Factors underpinning bullish outlook for gold

Shining bright: A saleswoman showing gold bangles at a shop in Kolkata, India. The escalation in geopolitical risks in the Middle East may see the precious metal take centre stage this week. — Reuters

PETALING JAYA: There is a growing bullish outlook for gold as a safe and stable investment given the bias to shift towards monetary easing by major central banks, rising geopolitical tensions, aggressive purchasing by central banks and increasing global debt concerns.

OCBC Bank foreign exchange strategist Christopher Wong said while investors have adjusted expectations regarding the timing and extent of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) initial rate cut, the consensus that a cut is the next step remains firm.

“The prospects of global monetary easing, central banks’ sustained purchase of gold and geopolitical concerns remained the key drivers underpinning gold’s bullish outlook,” he told StarBiz.

Wong noted the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of Canada are expected to enter a phase of monetary easing.

“This synchronous easing potential should continue to boost the appeal of gold,” he added.

However, from a positioning and market dynamics perspective, Wong advised caution due to the risk of a near-term retracement in gold prices.

This caution stems from the rapid increase in gold prices in the short recent period and the currently stretched long positions in gold.

That was evident at last Friday’s price action when it hit a high of US$2,431 a troy ounce before profit-taking saw gold settle at US$2,343 for the week.

The escalation in geopolitical risks in the Middle East over the weekend could see the precious metal take centre stage this trading week as investors look for safe havens.

Wong’s medium-term forecast is for gold to rise to US$2,435 per troy ounce by the first half of 2024.

Meanwhile, SPI Asset Management managing director Stephen Innes pointed out unusual circumstances for gold market makers.

He said despite the 10-year US real yields reaching around 2% – the highest since the Lehman crisis – gold prices have continued to climb, setting record highs in 2024.

“Given that gold doesn’t pay any interest, it should be facing competition and pressure. However, despite this, gold has hit record after record high in 2024 and is far from being down and out,” he said.

Innes pointed out that the primary appeal of gold lies in its role as an inflation hedge.

“If you’re not a gold bug, the yellow metal has one primary appeal: it serves as an inflation hedge,” he added.

With no internal rate of return, he said its value often hinges on its ability to preserve purchasing power in times of rising prices

However, regardless of the inflation trends, Innes expected the Fed to cut rates.

This expectation is supported by the US national debt’s rapid increase, with much of this debt financed through short-term instruments.

“The US national debt is rising by US$1 trillion every 100 days. By the time Americans head to the polls in November, it’s expected to reach US$37 trillion. But most of this is getting funded in less than one-year tenor,” he explained.

Innes further explained that the US Treasury has substantially increased its issuance of treasury bills with maturities of less than one year.

The strategy has decreased the average maturity of its debt, making it more sensitive to short-term interest rate changes.

“As a result, this Treasury Twist encourages the Fed to reduce interest rates to ease front-end volatility,” he added.

Innes suggests that initially, the Fed’s interest rate cuts might not directly target reducing the Treasury’s borrowing costs.

However, he said eventually monetary policy could pivot towards facilitating this fiscal largesse.

Ultimately, Innes expects in the near to medium term, the Fed might find itself compelled to assist in managing the US Treasury’s interest payments by reducing rates – a policy shift that could continue to bolster gold’s appeal.

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Recession unlikely for global economy but challenges linger on

 

THE global macroeconomic picture is still more sluggish than investors would have liked, particularly when viewed from the gross domestic product (GDP) growth perspective for the first half of 2023 (1H23), although it remains a stretch to say the world is heading for a recession.

A quick glance across the Causeway to Singapore sees the city-state registering a 0.5% yearon-year (y-o-y) growth rate for the second quarter of the year (2Q23), extending marginally from the 0.4% expansion it charted for the preceding quarter.

Elsewhere, such as in major markets like the United States, China and the eurozone, economists are of the opinion that growth has been sturdy during 1H23 but stiff hurdles still remain on the horizon.

