Malaysia's General Election 13 to be survival of the fittest

It’s all a matter of endurance. Given the stakes, tensions have also heightened. Both sides have a great deal to lose. 

WE are entering the final straight. Whether the date of the actual polling day is in June, July, September or even next year, the finishing line is fast approaching.

It’s all a matter of endurance. Who can best manage their own resources and minimise their weaknesses? Whose “messaging” is the most focused and sustained?

Given the stakes, tensions have also heightened. Both sides have a great deal to lose.

As Tun Daim Zainuddin said a few months ago, the contest between Pakatan Rakyat and Barisan Nasional is much like an extended game of tennis – with victory going to the side that commits the least unforced errors.

In this respect Barisan would appear to be gaining the lead. Pakatan’s lack of access to the mainstream media further undermines the challenger’s chances.

Last week’s resignation of DAP Senator and vice-president Tunku Abdul Aziz Ibrahim and PAS’ continued call for the introduction of the syariah have raised doubts about Pakatan’s ability to hold the middle-ground.

But there are also real dangers in trying to “read” the election outcome from the mainstream media. Official controls will always tend to magnify Pakatan’s mistakes whilst minimising Barisan’s missteps and only a fool would ignore the Internet’s ubiquitous presence.

At the same time, the vast numbers of new voters have injected an enormous degree of uncertainty into the game.

It is as if Tun Daim’s tennis game had been crossed with a Sony Wii as well as a Pentagon battle-ground simulator: permutations are the new “norm”.

No one knows for certain where these young people will cast their ballots. As Ben Suffian of Merdeka Centre explains: “They lack the loyalty of their parents. They are better informed and more sceptical: arbitraging on news and events.”

But when all is said and done, the voters are faced with four fundamental decisions when they’re dealing with Barisan, which are as follows:

> Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak: Should the Malaysians reward or punish him? Have his reforms satisfied the voting public? Conversely, has he been too weak in the face of non-Malay demands? Does Bersih 3.0 accurately reflect popular sentiment? Does he deserve to better Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s 2008 result? Will we reward him with the constitutional majority? Can his personal popularity (much like Abdullah’s at the same stage of the 2008 scenario) strengthen his hold on power?

> Umno: For over five decades – the United Malays National Organisation has been the parti kerajaan – the party of Government with its supreme council meetings surpassing Cabinet in terms of “real” authority? Is the automatic identification of party and government (along with all the attendant patronage) coming to an end? Or is it merely a case of the parti kerajaan becoming a parti politik no different from PAS and PKR? Is Umno’s supremacy finished?

> Barisan Nasional: Can the alliance remain intact if the country’s second largest community, the Chinese, remove their support? Is an Umno-dominated coalition sustainable? Are we witnessing the end of the so-called unwritten consensus that has brought us thus far? What will be the substitute?

> Malaysia: Will the 13th General Election see the firming up of the two-coalition system or its demise? Are we Malaysians comfortable with the level of checks and balances that have entered our political lexicon since 2008 or do we wish to return to the past – entrusting the Barisan, unreservedly with our future?

March 8, 2008 was a surprise result. It upset our (and especially my) lazy assumptions.

Will the upcoming polls see this becoming the new normal or will we return to the status quo ante? I will try my best to cover these dilemmas. But then again, if we refer to Tun Daim’s tennis analogy and the doubts raised by Bersih, another major question surrounds the “rules of the game” – who determines the players, especially the millions of new voters?

CERITALAH  By KARIM RASLAN

Thiel's college dropout plan in bubble education

Thiel's college dropout plan scrutinized by '60 Minutes'

Investor and entrepreneur tells the CBS news magazine that a college degree is unnecessary for financial success, but critics call his program an elitist ploy. 

Billionaire investor Peter Thiel.

Peter Thiel's plan to pay college students to develop their promising concepts instead of attending to school is attracting students as well as critics.

Best known as a co-founder of PayPal, the Silicon Valley investor and entrepreneur has also made early-stage investments in companies such as Facebook, LinkedIn, and Yelp. Now he's investing in college students, awarding fellowships of $100,000 each to youth under 20 years old, essentially encouraging them to drop out of college to become entrepreneurs.

In an interview for tonight's "60 Minutes," Thiel tells Morley Safer that his program is a viable alternative to what he sees as a largely ineffective university system in which costs far outweigh benefits.

"We have a bubble in education, like we had a bubble in housing...everybody believed you had to have a house, they'd pay whatever it took," says Thiel. "Today, everybody believes that we need to go to college, and people will pay -- whatever it takes."

He also notes that a college degree is not necessary to land a high-paying job.

