Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (L) poses during the family photo at the 15th ASEAN-China summit meeting at the Peace Palace in Phnom Penh, November 19, 2012. Also in the picture is Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen. REUTERS/ Samrang Pring
PHNOM PENH/BEIJING (Reuters) - When U.S. President Barack Obama and more than a dozen leaders arrived in Cambodia for a regional summit meeting this week, only one of them was feted with banners strung from the venue gates.
"Welcome Prime Minister Wen Jiabao!" one proclaimed. "Long live the People's Republic of China!" read another.
As the leaders left, the green-and-white banners were still festooned outside Phnom Penh's Peace Palace, a fitting reminder of China's powerful and growing clout as Beijing uses its influence - and money - to win friends and frustrate those uneasy about its sweeping territorial claims and rising military strength.
"Some states are easily swayed by money. If they see cash, they easily throw away their principles," said one Asian diplomat at the East Asia Summit, which included heads of state from 10 Southeast Asia countries and counterparts from the United States, China, Japan and other Asia-Pacific nations.
"China has been throwing its weight around and buying the loyalties of some Asian states."
A prime example is Cambodia, whose prime minister, Hun Sen, helped China to notch up a succession of diplomatic victories at the summit. China stalled debate on a resolution of maritime disputes in the South China Sea, rebutted attempts by Southeast Asian nations to start formal talks on the issue and avoided any rebuke from Obama over territorial ambitions. Commentators declared China a clear summit winner.
A closing statement by Hun Sen, this year's chair of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), made no mention of the South China Sea, another victory for China's attempts to prevent multilateral talks on the dispute.
China has poured investments and loans into Cambodia in recent years, becoming its biggest trade partner and bilateral creditor. Cambodia's debt to China now totals at least $4.7 billion, about a third of its economy.
The price of that largesse has become clear this year, say analysts, as Cambodia has used its powers as ASEAN chair to restrict debate over the vexed issue of China's maritime claims, dividing the group and infuriating U.S. ally the Philippines.
The 45-year-old ASEAN group has been built on a foundation of unanimity and unity, but that has unravelled as it struggles to cope with its biggest security challenge. In July, a meeting of the region's foreign ministers broke down in unprecedented acrimony and failed to agree a communique for the first time.
This week's ASEAN meetings again deteriorated into bad-tempered sniping and came close to a breakdown when Hun Sen adopted a draft statement saying there was a consensus not to "internationalise" the South China Sea dispute beyond ASEAN and China.
The Philippines, which sees its alliance with the United States as a crucial check on China's claims at a time when Washington is shifting its military focus back to Asia, made a formal protest to Cambodia and succeeded in having that clause removed from the final statement.
China then poked fun at Manila's assertion that there had been no consensus. Eight out of 10 leaders had agreed not to internationalise the dispute, meaning there was a consensus, said Qin Gang, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman.
"I suggest that people when attending the EAS (East Asia Summit) meetings have to be very good at mathematics," he said.
"That's 10 minus two, so which is bigger?"
NAVAL BUILDUP
Beijing claims a vast U-shaped line around the South China Sea that brushes up against the coasts of the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia. The area is thought to hold vast, untapped reserves of oil and natural gas, and naval flashpoints between Chinese vessels and the Philippine and Vietnamese navy have become increasingly common.
Hopes for a diplomatic resolution within the ASEAN-China framework look bleak in the next two years as tiny Brunei and then Myanmar take up the chairmanship of the group.
Cambodia, like fellow "Mekong" countries Laos and Myanmar, has been rapidly pulled into China's economic orbit through rocketing trade and investment ties.
It has become customary for Chinese officials to arrive in Cambodia bearing "gifts", such as the $100 million investment that Wen announced on his arrival this week to build the emerging country's biggest cement plant. China has moved nimbly to set up free trade deals with Southeast Asia nations and has played a dominant role in financing and building big infrastructure projects in Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar.
After the summit, Wen visited Thailand where he signed an understanding to buy rice, which should strongly lift Beijing's standing with a government that is a close ally of the United States. Bangkok has built up record stockpiles of 14 million tonnes of milled rice after a populist programme to pay farmers more for their crops made exports unprofitable.
If diplomatic efforts stall, China's options to back its claims with force if needed are steadily growing with a military budget that outstrips the combined spending of Southeast Asia.
As China ushered in a new generation of leaders this month, outgoing President Hu Jintao made a pointed reference to strengthening China's naval forces, protecting maritime interests, and the need to "win local war."
"We should make active planning for the use of military forces in peacetime, expand and intensify military preparedness, and enhance the capability to accomplish a wide range of military tasks, the most important of which is to win local war in an information age," Hu said.
Besides the South China Sea, China is embroiled in a dispute with Japan, also a close U.S. ally, over islands in the East China Sea.
China's stance is that it is not trying to become an offensive naval power, but wants to secure its energy imports and boost development of maritime natural resources, which are expected to represent 10 percent of its economy by 2015.
But it is also wary of being encircled as the United States refocuses its military clout on Asia in what Obama has called a "pivot" back to the region as wars in the Middle East wind down.
"It is absolutely (a buildup)," said Ruan Zongze, deputy director of the China Institute of International Studies, the think-tank of the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
"No matter what kind of narrative you use, the reality is that America in the past three years has been putting greater emphasis or focus on the west Pacific. That raises a lot of questions for China."
China launched its first aircraft carrier in September, increasing its ability to project forces deeper into "blue-water" maritime territory. Bought from Ukraine ostensibly to use as a floating casino, the Chinese navy spent years refurbishing the carrier, which is undergoing sea trials. It also test-flew two types of stealth fighters this year, the second one last month - a smaller, more maneuverable model believed to be designed to be deployed on an aircraft carrier.
"China has ambitions to become the premier military power among its regional peers, and a serious threat to U.S. maritime primacy in the Asia Pacific," said Sam Roggeveen, an Asian defence analyst with the Lowy Institute in Sydney.
Roggeveen added that if China were to deploy more than one carrier and equip them with high-performance stealth fighters, "it would become the pre-eminent regional maritime power, with the ability to coerce neighbours in disputes in which the U.S. prefers not to get involved".
By Stuart Grudgings and Terril Yue Jones
(Additional reporting by James Pomfret and Manuel Mogato in PHNOM PENH; Editing by Jason Szep and Raju Gopalakrishnan)
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Showing posts with label Wen Jiabao. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wen Jiabao. Show all posts
Sunday 25 November 2012
Saturday 14 July 2012
'No’ to property price speculation
Excessive Asian property price appreciation may be over for now
PEOPLE generally like to invest in properties. It is easy to understand you buy a house. It is a simple, tangible investment. It is long term and financing is usually easy. Most people tend to have positive experience after buying their first home, which normally would appreciate after a decade or two.
Simple things can morph into complex series of events. Buying houses may turn to speculation, massive speculations become a boom and bust “housing bubble”; banks may collapse from huge bad mortgages, a financial crisis and then a government bailout ensues, an economic recession soon follows. These events sound a little too familiar.
Low interest rates, massive liquidity and investors shying away from volatile stock markets, are some of the many reasons cited for Asia's potential property bubbles today. From 2009 or so, private residential properties have seen large average price jumps in China (Beijing +100%), Hong Kong (+53%), Singapore (+53%), Malaysia (+21%) and Indonesia (Jakarta +14%).
Asian policy makers have taken many pre-emptive actions to control this property “bubble”, usually by regulating excessive speculation and guiding mortgage lending by banks. In Hong Kong, policy makers try to discourage speculators by raising special stamp duty for short term resale of residential property (5% to 15%, depending on holding period); in Singapore, measures include a hefty extra 10% stamp duty on purchase price for non-residents. In Indonesia, there's a maximum 70% property loan limit.
Recent data suggest such curbs did not slow the Hong Kong or Singapore property markets for long. Transactions or prices picked up again recently. We believe however, if Asian property prices rise rapidly again, tougher curbs may be in the cards. The slew of increasingly tough measures in China the last 18 months is seen as an example. An avalanche of curbs eventually made China home prices dip for eight straight months up to May 2012.
Historically, financial crisis in many countries (Japan 1991, US 2008 and Spain today) are caused by property price bubbles bursting hurting consumers, banks and businesses. Therefore, it makes a lot of sense to have responsible lending.
Asian policy makers, having learned bitter lessons from the 1997/98 financial crisis, sees pre-emptive measures to control any potential property “bubble” as crucial to avoid banking problems or crises.
Governments in Asia on the one hand want to curb excessive price speculation, while at the same time, know that home ownership is a very important (and personal) issue notwithstanding it is also a big contributor to domestic economic growth.
What Asian policy makers aim to do is best captured in a Chinese phrase, which literally means “in peace time, think about danger”. The best time to prepare for rainy days is when the sun is shining it's a lot harder to do so in a storm.
The biggest challenge for policy makers is to develop a sustainable property sector and promote home ownership (especially first time house buyers) without boom and bust. That includes the balancing act of curbing property speculation without inadvertently pulling the brakes on the economy.
Some Malaysian non-listed property developers I met recently have expressed deep concerns that sales of their high-end, new condominiums are lagging, because buyers find it difficult to get financing.
Bank Negara's curbs on lending for third property mortgage (maximum 70% financing) and stricter banks credit standards appears to be working for now.