While acknowledging that global GDP growth has been slower so far in 2023 due to several familiar factors such as higher interest rates and elevated cost pressures, newly appointed Bank Negara governor Datuk Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour is also not expecting the global economy to slip into recession.

He says resilient domestic demand in advanced economies is providing sufficient support, while also anticipating worldwide trade to improve towards the end of 2023.

Most notably, he perceives China’s slower-than-expected recovery to have limited impact on Malaysia’s own economic expansion and improvement.

“Malaysia’s economy is well diversified in terms of products, services and trade partners, which would cushion the Chinese impact,” says Abdul Rasheed.

According to Bernard Aw, chief economist at Singapore’s Coface Services South Asia-pacific Pte Ltd, although the global economy has been resilient year-to-date, growth outlook in the second half remains challenging, not the least from increasing signals of weakening Chinese economic activity.

Forecasting global GDP expansion to be at 2.2% y-o-y for 2023, and anticipating a similar growth rate of 2.3% growth for next year, he says: “We expect Asean GDP growth (2023: 4.3%; 2024: 4.6%) to be generally faster than advanced economies – at 4.3% and 4.6% for 2023 and 2024 respectively – as tourism recovery and domestic demand drives economic activity.”

Continuing subdued external demand for the region would imply that domestic demand has to continue to partially offset some of the slack, Aw, tells Starbizweek.

“However, the challenging economic environment worldwide, relatively high inflation and interest rates means that even growth in domestic consumption and investment may fall short of expectations,” Aw opines.

Commenting on the overall global interest rate environment, he believes that the trend of disinflation would continue into 2H23, mainly driven by lower energy prices, coupled with China’s deflation having fed into lower export prices, which has also moderated global price pressures.

On the flipside, Aw thinks underlying inflation will remain fairly sticky, despite not being severe enough necessarily for central banks to revert to hiking rates.

“Having said that, they will likely maintain the current restrictive interest rates for a longer-than-expected period,” he says.

Earlier in July, it was reported that the United States economy had grown 2.4% y-o-y in 2Q23, up from the 2% it posted for the first three months of the year and bringing 1H23 GDP to a commendable 2.2%.

“The improved expansion rate had been driven by consumer spending, on top of increases in non-residential fixed investment, government spending and inventory growth.

At the same time, China had registered a 6.3% 2Q23 y-o-y GDP growth rate, which was also an improvement from the 4.5% charted in the previous quarter.

The acceleration however was slower than the expected 7.3% forecast by economists on a Reuters poll, dragged back by tepid demand and sinking property prices which has sapped consumer confidence.

On the same note, chief executive of Centre for Market Education Carmelo Ferlito feels that China’s post “zero-covid” recovery has been fragile since the beginning.

“The economy is not an engine to be switched on and off, but rather it is a living emergent order.

“As such, China is paying the price to a degree with its severe, nation-wide lockdowns while it was implementing the zero-covid policy,” he says.

The decelerating growth in China, says Ferlito, is evidenced by the People’s Bank of China unexpectedly cutting a range of key interest rates on Tuesday, which is seen as an emergency move to reignite growth after new data showed the economy has decelerated further last month.

With Chinese officials from its National Bureau of Statistics also suspending reports on youth unemployment, he says the move would deprive investors, economists and businesses of another key data point on the declining health of the world’s second-largest economy.

Divulging more numbers, Ferlito says the twin moves of cutting rates and holding back unemployment data from the Chinese government has coincided with new data showing a slowdown in spending growth by consumers and businesses.

“Concurrently, factory output grew much less than expected, adding to a recent raft of worrying signals. For the first time since February, China’s headline measure of unemployment rose, climbing to 5.3%.

“The jobless rate for people ages 16 to 24, meanwhile, had marched steadily higher for six consecutive months to hit a series of record highs, culminating in a reading of 21.3% in June,” he says.

Ferlito says an economic trichotomy is emerging on the global scene, before adding: “The United States is still fighting inflation, but countries like Germany and Holland are starting to experience technical recession, while China is facing challenges of its own.