"There are all sorts of vocational careers that pay extremely well today, so the average plumber makes as much as the average doctor," Thiel tells Safer.

Critics call Thiel's plan an elitist ploy that only encourages others to drop out or not attend college at all.

"Peter Thiel has made so much money that he is out of touch with the real world," Vivek Wadhwa, an entrepreneur who teaches at Duke and Stanford, told Safer. "He doesn't understand how important education is for the masses."

"What I worry about is a message that's getting out there to America that it's okay to drop out of school, that you don't have to get college. Absolutely dead wrong."

"60 Minutes" airs at 7 p.m. PT/ET on CBS stations. Full segment embedded below.

by Steven Musil
Steven Musil is the night news editor at CNET News. Before joining CNET News in 2000, Steven spent 10 years at various Bay Area newspapers.  

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Debt crisis in Europe will affect rest of the world

The economic crisis in Europe is deepening and may get worse, with worrisome effects on the rest of the world.

Eurozone crisis: high-stakes gamble as David Cameron warns Greek voters.

David Cameron and European Commission president José Manuel Barroso talk before a session at the Nato summit in Chicago. Photograph: Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP

THE economic situation in Europe has worsened considerably in the past week, giving rise to a very worrisome situation.

The ramifications of a full-blown crisis are serious not only for Europe but also the rest of the world.

The recent Greek elections saw the citizens proclaiming their anger towards the austerity policies tied to the European-IMF bail-out package, by repudiating the two major parties and giving the small anti-austerity Syriza party second place.

The elections came in the midst of a greatly deteriorating condition. Greece has 22% unemployment, 50% youth unemployment, GNP is falling steeply, and public debt will remain high at 160% of GDP next year despite the recent bailout and debt-restructuring measures.

The leader of Syriza, Alexis Tsipras, who swept to the forefront of Greek politics on the wind of protest against the austerity measures imposed by creditors, wants to re-negotiate the terms of the bailout.

He thinks his insistence on this will eventually force the creditors to change the terms, with Greece remaining in the Eurozone.

But many analysts think that the response to this demand from the EU and IMF would be to stop further loans and force Greece to exit the Euro. In a second election in mid-June, Syriza is expected to do even better and a messy Greek loan default and Euro exit are now seen as more than just possible.

In a Eurozone exit, Greece would re-introduce a local currency, and after Greeks change from their Euros, a depreciation of the new currency is expected to happen.

News report indicate that some capital flight from Greece is already taking place, as Greeks fear that their present Euro-denominated assets would lose value after conversion to the local currency.

Meanwhile, Spain was last week desperately trying to avoid a run on banks after the government was forced to partly nationalise Bankia, the second largest bank, followed by rumours of such a run.

The value of bad loans held by the banking sector rose one third in the past year to 148 billion Euro and Moody’s downgraded the credit rating of many Spanish banks.

The Spanish finance minister Luis de Guindos said the battle for the Euro is going to be waged in Spain, implying his country is now in front in trying to prevent the Greek crisis from infecting other European countries and bringing down the Euro.

The spreading crisis throws into doubt the policies in most European countries that have in recent years focused on drastically cutting government spending to reduce the budget deficit in an attempt to pacify investors and enable a continued flow of loans.

This reversed the coordinated policy of fiscal reflation that the G20 leaders agreed on in 2009 to counter the global crisis. It contributed to the rapid recovery.

Since then economists and politicians alike have been debating the merits of Keynesian reflationary policies versus a resumption of IMF-type fiscal austerity.

The movement towards recession in Europe as a whole and deep falls in GNP in bail-out countries like Greece has boosted the arguments of the Keynesians.

But key leaders such as Angela Merkel of Germany and David Cameron of Britain are still convinced of the need to stick to austerity.

The victory of the new French President Francois Hollande and the stunning polls performance of the Syriza party in Greece indicate that the public wind has shifted radically against austerity, and that a change may be on the cards.

The stopping of loans to Greece would lead to an economic collapse, with government debt default, bank runs, re-denomination of local contracts to local currency and default on external contracts denominated in euro, in a scenario painted by Wolf.

A Greek exit could trigger bank runs and capital flight in Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain and beyond, causing collapse in asset prices and large GNP falls.



A decisive European response is needed, such as the European Central Bank providing unlimited loans to replace money taken out in bank runs, capping of interest rates on sovereign debt, Eurobonds and abandoning austerity-centred policies.

But if these policies are not taken, the Eurozone may disintegrate, with one study suggesting GNP falls on 7% to 13% in various countries, and if a full Eurozone break up takes place there could be a freeze in the financial system, a collapse in spending and trade, many lawsuits and Europe facing a situation of political limbo.

