Prepared for Trump’s final madness, hysteria on China policy

  

More than two dozen psychiatrists Think Trump is dangerous and unfit for office

The Chinese are making physical and psychological preparations for a US-initiated war

US President Donald Trump arrives to speak in the Brady Briefing Room at the White House, in Washington DC on Thursday. Democrat Joe Biden is leading Trump in the race for the 270 electoral votes as of press time. Photo: AFP
 

 China has been prepared for a "final act of the madness" from the Trump administration and its staged hysteria on China-related issues, as it is highly likely that the incumbent US president will take much more extreme measures on issues such as the South China Sea, the island of Taiwan and China's high tech sector, the moves which are also seen as "setting obstacles" for Biden in his foreign policies, experts said.

After imposing new restrictions on US investment in 31 Chinese companies and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's remarks of denying Taiwan island is part of China, US President Trump will enact a series of hardline policies during his final 10 weeks, including a crackdown on China over so-called "forced labor" in Xinjiang, as well as sanctions on officials and companies with connections to Hong Kong, according to US news site axios.com.

The move also aims to cement Trump's legacy on China, the media report said, citing senior US officials. His political legacies on China will be widely known for its toughness including the launching of a yearlong trade war, leading the global suppression against Chinese high tech companies, smear and blame campaign over the coronavirus epidemic, and consulate closure. During his four-year tenure, the China and US relationship has hit its lowest point in decades, while his all-out anti-China stance has been supported by GOP and his voters.

"Being tough on China is seen as Trump's diplomatic achievement, which has been widely applauded in the US. Any turnaround at the point would be seen as a 'slap in the face' and it's now his final chance to play this card to the maximum extent," Xin Qiang, deputy director of the Center for US Studies at Fudan University, told the Global Times on Monday.

While Trump refused to concede the US election, tweeting that Biden "won" but that the election was rigged, thousands of his supporters protested in downtown Washington DC over the weekend, according to media reports. They also chanted Trump's campaign slogan such as "Make America Great Again" as the number of COVID-19 cases in the country crossed the 11-million mark, "reaching yet another grim milestone," some reports said.

Some Chinese experts believed that Trump does not want to disappoint his supporters, and continuing to be tough on China-related matter is one of his strategies, which has also been echoed by some of his "anti-China" group including Pompeo, FBI Director Christopher Wray, Attorney General William Barr and National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien.

China urged the US to manage the differences on the basis of mutual respect and explore cooperation in reciprocity but will firmly defend its own interests of sovereignty, security and development, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said on reports about Trump will come up with final measures targeting Chinese firms and human rights issues.

A healthy and stable China-US relationship is in line with the fundamental interests of people from the two countries, which also echoes common expectation of the international community, Zhao said.

The Trump administration is also expected to stage its final hysteria toward China by coming up with measures to stir up conflicts in the South China Sea, the Taiwan island, and may launch a crackdown on more Chinese scientific and research staff, Xin predicted. "It's also likely that the US will shut down all the Confucius Institutes in America, casting shadow over future people-to-people exchanges between China and the US," he said.

A trap for Biden?

Diao Daming, an associate professor at the Renmin University of China in Beijing, told the Global Times on Monday that "Although Trump is becoming a lame duck president in his last days in the White House, he can still create more legacies by signing executive orders, although the executive organs under different departments are unlikely to cooperate."

"Trump is actually setting a trap or planting a landmine for the Biden administration," Shen Yi, a professor at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs of Fudan University, told the Global Times.

According to the White House website, "the Executive Order on Addressing the Threat from Securities Investments that Finance Communist Chinese Military Companies" that the Trump administration issued on Thursday will take effect on January 11.

"The date tells everything. By that time, the election will be concluded with a final result, so Trump is throwing a problem into the hands of Biden - if Biden cancels the order, Trump can assert Biden is a Panda Hugger [a Western politician who is being supportive to China]; if Biden keeps the executive order, Trump believes that China would be disappointed and hit back, so the China-US ties will remain tense or even get worse," Shen said on Monday.