The intent of Bank Negara, we believe, is to nip excessive property price speculation in the bud. Current property curbs ensure at least prices don't run up too fast and banks may allocate more funds to first time house buyers rather than investors or speculators.
Interestingly, property developers who don't complain about curbs are often the established ones who prefer sustainable growth, rather than a boom and bust property market. I believe many property companies have learnt not to borrow too much.
Tellingly, the top five Malaysian listed property developers have reduced average net gearing from 70% in 2000 to 18% in 2011, (Indonesian and Thai property developers reduced from 612% to 9% and 255% to 84% respectively). Asean property companies today are undoubtedly less leveraged with healthier cash reserves.
That's one reason why most property developers in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand for example, are not rushing to unload properties at massive discounts, even as property curbs bite into sales. They know current measures are temporary and consumer demand is likely robust for quite some time.
Asian consumers are financially better off today. Healthy employment and wage increases across Asia means consumer demand for housing will likely stay buoyant and house prices, like in normal times, will gradually rise over time.
However, the intriguing impact on Asian properties today given the mind set and propensity of policy makers to pre-empt any potential property bubble I believe periods of excessive property price appreciation in many Asian property markets may already be over for now.
I believe policy maker's curbs on excessive price speculation is a right policy. Even if there's short-term pain, it will likely make Asian economic growth sustainable for the longer term in these difficult times.
Teoh Kok Lin is the founder and chief investment officer of Singular Asset Management Sdn Bhd.
PEOPLE generally like to invest in properties. It is easy to understand you buy a house. It is a simple, tangible investment. It is long term and financing is usually easy. Most people tend to have positive experience after buying their first home, which normally would appreciate after a decade or two.
Simple things can morph into complex series of events. Buying houses may turn to speculation, massive speculations become a boom and bust “housing bubble”; banks may collapse from huge bad mortgages, a financial crisis and then a government bailout ensues, an economic recession soon follows. These events sound a little too familiar.
Low interest rates, massive liquidity and investors shying away from volatile stock markets, are some of the many reasons cited for Asia's potential property bubbles today. From 2009 or so, private residential properties have seen large average price jumps in China (Beijing +100%), Hong Kong (+53%), Singapore (+53%), Malaysia (+21%) and Indonesia (Jakarta +14%).
Asian policy makers have taken many pre-emptive actions to control this property “bubble”, usually by regulating excessive speculation and guiding mortgage lending by banks. In Hong Kong, policy makers try to discourage speculators by raising special stamp duty for short term resale of residential property (5% to 15%, depending on holding period); in Singapore, measures include a hefty extra 10% stamp duty on purchase price for non-residents. In Indonesia, there's a maximum 70% property loan limit.
Recent data suggest such curbs did not slow the Hong Kong or Singapore property markets for long. Transactions or prices picked up again recently. We believe however, if Asian property prices rise rapidly again, tougher curbs may be in the cards. The slew of increasingly tough measures in China the last 18 months is seen as an example. An avalanche of curbs eventually made China home prices dip for eight straight months up to May 2012.
Historically, financial crisis in many countries (Japan 1991, US 2008 and Spain today) are caused by property price bubbles bursting hurting consumers, banks and businesses. Therefore, it makes a lot of sense to have responsible lending.
Asian policy makers, having learned bitter lessons from the 1997/98 financial crisis, sees pre-emptive measures to control any potential property “bubble” as crucial to avoid banking problems or crises.
Governments in Asia on the one hand want to curb excessive price speculation, while at the same time, know that home ownership is a very important (and personal) issue notwithstanding it is also a big contributor to domestic economic growth.
What Asian policy makers aim to do is best captured in a Chinese phrase, which literally means “in peace time, think about danger”. The best time to prepare for rainy days is when the sun is shining it's a lot harder to do so in a storm.
The biggest challenge for policy makers is to develop a sustainable property sector and promote home ownership (especially first time house buyers) without boom and bust. That includes the balancing act of curbing property speculation without inadvertently pulling the brakes on the economy.
Some Malaysian non-listed property developers I met recently have expressed deep concerns that sales of their high-end, new condominiums are lagging, because buyers find it difficult to get financing.
Bank Negara's curbs on lending for third property mortgage (maximum 70% financing) and stricter banks credit standards appears to be working for now.
The intent of Bank Negara, we believe, is to nip excessive property price speculation in the bud. Current property curbs ensure at least prices don't run up too fast and banks may allocate more funds to first time house buyers rather than investors or speculators.
Interestingly, property developers who don't complain about curbs are often the established ones who prefer sustainable growth, rather than a boom and bust property market. I believe many property companies have learnt not to borrow too much.
Tellingly, the top five Malaysian listed property developers have reduced average net gearing from 70% in 2000 to 18% in 2011, (Indonesian and Thai property developers reduced from 612% to 9% and 255% to 84% respectively). Asean property companies today are undoubtedly less leveraged with healthier cash reserves.
That's one reason why most property developers in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand for example, are not rushing to unload properties at massive discounts, even as property curbs bite into sales. They know current measures are temporary and consumer demand is likely robust for quite some time.
Asian consumers are financially better off today. Healthy employment and wage increases across Asia means consumer demand for housing will likely stay buoyant and house prices, like in normal times, will gradually rise over time.
However, the intriguing impact on Asian properties today given the mind set and propensity of policy makers to pre-empt any potential property bubble I believe periods of excessive property price appreciation in many Asian property markets may already be over for now.
I believe policy maker's curbs on excessive price speculation is a right policy. Even if there's short-term pain, it will likely make Asian economic growth sustainable for the longer term in these difficult times.
Singular Vision
By TEOH KOK LIN
By TEOH KOK LIN
Teoh Kok Lin is the founder and chief investment officer of Singular Asset Management Sdn Bhd.
Sunday 17 June 2012
A boost for pandas diplomacy
The panda loan from China is more than just a visit by two cuddly animals — its significance goes beyond that as far as diplomatic and economic relations are concerned.
PUBLIC excitement has risen since Monday’s announcement that Malaysia will host a pair of giant panda cubs from China for 10 years.
It’s a big deal. You cannot put a value to this because the Chinese Government does not simply send off their pandas to zoos around the world.
The universally loved pandas are regarded as national treasures and certainly deserve to be given the royal treatment.
Besides Malaysia, only eight other countries have reportedly been given the honour of hosting these giant pandas, including Thailand and Singapore. In the case of Malaysia, the loan is to mark our 40th anniversary of diplomatic ties with China.
Singapore’s panda pair of Kai Kai and Jia Jia are due to arrive in September, about six months later than the originally planned date.
Their new home is River Safari in Mandai, which is slated to be open by the year’s end. It has been reported that the pandas will be placed in a 1,500 sq metre enclosure that will cost Singapore S$8.5mil (RM20.9mil).
The enclosure, which includes an outdoor area, a walkway that allows visitors to view the pandas up close and an air-conditioned exhibit area, will be ready by the end of this month.
Wildlife Reserves Singapore (WRS) chairman Claire Chiang was quoted as saying that the environment had to be at its best when the pandas arrived.
“The pandas are a precious gift from the state, so we are exercising the highest level of prudence and a heightened sense of responsibility,” she said.
When the panda loan to Singapore was first announced, a television crew was sent to Sichuan Province for a sneak preview of the pandas at the Bifengxia base.
The authorities went on a public relations campaign to boast of its “eco-friendly” food for the two pandas, pointing out that a special bamboo plantation covering 8,000 sq metres had been created to grow bamboo for the endangered animals.
In Thailand, Chiangmai Zoo has been home to panda couple Lin Hui and Xuang Xuang, on loan from China since 2003. The zoo has been really lucky because Lin Hui gave birth to her first baby in May 2009.
The panda birth created such a global sensation that visitors waited in long queues just to catch a glimpse of baby Lin Ping through closed circuit television during its first three months.
Shortly after the birth, The Nation newspaper quoted zoo director Thanapat Pongamorn as saying that the zoo had clinched a deal with cable television True to broadcast the life of Lin Ping and other animals at the zoo for two years.
At the time of the report, Lin Ping had already raked in 10 million baht (RM1mil) for the zoo, with half of the zoo’s daily income of 100,000 to 200,000 baht (RM10,000 to RM20,000) coming from tickets for the panda section.
For Singapore and Thailand, the authorities and the public wasted no time in exploring the numerous opportunities available from the loan of the pandas instead of engaging in time-consuming unproductive debate.
That aside, it is important for us to note that diplomatic ties between Malaysia and China are at its peak today. According to reports, bilateral trade volume is set to hit US101bil (RM319bil) this year, after reaching US$91bil (RM287bil) in 2011.
We are also reportedly the third country in Asia to hit this milestone after Japan and South Korea. Malaysia benefited from a surplus of US$30bil (RM95bil) last year, with IT products making up 40% of bilateral trade and palm oil being the biggest commodity export to China.
Relations with China received a further boost when both sides launched the China-Malaysia Qinzhou Industrial Park. There is already talk of setting up an economic and trade cooperation zone in Malaysia.
The panda loan is more than just a visit by two cuddly animals – its significance goes beyond that as far as diplomatic and economic relations are concerned. A lot is at stake, thus the pandas deserve nothing but the best during their stay here.
Related posts:
Giant Pandas are coming to Malaysia
Giant leap in relationship - Pandas World
Pandas to soothe your nerves; Huge housing task; Are Malaysians creative naming them?