The impact on the world would be worse than the Lehman collapse. Though the implication is that this should not be allowed, a Greek exit would greatly increase the likelihood of these dangers.

If Greece leaves, the Eurozone will have to change fundamentally but if that is impossible, large crises will be repeated in a nightmare.

There would have to be a choice between a stronger union of European countries (which many do not like) or endless crises in future, or a break up now. No good choices exist, concludes Wolf.

The scenarios and predictions detailed above in the Wolf article are pessimistic, but may also be realistic not only because of the current economic situation, but also the apparent lack of conditions for a political solution.

Watching from the sidelines, with no ability to influence developments, many in the developing countries are disturbed by the turn of events. It will likely lead to a weakening of the global economy at best and a full blown crisis at worst, with the developing countries at the receiving end in terms of trade downturn, financial reverberations, and declining incomes and jobs.

It is apparent, once again, that a global forum should exist where all countries can discuss developments in the global economy and contribute their views on what needs to be done.

In the inter-connected world, policies and events in one part (especially in the core countries) affect all others.

 

 Global Trends By MARTIN KHOR

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US market ahead: major signs say ‘sell’, the Facebook effect

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Normally a big decline would set up Wall Street for a technical rebound. But that may not be the case this week, even after the market posted its worst weekly loss for the year and the S&P fell for six straight sessions.

With the corporate earnings season drawing to an end and recent U.S. economic data raising doubts about the pace of growth, the S&P 500, which is down 7.3 percent so far in May, could decline further this week as concerns about the financial health of Europe persist.

"What has changed in the world since April? We went from hearing a constant refrain that the world is awash in money and markets must go higher to hearing nobody wants to take any risk ... All in a week," said Peter Cecchini, global head of institutional equity derivatives at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co in New York.

The S&P 500 fell 4.3 percent for the week, its steepest weekly decline this year, and closed below 1,300 for the first time in four months.

The hotly awaited market debut of Facebook on Friday was marred by technology glitches on the Nasdaq in sending messages back to the brokerages that handled orders of Facebook Inc for individual, or "retail," investors. Those problems rekindled fears about the market's electronic trading system and caused some investors to stay away from equities.

Weighing on sentiment is a growing sense among investors that the euro zone debt crisis is nearing new heights, fueled by fears of the potential for a Greek euro exit and the deteriorating health of the Spanish banking system.

Solid corporate earnings and upbeat U.S. economic indicators had fueled the rally in U.S. stocks, offsetting jitters over Europe. But with earnings almost out of the way and data starting to disappoint, investors have shifted their focus back to headlines out of Europe.

Leaders of the Group of 8 major industrial economies were meeting this weekend to try to tackle the financial crisis in Europe. U.S. President Barack Obama, the G8 host, has urged European leaders repeatedly to do more to stimulate growth, fearing contagion from the euro crisis that could hurt the U.S. economy and his chances of re-election in November.

"The market is extremely oversold. Nonetheless, all major indicators remain on sell signals," Larry McMillan, president of options research firm McMillan Analysis Corp, said in a report on Friday.

"We expect a powerful but short-lived rally should be coming soon. But at this point, barring some major shifts in our indicators, it may only be a rally in a larger down-trending market," McMillian said.

THE FACEBOOK EFFECT 

Facebook, the No. 1 online social network, disappointed investors with a tepid market debut on Friday. Shares rose a scant 0.6 percent - nowhere near expectations for double-digit gains on the first trading day - and the day was marred by technical problems due to huge order volume. The stock closed at $38.23 after falling as low as $38, its initial offer price.

The disappointing debut curbed investors' appetite for other social media stocks. Hardest hit was Zynga Inc , which closed down 13.4 percent to $7.16 after falling as low as $6.40. The stock was temporarily halted twice due to sudden declines.

LinkedIn shares fell 5.7 percent to $99.02, and Groupon fell 6.7 percent to $11.58. Zynga and Groupon, both of which went public late last year, are also trading below their IPO prices.

Despite the disappointing market debut and the weak performance of social media stocks, market participants are still optimistic about Facebook going forward.

"In any brand new area, social media in this case, most are going to be losers and only some are going to be winners. Yes, the IPO was disappointing, but Facebook is clearly the winner here and others aren't," said Randy Warren, chief investment strategist at Warren Financial Service.

The coming week's economic data includes April's existing home sales on Tuesday at 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT). Existing home sales are forecast at a 4.60 million-unit annual, up from 4.48 million in March.