“It is that post-lockdown crisis that the CME predicted two years ago.”

Echoing Bank Negara governor Abdul Rasheed, he re-emphasises that it is important to look beyond GDP figures, making his case that if the GDP of a country declines because of a cut in impractical government spending, that would be positive for a country.

Conversely, he argues if GDP growth were to accelerate due to an increase in spending financed by debt, it ultimately would be a bane to the government’s coffers and the national economy.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is predicting a 3% GDP global growth rate for this year and the next, receding from the 3.5% achieved in 2022.

It says the rise in central bank policy rates to stave off inflation has continued to weigh on economic activity, but the good news is that global headline inflation is expected to fall from 8.7% last year to 6.8% in 2023 and 5.2% in 2024.

“The recent resolution of the US debt ceiling stand-off and strong action by authorities to contain turbulence in the US and Swiss banking earlier this year reduced the immediate risks of financial sector turmoil. This moderated adverse risks to the outlook,” the IMF says.

However, it cautions that the balance of risks to global growth remains tilted to the downside, as inflation could remain high and even rise if further shocks occur, including those from an escalation of the Russia-ukraine conflict.

Moreover, the IMF warns that China’s recovery could slow further, partly due to unresolved real estate problems, with negative cross-border spillovers.

On the upside, inflation could fall faster than expected, reducing the need for tight monetary policy, and domestic demand could again prove more resilient

• By keith Hiew keith.hsk@thestar.com.my
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Higher growth projected for 2023

Lee said interest rates may stay elevated for some time and expects Bank Negara to hold the OPR at the current level in 2023 and into 2024.

The commendable first-quarter showing augurs well, says the Socio-economic Research Centre

'STRUCTURAL REFORMS ARE KEY TO SUPPORTING THE ECONOMY AND RINGGIT' - Lee Heng Lee 

KUALA LUMPUR: The combination of declining exports, persistently high core inflation and cautious consumer spending will likely see the economy experiencing a moderation in growth in the second half of the year (2H23).

Despite anticipating a deceleration in economic growth in the upcoming quarters, Socio-economic Research Centre (SERC) has raised its 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection to 4.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) from 4.1% previously, to reflect the strength in the first-quarter (1Q23) economic growth.

The GDP expanded by 5.6% in 1Q23, exceeding the 4.8% growth achieved in 1Q22, thanks to sustained domestic demand underpinned by strong private expenditure and improvement in labour market conditions.

SERC executive director Lee Heng Guie said the robust consumer spending witnessed last year may not be replicated this year due to the high interest rate environment and more cautious consumer spending.

“The cash stimulus has already been spent and the spending boom, such as the ‘revenge spending’ that we saw post-pandemic, has already faded,” he said during SERC’S media briefing on the quarterly economic tracker for 2Q23.

Lee pointed out that the country’s exports had also started to ease as global demand weakens under the strain of high inflation and interest rates.

For 1H23, exports contracted by 4.5% y-o-y and Lee projects exports to decline by between 5% and 7% for the full year on the back of lower demand.

With these factors at play, SERC expects GDP to grow in a range of between 4% and 5% in 2H23, with consumer demand continuing to be the key growth driver in the remaining months of the year.

He added the elevated base effect in 2H22 will present another challenge to the 2H23 GDP performance.

On the overnight policy rate (OPR), Lee believes the current rate of 3% is at an “accommodative and supportive” level for sustainable economic activity.

He said interest rates may stay elevated for some time and expects Bank Negara to hold the OPR at the current level in 2023 and into 2024.

“Any change to the OPR is dependent on how resilient the economy is and how consumer inflation behaves.

“I think the current level is just right, (as) it will not significantly hurt the people.

“Structural reforms are key to supporting the economy and the ringgit.” Lee Heng Guie

“It is still supporting the economy, but does not overburden businesses and the people. Even though central banks are likely to end their rate hike cycles, it does not necessarily imply that they will reduce rates either,” he explained.

