What is the best hedge against inflation?

`   

Then there are newer and more interesting physical and luxury items that isn’t part of the financial markets which appeared to hold the value very well. Minted limited edition Lego sets, select Hermes and Chanel handbags as well as tier-one luxury watch brands such as Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet and Rolex are such examples.

The challenge is finding a suitable asset class that is palatable to one’s risk tolerance, investment horizon and financial capability. This is why there are many varieties of asset classes in the financial markets that serve different purposes.
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` IF you have savings of RM100,000 or Rm1mil, how would you utilise this amount of money to preserve your wealth?
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` It is a legitimate question but increasingly pressing as globally, countries around the world are facing inflationary pressure due to the effects of loose monetary policies for the past two years.
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` While not everyone is passionate about the financial markets or macroeconomics, most would be concern if they were to know the value of their money or hard-earned savings are increasingly eroded daily through no fault of theirs.
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` The common method adopted by most would be to assess how much ringgit is worth against foreign currencies like US dollar, Singapore dollar, British pound and the likes. Another would be the actual purchasing power of your money. Combining both, it becomes the formula of purchasing power parity.
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` I have written an article in this column last year using the Big Mac Index to illustrate inflationary effects. Today, as inflation is already here, I prefer to dwell into how individuals can protect their savings from inflation itself.
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` Some would argue, they live in solitary and would hardly be impacted even if the ringgit weakened substantially. However, even one who does not travel abroad and lives entirely within the domestic ecosystem cannot run away from the impact of inflation.
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` As the world economy is a huge interlinked web, connected via global trades, inflationary pressure can be imported through the transaction of goods or the fact that our country has foreign debts. There is no absolute way of shielding in entirety.
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` Ceiling price for necessities and list of controlled items are what government of the day do to ensure some level of protection for the citizens but if market forces react otherwise, government intervention in itself is not sufficient to push back. This is proven even in the strictest communist or socialist regime around the world, such as North Korea.
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` The only way to hedge against inflation is to engage in some form of investment. In the past, real estate has always been recognised as one of the best asset classes to preserve wealth and hedge against inflation. This ageold wisdom has survived through thousands of years and civilisations.
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` New asset class

` As the society evolves and modern economy takes shape, there is now the creation of new asset class which in the past either simply do not exist or wouldn’t make sense to invest substantially. The more common form of investments are the likes of bonds, gold, fixed deposits and equities.

` Then came mutual funds and index-linked funds. Exchange-traded funds in recent years became wildly popular, especially when active investment returns did not provide the same kind of returns it once did.

` This gained traction for those who are mostly passive investors or do not have the time to do individual stock picking. Yet, despite all the asset classes mentioned above, these are all considered relatively acceptable to most people.

` With the millennials and Gen-z being in the workforce, technology have taken centrestage in every part of our lives even when it comes to asset classes. Cryptocurrency, non-fungible tokens (NFTS) and digital assets have made its way into mainstream financial markets where investment banks, which traditionally scoffs at such assets, have now become a part of the frenzy.
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` Advocates of cryptocurrency, for instance, goes as far as calling it a hedge against inflation or hedge against “fiat currency” or the “new gold”.
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` Traditional asset classes highlighted above are seen as out-of-date by the new crop of investors, whoever they are and wherever they may come from. I do not wish to debate the utility and viability of cryptocurrency, NFTS or digital assets. However, the big question to me though is, what truly constitutes a hedge against inflation?
`
` For an asset class to constitute a hedge against inflation, the more fundamental aspect is for the asset class to consistently outperform annual inflationary pressure. For example, if the inflation rate is 4% per annum over 10 years, the asset class that one invest in must outperform 4% per annum consistently across the same period.
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` This asset class will then effectively hedge and protect the value of your money over a substantial duration of time.
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` The challenge is finding a suitable asset class that is palatable to one’s risk tolerance, investment horizon and financial capability. This is why there are many varieties of asset classes in the financial markets that serve different purposes.
`
` Bonds and gold are good for those with low-risk appetite but do not expect spectacular returns from these asset class. In fact, many have questioned whether bonds and gold can still preserve value although this has been proven in the past during wars and turbulent times.