PUBLIC excitement has risen since Monday’s announcement that Malaysia will host a pair of giant panda cubs from China for 10 years.
It’s a big deal. You cannot put a value to this because the Chinese Government does not simply send off their pandas to zoos around the world.
The universally loved pandas are regarded as national treasures and certainly deserve to be given the royal treatment.
On Friday, an agreement was signed by the China Wildlife Conservation Association and Malaysia’s Wildlife and National Parks Department. It is certainly a feather in the cap because the panda loan request was made by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak to his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao during his visit to Nanning in April.
Besides Malaysia, only eight other countries have reportedly been given the honour of hosting these giant pandas, including Thailand and Singapore. In the case of Malaysia, the loan is to mark our 40th anniversary of diplomatic ties with China.
Singapore’s panda pair of Kai Kai and Jia Jia are due to arrive in September, about six months later than the originally planned date.
Their new home is River Safari in Mandai, which is slated to be open by the year’s end. It has been reported that the pandas will be placed in a 1,500 sq metre enclosure that will cost Singapore S$8.5mil (RM20.9mil).
The enclosure, which includes an outdoor area, a walkway that allows visitors to view the pandas up close and an air-conditioned exhibit area, will be ready by the end of this month.
Wildlife Reserves Singapore (WRS) chairman Claire Chiang was quoted as saying that the environment had to be at its best when the pandas arrived.
“The pandas are a precious gift from the state, so we are exercising the highest level of prudence and a heightened sense of responsibility,” she said.
When the panda loan to Singapore was first announced, a television crew was sent to Sichuan Province for a sneak preview of the pandas at the Bifengxia base.
The authorities went on a public relations campaign to boast of its “eco-friendly” food for the two pandas, pointing out that a special bamboo plantation covering 8,000 sq metres had been created to grow bamboo for the endangered animals.
In Thailand, Chiangmai Zoo has been home to panda couple Lin Hui and Xuang Xuang, on loan from China since 2003. The zoo has been really lucky because Lin Hui gave birth to her first baby in May 2009.
The panda birth created such a global sensation that visitors waited in long queues just to catch a glimpse of baby Lin Ping through closed circuit television during its first three months.
Shortly after the birth, The Nation newspaper quoted zoo director Thanapat Pongamorn as saying that the zoo had clinched a deal with cable television True to broadcast the life of Lin Ping and other animals at the zoo for two years.
At the time of the report, Lin Ping had already raked in 10 million baht (RM1mil) for the zoo, with half of the zoo’s daily income of 100,000 to 200,000 baht (RM10,000 to RM20,000) coming from tickets for the panda section.
For Singapore and Thailand, the authorities and the public wasted no time in exploring the numerous opportunities available from the loan of the pandas instead of engaging in time-consuming unproductive debate.
That aside, it is important for us to note that diplomatic ties between Malaysia and China are at its peak today. According to reports, bilateral trade volume is set to hit US101bil (RM319bil) this year, after reaching US$91bil (RM287bil) in 2011.
We are also reportedly the third country in Asia to hit this milestone after Japan and South Korea. Malaysia benefited from a surplus of US$30bil (RM95bil) last year, with IT products making up 40% of bilateral trade and palm oil being the biggest commodity export to China.
Relations with China received a further boost when both sides launched the China-Malaysia Qinzhou Industrial Park. There is already talk of setting up an economic and trade cooperation zone in Malaysia.
The panda loan is more than just a visit by two cuddly animals – its significance goes beyond that as far as diplomatic and economic relations are concerned. A lot is at stake, thus the pandas deserve nothing but the best during their stay here.
On The Beat By WONG CHUN WAI
Related posts:
Giant Pandas are coming to Malaysia
Giant leap in relationship - Pandas World
Pandas to soothe your nerves; Huge housing task; Are Malaysians creative naming them?
Tuesday 29 May 2012
China's Revolutionary New Thinking On Private Capital
In a stunning series of announcements last week, Beijing opened the doors to private capital. In the process, officials signaled a reversal of a half decade of anti-reform sentiment.
Play Video China has issued new measures on guiding non-governmental capital into the domestic banking sector.
The China Banking Regulatory Commission has stated that private investors will have equal rights with other state-owned banks. Private investors can bid for the establishment and capital increase of a rural bank.
They can now have a larger share of a rural bank, as state-owned financial institutions shareholding has been lowered to 15% from 20%.
In addition, the Chinese banking industry will strengthen its financial support for private investors.
Yesterday, for instance, the China Banking Regulatory Commission announced private capital will have the same entry standards as state capital when it comes to the country’s banks. Specifically, private companies will be able to buy into banks through private stock placements, new share subscriptions, equity transfers, and mergers and acquisitions. Moreover, the government will liberalize investment into the rural banks and as well as the trust, financial leasing, and auto financing sectors.
And on the day before, Beijing gave the “all-clear” for the break up of state monopolies. The State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission issued guidelines that, among other things, permit private investors to contribute cash or assets like intellectual property to state enterprises in return for equity and discourage these enterprises from placing additional restrictions on private parties when the enterprises sell their stakes in listed companies. As SASAC noted, “The guideline reflects equal treatment of various kinds of investors and it helps ensure fairness in economic development.”
These two major developments followed a series of other recent indications of liberalization. The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced it would allow private companies to list on domestic and foreign stock markets and to issue bonds; the National Development and Reform Commission said it is drafting rules to open the electricity, oil, and natural gas sectors to private capital; and the Ministry of Railways talked about opening railroads to private capital. The State Council itself announced it is looking for private investment in the energy, telecom, education, and health care industries.
China, in short, is open for business, and there is no mystery surrounding the sudden change of attitude. First, many cite the eroding profitability of state enterprises for these announcements. In fact, official figures show that their profits fell 8.6% year-on-year in the January-April 2012 period.
Second, other factors include the decline of foreign direct investment—FDI fell for the sixth consecutive month in April—and a dramatic slowdown in economic activity—the economy showed signs of either zero growth or contraction last month. Initial indications for this month, such as the sinking HSBC Flash PMI, are mostly bearish.
Third, Beijing technocrats realize they will fall far short of reaching their target of 36 trillion yuan of fixed asset investment because the central government can only “channel” 402 billion yuan and state enterprises are sitting on their hands. The inescapable conclusion is that the only way to make up the difference is private capital.
Despite the country’s economic distress, it’s not clear when we will actually see implementation of the dramatic announcements. For one thing, it is not an encouraging sign that Beijing issued precious few details. At the moment, this looks like another instance of Chinese vaporware.
Why? In the last few years state enterprises have become entrenched and extremely powerful in Chinese political circles. And provincial and local governments are even more hostile to non-state capital because of the perceived divergence of interests between private investors and Party officials.
Moreover, it’s unlikely that much, if anything, will get done this year as top leaders are now embroiled in disruptive political struggles. In fact, part of the reason for the accelerating economic slide is that for months they have been distracted by the worsening turmoil in the top reaches of the Party. Moreover, not much may get done next year either. Xi Jinping is slated to take over this fall, and new supremos usually take a couple years before they are able to effectively exercise power.
In any event, central government ministries, if they were truly serious about liberalization, would just implement structural changes as opposed to talking about them. Until there is a sign he is serious this time, many will think Premier Wen Jiabao is borrowing from his 2010 playbook when he had his State Council grandly announced similar reforms that were not put into effect with real rules.
And there is one more factor suggesting private capital will not rescue the Chinese economy this time. As domestic and foreign investors learn more about both the fundamental and cyclical problems in China, it will be increasingly unlikely that anyone will commit substantial sums to the country.
After all, you don’t see private investors heading for Greece at the moment, and in some important ways China is in far worse shape. The internal and global narratives on the Chinese economy and political system are changing, and those changes are bound to have a negative effect on investment sentiment.
In short, Beijing’s announcements this month may evidence a welcome change of heart, but they could end up being both too little and too late to stop the country’s accelerating slide.
I write primarily on China, Asia, and nuclear proliferation.
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Play Video China has issued new measures on guiding non-governmental capital into the domestic banking sector.
The China Banking Regulatory Commission has stated that private investors will have equal rights with other state-owned banks. Private investors can bid for the establishment and capital increase of a rural bank.
They can now have a larger share of a rural bank, as state-owned financial institutions shareholding has been lowered to 15% from 20%.
In addition, the Chinese banking industry will strengthen its financial support for private investors.
Yesterday, for instance, the China Banking Regulatory Commission announced private capital will have the same entry standards as state capital when it comes to the country’s banks. Specifically, private companies will be able to buy into banks through private stock placements, new share subscriptions, equity transfers, and mergers and acquisitions. Moreover, the government will liberalize investment into the rural banks and as well as the trust, financial leasing, and auto financing sectors.
And on the day before, Beijing gave the “all-clear” for the break up of state monopolies. The State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission issued guidelines that, among other things, permit private investors to contribute cash or assets like intellectual property to state enterprises in return for equity and discourage these enterprises from placing additional restrictions on private parties when the enterprises sell their stakes in listed companies. As SASAC noted, “The guideline reflects equal treatment of various kinds of investors and it helps ensure fairness in economic development.”
