of a hagiography by Bob Woodward before the sky fell in – and is instead vilified as a serial bubble blower.

Central banks found that their traditional policy instruments were ineffective as the banks tottered in the autumn of 2008. They resorted to more potent weapons: dramatic cuts in interest rates, the creation of money through the process known as quantitative easing; inducements to persuade banks to lend; forward guidance on the expected path of interest rates to reassure individuals and companies that the cost of borrowing would stay low.

There was no 1930s-style slump and the global economy bottomed out around six months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. But recovery was slow by historical standards and the global economy has displayed signs of being addicted to the stimulants provided by central banks.

All of them will be under scrutiny in 2014 as the world's central bankers seek a way of getting the balance right in continuing to support activity without sowing the seeds of another asset bubble.

Get it right and the reputation of the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the People's Bank of China (PBoC) will be burnished. Get it wrong and the history books will look back on the crisis and its aftermath as the years when central banks lost the plot and saw their credibility shattered.

The Federal Reserve (US)

The Fed made its intentions clear last month when it announced it was scaling back its quantitative easing programme from $85bn a month to $75bn, with further tapering due to take place during 2014. At the same time, the US central bank softened its stance on interest rates and said unemployment will have to fall to 6.5% – and probably lower – before the cost of borrowing is raised.

The low level of inflation means that policy can remain stimulative under its new chairman, Janet Yellen, but with growth strengthening, the Fed has to beware repeating Greenspan's mistake in the early 2000s when he left rates too low for too long.

Dhaval Joshi of research house BCA said: "From January the Fed is going to reduce the pace of its asset purchases and shift the policy onus to its forward guidance on interest rates, relying on the credibility of its words and promises. As we are in uncharted territory, the eventual market reaction is unclear, and there is certainly the possibility of disruption."

The European Central Bank (ECB)

After a quiet 2013, the ECB has a number of big calls to make in the coming year. Not only is the recovery from a long double-dip recession tepid but the euro area as a whole is perilously close to deflation. Greece and Cyprus are already seeing the annual cost of living fall. So the first question for ECB president Mario Draghi is whether to seek to stimulate the euro area economy through quantitative easing – QE – just at the moment the Fed is tapering away its programme.

A second, linked issue is the strength of the euro, which threatens to choke off exports. David Owen of Jefferies says the ECB has two possible policy options: QE or co-ordinated intervention to weaken the currency. Markets will also pay close attention to the ECB's asset quality review of European banks, when it has to decide whether to come clean about the capital shortfalls many are believed to face.
If Draghi is too opaque he will be accused of a cover-up; equally, he will get the blame if a fully transparent approach leads to a run on banks and – because they are large holders of euro-area government debt – drives up sovereign bond yields.

The People's Bank of China(PBoC)

The challenge for the PBoC is simple: remove the credit excesses of the world's second biggest economy without causing a hard landing. November's third plenum of the Communist party in Beijing set the Chinese economy on a liberalisation course, a move welcomed by most analysts in the west as likely to ensure the long-term sustainability of growth.

In the short term, though, there is the little matter of easing growth back from the 10% per annum of recent years to 6.5% to 7%. On the plus side, China still has a battery of credit controls that will provide protection against mass capital flight if things start to get sticky; on the debit side, the vast quantity of credit pumped into the economy in 2008–09 has led to an overheated commercial property market, heavily indebted local government and industrial overcapacity.

An indication of the challenge facing the PBoC was provided by the spike in interbank rates to almost 10% last month – raising fears that a tightening of policy is causing a credit crunch for the banks.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ)

Japan is a warning to the ECB of what can happen if deflation is allowed to set in. Just over a year ago, Japan's prime minister, Shinzo Abe, announced a "three-arrow" strategy that became known as Abenomics: radical monetary easing from the BoJ, a Keynesian programme of public works, and structural reform.

In the early stages of the programme, the BoJ is doing the heavy lifting, using negative interest rates and quantitative easing to drive down the value of the yen, raise import prices and push inflation up towards its official target of 2%.

Japan is especially vulnerable to a slowdown in the global economy which, on past form, would attract speculative money into the yen, drive down prices and force the BoJ into even more unconventional measures.

The Bank of England (BoE)

Mark Carney's big innovation at Threadneedle Street has been forward guidance, which he used when governor of the Bank of Canada. This involves a commitment not to consider raising interest rates until unemployment falls to 7%, unless there is the risk either of inflation getting out of control or of a housing bubble that can't be tackled using measures specifically targeted on the property market. But the Bank has underestimated both the speed of the fall in the jobless rate and the pickup in the mortgage market. Carney's fear is that premature tightening of policy will kill off recovery in its early stages, but markets are starting to question whether he can hold the line until the next general election in May 2015.