 ` Luxury items
`
` Then there are newer and more interesting physical and luxury items that isn’t part of the financial markets which appeared to hold the value very well. Minted limited edition Lego sets, select Hermes and Chanel handbags as well as tier-one luxury watch brands such as Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet and Rolex are such examples.
`
` An unopened Lego set delivers an average annual return of 11%. A Hermes Birkin has seen an average annual increase in price of 14% from 1980 to 2015. This is in comparison to the returns of gold at -2.1% and S&P 500 at 11.7% over the same period.
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` For the Chanel Classic Medium Flap bag, the price has increased over the past 31 years, from US$1,150 (RM4,817) in 1990 to US$8,800 (RM36,858) in 2021. This gives an average annual return of 21.4% and a compound annual growth rate of 6.8% throughout the period.
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` If we look at watches, the retail price of stainless steel sports watches have gone crazy in recent years. A Phillipe Patek Nautilus, which retailed at US$3,100 (RM12,985) in 1976 when it was first introduced, is retailing at today US$35,000 (RM146,485)
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` What is more frightening is the secondary market or grey market pricing for these luxury goods due to the sheer difficulty of getting one at retail price.
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` A standard Hermes Birkin sized 25 retails at around US$10,000 (RM41,885) but in the secondary market, it can fetch as high as US$25,000 (RM104,713). The Patek Nautilus in a grey market commands close to US$175,000 (RM733,000). The classic Rolex Submariner date steel, which retails at US$10,800 (RM45,236), commands a huge premium in the grey market at around US$20,000 (RM83,770).
`>
` Some may argue that these are the tactical strategy by the ultra-luxury brands to restrict supply and cause a demand shortage in order to drive up the price, making it a highly desirable product.

` However, the counter argument is the fact that these top range luxury brands are handcrafted and requires the hours to produce the finish product. The limited resources coupled with the need to ensure quality also limits supply.

` In the face of a rising affluent class and burgeoning upper-middle class globally, naturally these luxury brands become highly sought after. Once the second-hand market is able to preserve the value, it becomes a hedge against inflation.

` My biggest takeaway though is not which asset class would be the best hedge against inflation. Rather, even within each asset class, it requires homework, due diligence and careful selection in terms of investment to preserve wealth. Making the right decision to purchase or invest needs time and effort
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` Not all that glitters are gold and in this case, selected steel watches may be worth more than a pure gold watch. So, choose the asset class that you can best understand and would be happy to hold over time in the face of inflation.

NG ZHU HANN Ng Zhu Hann is the author of “Once Upon A Time In Bursa”. He is a lawyer and former chief strategist of a Fortune 500 Corp. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.

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Generating sustainable retirement income

 

Generating sustainable retirement income

 

Many Malaysian are EPF contributors and have FDs as well. "You will never understand how bad the feeling is when you have to break your fixed deposit to cover your living expenses."

ONE of the top financial concerns of retirees is running out of money.

Whether you were an executive earning a reasonable income, or if you are making top dollars as a businessman, the fear is still valid.

For example, Tommy, who left the working world soon after selling his factory to a European multinational corporation. Tommy shared during one of our meetings that he was golfing every week and globe trotting almost every other month.

However, there was a problem that greatly bothered him. He found that he was dipping into his fixed deposit every now and then just to maintain his interesting lifestyle.

“Yap, you will never understand how bad the feeling is when you have to break your fixed deposit to cover your living expenses, ” he said.Combing through all of his finances, we discovered that Tommy’s lackadaisical attitude was to be blamed. He has not been paying enough attention to invest and generate income from the RM12mil nest egg that he had painstakingly accumulated. His investment portfolio was a mess.