Before the election, Trump made great efforts to stigmatize China as he thought the COVID-19 epidemic situation was the biggest obstacle to his reelection, and after the election, he has become more angry as he believes it was the coronavirus that made him lose the reelection, so he has directed his anger toward China again, Diao said.

Shen said that before the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump made many friendly remarks about China and the Chinese national leader, "but he is such an emotional and unpredictable person that we can't use a normal person's mentality to judge him. The current hostility toward China and the friendly remarks of the past are all the reflections of his unusual personality."

Joe Biden in Beijing on December 5, 2013 Photo: AFP  

 A long fight

Between retaliation against US provocations and de-escalation of tensions with the US, Chinese analysts said China needs to be careful and cautious, and there will be no surprises as long as China is fully prepared for a long fight with the US whether it is governed by Trump or Biden.

On one hand, China needs to precisely retaliate against the Trump administration and make it feel the pain if the provocations harm Chinese core interests; on the other hand, if the provocations are just bluffing with no concrete damage, China can ignore them and focus on communicating with Biden's team to minimize the damages, Diao noted.

"The current situation is even more complicated than the time before and during the election," because sometimes it will be hard to tell which force is behind the new provocations and offensives between November and January, Diao said, "so China's retaliation against the US should precisely hit the Trump administration, and minimize the difficulty for fixing the bilateral ties with the next administration."

The US military is unlikely to support the "final madness" of the Trump administration as they know the risks of a war with China, but in the fields of trade and investment, Trump is likely to leave some legacies, and the Biden administration would also likely inherit these legacies and use them as leverage to bargain with China, Diao further noted.

Shen said that "we can't expect Biden to cancel all policies made by the Trump administration. That would be na?ve. China is fully prepared for more conflicts with the new administration. The Biden administration will only fix Trump's policies if it finds them damaging US interests. Being prepared for a long fight is always the wise choice for China."

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US technology sector faces triple threat

Uncertainty over the future of US-China economic relations has derailed the once high-flying global equity market, which rose almost 15 per cent in the January-April period.

Clive McDonnell, head of Equity Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, looks at the causes behind the decline.

The technology sector, now facing challenges on a number of fronts, is supposedly the main cause behind the decline.

While President Trump’s policies get blamed for a lot of events impacting global equity markets, he is probably less responsible for the upset in the technology sector than many would have you think.

There are three primary challenges facing the US technology sector:

      1. The sector’s high overseas revenue share: over 60% of total revenue comes from abroad.

      2. The threat of regulation on accessing and using personal data.

      3. Monopoly powers and the risk of an antitrust investigation.

Let’s consider each factor. US economic growth appears resilient in the face of weaker growth prospects in the euro zone and emerging markets.

However, since US technology companies generate more than 60% of their revenue from overseas, they are acutely sensitive to slower growth prospects outside the US. In the past, they have been able to offset slower growth in the euro zone with robust growth in emerging markets led by China.

The next downturn may witness slower growth in both regions, which would leave US technology companies exposed relative to US banks and utilities which have the lowest overseas revenue exposure amongst US companies.

Additionally, there is a risk that China responds in kind to the US President’s targeting of Chinese technology companies. There is also a risk that US dollar strength creates a negative effect on US technology sector earnings once overseas revenue is converted into US dollars.

The threat of regulation on accessing and use of personal data looms large for technology companies, particularly those in the social media space. Europe has been at the forefront of regulating use of personal data via the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).

These regulations changed the balance of power between individuals and companies over the use of personal data. The rules give EU citizens more control over their personal data held by companies and the right to have their data removed from databases, the so-called “right to be forgotten” law.

The challenge for US companies is these rules cover their processing of personal data in Europe, regardless of the residential location of the individual generating the data.  

The rules give EU citizens more control over their personal data held by companies and the right to have their data removed from databases.

Similar to the long arm of US financial regulators – which impact banks regardless of where they are incorporated once they engage in US dollar transactions – European rules on personal data are impacting US technology companies in ways that are not covered by domestic laws.