Lee expects most central banks to likely keep interest rates at current levels till inflation, both headline and core, subsides to a “comfortable range”.

In the majority of advanced economies, a comfortable range of inflation is around 2%, Lee observed. Although headline inflation has eased in Malaysia, Lee stressed the battle against inflation has not been won.

“This is because subsidy rationalisation is still on the table of the government. The government needs to address that following the state elections to control the budget deficit,” Lee noted.

Given the volatility in crude oil prices, Lee said the current oil subsidy scheme was fiscally unsustainable and would further contribute to deficits.

He added the ringgit had strengthened against the currencies of Japan, China, Australia, Taiwan and India since the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) first federal fund rate hike in March last year.

However, against the greenback, the local unit is among a basket of currencies that have experienced a significant weakening after having declined by about 7.4% since the start of the rate hike cycle.

“Structural reforms are key to supporting the economy and the ringgit,” Lee stressed.

He said the proposed progressive wage model (PWM) plan, which is currently under consideration by the government, is a right step towards a productivity-linked wage system which will foster competitiveness by forging a stronger correlation between wages and productivity.

Lee, however, contends that a more comprehensive and practical analysis should be undertaken on the plan by a tripartite body, which includes representatives from the government, employers and employees.

This is due to the presence of valid concerns and areas of uncertainty within the proposal, such as whether the PWM would be extended to foreign workers and specific sectors.

In keeping the economy resilient, Lee emphasised on the importance of private investment.

He reiterated that private investment not only helped stimulate economic growth, but also generated jobs and thus benefiting both the community and the nation as a whole.

Speaking on the US economy, Lee believes that it is still resilient, citing the strength of its labour market and wage growth as indications. However, he said consumer spending remained robust and asserts inflationary pressure.

“In the United States, headline inflation has not reached the targeted 2% level, while core inflation remains sticky.

“This is something the Fed would be observing. If there is risk of inflation resurgence, it may still continue to increase rates,” Lee said.

Globally, Lee pointed out that the purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector has continued its downtrend, sustaining below the 50-point threshold. The services sector, meanwhile, recorded a slight slowdown in its latest figures.

“We are worried the slowdown in the manufacturing sector has broadened and impacted the services sector,” Lee added.

On world trade volume and industrial production, Lee pointed out that both have been moderating, owing to slower demand. “This is why we saw a decline in exports for regional countries, including Malaysia, recently.”

The Star - StarBiz By KIRENNESH NAIR kirennesh@thestar.com.my 3 Aug 2023

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UK loses its allure and faces big investment gap

 

Big job: Sunak greets Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson outside Number 10 Downing Street. The survey underscores the challenge Sunak’s government has in reviving economic growth with a labour force that has shrunk since the pandemic. — Reuters

 

LONDON: The United Kingdom (UK) has fallen six places in the global economic competitiveness rankings because business leaders have lost confidence in the country, due in part to “government incompetence”.

The annual World Competitiveness Ranking from the International Institute for Management Development saw the UK plunge from 23rd to 29th out of 64 countries.

In a separate analysis, the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) warned that years of underinvestment are holding back growth and harming ambitions to build up green industries.

It estimated the nation would have received an extra £560bil (US$720bil or RM3.3 trillion) in real terms had investment from private firms and the government stayed at the Group of Seven average since 2005.

“The UK is experiencing a debilitating case of investment phobia, and the government’s aversion to investing to seize future opportunities is stopping us from getting out of the growth doom loop we find ourselves in,” said George Dibb, associate director for the economy at IPPR.

The figures underscore the challenge Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government has in reviving economic growth with a labour force that has shrunk since the pandemic.

Political leaders from all parties are concerned about the UK’s stagnating productivity and sticky levels of inflation, which have undermined the confidence of investors both in stocks and in businesses.

In the competitiveness rank, the UK lost ground on all the key indicators, which is a worrying sign for the government, which wants to attract investment to boost growth.

