Heralding the Golden Age of Cryptocurrency

 ■ Presidentelect Donald Trump’s embrace of cryptocurrencies marks a pivotal moment

■ Analysts projecting Bitcoin to reach US$200,000 by end-2025

■ The outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market is overwhelmingly positive, but risks remain

THE cryptocurrency world is buzzing with speculation that bitcoin could reach an unprecedented US$200,000 by 2025. While bitcoin has yet to stabilise around the US$100,000 mark, its meteoric rise in 2024 has emboldened investors and analysts to project a bullish future for the world’s leading digital asset.

Bitwise Asset Management, a prominent voice in the crypto sphere, has described the upcoming year as the Golden Age of Crypto.

According to the firm, the regulatory landscape in the United States has significantly improved following the 2024 US elections. President-elect Donald Trump’s embrace of cryptocurrencies marks a pivotal moment.

“We believe we are entering the Golden Age of Crypto,” Bitwise analysts, led by chief investment officer Matt Hougan and head of research Ryan Rasmussen, state in the group’s report.

Bitwise expects Crypto’s magnificent three – Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solanato – to hit new all-time highs in 2025, with bitcoin leading the rise to trade above US$200,000.

In addition to Bitwise, other analysts projecting bitcoin to reach US$200,000 include Geoff Kendrick, head of crypto research at Standard Chartered, and analysts at Bernstein, led by Gautam Chhugani.

Kendrick forecasts that bitcoin could hit this milestone by the end of 2025, driven by institutional investments in bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFS).

In a recent note, he stated that Standard Chartered’s target of US$200,000 by 2025 is “achievable”, adding: “We would become even more bullish if bitcoin experienced accelerated adoption by US retirement funds, global sovereign wealth funds, or the establishment of a potential US strategic reserve fund.

“We anticipate institutional flows to continue at or exceed the pace set in 2024. Microstrategy, for instance, is ahead of its Us$42bil threeyear plan, suggesting its purchases in 2025 will likely match or surpass those of 2024.”

Meanwhile, Bernstein’s analysts attribute their bitcoin price target of US$200,000 by end-2025 to unprecedented demand stemming from spot bitcoin ETFS managed by leading asset managers, according to media reports.

Trump effect

Essentially, crypto has emerged as a clear winner in the 2024 US elections, giving it a brighter regulatory outlook in the United States, Bitwise notes.

For one thing, Trump has announced plans to create a strategic bitcoin reserve and nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Bessent’s earlier comment that “crypto is about freedom and the crypto economy is here to stay” reflects the administration’s pro-crypto stance. The reshuffling of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has historically taken a sceptical view of digital assets, adds another layer of optimism.

Similarly, Bernstein analysts attribute bitcoin’s rise to Trump’s support for cryptocurrencies. They point out that his plan to position the United States as a global leader in the crypto space and his choice of Paul Atkins, a known crypto advocate, to lead the SEC have bolstered market confidence.

Record highs

Bitcoin has since cooled to below US$95,000 at the time of writing, after reaching an alltime high of US$103,992 earlier this month.

This marks a 141.72% increase year-to-date as of Dec 6, 2024. According to Bitwise, the surge was largely driven by the US launch of spot bitcoin ETFS, which set records with Us$33.6bil in inflows within their first year.

Other crypto assets, including Ethereum and Solana, also posted substantial year-to-date gains of 75.77% and 127.71%, respectively. This performance highlights how cryptocurrencies, led by bitcoin, ethereum and solana, have outpaced all major asset classes in 2024.

Crypto equities mirrored this bullish trend. Companies like Microstrategy and Coinbase saw their shares skyrocket by 525.39% and 97.57%, respectively. In comparison, traditional assets such as the S&P 500 and gold returned 28.07% and 27.65% over the same period, highlighting crypto’s dominance.

Catalysts for next milestone

The factors driving bitcoin’s trajectory towards US$200,000 are multifaceted, Bitwise highlights. The launch of bitcoin

ETFS in 2024 shattered expectations, and Bitwise believes 2025 will see even greater inflows.

“When US spot bitcoin ETFS launched in January 2024, ETF experts forecast the group to see Us$5bil to Us$15bil of inflows in their first year. They passed the higher end of that range within the first six months.

“Since launching, the record-setting ETFS have gathered Us$33.6bil in inflows. We expect 2025’s inflows to top that,” Bitwise says.

Drawing a parallel with gold ETFS launched in 2004, Bitwise notes that ETF inflows typically accelerate in subsequent years.

“The best historical analogy we have for the bitcoin ETF launch is the launch of gold ETFS in 2004. Flows petering out would be unusual,” it explains.

At present, major financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, and Bank of America have yet to fully embrace bitcoin ETFS.