These two major developments followed a series of other recent indications of liberalization. The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced it would allow private companies to list on domestic and foreign stock markets and to issue bonds; the National Development and Reform Commission said it is drafting rules to open the electricity, oil, and natural gas sectors to private capital; and the Ministry of Railways talked about opening railroads to private capital. The State Council itself announced it is looking for private investment in the energy, telecom, education, and health care industries.
China, in short, is open for business, and there is no mystery surrounding the sudden change of attitude. First, many cite the eroding profitability of state enterprises for these announcements. In fact, official figures show that their profits fell 8.6% year-on-year in the January-April 2012 period.
Second, other factors include the decline of foreign direct investment—FDI fell for the sixth consecutive month in April—and a dramatic slowdown in economic activity—the economy showed signs of either zero growth or contraction last month. Initial indications for this month, such as the sinking HSBC Flash PMI, are mostly bearish.
Third, Beijing technocrats realize they will fall far short of reaching their target of 36 trillion yuan of fixed asset investment because the central government can only “channel” 402 billion yuan and state enterprises are sitting on their hands. The inescapable conclusion is that the only way to make up the difference is private capital.
Despite the country’s economic distress, it’s not clear when we will actually see implementation of the dramatic announcements. For one thing, it is not an encouraging sign that Beijing issued precious few details. At the moment, this looks like another instance of Chinese vaporware.
Why? In the last few years state enterprises have become entrenched and extremely powerful in Chinese political circles. And provincial and local governments are even more hostile to non-state capital because of the perceived divergence of interests between private investors and Party officials.
Moreover, it’s unlikely that much, if anything, will get done this year as top leaders are now embroiled in disruptive political struggles. In fact, part of the reason for the accelerating economic slide is that for months they have been distracted by the worsening turmoil in the top reaches of the Party. Moreover, not much may get done next year either. Xi Jinping is slated to take over this fall, and new supremos usually take a couple years before they are able to effectively exercise power.
In any event, central government ministries, if they were truly serious about liberalization, would just implement structural changes as opposed to talking about them. Until there is a sign he is serious this time, many will think Premier Wen Jiabao is borrowing from his 2010 playbook when he had his State Council grandly announced similar reforms that were not put into effect with real rules.
And there is one more factor suggesting private capital will not rescue the Chinese economy this time. As domestic and foreign investors learn more about both the fundamental and cyclical problems in China, it will be increasingly unlikely that anyone will commit substantial sums to the country.
After all, you don’t see private investors heading for Greece at the moment, and in some important ways China is in far worse shape. The internal and global narratives on the Chinese economy and political system are changing, and those changes are bound to have a negative effect on investment sentiment.
In short, Beijing’s announcements this month may evidence a welcome change of heart, but they could end up being both too little and too late to stop the country’s accelerating slide.
Gordon G. Chang, Forbes Contributor
I write primarily on China, Asia, and nuclear proliferation.
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Thursday 19 April 2012
Thailand-China upgrades ties while Philippines spat with China worsens
China, Thailand upgrade bilateral ties, vow closer trade links
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao greets Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra in Beijing on April 17, 2012. Xu Jingxing / China Daily
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (R) shakes hands with Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra in Beijing, capital of China, April 17, 2012. (Xinhua/Zhang Duo)
BEIJING, April 17 (Xinhua) -- Premier Wen Jiabao and his Thai counterpart Yingluck Shinawatra agreed on Tuesday to upgrade bilateral relations to a "comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership."
"Establishing the China-Thailand strategic cooperative partnership is of great significance for both countries and the peaceful development of East Asia," Wen told Yingluck during their meeting at the Great Hall of the People.
"China hopes to enhance strategic communication with Thailand, jointly face challenges and boost cooperation in diversified areas," Wen added.
Yingluck, who is visiting China for the first time as Thailand's prime minister, said the creation of the partnership meets the common interests of both countries.
She vowed to facilitate stronger cooperation with China in all areas, adding that her country will play a positive role in boosting ASEAN-China cooperation and maintaining peace and stability on the South China Sea.
The Chinese premier proposed expanding bilateral trade to 100 billion US dollars annually before 2015 and enhancing cooperation in ocean, telecommunication, technology, energy and agriculture.
Wen pledged continuous support for Thailand in its post-disaster reconstruction and water conservancy following last year's devastating flood, the worst flood to hit Thailand in nearly 50 years.
The two premiers also agreed to boost joint patrols of China, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand along the Mekong River and jointly safeguard peace and stability on the South China Sea.
Yingluck said Thailand will conclude judicial proceedings regarding the murder of Chinese crewmen on the Mekong river as soon as possible and punish the criminals involved in accordance with the law.
Two Chinese cargo ships were attacked on Oct. 5 last year, with the attackers killing 13 sailors.
After their talk, the two premiers witnessed the sealing of seven bilateral cooperation agreements on issues ranging from trade, agriculture and railways to flood and drought prevention and ocean research.
Yingluck arrived in Beijing earlier Tuesday for a three-day official visit. The first female prime minister of Thailand was accompanied by executives from about 100 Thai companies.
According to Chinese Customs statistics, China is both the largest export market and second-largest import source for Thailand. The two countries' trade volume hit 64.7 billion U.S. dollars in 2011.
Philippines spat with China worsens in violating maritime law
- Associated PressBEIJING – China said Wednesday that the Philippines is violating maritime law by claiming a shoal in the South China Sea and dismissed Manila's request to take the dispute to an international court.
"We believe it runs counter to historical facts and violates the law," said Liu Weimin, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry.
Philippine navy and Chinese maritime patrol vessels engaged in a standoff last week over a fishing incident near the Scarborough shoal in the South China Sea, an area both sides claim as sovereign territory.
Liu said China had "lodged solemn representations" with the Philippines and that Fu Ying, a vice foreign minister, had called in the Philippine envoy on Wednesday over the issue.
The Philippines plans to seek resolution in an international court, arguing that the shoal is well within the country's 370-kilometer (230-mile) exclusive economic zone that is recognized under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Liu said the Philippines is violating international law by using the U.N. convention to call into question sovereignty over the territory, known as Huangyan island in Chinese.
"China has sufficient legal evidence for its jurisdiction over the Huangyan island. China was the earliest to discover (12th century) and name the island, and has included it on maps and exercised its sovereignty over it ever since," Liu said.
Liu said that the Philippines never objected to China's territorial control of the shoal before 1997 and that its claim now is "completely baseless."
A Philippine government statement on Wednesday contradicted Liu's remarks, saying it has effectively occupied and exercised jurisdiction over the shoal -- which it calls Bajo de Masinloc, or Panatag shoal -- for decades.
A map published in 1734 showed the shoal was part of the northwestern Philippine province of Zambales, the government said, adding that a Philippine flag and lighthouse were erected on Scarborough islets in 1965.
U.S. and Philippine warships engaged in defense exercises at the shoal when American forces maintained a naval base in Zambales, the government said. The shoal "is an integral part of the Philippine territory" and Chinese vessels in the area are committing "serious violation of the Philippines' sovereignty and maritime jurisdiction," it said.
The shoal is among numerous islands, reefs and coral outcrops in the South China Sea claimed by China, the Philippines and other nations for their potential oil and gas deposits, rich fishing grounds and proximity to busy commercial sea lanes.
The controversy flared on April 10 when two Chinese ships prevented a Philippine warship from arresting several Chinese fishermen who were accused of illegal entry and poaching. The fishermen slipped away from the shoal over the weekend, angering Philippine officials.
Manila lodged a protest with China on Monday, accusing one of the Chinese ships and an aircraft of harassing a Philippine-registered yacht that was conducting archaeological research in the shoal.
Liu said tensions started to ease after bilateral talks.
"We hope that the Philippines can stay with their commitment and pull back their ships as soon as possible, and resume peace and stability in waters near the Huangyan island," Liu said.- Associated Press
Wednesday 7 December 2011
Prepare for combat, China’s Hu urges navy!
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AFP
Chinese President Hu Jintao Tuesday urged the navy to prepare for military combat amid growing regional tensions over maritime disputes and a US campaign to assert itself as a Pacific power.
The navy should “accelerate its transformation and modernisation in a sturdy way, and make extended preparations for military combat in order to make greater contributions to safeguard national security,” he said.
Addressing the powerful Central Military Commission, Hu said: “Our work must closely encircle the main theme of national defence and military building.”
His remarks, which were posted on a statement on a government website, come amid growing US and regional concerns over China’s naval ambitions, particularly in the South China Sea.
Chinese President Hu Jintao on Tuesday urged the navy to prepare for military combat, amid growing regional tensions over maritime disputes and a US campaign to assert itself as a Pacific power.
The navy should "accelerate its transformation and modernisation in a sturdy way, and make extended preparations for military combat in order to make greater contributions to safeguard national security," he said.
Addressing the powerful Central Military Commission, Hu said: "Our work must closely encircle the main theme of national defence and military building."
His comments, which were posted in a statement on a government website, come as the United States and Beijing's neighbours have expressed concerns over its naval ambitions, particularly in the South China Sea.
AFP
Chinese President Hu Jintao Tuesday urged the navy to prepare for military combat amid growing regional tensions over maritime disputes and a US campaign to assert itself as a Pacific power.
The navy should “accelerate its transformation and modernisation in a sturdy way, and make extended preparations for military combat in order to make greater contributions to safeguard national security,” he said.
Addressing the powerful Central Military Commission, Hu said: “Our work must closely encircle the main theme of national defence and military building.”