Respondents said the country had become more bureaucratic, the government less efficient, and the workforce less productive.

Denmark held on to the top spot in 2023, and Ireland jumped nine places to second. Switzerland, the Netherlands and Singapore completed the top five.

“The dramatic drop in the survey indicators suggests a systemic pessimism about the future,” Arturo Bris, lead researcher on the rankings and director of the IMD World Competitiveness Centre, said in an interview. “The deterioration in business sentiment says executives are losing confidence in the country.”

More than 6,400 senior executives from across the world were interviewed for the report. Just 3% of respondents said the competency of the government made the UK an attractive destination for investment.

“Government incompetence, poor workplace culture, and restrictive immigration laws were among several reasons why the UK fared badly,” the report said.

The report also found that the UK is becoming increasingly bureaucratic, despite the government’s pledge to use “Brexit freedoms” to cut regulation. The UK fell 12 places in the bureaucracy sub-ranking from 15th to 27th, while France climbed from 44th to 41st, Bris said.

France remained less attractive than the UK, dropping five places to 33rd in the rankings. Germany fell seven places to 22nd.

The survey was conducted between February and May but reflected the political chaos of 2022, a year in which the UK got through three prime ministers and four chancellors.

The struggling economy, with inflation higher and the labour market tighter than other leading industrial nations, will have also affected sentiment badly, Bris said. — Bloomberg

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Is the ringgit weakness permanent?

 

• 
  

It is important to look at the ringgit weakness from a more holistic perspective.

 

Global currency: the reason the us dollar remains in demand in spite of its national debt and endless printing of money is because the value of the dollar is backed by the us government, its military strength and technological advancement. — reuters

WITH the World Health Organisation declaring Covid-19 no longer a global health emergency and countries opening their borders, we have seen a resurgence in the tourism industry.

Airlines such as Singapore Airlines have declared a record high quarterly profit of S$2.16bil (Rm7.37bil) in its 76-year history.

People are finally travelling again, be it for work or leisure. Yet, the irony of it is the weakness of our local currency.

This has led to many lamenting across social media about our foreign-exchange weakness and the voice of discontent has been growing by the day.

People are bewildered because our underlying economy remains resilient and there are no signs that we are heading anywhere close to a recession.

Even after Bank Negara embarked on a pre-emptive rate hike of the overnight policy rate (OPR) surprising the market, it couldn’t stymie the continued weakness of the ringgit.

So, what is happening?

Factors affecting a currency

In the study of Economics 101, foreign currency is parked under the chapter of macroeconomics.

This means that a currency’s movement is determined pretty much by macroeconomic factors such as inflation, fiscal policy, employment levels, national income and international trade.

Hence, it is impossible to pinpoint our currency’s prolonged weakness on a single reason.

I have heard all sorts of talk in the coffeeshop, including political instability, increasing fiscal deficit, shrinking current account surplus, the US debt ceiling crisis, the weakening oil price and looming recession, among others.

The above-mentioned factors all play a part in contributing to the weakness and none can stand alone to be deemed as the root cause of the issue.

Otherwise, it would be a rather easy fix.

As everything is intertwined and linked, it is important to look at our ringgit weakness from a more holistic perspective.

Exactly 10 years ago, the ringgit’s strength peaked in January 2013 at RM2.96 against one US dollar as the United States was undergoing large-scale quantitative easing to dig itself out of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

Another reason was because the Brent oil price hit a high of US$125 per barrel, record levels at the same period.

There were many reasons that gave confidence to boost the ringgit’s performance as Malaysia was an oil exporter with large infrastructure projects being rolled out by the government of the day.

Even the property market was booming with many foreign buyers and real estate developers venturing into our local markets.

It all went downhill after the 1Malaysia Development Bhd scandal surfaced and the national debt ballooned to astronomical levels with little to show for.

With the oil price correcting to record low levels and large amounts of government allocations being used to defray interest expenses on the debts, this expanded our fiscal deficit.