Bitwise anticipates this to change in 2025, unlocking a wave of institutional investments. “The trillions of dollars these firms manage will start flowing into bitcoin ETFS,” Bitwise predicts.

Risk tolerance

While bitcoin remains the focal point, other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana are also poised for substantial gains in 2025. Bitwise’s price targets for Ethereum and Solana are US$7,000 and US$750, respectively.

Ethereum, despite its impressive 2024 performance, has faced competition from fastergrowing programmable blockchains.

However, Bitwise anticipates a “narrative shift” as activity on

Layer 2 blockchains and spot Ethereum ETFS gain traction.

Solana’s resurgence, driven by memecoin mania in 2024, is also expected to continue as serious projects migrate to its network, it says.

Meanwhile, JP Morgan points out that the role of crypto in portfolio construction is mostly a function of risk tolerance.

“Cryptocurrencies are inherently unpredictable: there is little visibility into future price movements and blockchain technology, while exciting, also has few barriers to entry, meaning tokens can become obsolete (and therefore worthless) as new ones enter the market with improved functionality,” the US asset management company cautions.

“As a result, for most investors, any allocation to crypto in a portfolio should be kept both small enough to ensure that even in the event of a significant sell-off it does not derail overall portfolio objectives and well diversified,” it adds.

While the outlook for bitcoin and the broader crypto market is overwhelmingly positive, risks remain.

Regulatory clarity, though improving, is still a work in progress.

The global economic environment, including interest-rate policies and geopolitical tensions, could also impact investor sentiment.

However, the convergence of favourable regulatory developments, institutional adoption and technological advancements positions bitcoin as a strong contender to achieve new heights, potentially reshaping the global financial landscape.

By CECILIA kok cecilia_kok@thestar.com.my

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SAFEGUARDING DATA IN M’SIA’S NEW ERA OF E-INVOICING

Vast potential: Digitalisation boosts growth and efficiency, but adopting strong cybersecurity measures and secure software can protect data, systems and customers. Image: Blake Wisz / Unsplashed

AS THE roll out for Malaysia’s e-invoicing mandate draws near, small businesses around the country are embarking on their digital transformation journeys.

In doing so, they unlock numerous benefits such as increased efficiency and productivity and improved customer engagement, while becoming more competitive and resilient.

This digital shift however, can also introduce significant data and security risks.

Understanding these risks is crucial to protect businesses, their data and their customers.

Data breaches and other online crimes, including hacking and financial fraud, can have disastrous effects on businesses, such as the exposure of sensitive customer information, intellectual property theft and the disruption of business operations.

These breaches in security can result in significant losses for companies, sometimes amounting to millions of ringgit.

Additionally, small businesses, often the targets of cyber-attacks because they are seen as more vulnerable, may lose valuable consumer trust and potential opportunities.

Ahead of the phased mandate launch in August, business owners can ensure they are fully prepared by understanding the key advantages and risks of e-invoicing, and take proactive measures to safeguard their business.

Security first: Cyber threats are increasingly complex and widespread. Small businesses can protect sensitive data by choosing reputable software with strong security.

Security benefits and e-invoicing considerations

Despite the risks, the shift towards e-invoicing is certain to offer businesses numerous immediate and tangible benefits.

Enhanced efficiency, reduced errors and improved transparency in financial transactions make e-invoicing more secure than manual handling and traditional invoicing practices.

With oversight from the Malaysia Digital Economy Corporation (MDEC), e-invoicing is tracked through the Peppol framework and verified in real-time, providing an additional layer of security and accountability.

Verification through Peppol ensures that invoices are authentic, preventing fraud and alterations.

This standardised network facilitates the secure and efficient exchange of electronic documents, protecting them from cyberattacks and potential data breaches.

Choose a reputable software provider

As Malaysian businesses look to adopt solutions that will enable them to comply with the upcoming mandate, prioritising reputable software providers to ensure data, privacy and security protection cannot be overstated.

In today’s digital landscape, cyber threats are pervasive and increasingly sophisticated, targeting vulnerabilities in businesses of all sizes.

By choosing established software providers known for robust security measures, small businesses can protect sensitive customer information and internal data from breaches and theft.

Reliable software providers offer regular updates, advanced encryption and compliance with regulatory standards, ensuring that businesses remain resilient against evolving cyber threats.

Additionally, this proactive approach fosters customer trust, as clients are more likely to engage with businesses that prioritise their privacy and data security.

Xero, for example, adheres to stringent security standards and compliance requirements to effectively safeguard user data.

By incorporating multi-factor authentication (MFA), user accounts and financial data remain secure and protected while Xero’s encryption protocols prevent unauthorised data access, safeguarding it from cyber threats.

With a global presence, including in countries such as the United Kingdom, United States, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand, Xero maintains a high level of cybersecurity features and compliance measures to meet regional and international standards.