His remarks, which were posted on a statement on a government website, come amid growing US and regional concerns over China’s naval ambitions, particularly in the South China Sea.
Chinese President Hu Jintao on Tuesday urged the navy to prepare for military combat, amid growing regional tensions over maritime disputes and a US campaign to assert itself as a Pacific power.
The navy should "accelerate its transformation and modernisation in a sturdy way, and make extended preparations for military combat in order to make greater contributions to safeguard national security," he said.
Addressing the powerful Central Military Commission, Hu said: "Our work must closely encircle the main theme of national defence and military building."
His comments, which were posted in a statement on a government website, come as the United States and Beijing's neighbours have expressed concerns over its naval ambitions, particularly in the South China Sea.
Several Asian nations have competing claims over parts of the South China Sea, believed to encompass huge oil and gas reserves, while China claims it all. One-third of global seaborne trade passes through the region.
Vietnam and the Philippines have accused Chinese forces of increasing aggression there.
In a translation of Hu's comments, the official Xinhua news agency quoted the president as saying China's navy should "make extended preparations for warfare.
The Pentagon however downplayed Hu's speech, saying that Beijing had the right to develop its military, although it should do so transparently.
"They have a right to develop military capabilities and to plan, just as we do," said Pentagon spokesman George Little, but he added, "We have repeatedly called for transparency from the Chinese and that's part of the relationship we're continuing to build with the Chinese military."
"Nobody's looking for a scrap here," insisted another spokesman, Admiral John Kirby. "Certainly we wouldn't begrudge any other nation the opportunity, the right to develop naval forces to be ready.
"Our naval forces are ready and they'll stay ready."
State Department spokesman Mark Toner said: "We want to see stronger military-to-military ties with China and we want to see greater transparency. That helps answer questions we might have about Chinese intentions."
Hu's announcement comes in the wake of trips to Asia by several senior US officials, including President Barack Obama, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
US undersecretary of defence Michelle Flournoy is due to meet in Beijing with her Chinese counterparts on Wednesday for military-to-military talks.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao last month warned against interference by "external forces" in regional territorial disputes including those in the South China Sea.
And China said late last month it would conduct naval exercises in the Pacific Ocean, after Obama, who has dubbed himself America's first Pacific president, said the US would deploy up to 2,500 Marines to Australia.
China's People's Liberation Army, the largest military in the world, is primarily a land force, but its navy is playing an increasingly important role as Beijing grows more assertive about its territorial claims.
Earlier this year, the Pentagon warned that Beijing was increasingly focused on its naval power and had invested in high-tech weaponry that would extend its reach in the Pacific and beyond.
China's first aircraft carrier began its second sea trial last week after undergoing refurbishments and testing, the government said.
The 300-metre (990-foot) ship, a refitted former Soviet carrier, underwent five days of trials in August that sparked international concern about China's widening naval reach.
Beijing only confirmed this year that it was revamping the old Soviet ship and has repeatedly insisted that the carrier poses no threat to its neighbours and will be used mainly for training and research purposes.
But the August sea trials were met with concern from regional powers including Japan and the United States, which called on Beijing to explain why it needs an aircraft carrier.
China, which publicly announced around 50 separate naval exercises in the seas off its coast over the past two years -- usually after the event -- says its military is only focused on defending the country's territory.
Related post:
Pentagon planning Cold War against China - AirSea ...
Vietnam and the Philippines have accused Chinese forces of increasing aggression there.
In a translation of Hu's comments, the official Xinhua news agency quoted the president as saying China's navy should "make extended preparations for warfare.
The Pentagon however downplayed Hu's speech, saying that Beijing had the right to develop its military, although it should do so transparently.
"They have a right to develop military capabilities and to plan, just as we do," said Pentagon spokesman George Little, but he added, "We have repeatedly called for transparency from the Chinese and that's part of the relationship we're continuing to build with the Chinese military."
"Nobody's looking for a scrap here," insisted another spokesman, Admiral John Kirby. "Certainly we wouldn't begrudge any other nation the opportunity, the right to develop naval forces to be ready.
"Our naval forces are ready and they'll stay ready."
State Department spokesman Mark Toner said: "We want to see stronger military-to-military ties with China and we want to see greater transparency. That helps answer questions we might have about Chinese intentions."
Hu's announcement comes in the wake of trips to Asia by several senior US officials, including President Barack Obama, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
US undersecretary of defence Michelle Flournoy is due to meet in Beijing with her Chinese counterparts on Wednesday for military-to-military talks.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao last month warned against interference by "external forces" in regional territorial disputes including those in the South China Sea.
And China said late last month it would conduct naval exercises in the Pacific Ocean, after Obama, who has dubbed himself America's first Pacific president, said the US would deploy up to 2,500 Marines to Australia.
China's People's Liberation Army, the largest military in the world, is primarily a land force, but its navy is playing an increasingly important role as Beijing grows more assertive about its territorial claims.
Earlier this year, the Pentagon warned that Beijing was increasingly focused on its naval power and had invested in high-tech weaponry that would extend its reach in the Pacific and beyond.
China's first aircraft carrier began its second sea trial last week after undergoing refurbishments and testing, the government said.
The 300-metre (990-foot) ship, a refitted former Soviet carrier, underwent five days of trials in August that sparked international concern about China's widening naval reach.
Beijing only confirmed this year that it was revamping the old Soviet ship and has repeatedly insisted that the carrier poses no threat to its neighbours and will be used mainly for training and research purposes.
But the August sea trials were met with concern from regional powers including Japan and the United States, which called on Beijing to explain why it needs an aircraft carrier.
China, which publicly announced around 50 separate naval exercises in the seas off its coast over the past two years -- usually after the event -- says its military is only focused on defending the country's territory.
Related post:
Pentagon planning Cold War against China - AirSea ...
Monday 21 November 2011
Is China still a developing nation?
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China’s fight to retain its developing country status is of interest to other developing countries, for they will be next if China loses that fight
IS CHINA still a developing country, or has it joined the ranks of the advanced developed countries? This has become a topical question, especially after US Presi-dent Barack Obama reportedly told Chinese President Hu Jintao last week that China had to act more responsibly now that it has “grown up”.
This interesting conversation took place at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) Summit in Hawaii. And when Obama met Chinese premier Wen Jiabao at the East Asia Summit hosted by Asean in Bali last week, he must have said something similar, in between chiding him for not allowing the Chinese currency to shoot up.
By telling China that it has become a grown-up, Obama meant that China should now be treated just like the US or Europe in terms of international obligations – like taking on binding commitments to reduce greenhouse house gas emissions, cutting its tariffs to near zero and giving up its subsidies under the World Trade Organisation, giving aid to poor countries and letting its currency float.
This is what the US has been pressurising China to do in the recent negotiations in climate change, in the WTO’s Doha talks, at various meetings of the United Nations and at the Apec summit.
In fact, most of the important multilateral negotiations are stalled because the US (with Europe and Japan standing behind it) insists that China gives up its developing country status and takes on the obligations of a developed country.
It is not only China, of course. They also want India and Brazil to do likewise. And often also mentioned are South Africa and the wealthier or bigger Asean countries.
The main focus, however, is China. There has been growing respect for – or, rather, fear of – China, that it is growing so fast and has become so big and powerful it might swallow up the Western world in a decade or two.
So, the question is pertinent. Is China a developed country?
The answer depends on what criteria are used. In absolute terms, China is indeed a big economy. Its GNP is second only to that of the United States. It has become the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, having overtaken the United States.
But this is mainly because China is a big country in terms of population. With 1.3 billion people, it is the world’s most populous country.
However, despite the mighty image it has been given by the world media, China looks like a very ordinary developing country once we look at per capita indicators.
Whether one is a developed or developing country is defined by the UN and by the IMF and World Bank, and the most important criterion is income per capita.
By that yardstick, China is very much a developing country.
The International Monetary Fund, in its latest World Economic Outlook, classifies China as a developing country, with a per capita Gross Domes-tic Product last year of US$4,382 (RM13,852), ranked a lowly 91 of 184 countries in the world.
Six African countries (Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Botswana, Mauritius, South Africa, Namibia) had GDP per capita levels higher than China.
China’s GDP per capita was less than a tenth that of the United States, which had US$46,860 (RM148,129). Luxembourg had the highest ranking, US$108,952 (RM344,408). Malaysia was No. 65 at US$8,423 (RM26,626) and Singapore No. 15 at US$43,117 (RM136,297).
Economists also use the measure of GNP per capita “in gross purchasing power” (GPP). This is to take into account the different costs of living in different countries. People living in countries with a lower cost of living could enjoy a higher li- ving standard than their country’s GNP implies.
Last year, in GDP (at GPP) per capita terms, China was lower still at No. 95 with US$7,544 (RM23,847), just below Ecuador and just above Albania, El Salvador and Guyana.
By contrast, Malaysia was at No. 58 with GPP per capita of US$14,744 (RM46,607) while Singapore was No. 3 with US$56,694 (RM179,295).
The UN Development Programme has a human development index (HDI) that measures quality of life in terms of income, schooling, life expectancy and so on.
The Human Development Report 2011 shows China at No. 101 of 187 countries with a HDI of 0.687 and in a category of “medium human development”.
What about climate change? China, again mainly because of its huge population, is the top greenhouse gas emitting country, with a total of 7,232 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2005. The US is second with 6,914 Mtonnes. India was fifth with 1,859 Mtonnes.