The central business challenge for US technology companies, in particular those in the social media sector, is their business models are built on free access to consumer data in exchange for free use of their software, including search, email and productivity tools, such as those available on Google Drive.

If these companies lose unfettered access to personal data, they would likely start charging consumers for use of the same software.

This, in turn, will have a significant impact on their advertising revenues, as the precision they have been able to offer companies targeting customers would decline. No doubt their business models would evolve, but this could be at the cost of lower net margins relative to the near-20% margins they currently enjoy.

Finally, the perceived monopoly power of some of the sector’s leaders and the resultant risk US technology companies face from antitrust investigations is probably the biggest risk to the sector.

The definition of monopoly power in the US, focusing on the short-term price impact on consumers from company actions, has been unchanged for over 40 years.

Specifically, if company actions lead to higher prices, it could be designated as a monopoly (and importantly, the reverse also applies). This is relevant for technology companies as many have helped to lower prices for consumers.

The definition of monopoly power is changing. This is led by Lina Khan, a Legal Fellow at the Federal Trade Commission and an academic Fellow at Columbia Law School.

In a paper, entitled “Amazon’s Antitrust Paradox (1)”, she challenged the current interpretation of antitrust law which is designed to curb monopolistic power. She proposed that lower prices were not necessarily good for consumers if prices were used as a tool to choke off competition and eventually restrict consumer choice.

The primary tool available to technology companies to manipulate consumer choices (and some would say restrict competition) is their search algorithm.

Whenever a social media or e-commerce company implements a change to their search algorithm, the ensuing uproar amongst its users and customers is a measure of the importance this tool has to drive sales and choices for consumers.

The search algorithm assumes unique power once a platform becomes dominant in an industry and consumers no longer look at other platforms as they believe that their chosen one offers them all the choice they need.

The risk is: their choices are being determined by companies who pay more to appear higher up the search results than those which pay less, even though the latter companies may offer lower prices.

If regulators’ definition of monopoly power evolves, as Lina Khan suggests, there is a risk of antitrust investigations against US technology sector leaders, with penalties ranging from fines to reversal of prior acquisitions.

The challenges facing the US technology sector have converged at a time when valuations are elevated and earnings growth has weakened.

They are shining a light on their business model, which can undoubtedly evolve, but may require changes that the market is not currently anticipating.

Clive McDonnell is Head of Equity Strategy at Standard Chartered Private Bank.

The views expresssed here are entirely the writer’s own.

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Malware, ransomware attacks are a growing threat to computer and mobile phone!

FORGET pickpockets or thieves. The biggest threat to your smartphone now is kidnappers cyber “kidnappers” that is, with their Ransomware.

As the name suggests, ransomware is a malware (malicious software) that will keep your phone or computer a prisoner until you pay a ransom. Only when the specified amount of money is paid will you be able to “free” your device and access data or information.

Although it is not new ransomware is said to originate from Russia in 2005 and has been attacking many computers worldwide since the Symantec Corp Internet Security Threat Report (ISTR) Volume 18 revealed that ransomware is emerging as the malware of choice because of its high profitability for attackers.

Luckily, says Symantec Malaysia's senior technical consultant David Rajoo, to his knowledge, no cases have been reported here yet.

“However, as the worldwide web has no boundaries and with increasing broadband penetration and as more users are accessing the Internet, Malaysia is certainly exposed to the Ransomware threats,” he says.

Infected machines display messages which demand payment in order to restore functionality. - David Rajoo

Rajoo points out that awareness is key to combat ransomware threat.

As the report highlights, attackers are using deceptive links and poisoned websites to infect unsuspecting users with malicious software and lock their machines.

“The attackers, many of them cybercriminal organisations, then hold users' machines for ransom. Infected machines display messages which demand payment in order to restore functionality,” he tells.

Recent attacks have also displayed images that impersonate law enforcement.

Consumers on the Android platform are most vulnerable to ransomware and mobile threats, says the report.

Last year, mobile malware increased by 58%, and 32% of all mobile threats attempted to steal information, such as e-mail addresses and phone numbers.