The accounting platform currently supports many local businesses in streamlining processes and improving data security.

Additional precautions

In addition to leveraging the security features of cloud accounting software like Xero, Malaysian businesses can take extra precautions to safeguard their accounting data. This includes:

> Paying attention to security notices: staying informed about security alerts and notices from software providers to promptly address emerging threats.

> Reporting unusual activity: encouraging employees to report any suspicious or unusual activity related to accounting data to prevent potential security breaches.

> Deploying antivirus and anti-malware solutions: installing reputable antivirus and anti-malware software on their devices to protect against potentially malicious software.

There is no question that digitalisation presents enormous opportunities for growth and efficiency for small businesses, but with that, come some critical security risks.

By adopting cybersecurity measures and choosing software with robust protection features, small businesses can safeguard their data, systems and customers.

Proactive security management not only protects against financial losses and reputational damage but also builds trust with customers, fostering long-term business success.

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E-invoicing system set to go

PETALING JAYA: With two days to go, most of the 5,000 companies under Phase 1 of the e-invoicing rollout are raring to go and looking at a smooth takeoff, say stakeholders.

Associated Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry of Malaysia treasurer-general Datuk Koong Lin Loong said these companies, with an annual turnover of RM100mil and above, should not face any major hiccups when transitioning to e-invoicing on Thursday.

“They will be able to cope with the transition as these companies have the resources to do so,” he said when contacted yesterday about worries some businesses have expressed about beginning the e-invoicing process.

Asked if accounting firms acting for these companies are facing pressure in switching to e-invoicing, Koong, who is a practising auditor and licensed tax agent, said that it is unlikely.

ALSO READ: How e-invoicing affects you

“There is some misunderstanding that e-invoicing is like the Goods and Services Tax (GST), which required some companies to change their entire accounting system.

This is not the case with e-invoicing because companies are already generating invoices through email and their existing computing systems. The only difference is that their invoices will now be digitised and linked to the Inland Revenue Board (LHDN),” he added.

Koong also said that it is quite normal for businesses to express worries whenever a new system is introduced, like mobile phone and QR code payments, for instance.

ALSO READ:‘There’s time for smaller companies to learn the new system’

“There would have been a lot of complaints prior to the Covid-19 pandemic (in 2020) if businesses had been asked if ewallets could be used to make payments. They were practically non-existent.

“But nowadays such payments are widely accepted even among smaller businesses and hawkers,” he said.

Experts say the pandemic greatly sped up digital payments globally, as, for a few years, people were living mostly online.

ALSO READ:LHDN announces six-month grace period for einvoicing implementation

When it comes to e-invoicing, the driving force is efficiency in collecting taxes and stopping leakages to increase the government’s tax revenue. To further ensure a smooth transition, Koong said the LHDN has announced some flexibility and relaxation of e-invoicing regulations.

For instance, there will be no prosecution action under Section 120 of the Income Tax Act 1967 for non-compliance with e-invoicing rules, provided the business complies with consolidated e-invoicing requirements.

This means the supplier can gather all statements or bills issued and then issue a consolidated einvoice as proof of the supplier’s income, according to einvoicemalaysia.my.

ALSO READ:Are you ready for e-invoicing starting Aug 1?

Koong added that the LHDN is planning to roll out an e-invoicing mobile app and e-POS (electronic point-of-sale) system by the end of this year, free of charge for businesses to download.

Phase 2 of the e-invoicing system will be implemented on Jan 1, 2025, for companies with a turnover of below RM100mil and up to RM25mil, while full implementation under Phase 3 will begin on July 1, 2025, for businesses with an annual turnover of above RM150,000.

Malay Chamber of Commerce Malaysia secretary-general Ahmad Yazid Othman said most Phase 1 companies are ready, although some may still be facing some difficulties, especially smaller businesses that serve the larger companies under the Aug 1 rollout.

He added that companies are expecting to run into teething problems just as they did when the GST was first implemented in April 2015.

ALSO READ:The e-invoicing dilemma

“The LHDN has given its assurance of some flexibility and relaxation of regulations during the initial implementation period, and this is most welcome.

“We hope that companies will not delay implementing e-invoicing with these assurances, which will at the same time motivate other companies to speed up the transition process when their turn comes,” he said.

Ahmad Yazid, who is also a senior fellow with the Malay Economic Action Council, said the experience gained from Phase 1 of the e-invoicing process will be helpful for both the LHDN and businesses to better prepare for the coming phases next year.

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The future of money is digital, but is it bitcoin?

 

Don’t be surprised if by the end of the current decade, the e-wallet on your smartphone resembles a multicurrency account. But instead of dealing with commercial banks, you may be a customer of central banks. Several of them, in fact

 

THE idea that much of today’s cash use will shift to digital tokens is neither faddish nor outlandish, as long as you don’t start equating the future of money with bitcoin.