But in per capita terms, China’s emissions level was 5.5 CO2-equivalent per person, ranked 84 in the world. By contrast, the US’ per capita emission was 23.4 CO2 equivalent, Australia’s 27.3, Russia’s 13.7, Germany’s 11.9, Japan’s 10.5, Singapore’s 11.4, Malaysia’s 9.2, South Africa’s 9.0, Brazil’s 5.4, Indonesia’s 2.7, India’s 1.7 and Rwanda’s 0.4.
Thus, as No. 91 country in the world in GDP per capita, No. 101 in human development index and No. 84 in per capita emissions, China is looking like, and is, a middle-level or even lower-middle level developing country, with not only all the developed countries ahead of it, but also many developing countries, too.
China also shares the same characteristics of many developing countries. More than 700 million of its 1.3 billion people live in the rural areas, and in 2008 there was a large imbalance, with the urban disposable household income 3.3 times bigger on average than in rural areas.
According to China’s own standard, 43 million Chinese are low-income (below US$160 (RM506) a year). By the higher UN standard, 150 million people are poor, living on less than US$1 (RM3.16) a day.
Each year, 12 million people are newly added to the job market, outnumbering the population of Greece, and it is quite a task to find them jobs.
This does not deny the fact that there are high points in China’s development: its big GNP in absolute terms, its high rate of economic growth, the foreign reserves of above US$3 trillion (RM9.5 trillion).
But the fact remains that while China has become a big economic power in absolute terms, it is still a middle-level developing country, with the socio-economic problems that most developing countries have.
And if China is pressurised to take on the duties of a developed country and to forgo its status and benefits of a developing country, then many other developing countries that are ahead of China (at least in per capita terms) may soon be also asked to do the same.
Thus China’s fight to retain its developing country status is of interest to other developing countries, for they will be next if China loses that fight.
Global Trends By MARTIN KHOR
Last week, US President Barack Obama said China has ‘grown up’ and must take on the responsibilities of a developed country. But is China already grown up – or is it still a developing country?China’s fight to retain its developing country status is of interest to other developing countries, for they will be next if China loses that fight
IS CHINA still a developing country, or has it joined the ranks of the advanced developed countries? This has become a topical question, especially after US Presi-dent Barack Obama reportedly told Chinese President Hu Jintao last week that China had to act more responsibly now that it has “grown up”.
This interesting conversation took place at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) Summit in Hawaii. And when Obama met Chinese premier Wen Jiabao at the East Asia Summit hosted by Asean in Bali last week, he must have said something similar, in between chiding him for not allowing the Chinese currency to shoot up.
By telling China that it has become a grown-up, Obama meant that China should now be treated just like the US or Europe in terms of international obligations – like taking on binding commitments to reduce greenhouse house gas emissions, cutting its tariffs to near zero and giving up its subsidies under the World Trade Organisation, giving aid to poor countries and letting its currency float.
This is what the US has been pressurising China to do in the recent negotiations in climate change, in the WTO’s Doha talks, at various meetings of the United Nations and at the Apec summit.
In fact, most of the important multilateral negotiations are stalled because the US (with Europe and Japan standing behind it) insists that China gives up its developing country status and takes on the obligations of a developed country.
It is not only China, of course. They also want India and Brazil to do likewise. And often also mentioned are South Africa and the wealthier or bigger Asean countries.
The main focus, however, is China. There has been growing respect for – or, rather, fear of – China, that it is growing so fast and has become so big and powerful it might swallow up the Western world in a decade or two.
So, the question is pertinent. Is China a developed country?
The answer depends on what criteria are used. In absolute terms, China is indeed a big economy. Its GNP is second only to that of the United States. It has become the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, having overtaken the United States.
But this is mainly because China is a big country in terms of population. With 1.3 billion people, it is the world’s most populous country.
However, despite the mighty image it has been given by the world media, China looks like a very ordinary developing country once we look at per capita indicators.
Whether one is a developed or developing country is defined by the UN and by the IMF and World Bank, and the most important criterion is income per capita.
By that yardstick, China is very much a developing country.
The International Monetary Fund, in its latest World Economic Outlook, classifies China as a developing country, with a per capita Gross Domes-tic Product last year of US$4,382 (RM13,852), ranked a lowly 91 of 184 countries in the world.
Six African countries (Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Botswana, Mauritius, South Africa, Namibia) had GDP per capita levels higher than China.
China’s GDP per capita was less than a tenth that of the United States, which had US$46,860 (RM148,129). Luxembourg had the highest ranking, US$108,952 (RM344,408). Malaysia was No. 65 at US$8,423 (RM26,626) and Singapore No. 15 at US$43,117 (RM136,297).
Economists also use the measure of GNP per capita “in gross purchasing power” (GPP). This is to take into account the different costs of living in different countries. People living in countries with a lower cost of living could enjoy a higher li- ving standard than their country’s GNP implies.
Last year, in GDP (at GPP) per capita terms, China was lower still at No. 95 with US$7,544 (RM23,847), just below Ecuador and just above Albania, El Salvador and Guyana.
By contrast, Malaysia was at No. 58 with GPP per capita of US$14,744 (RM46,607) while Singapore was No. 3 with US$56,694 (RM179,295).
The UN Development Programme has a human development index (HDI) that measures quality of life in terms of income, schooling, life expectancy and so on.
The Human Development Report 2011 shows China at No. 101 of 187 countries with a HDI of 0.687 and in a category of “medium human development”.
What about climate change? China, again mainly because of its huge population, is the top greenhouse gas emitting country, with a total of 7,232 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2005. The US is second with 6,914 Mtonnes. India was fifth with 1,859 Mtonnes.
But in per capita terms, China’s emissions level was 5.5 CO2-equivalent per person, ranked 84 in the world. By contrast, the US’ per capita emission was 23.4 CO2 equivalent, Australia’s 27.3, Russia’s 13.7, Germany’s 11.9, Japan’s 10.5, Singapore’s 11.4, Malaysia’s 9.2, South Africa’s 9.0, Brazil’s 5.4, Indonesia’s 2.7, India’s 1.7 and Rwanda’s 0.4.
Thus, as No. 91 country in the world in GDP per capita, No. 101 in human development index and No. 84 in per capita emissions, China is looking like, and is, a middle-level or even lower-middle level developing country, with not only all the developed countries ahead of it, but also many developing countries, too.
China also shares the same characteristics of many developing countries. More than 700 million of its 1.3 billion people live in the rural areas, and in 2008 there was a large imbalance, with the urban disposable household income 3.3 times bigger on average than in rural areas.
According to China’s own standard, 43 million Chinese are low-income (below US$160 (RM506) a year). By the higher UN standard, 150 million people are poor, living on less than US$1 (RM3.16) a day.
Each year, 12 million people are newly added to the job market, outnumbering the population of Greece, and it is quite a task to find them jobs.
This does not deny the fact that there are high points in China’s development: its big GNP in absolute terms, its high rate of economic growth, the foreign reserves of above US$3 trillion (RM9.5 trillion).
But the fact remains that while China has become a big economic power in absolute terms, it is still a middle-level developing country, with the socio-economic problems that most developing countries have.
And if China is pressurised to take on the duties of a developed country and to forgo its status and benefits of a developing country, then many other developing countries that are ahead of China (at least in per capita terms) may soon be also asked to do the same.
Thus China’s fight to retain its developing country status is of interest to other developing countries, for they will be next if China loses that fight.
Saturday 19 November 2011
U.S., China set to face off at summit over sea dispute
(Reuters) - The United States and China are set to face off on Saturday at a regional summit over the thorny issue of how to resolve competing claims to sovereignty of the South China Sea, the latest point of friction between the two powerful nations.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao insisted on Friday that "outside forces" had no excuse to get involved in the complex maritime dispute, a veiled warning to the United States and other countries to keep out of the sensitive issue.
Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei all have claims to parts of the South China Sea, a major route for some $5 trillion in trade each year and potentially rich in resources. China claims large parts of the maritime region.
The Southeast Asian countries along with the United States and Japan are pressuring Beijing to try to seek some way forward on the knotty issue of sovereignty, which flared up again this year with often tense maritime stand-offs that an Australian think tank said could lead to conflict.
China wants to hold bilateral talks with other countries that claims parts of the South China Sea as their territory, but the Southeast Asian claimants, the United States and Japan are pushing for a multilateral approach.
"It ought to be resolved through friendly consultations and discussions by countries directly involved. Outside forces should not, under any pretext, get involved," Wen told a meeting with Southeast Asian leaders on Friday, several of whose countries claim sovereignty to parts of the South China Sea.
Wen's comments were carried on the Chinese Foreign Ministry's website (www.mfa.gov.cn).
Obama has been more low key as far as public comments are concerned. He told the leaders of India, the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia in bilateral meetings that the East Asia Summit, which draws together Southeast Asian nations and eight dialogue partners, was the right arena to discuss maritime disputes.
U.S. Deputy National Security adviser for strategic communications, Ben Rhodes, said earlier this week that "in the discussion about maritime security, the South China Sea will clearly be a concern."
Obama and Wen plan to meet on the sidelines of the summit before the leaders start their formal meeting.
INFLUENCE
Their exchanges are the latest barbs between the two countries in recent weeks as Obama has sought to reassert U.S. presence in the Asia-Pacific to counter the growing clout of the world's second-largest economy, China.