New homes sales figures are due on Wednesday at 10 a.m. EDT. April's new home sales are also expected to post an increase, gaining about 7,000 units over a 328,000-unit annual rate in March.

Initial jobless claims and durable goods orders will be published on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Consumer sentiment is due at 9:55 a.m. on Friday.

For the week, the Dow was off 3.5 percent and the Nasdaq was down 5.3 percent.

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Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg "Likes" Chan and Weds 1 day after IPO

Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg has ended a hectic week which saw his company valued at £106bn after a stock market flotation by getting married.

Zuckerberg has updated his relationship status to "married"

He wed his long-time girlfriend Priscilla Chan, 27, in a ceremony at his home in Palo Alto, California.

Chan also had a busy week, graduating from medical school on Monday, as Zuckerberg marked his 28th birthday.

The guests believed they were going to celebrate Chan's graduation - but found they were at a wedding instead.

The wedding ring, a "very simple ruby", was designed by Zuckerberg.

Nine years ago the pair met at Harvard, where Zuckerberg founded Facebook in 2004.

They later moved to California, where Facebook has its headquarters, and Chen studied at the medical school of the University of California, San Francisco.

On Monday, Zuckerberg turned 28 and Chan graduated from the University of California, San Francisco School of Medicine, where she'd studied pediatrics.

Then on Friday, Zuckerberg took his blue-and-white web behemoth public in one of the most anticipated stock offerings in Wall Street history.

The seemingly well-coordinated timing was largely a coincidence, the guest said. The wedding had been planned for months and the couple was waiting for Chan to finish medical school, but the date of the IPO was a "moving target" not known when the wedding was set.

Attendees, including Facebook's chief operating officer Sheryl Sandberg, were told after they arrived that they were not mere party guests but wedding guests.

"Everybody was shocked," the guest said.

The person would not discuss the names of others who attended to protect their privacy.

Ditching his trademark hoodie and sneakers, Zuckerberg sported a dark blue suit and tie with a white shirt for the ceremony, while Chan wore a traditional white wedding dress with veil and lace.

Food was served family-style and included dishes from the couple's favorite Palo Alto sushi restaurant.

Zuckerberg met Chan at Harvard, where he founded Facebook in a dorm room in 2004, and have been together for more than nine years.

Chan's own Facebook page, which now lists her as married to the founder, said she is a native of Braintree, Mass., and attended high school in nearby Quincy.

She graduated Harvard in 2007 then taught science to fourth and fifth graders at the Harker School in San Jose for two years before starting medical school, according to her profile.

Her page also says she "loves cooking and soft things."

Even after the IPO, Zuckerberg, who grew up in Dobbs Ferry, N.Y., remains Facebook's single largest shareholder, with 503.6 million shares, and he controls the company with 56% of its voting stock.

The site has grown into a worldwide network of almost a billion people and made its founder, Time magazine's Person of the Year in 2010, one of the most famous businessmen of the Internet age.

Facebook's valuation after its flotation on Friday means the social network site is worth about the same as internet shopping giant Amazon, and more than the value of stalwarts such as Disney.

Even after the flotation, Zuckerberg continues to control just under 56% of the voting power of the company.

Zuckerberg "Likes" Chan and Weds

 
In a quiet backyard celebration Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook married his long-time girlfriend, Pricilla Chan at his home in Palo Alto, CA today.  Guests were told they were celebrating Chan’s graduation from medical school and were shocked to learn that the event was actually a wedding. The bride graduated from University of California San Francisco with a doctorate earlier this week, on the same day as Zuckerberg’s birthday. About 100 guests attended the affair.

Zuckerberg tipped off the press to the nupials when he changed his status to “married” on his Facebook page.  He shared the photo above on his Facebook page and on his timeline, along with a photo from the stock exchange. AP reported the story.

The bride wore an elegant long, white wedding dress with a delicate lace overlay. The wedding ring was simple ruby, designed by Zuckerberg. The groom wore a serious dark suit with a narrow tie, not his casual garb with his signature hoodie.

The wedding was the final ceremony of a bruising week that included the highly-anticipated IPO of Facebook, which broke records on market capitalization for internet companies.

The couple dated for eight years before the wedding. They met at Harvard University when Facebook was in its early phases. They had been planning the wedding for months and decided to wait until after Chan graduated. The timing was not related to the date of Facebook IPO, which had been in flux for weeks due to SEC delays. Zuckerberg turned 28 this week and Chan is 27.

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Facebook Seeks Political Ad Dollars

Published by MIT

Political advertisers are going to flock to FB this year  

There’s certainly money in politics, and Facebook knows it. The company, now under pressure to to justify its enormous $104 billion IPO, is trying to hire someone to maximize political advertising sales during the 2012 election season in the U.S.