Sure, governments will borrow some elements of the distributed ledger technology behind private cryptocurrencies, but they will very much want to retain control of what circulates as money in their economies. Some will succeed.

Don’t be surprised if by the end of the current decade, the e-wallet on your smartphone resembles a multicurrency account. But instead of dealing with commercial banks, you may be a customer of central banks. Several of them, in fact.

Sound far-fetched? Apart from the Bahamian Sand Dollar, there’s no official online currency in mass circulation yet.

Still, digital yuan pilots are gathering pace as Beijing aims for a possible rollout coinciding with the 2022 Winter Olympics.

Sweden may be the next major nation to follow suit. The Bank of Japan has no immediate plans, but it acknowledges the possibility “of a surge in public demand” for official digital cash going forward.

Even in the US, which is only toying with the concept, digital payment vehicles that don’t rely on traditional bank accounts can increase financial inclusion among cash users, according to a September 2020 paper by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president Raphael Bostic and others. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says a digital dollar is “absolutely worth looking at”.

Once China and the US are both in the fray, virtual money is bound to become a tool for wielding global influence by carving up the world into new currency blocs. That’s because any token will have dual uses outsidethe issuing nation’s borders.

The dollar or yuan that pops up in a phone wallet in Indonesia or India – backed by a solemn promise of taxpayers in the US or China – could be used for buying goods, services or assets internationally.

Just as easily, this new money can end up replacing domestic currency in people’s daily lives. Although this is no different from traditional dollarisation that occurs in countries plagued by inflation and exchange rate volatility, the convenience and accessibility of central bank-issued digital cash could enable “substitution at a faster pace and larger scale,” according to Tao Zhang, a deputy managing director at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). To stay in control of monetary policy, authorities in smaller economies will need their tokens to be attractive in domestic situations.

The goal for bigger nations may be different: China and the US may want to offer add-ons that make the E-CNY or the Fedcoin the preferred choice for foreigners in settling international claims.

An efficient future will be one in which all central banks’ digital currencies are interoperable. In other words, they’ll interact with one another – and with private-sector alternatives including bitcoin, says Sky Guo, the chief executive of Cypherium.

The US enterprise blockchain startup is a member of the Fed’s Faster Payments Council and of the digital monetary institute of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, or OMFIF, a central banking think tank.

Guo is working on the challenges that will arise when sovereign money gets digitised:

How to process high volumes of transactions quickly, cheaply, and with a strong consensus among registries updated automatically across a network? How to give people a sense of privacy in everyday payments, even after the anonymity of cash is lost?

Central banks will have to make choices. Not all smartphones can run advanced virtual machines, effortlessly executing the software code for automated contracts.

Choose the wrong technology, and the unbanked population might once again get excluded. Ditto for overseas remittances, a US$124 trillion-a-year opportunity for tokens to replace an expensive network of correspondent banks moving money by exchanging SWIFT messages.

But it won’t work for small transfers if the computing power to verify transactions in a decentralised network costs too much. The ideal technology doesn’t necessarily have to be a blockchain, but it should be something “lightweight, flexible and capable of working with legacy systems,” Guo says. Above all, the distributed ledger must be transparent.

There will be other obstacles. “A driving force for lobbying against central bank digital currencies has been established among payment processing giants like Paypal, Venmo and Stripe,” Guo tells me. “Fedcoin won’t need these intermediaries to send funds.

As these companies fall victim to innovation, it’ll be interesting to see how they try to protect themselves from disruption.”

Paypal Holdings Inc, which owns the person-to-person service Venmo, contests Guo’s assertion as false. Supporting and distributing central bank digital currencies is part of Paypal’s vision of an inclusive future, CEO Dan Schulman told investors last month.

Former Bank of England governor Mike Carney, who has proposed an alternative to the dollar through a network of central bank digital currencies, recently joined the board of Stripe Inc.

One way to resolve the tension may be to co-opt the private sector. As IMF economists Tobias Adrian and Tommaso ManciniGriffoli have argued, an official virtual currency could be like Apple’s IOS operating system, with commercial banks and e-money providers running apps on top of it.

The Apple Health app may be fine for a lay user; an athlete will want something more sophisticated. Money could go the same way.

Countries will also have to cooperate with one another. Take M-CBDC Bridge. The project for 24/7 cross-border remittances using central bank digital currencies was begun by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Bank of Thailand, but has now been joined by the central bank of the United Arab Emirates and the People’s Bank of China. ─ Bloomberg

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The Future of Money Is Digital, But Is It Bitcoin?

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The future of money is digital but is it Bitcoin?

https://www.deccanherald.com/business/business-news/the-future-of-money-is-digital-but-is-it-bitcoin-958338.html 

The future of money is digital, but is it bitcoin?

 

 

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