Obama said in Australia on Thursday, on his last stop before jetting to the Asia meetings in neighboring Indonesia, that the U.S. military would expand its Asia-Pacific role, declaring America was "here to stay" as a Pacific power.
Days earlier, as host of the Asia Pacific Economic Co-Operation forum in Hawaii, Obama had voiced growing frustration at China's trade practices and he pushed for a new Asia-Pacific trade deal with some of Beijing's neighbors.
The moves are seen as an attempt to reassert U.S. leadership in the face of China's rising influence around the Pacific Rim and reassure allies such as South Korea and Japan that it would remain a strong counterweight.
Obama also announced on Friday that he would send Secretary of States Hillary Clinton next month to Myanmar, which has drawn closer to China in reaction to Western sanctions, the first such trip to the isolated country in half a century.
That will add to some fears in Beijing of encirclement in the Asia Pacific as the United States increases its footprint in the region.
CLAIMS
China's claims over the South China Sea is by far the largest, forming a U-shape over most of the sea's 648,000 square miles (1.7 million square kms), including the Spratly and Paracel archipelagos.
The United States has irked China by declaring a national interest at stake in the South China Sea by ensuring the freedom of navigation and trade.
Estimates of proven and undiscovered oil reserves in the South China Sea range from 28 billion barrels of oil to as high as 213 billion barrels, U.S. figures showed in 2008. Gas deposits could be as high as 3.8 trillion cubic meters.
Both could supply China with energy for decades.
The Philippines has called for greater unity among Southeast Asian nations with claims in their stand against China. A strong position from the United States in support of open talks could embolden such unity.
(Writing by Neil Fullick)
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China cautions 'outside forces' on sea issue
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Wen Jiabao sounds warning against interference in dispute with neighbours over potentially oil-rich South China Sea.
Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, has said "outside forces" had no excuse to get involved in a complex dispute over the South China Sea. Wen, who spoke on Friday at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit on the Indonesian resort island of Bali, gave a veiled warning to the US and others not to interfere in the sensitive issue. But he also struck a softer line during the ASEAN summit by offering loans and saying China only wanted to be friends. China already claim a large swathe of the South China Sea, which straddles key shipping lanes and is potentially rich in energy resources. Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei are the other claimants to parts of the sea, and along with the US and Japan, are pressuring China to try and seek some way forward on the knotty issue of sovereignty, which has flared up again this year with often tense maritime confrontations. The Chinese news agency reported Wen as saying "the dispute which exists among relevant countries in this region over the South China Sea is an issue which has built up for several years". "It ought to be resolved through friendly consultations and discussions by countries directly involved. Outside forces should not, under any pretext, get involved," he said. Concerns expressed Japan has also expressed concern over the dispute, and India has become involved via an oil-exploration deal with Vietnam in the South China Sea. Marty Natalegawa, the Indonesian foreign minister, said that China had sent positive signals about further discussing the code of conduct for the waters. "I think this is an important development," Natalegawa said.
The White House has said President Barack Obama, who is also in Bali, will bring up the issue at the summit. China has said it does not want it discussed, preferring to deal with the problem bilaterally amongst the states directly involved. Beijing accuses the US of trying to consolidate its own position in Southeast Asia. Obama has agreed to to deploy up to 2,500 troops and boost air force co-operation with Australia. China sees US action as a deliberate ploy to counterbalance the rise of China as an economic and military in the region. Despite the disagreements over the South China Sea, China has been keen to deepen trade and economic ties with Southeast Asia, and has a free trade agreement with the bloc. "The China-ASEAN relationship is solidly based and has great potential and a promising future," Wen said in his speech. To this end, Wen said China would offer $10bn in loans, on top of a pledge $15bn of loans made two years ago. China will also set up a $473 million fund to expand practical maritime co-operation by promoting cooperation in environmental protection, navigational safety and combating transnational crimes. Source: Agencies Newscribe : get free news in real time |
Thursday 3 November 2011
China completes nation's first space docking
China spacecraft dock together in orbit
TweetChina took a crucial step towards fulfilling its ambition to set up a manned space station on Thursday by completing its first successful docking high above Earth, state media reported.
The Shenzhou VIII spacecraft joined onto the Tiangong-1 experimental module at 1737 GMT, silently coupling more than 343 kilometres (213 miles) above the Earth's surface, the Xinhua news agency said.
The spacecraft, whose name translates as "divine vessel", is a modified version of the capsules that took the first Chinese astronauts into space as part of the rising power's ambitious exploration programme.
China aims to complete construction of a space station by 2020, a goal that requires it to perfect docking technology -- a delicate manoeuvre that the Russians and Americans successfully completed in the 1960s.
The technology is hard to master because the two vessels, placed in the same orbit and revolving around Earth at high speed, must come together progressively to avoid destroying each other.
China sees its space programme as a symbol of its global stature, growing technical expertise, and the Communist Party's success in turning around the fortunes of the once poverty-stricken nation.
Chinese leaders including Premier Wen Jiabao were at the Beijing Aerospace Flight Control Center to watch a live broadcast of the docking, while President Hu Jintao, who is in France for the G20 summit, sent a congratulatory message.
"Breakthroughs in and acquisition of space docking technologies are vital to the three-phase development strategy of our manned space programme," Hu said.
The docking took eight minutes and was aided by microwave radars, laser distance measurers and video cameras.
The two spacecraft, each weighing about eight tonnes, smoothly captured, cushioned, connected and locked onto each other, Xinhua reported.
"To link up two vehicles traveling at 7.8 km per second in orbit, with a margin of error of no more than 20 centimetres, is like 'finding a needle in a haystack'," Zhou Jianping, chief designer of China's manned space programme, said.
"This will make it possible for China to carry out space exploration on a larger scale."
He said the country was now equipped with the technology and capacity to construct a space station, adding that Shenzhou VIII might be used as the prototype for a series of spaceships.
China plans to make more than 20 manned space voyages in the next decade, Xinhua said.
A Chinese astronaut trainer is among six volunteers who will emerge on Friday into the outside world after spending almost 18 months in isolation at a Russian research centre to test the effects on humans of a flight to Mars.
China began its manned spaceflight programme in 1990 after buying Russian technology and in 2003 became the third country to send humans into space, after the former Soviet Union and the United States.
In September 2008, the Shenzhou VII, piloted by three astronauts, carried out China's first space walk.
The Shenzhou VIII spacecraft took off on Tuesday from the Jiuquan base in the northwestern province of Gansu from where Tiangong-1 -- or "Heavenly Palace" -- also launched on September 29.
The two vessels will stay linked together for around 12 days before separating and uniting again at a later date, said Wu Ping, spokeswoman for China's manned space programme.
If this mission is a success, China will launch two more spacecraft next year to dock with Tiangong-1 -- the Shenzhou IX and Shenzhou X -- at least one of which will be manned.
Two women are among the astronauts who are training for this mission, Xinhua said. If they are chosen to go, they will be the first women to be sent into space by China.
In preparation for the manned flight, two life-size dummies have been placed on board Shenzhou VIII.
Electronic data will be transmitted back to Earth to help researchers assess the impact of the flight on human breathing, temperature and blood pressure.
The spacecraft is also being used by Chinese and German researchers to conduct joint experiments in life sciences and microgravity, the first time another country has been given any access to China's manned space programme.
China plans to launch a space laboratory before 2016, and hopes to have a space station in orbit capable of accommodating long-term stays in space by around 2020, officials have said.
(c) 2011 AFP
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China spacecraft dock together in orbit
Two unmanned Chinese spacecraft docked successfully and were orbiting the Earth together on Thursday in a step that moves China closer to manning its own space station in about a decade.
The Shenzhou 8 craft that was launched on Tuesday docked with the already orbiting Tiangong 1 module, said Wu Ping, spokeswoman for China's manned space program.
The assembly has orbited Earth six times, with onboard instruments working normally, she said.
The US and Russia are the only other countries to master the space docking technique. It was "a milestone success and sets a sound foundation for continued missions", Wu said.
The joint assembly will fly for another 12 days doing tests, then a second docking will be followed by two days' flight. Shenzhou 8 is scheduled to return to Earth on November 17, she said.
"Our aim is to try our best to perform multiple tests within one launch so as to maximise our benefits through limited launches," Wu said.
China launched its own space station program after being turned away in its repeated attempts to join the 16-nation International Space Station. That was largely on objections from the United States, which is wary of the Chinese space program's military links.
Experts see no explicit military function for the Chinese space station.
In terms of technology, the launch of the Tiangong-1 places China about where the US was in the 1960s during the Gemini program. But experts say China progresses further than the US did with each launch it undertakes.
Two more docking missions with the Tiangong 1 model are planned next year, one of them manned. China will set up a space lab by 2016, Wu said, and its actual station will be launched in three sections between 2020 and 2022.
All the parts of the docking mechanism and the more than 600 onboard instruments were designed and made by Chinese state-owned and private companies, she said.
President Hu Jintao praised the docking in a message from France en route to the Group of 20 economic summit. Premier Wen Jiabao and other top officials watched the docking from an aerospace centre in Beijing, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.
At about 60 tons when completed, the Chinese station will be considerably smaller than the International Space Station, which is expected to continue operating through 2028.