Contributed by Larry Elliott The Guardian

Investing in 2014

Value Investing Summit 2014 - 'Live'

The end of the year is the time to reflect on the past and the beginning of the year is time to reflect on the future. 

SO how did your portfolio do last year?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average for US stocks hit 16,576 with a 26% gain for the year, the best year since 1996. By comparison, the Hang Seng Index performed 3%; Tokyo Nikkei did best at 57% and Bursa Malaysia ended 10.5% higher, just a tad off its record high.

On the other hand, the fastest growing economy in the world had the worst stock performance – the Shanghai A share index closed the year at -8%. Gold prices fell 27% to US$1,196 per oz, while property prices seemed to have done well in the United States and China. Bond prices are now extremely shaky, with the JPM Global Aggregate Bond Index falling by 2% during the year.

What is going on?

The answer has to be quantitative easing (QE) by the advanced country central banks. The world is still flush with liquidity and since investors are unclear on what direction to invest in, they have reversed investments in commodities (such as gold), avoided bonds because of prospective rises in interest rates and essentially piled into stocks.

Individual investors like you and I tend to forget that the market is really driven today by large institutional investors, including fast traders with computer-driven algorithms that have better information than the retail investor and can trade in and out faster and cheaper. It is not surprising that retail investors who have traditionally driven Asian markets have been moving more to the sidelines.

Even institutional investors are not equal. Long-term fund managers like pension funds and insurance companies are, by and large, highly regulated, with restrictions on what they can or cannot buy. So it is not surprising that the biggest money managers are today even larger than banks. BlackRock, the largest independent fund manager alone looks after nearly US$4 trillion, larger than most banks in emerging markets.

There are, of course, two types of asset management – active (where the managers actively invest according to their judgement on your behalf) and passive, where they simply follow the market indices or buy exchange traded funds (ETFs) that track market indices. According to the Towers-Perrin study of top 500 global asset managers, during the last decade, passive managers did better than the group as a whole.

So should we trust the market experts? I have been reading for years Byron Wien’s annual Predictions for Ten Surprises for the Year. Byron used to be a top investment pundit for Morgan Stanley but he is now working for Blackstone. His prediction of surprises is defined as events where average investor would assign one-third change of happening, but which he believed would have a better than 50% change of happening. He got roughly seven out of ten wrong in 2013, the more relevant mis-calls being the price of gold, a possible drop in S&P 500, the price of oil and the A share index.

Bill Gross, one of the top bond fund managers, pointed out that retail investors tend to be conservative, focusing largely on safe portfolios, such as investment grade and high yield bonds and stocks. But institutional investors have gravitated instead into alternative assets, hedge funds and more unconventional assets. Unfortunately, all these assets are “based on artificially low interest rates”. So if low interest rate policies are reversed, investors have to be prepared.

He rightly pointed out that the advanced country central banks are “basically telling investors that they have no alternative than to invest in riskier assets or to lever high-quality assets.” But if they withdraw QE or “taper”, then higher interest rates will cause a reversal of investment prices and also cause de-leveraging.

In other words, in order to bail out the world and keep the advanced economies afloat, their central banks are asking global investors to bear quite a lot of the risks of the downside. The smart money might be able to get out fast enough, but most retail investors do not have the skills to time their investments right.

So what should the retail investor do?

Peter Churchouse, who writes one of the best reports in Asia called Asia Hard Assets Report, quoted his son’s advice as “Buy good companies with strong earnings, strong growth and rock solid management. The world will go on.”

Quite right.

But how do we know which companies have rock solid management? My answer is: watch not what the annual report say (by all means read them), but look at what the management does. I have always tended to shy away from companies with high-profile CEOs who tend to win “Manager of the Year” awards.

There is, of course, no substitute for solid own research and look for yourself how the company or the economy that it operates in is doing.

The consumer or tourist is still the best investor because seeing for yourself gives you a feel of what is quite right or wrong with the country and just visiting the retail outlet, getting a sense of the service quality and the employee attitude would give you first hand what is right or wrong with the company you are investing in.

My favourite economy in Asia right now has to be Indonesia. I spent nearly 10 days over Christmas going through the markets of the most densely populated cities in Java and my conclusion was that Indonesia is on the move – literally. The population is young, mobile and connected. Every other shop seems to be selling mobile phones, cars or motorbikes. The quality of the retail shops, design and service has been improving over the years. And despite the coming elections, there is hope for change.

My bet, therefore, for 2014 is that if we stick to the better-run companies in the stronger economies, we should be better prepared for any tapering of QE to come.

Contributed by Tan Sri Andrew Sheng

Tan Sri Andrew Sheng is president of the Fung Global Institute.