Although Android has fewer vulnerabilities, its threats are higher than any other mobile operating system. Its open platform and the multiple distribution methods available to distribute malicious apps make it the go-to platform for attackers, adds the report.

With malware growing sophisticated every day, Rajoo adds, a mix of intelligence-based technologies can provide optimal security to stop new and unknown malware.

To avoid getting infected, ensure the device's software and anti-virus definitions are up to date, and avoid suspicious sites, Rajoo advises.

“We also advise users to use more than antivirus for protection. We recommend using advanced reputation security which provides layered defence. Use more than just Antivirus use a full functionality solution which includes heuristics, reputation-based, behaviour-based and other technologies,” he says, stressing that a key strategy is to fend off threats before they infiltrate your computer system.

Symantec Malaysia's Systems Engineering director Nigel Tan agrees that stopping the threat at the gate is important as cyber criminals continue to devise new ways to steal information from organisations of all sizes.

Staying ahead of attacks

“The sophistication of attacks coupled with today's information technology complexities require organisations in Malaysia and globally to remain proactive and use “defence in depth” security measures to stay ahead of attacks,” he added.

According to the annual ISTR which analyses the year in global threat activity, Malaysia was ranked 35th on its global Internet security threat profile in 2012.

As it highlights, there was a 42% surge last year in targeted attacks globally compared with the prior year.

These targeted cyberespionage attacks, designed to steal intellectual property, are increasingly hitting the manufacturing sector as well as small businesses, which are the target of 31% of these attacks.

Small businesses are attractive targets themselves and a way in to ultimately reach larger companies via “watering hole” techniques.

In a watering hole attack scenario, attackers compromise a carefully selected website by inserting an exploit resulting in malware infection. Through the compromised website, the attackers will target victims who visit the compromised site and take advantage of their software vulnerabilities to drop malware that will allow them to access sensitive data and take control of the vulnerable system.

As Symantec alerts, 61% of malicious websites are actually legitimate websites that have been compromised and infected with malicious code.

Business, technology and shopping websites were among the top five types of websites hosting infections. The shift of focus from government websites indicates an increase in attacks targeting the supply chain cybercriminals find these contractors and subcontractors susceptible to attacks and they are often in possession of valuable intellectual property.

The attack uses the security weaknesses in the supply chain specifically the small businesses to gain access into larger and more secured companies, adds Symantec.

Case in point is that those in sales became the most commonly targeted victims last year.

Another growing source of infections on websites is malvertisements this is when criminals buy advertising space on legitimate websites and use it to hide their attack code.

Tan urges organisations to continue to take proactive initiatives to secure and manage critical information from a variety of security risks, especially targeted attacks in the manufacturing and small business sectors, mobile malware, and phishing threats.

By HARIATI AZIZAN sunday@thestar.com

Smartphone users exposed to threats from cyber hackers

KUALA LUMPUR: About seven million smartphone users nationwide are exposed to threats from cyber hackers who make use of their gadgets to steal their money.

Bukit Aman Commercial Crime Investigation Department director Datuk Syed Ismail Syed Azizan said lack of awareness on the risks of smartphone security made users easy victims.

“The modus operandi is to send short messaging service known as Trojans to users who unknowingly will be charged when replying to the SMS,” he said. “Consumers only realise this when they are slapped with high phone bills although they did not use the service.”

The scam was detected via applications such as “Type-On” which, when downloaded, would cause smartphone users to bear the cost although they had uninstalled the application.

Lookout Mobile Security was quoted by AFP as saying that worldwide, users lost millions of dollars last year via malware and toll fraud that attacked smartphone users for accessing applications from unofficial sources rather than trusted ones such as Apple or Google online shops.

Syed Ismail said police statistics recorded from January to September this year showed that losses incurred via SMS or phone calls totalled RM21.8mil.

The hackers target users of Internet banking or phone banking by hacking and abusing the network, including the online purchases of goods.