“The Client Partner will establish and strengthen key relationships with national political campaigns and organizations with a focus on driving revenue, platform adoption, advertiser education, and advertiser satisfaction,” the posting on Facebook's website says.

How much money is in politics for Facebook? That's hard to say. But with the rise of the Super PAC, campaign spending on advertising will likely reach record-breaking levels this year. A growing percentage of that is moving online, in part because fewer people are watching live TV than during previous election years, according to the global ad agency WPP. The Hill reports that the Obama campaign alone is on track to spend $35 million on total online advertising this year, up from $16 million in 2008.

Unlike other advertisers that have questioned the value of Facebook this week, both the Romney and Obama presidential campaigns are likely to appreciate Facebook's importance. It had 40 million U.S. users in 2008 compared with 160 million today—almost the entire American voting public, according to The Guardian.

So, yes, we’ll be seeing a lot more politics in and next to our News Feeds over the next few months, targeted based on our activity and our friends' activity on the network. Whether the lifting of corporate spending limits on political campaigns, a result of a Supreme Court decision in 2010, will actually be a meaningful boost Facebook’s bottom line this year is unknown. The company’s total advertising revenue worldwide was about $3 billion in 2011.

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Consumers' Debt trap of payday loans in UK

 
A third of people experienced greater financial problems as a result of taking out a payday loan, according to Which?

Payday loans are trapping increasing numbers of consumers in a downward spiral of debt caused by exorbitant penalty charges, a consumer group has warned.

More than 60pc of people who take out payday loans are using the money for household bills or buying other essentials like food, nappies and petrol, a survey by Which? found.

The figures show an "alarming" picture of people trapped in debt caused by penalty charges because they cannot afford to pay back the loan on time, the watchdog said.

A quarter (25pc) of those who had taken out loans said they had been hit with hidden charges such as high fees for reminder letters, and one in five (18pc) were not able to pay back their loan on time.

A third of people (33pc) experienced greater financial problems as a result of taking out a payday loan, and 45pc of them were hit with unexpected charges.

Which? said the debt trap was compounded with 57pc being encouraged to take out further loans and 45pc rolling over their loans at least once.

A third of people (33pc) were bombarded with unsolicited calls, texts and emails before they had even signed an agreement.

The investigation of 34 payday loans companies' websites also found that customers could face a £150 charge by one company, Quid24.com, if they repaid their loan 10 days late. Most of the companies failed to show clearly their charges or charged excessive amounts for defaulting.

Consumers were also potentially being allowed to take on credit they could not afford, with eight out of 34 companies failing to carry out any credit checks as part of their approval procedure and nearly two-thirds of those surveyed not asked about any aspect of their financial situation apart from their salary.

Some websites failed to provide any terms and conditions and many of those that did had little or no information about a borrower's rights and obligations or references to free debt advice.

Which? is calling on the Office of Fair Trading to enforce existing consumer credit and lending rules that already apply to payday loans firms and to restrict the default charges that payday loans companies can charge.

Which? executive director Richard Lloyd said: "With 1.2 million people taking out a payday loan last year, it is unacceptable for this rapidly growing number of people to be inadequately protected from extortionate charges and dodgy marketing techniques.

"At its worst, this booming £2bn industry can be seriously bad news for borrowers who are struggling to afford food or pay their bills. People are getting caught up in a debt trap, whacked with high penalty charges, or encouraged to roll over payments and take out more loans at inflated rates.

"The regulator should properly enforce the existing rules that apply to this industry, but they must go further and impose a cap on the amount that lenders can charge for defaulting.

The Government should also now explore other ways to protect hard-pressed borrowers, including Australian-style measures to cap costs and promote affordable alternatives."

Consumer Focus director of financial services Sarah Brooks said: "This research throws up some extremely troubling findings and poses many uncomfortable questions about the growing payday loan sector.

We have long held concerns about the behaviour of some payday lenders and whether consumers are losing out because this industry is not regulated strongly enough.

"Our research in 2010 showed problems with inadequate affordability checks and borrowers being offered multiple new loans or roll-overs on existing loans. Which?'s findings suggest that problems have worsened in this industry and that more borrowers are finding themselves caught in debt traps. Millions are turning to these loans in the current economic climate and it is usually those on lower incomes that suffer most.

"This work is timely given the OFT's compliance review of payday lenders. There is clearly a continuing problem with payday loans and this should give further incentive, if any is needed, for the OFT to act quickly to protect consumers from spiralling debt." Telegrah

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