China launched its first manned flight in 2003, joining Russia and the United States as the only countries to launch humans into orbit. The Chinese space program also calls for one day landing on the moon, possibly with astronauts.
Asked by a reporter what real benefits the Chinese government's investment in its space program brought to ordinary citizens, Wu said "It's fair to say that aerospace technology is closely linked to the everyday life of the people."
She said the benefits of past space travel ranged from the use of satellites for navigating in cars and television broadcasting to the designs of nappies for babies and the freeze-drying of ingredients used in instant noodles.
© 2011 AFP Newscribe : get free news in real time
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China's space station program
Friday 30 September 2011
China's Tiangong-1 completes orbit maneuver & the future missions
09-30-2011 08:40 BJT Special Report: Tiangong I - China's first space rendezvous and docking task
Full Video: China´s first space lab module enters space CCTV News - CNTV English
Full Video: China´s first space lab module enters space CCTV News - CNTV English
BEIJING, Sept. 29 (Xinhua) -- China's first space lab module Tiangong-1, or Heavenly Palace-1, blasted off at 9:16 p.m. Beijing Time (1316 GMT) Thursday in a northwest desert area as the nation envisions the coming of its space station era in about ten years.
The unmanned module, carried by the Long March-2FT1 rocket, will test space docking with a spacecraft later this year, paving the way for China to operate a permanent space station around 2020 and making it the world's third country to do so.
A Long March-2FT1 carrier rocket loaded with Tiangong-1 unmanned space lab module blasts off from the launch pad at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in northwest China's Gansu Province, Sept. 29, 2011. (Xinhua/Wang Jianmin) |
More than ten minutes after the blastoff, Commander-in-chief of China's manned space program Chang Wanquan announced the launch's success at the control center in Beijing.
The success of the launch, however, is just a beginning, and the real challenge is space docking, said Yang Hong, chief designer of Tiangong module series.
DOCKING TESTS
Unlike previous Chinese space vehicles, the Tiangong-1 has a docking facility which allows it to be connected to multiple space modules in order to assemble an experimental station in low Earth orbit.
The Tiangong-1 will orbit the Earth for about one month, awaiting the arrival of the Shenzhou-8 unmanned spacecraft. Once the two vehicles successfully rendezvous, they will conduct the first space docking at a height of 340 kilometers above the earth's surface.
The Tiangong-1 flies at a speed of 7.8 kilometers per second in orbit, which leaves ground-based staff an error of less than 0.12 meter to control the two vehicles to dock in low gravity. China has never tried such test and could not simulate it on the ground.
After two docking tests with the Shenzhou-8, the Tiangong-1 will await Shenzhou-9, to be followed by Shenzhou-10, which will possibly carry a female astronaut, in the next two years, according to the plan for China's manned space program.
If the astronaut in the Shenzhou-10 mission succeeds with the manual space docking, China will become the third nation after the United States and Russia to master the technology.
President Hu Jintao watched the launch from the Beijing Aerospace Flight Control Center on Thursday, two days before China's National Day, witnessing the latest endeavor of China's manned space program since 1992.
Hu told the engineers, commanders and other workers at the control center to do every job in a "more aborative and meticulous" manner to ensure the success of the country's first space docking mission.
Other members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, including Wu Bangguo, Jia Qinglin, Li Changchun, Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang and Zhou Yongkang, were also present.
Premier Wen Jiabao went to the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center to watch the launch process with He Guoqiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee.
Chinese people were inspired by the successful launch.
"The Tiangong-1 has gone into the dark sky! We Chinese are on the way to inhabiting the vast universe," wrote Qichaoxiguanghai on Sina Weibo, China's most popular microblog service provider.
"I heard the news of the Tiangong-1's launch from the radio on a ship to Yangzhou," wrote microblogger Xingfufeiafei. "I am proud to share the pride that shakes the world. The pride of our nation is once again deep in my heart."
THREE PHASES
With a room of 15 cubic meters for two to three astronauts to conduct research and experiments in the future, China's first space lab module is hardly the size of any palace.
But its name Tiangong-1, or "Heavenly Palace-1," speaks of a dream home from Chinese folklore, long envisioned as a secret place where deities reside.
Thanks to an economic boom that has continued since the end of the 1970s, the Chinese government approved and began carrying out its three-phase manned space program in January 1992.
The first phase, to send the first astronaut to space and return safely, was fulfilled by Yang Liwei in the Shenzhou-5 mission in 2003. After another two astronauts made successful extravehicular activities in the Shenzhou-7 mission in 2008, China entered the second phase of its space program: space docking.
If the previous two steps succeed, China plans to develop and launch multiple space modules, with a goal of assembling a 60-tonne manned space station around 2020 in which Chinese astronauts will start more research projects in space.
Premier Wen said at the launch center that the breakthrough in and command of space docking technology marks a significant step forward in China's "three-phase" manned space program.
He encouraged all the participants in the program to do a good job to "win the vital battle of space docking."
The success of Thursday's launch of the Tiangong-1 also eased the pressure on China's space engineers following an unsuccessful lift-off in August when a Long March-2C rocket malfunctioned and failed to send an experimental satellite into orbit.
To acquire a new and bigger rocket capable of loading a future space station's components that will be much heavier than the Tiangong-1, research and development on a carrier rocket that burns more environmentally-friendly liquid-oxygen-kerosene fuels is in progress.
The Long March-5 and -7 carrier rockets with a payload to low Earth orbit of more than 20 tonnes will take test flight as early as 2014, said Song Zhengyu, deputy chief designer of rocket for China's manned space program.
China's progress in space technology is stunning. The Tiangong-1 will dock three spacecraft one after another, which will cost less time and money than docking experiments the U.S. and Russia did.
The space station now still functional is the International Space Station (ISS) initiated by the United States and Russia, which cooperate with other 14 nations at about 360 kilometers above the earth.
However, as the U.S. ended its space shuttle program after the Atlantis' last mission in July, the ISS is scheduled to be plunged into the ocean at the end of its life cycle around 2020, when China is expected to start its era of space station.
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION PLATFORM
Zhang Shancong, deputy chief designer of the Tiangong-1, told Xinhua that the module carries special cameras which will take hyperspectral images of China's vast farmlands to detect heavy metal pollution and pesticide residue as well as plant disease.
Moreover, scientists on the ground will also conduct experiments on photonic crystal, a new material expected to revolutionize information technology, in the low-gravity environment inside the Tiangong-1 as these experiments would be extremely difficult to conduct on the earth's surface.
"China is clearly becoming a global power and its investments in areas like technology and exploration reflect this," said Peter Singer, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution.
"It is a natural result of the growth in political and economic power and is to be expected," Singer said in an interview with Xinhua conducted via email.
"What remains at question is what kind of presence China will play on the international stage, cooperative, working with international partners, or going it alone?" Singer said.
The scholar, however, can find an answer to his question from the words of Zhou Jianping, chief designer of China's manned space program.
Zhou told Xinhua that China will turn its future space station into an international platform for space research and application to share space achievements with partners.
"The Chinese nation has pursued peace since ancient times," Zhou said. "China's ultimate intention with the space program is to explore space resources and make use of them for mankind's well-being."
According to Wu Ping, a spokesperson with China's manned space program, scientists from China and Germany will jointly carry out experiments on space life science at the Shenzhou-8 spacecraft.
A U.S. astronaut on the Atlantis's final mission has said China's first experimental space station will be a welcome addition to the international brotherhood.
"China being in space I think is a great thing. The more nations that get into space, the better cooperation we'll have with each," astronaut Rex Walheim said during an interview with Reuters.
So far China's Long March rocket series has successfully sent more than 20 satellites into space for the United States, Australia, Pakistan and other countries and regions.
One Chinese scientist and five international peers have also participated in Russia's Mars-500 Program, a ground-based experiment simulating a manned expedition to Mars.
Future missions await Tiangong-1
Future missions await Tiangong-1 CCTV News - CNTV EnglishJIUQUAN, Sept. 29 (Xinhua) -- China is working on the development of a new generation of carrier rockets featuring a larger thrust to cater to the demand of building a space station, a chief rocket engineer said Thursday.
"The building of a space station requires carrier rockets with greater thrust as each capsule of the station will weigh about 20 tonnes," said Jing Muchun, chief engineer for the carrier rocket system of China's manned space program.
"We have been preparing for the launch of the space station slated for 2020," Jing told Xinhua.
The Tiangong-1, China's first space lab module, was launched into space by the Long March-2FT1 carrier rocket on Thursday evening, paving the way for a future space station.
A Long March-2FT1 carrier rocket loaded with Tiangong-1 unmanned space lab module blasts off from the launch pad at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in northwest China's Gansu Province, Sept. 29, 2011. (Xinhua/Wang Jianmin) |
Jing's deputy, Song Zhengyu, said the new generation of carrier rockets, represented by the digital and poison- and pollution-free Long March-5 and Long March-7, are expected to make their first lift-offs around 2014.
Song said the technologies applied to the new generation of carrier rockets will mature by 2021 and the existing Long March-2, -3 and -4 series will be replaced sequentially.
China started developing modern carrier rockets in 1956, and the Long March rocket series has become the mainstream carriers for launching China's satellites.
The Long March rockets currently fall into four categories, namely Long March-1, -2, -3 and -4.
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China Successfully Launches 1st Space Lab Module Into Orbit for Docking Tests
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