Online purchases recorded the highest losses of RM14.5mil (1,298 cases) followed by SMS or phone call with RM3.4mil (412 cases), hacking (RM3.3mil via 24 cases) and Internet banking and phone banking with RM590,000 (74 cases). - Bernama

See opportunities in adversity

ON YOUR OWN By TAN THIAM HOCK

I HAVE been having fun. Good fun. Five trips in the last 30 days. Holidays, business meetings, visiting my kids and watching the Il Divo concert in Jakarta with my wife. So my apologies to the readers who wrote in and have not received any reply from me.

One of my trips was to visit our supplier in Bangkok. I was pleasantly surprised when he said that his company did very well last year despite the tsunami and earthquake in Japan and the three-month flooding of Bangkok. He picked up additional Japanese customers who lost their regular suppliers because of the tsunami. Luckily for him, his factory and surroundings were not flooded, so again he picked up new customers.

No businessmen can predict how natural disasters will affect their business. There is a major element of luck. Good luck or bad luck.

I was also amazed that his company has been growing steadily through the years of continuous political turmoil in Thailand, frequent change of governments, street demonstrations, riots and street bombings. Still, it is business as usual. Especially for tourism. Their airport was crowded and immigration was horrendous. In comparison, the KLIA felt like a ghost town.

Over dinner, he explained that except for southern Thailand, the rest of the country has a homogenous society. No racial or religious issues. Only corrupted and power crazy politicians. I felt comforted. We are not alone.

All Thai companies and citizens have equal opportunity in business and education. So generally, entrepreneur wannabes can participate openly in almost every sector of the economy without government interference. Except for those businesses hijacked by politicians and their cronies. I comforted him. They are not alone

I have always joked with my Singaporean business friends that Malaysian entrepreneurs are much, much more creative than theirs. We have to be sensitive to additional external issues like religion, race and government/political business units. And only then, we start worrying about our business at hand and our real business competitors.

Singaporean entrepreneurs just have to be hardworking and efficient and they will make a good living. How boring it must be for them.

My good friend from the Philippines has gone through more hardships in his business life than all the other Asean counterparts combined. Political upheavals, natural disasters, warlords, gangsters, corrupted armies and an economically poor consumer population. But he is always wearing a smile on his face and treats each setback as a natural unavoidable event. As a devout Catholic, he feels God is always testing him.

To all those entrepreneur wannabes in Malaysia who are not sure of the type of business that you want to invest in, my advice is to go into a business that is not dominated by GLCs, a business that will not create issues with religion or race, and avoid investing in potentially natural disaster areas.

You will be stupid if you invest in residential and industrial properties in flood-prone areas or near toxic waste plants. God forbid if there is a major flood or an accident in an industrial toxic waste plant, you will be an unlucky owner of properties in a ghost town.

It is important that entrepreneurs understand the political and economic environment that your business operates in. This will greatly reduce the element of luck in your strategic planning and give you more certainty in forecasting the trend. Like my Asean friends have demonstrated, there is always opportunities in adversity or unnatural events.

For those who are looking for business opportunities, the coming 13th General Election is a big pot of gold, just in case you are not aware of it. Media companies are rubbing their hands in glee at the potential additional advertising revenue forthcoming.

Printers of outdoor materials and posters are preparing their raw materials due to short order cycles. Soft-drink and mineral water suppliers are salivating at the sharp spike in consumption. Caterers will make a killing handling all the kenduris. Coffee shops in sleepy towns, hotels and motels are prepared to raise prices at a moment's notice.

Then there is the cash handouts to the general population. Consumption of economic goods will increase substantially. Money supply in the economy will double. The general election is expected to contribute an additional 1% to our GDP growth, a point I am sure that has been accrued in our Economic Transformation Programme.

Malaysian entrepreneurs must learn from our Asean counterparts. See opportunities in adversity. Prepare for natural disasters or unnatural events. Stay calm when your environment is in crisis. Trust your luck. And you will do just fine.

● The writer is an entrepreneur who hopes to shares his experience and insights with readers who want to take that giant leap into business but are not sure if they should. Email him at thtan@alliancecosmetics.com