It all comes down to demand

We often hear about the emphasis on foreign direct investment (FDI).

This is because with FDI, it will promote employment, transfer of skills and business opportunity, among others.

Additionally, from an economic standpoint, FDI increases the money supply and inadvertently the demand for the ringgit.

When FDI falls, demand falls. From the data gathered by the Investment, Trade and Industry Industry, the problem is with domestic direct investment (DDI) rather than FDI.

For the past decade, DDI has been a straight line downward trend.

This effectively means local businesses are not reinvesting their profits or expanding locally as much.

To me, it is a bigger indicator that whatever funds or profits from local businesses are being moved towards the current account, savings account or worst, foreign outflow.

There is little to no multiplier effect and if it is an outflow, it will further reduce the demand for the ringgit and in turn weaken the currency.

Tourism is another aspect that is important to an economy.

Apart from the spillover effect of tourism spending, it is the positive carry that helps with the currency’s strength.

If tourism activity in our country picks up, naturally, there will be more need for the ringgit and in turn leading to its strengthening.

Thailand is good example of a successful tourism nation where tourism is the third-largest economic activity contributing to 20% of the gross domestic product for the country and it is only behind the two key sectors, namely, agriculture and industry.

If we look at the Thai baht performance against the ringgit, we

can see its continued strength from RM1 to 9.61 baht to RM1 to 7.52 baht.

Essentially, all three sectors of Thailand – agriculture, industry and tourism – have been growing in the past decade, which, in turn, increased the demand for their currency.

Continued downtrend

Many are very worried that this downtrend of the ringgit will continue to persist in the years to come.

If we look at what has happened historically, there are of course reasons to be worried.

In my conversation with high-networth clients, their number one concern is always inflation eroding the value of their money.

The second worry is the weakness in the foreign exchange (forex) that erodes the global monetary value of their savings.

Due to this fear, it is easy for private bankers to market foreign products or funds to these clients regardless of the returns.

A client once told me, “Even if I move my savings to Singapore and the stock market or investments do not perform, at the very least the forex carry alone would deliver 40% return in the span of 10 years.”

An indirect measure of the economy is the strength of its currency.

If everyone wants your currency to be their reserve currency, it is likely that your country’s economy is strong and healthy and vice versa.

No matter how we improve the fundamentals of our economy, there will always be a difference between a developed economy and of those developing economies.

The reason the US dollar remains in demand in spite of its national debt and endless printing of money is because the value of the dollar is backed by the US government, its military strength and technological advancement.

China is also pushing for the internationalisation of the yuan and as the second largest economic powerhouse in the world, there are merits to be a highly sought-after currency.

The Singapore dollar’s value manifests in it being an anchor on stability, a haven and its function as an international entrepot.

For the ringgit, its value is probably largely still associated with commodities exporting nation.

While our exports and trade have always been a fixture, more must be done to reflect this value to the world.

Having a strong currency which is in demand is a powerful tool that can be used to a country’s advantage, especially when it comes to business and geopolitical negotiations.

There are many challenges that the government must overcome before we can turn the old economy around and upgrade it to a new model forward.

I remain optimistic about the potential of the country and the talent of this young nation to turn things around.

If we look at how blessed our country is, rich with natural resources, low population density per habitable land area, free from natural disaster, etc, the only thing impeding the progress is good governance and professional management.

To believe a new government can change this overnight (seven months to be precise) is being a tad too optimistic.

More time is needed to restructure the troubles of the past.

If we foster a healthy environment for the SMES to grow, promote food security and self-sufficiency and manage our natural resources prudently, we can become a strong economy in Asean.

A stable currency is paramount for an economy and if we improve investments and reinvestments in the country, the ringgit’s weakness is not permanent.

 By Ng zhu hann 

CEO & Founder, Tradeview Capital | Founder, Hann Partnership | Author, Once Upon A Time In Bursa | Columnist, StarBiz & Nanyang Siang Pau|

 

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