Over the years, he invested in a few properties but never really bothered to oversee them. When tenants left, he didn’t make an effort to secure new tenants. In fact, some properties were even sitting vacant and idle. His excuse? He was too busy running the business.

Yap Ming HuiYap Ming Hui

Tommy has also invested in some shares and unit trusts but he seldom monitors and reviews their performances. Imagine his surprise when he went looking for some extra cash but discovered that most of the investments were not making money. Prior to meeting me, he couldn’t decide whether to sell or to keep those underperforming investments.

Consequently, the bulk of Tommy’s wealth is in fixed deposit. The trouble is the interest income from fixed deposit barely covers the impact of inflation. As such, if Tommy continues to spend on his interest income, he will risk having the principal depleted.

Asset rich, income poor

Tommy’s problem is a typical case of “Asset Rich, Income Poor.” His situation is definitely not unique. In fact, I find most self-made millionaires or business owners, typically strong at creating wealth from their business or professional career, but poor at generating income and gain from the created wealth.

For one, all the time spent ensuring their businesses succeed also takes them away from making sure that the wealth created is optimised.Let’s examine Tommy’s assets and see how it measures up (see chart).

The RM6mil in fixed deposit generate approximately 2% interest income. However, notice that the 2% of interest is not sufficient to offset the 4% inflation provision. As a result, there is negative net income coming from Tommy’s fixed deposit asset.

Tommy’s properties are worth RM3mil and only generates RM50,000 in rental income per annum. Nevertheless, this can be considered a net income because inflation will be hedged by capital appreciation (at least 4% per annum) of the properties.

The RM1mil in shares gives a total return of 5%. Factoring 4% inflation, the actual income received from share investment is RM10,000.

Unfortunately, the RM2mil unit trust investments didn’t offer any returns. After inflation provision, his unit trust investment has a net income of RM80,000.

The reality is if nothing is done now, Tommy’s wealth will continue to shrink by RM140,000 a year once inflation is factored to the equation. How does this play out for Tommy? The fact that he needs RM360,000 a year to maintain his current lifestyle will not augur well for him.

So, how can you prevent from ending up in Tommy’s situation?

The optimisation measures

> Remember to review the performance of each of your investment asset classes. In order to generate more income and gains, be proactive in getting rid of poor quality and poor performing investments. Look at each investment and ask yourself, should you keep it or should you sell?

> Consider moving fixed deposit into higher return investment.

Any gains from your fixed deposit would probably be eroded by inflation, especially given the current low interest, which will probably persist for quite some time. After calculating and providing for your emergency fund cash reserves, the balance of your fixed deposit should be invested into other investments that can generate higher return and income to hedge against inflation.

> Diversify the source of retirement income

Even if one investment asset can give you a good income and hedge against inflation, it does not mean that you must bet all or the majority of your wealth in it. For example, property investing. Some investors have found success in it. They were able to generate good capital appreciation and rental income.

As a result, they put a majority, if not all, of their wealth into properties. It may sound logical at first but rental income is not sustainable in the long run. It is subjected to changes, some of which cannot be controlled. Therefore, the best practice is still to diversify your retirement income across different asset classes, like share dividends and capital gains, unit trust gains, bond investment gains, retirement income products and others, so that it is not badly affected by any one impact.

The ability to grow your wealth during retirement years is important. Just because you have stopped working, it does not mean your money should stop working too. The idea behind wealth optimisation is to ensure that you can upkeep your retirement lifestyle and protect your wealth from inflation.

Ideally, one should get a plan done a few years prior to retirement to see how your retirement income would play out. After all, you wouldn’t want to have any unpleasant surprise, like in Tommy’s case. When you have time on your side, you can improve your investing skills and adjust your retirement plan accordingly while still in your active income earning years.

Yap Ming Hui is a licensed financial planner. The views expressed here are the author’s. Any reliance you place on the information https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/01/09/generating-sustainable-retirement-incomeshared is therefore strictly at your own risk.

 

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