Japan's economy contracts

Aggressive: Japan has been warned that its expansionary monetary policy could affect that country’s future growth as a weak yen could undercut Korean exporters’ competitiveness. — EPA

TOKYO: Japan's economy unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter, failing to escape a mild recession and playing into the hands of a government pushing for more aggressive monetary expansion that's drawn international criticism.

While a 0.1% drop in output defied expectations of a slight uptick after two quarters of contraction, economists expect the economy will slowly recover this year with the help of bolder monetary and fiscal stimulus and an improving global economy.

The Bank of Japan also struck a more positive note on the economy while keeping its policy on hold after it boosted its monetary stimulus and doubled its inflation target to 2% a month ago.

Markets, however, have no doubt that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will keep pushing the central bank for more, given the still fragile state of the economy. A return to rising prices also appears far off after nearly two decades of low-grade deflation.

Those expectations for further easing have sent the yen into retreat, driving it down nearly 20% against the dollar since November and stirring an international debate over whether Japan was effectively using aggressive money printing to steer the yen lower.

Tokyo has defended its action, saying its policies are aimed at pulling the country out of deflation, not at nudging down the yen, and governor Masaaki Shirakawa is expected to reinforce that argument when he will attend his last Group of 20 finance leaders' meeting in Moscow this weekend.

Japan has said the Group of Seven rich nations accepted Tokyo's view when it declared in a statement on Tuesday that fiscal and monetary policies would not be directed at devaluing currencies.

But remarks from former BoJ governor Kazumasa Iwata yesterday are likely to rekindle the international debate on Tokyo's true motives.

The yen is still overvalued from a trade perspective and the reversal of the currency's strength is essential for the BoJ to achieve its 2% inflation target, Iwata was quoted as saying by a Japanese ruling party official.

Iwata, considered one of the leading candidates to replace Shirakawa when he leaves his post in March, said the dollar at 95 yen was appropriate. Iwata heads a private economics think-tank and now has no policymaking role.

Abe and his cabinet have the right to fill three top BoJ posts when Shirakawa and his two deputies leave on March 19 and is widely expected to pick advocates of more aggressive central bank action than the cautious outgoing chief, keeping downward pressure on the yen.

The dollar traded around 93.50 yen yesterday after hitting a 33-month high of about 94.47 yen on Monday.

South Korea's central bank has warned that Japan's expansionary monetary policy could affect that country's future growth as a weak yen could undercut Korean exporters' competitiveness.

As widely expected, the central bank maintained its overnight call rate target at a range of zero to 0.1% by a unanimous vote, and held off expanding its asset buying and lending programme, while offering a rosier view of the economy than just a month ago.

“Japan's economy appears to be bottoming out,” it said. In January, the BoJ said the economy was weakening.

The world's third largest economy contracted for the third consecutive quarter in October-December, showing Japan was taking longer to escape from a mild recession. - Reuters

Ad strategy wins sweethearts

 

Proposa l placement: Xteven and Rachel looking through The Star.

IPOH: A 29-year-old company manager proposed to his sweetheart by declaring his love through a newspaper advertisement.

Xteven Teoh Hoe Seong (sic), from Gunung Rapat here, said he got the idea after finding out that one could place an advertisement in the Celebrations page in The Star.

Teoh, who works in Shah Alam, Selangor, said he believed the advertisement was more romantic than going down on bended knee to propose to the love of his life, Rachel Choo Lai Ying.

Teoh and Choo, 27, who have been courting for nine years, will marry on Sept 15. They first met when they were cadets with St John Ambulance in their respective schools.

“About three years ago, we broke up for about six months due to some misunderstanding, but deep down we knew we were made for each other and got back together.

“At that time she was studying in Australia, and during the mooncake festival I sent her four pieces, ” he said here yesterday.

On Feb 10, the Sunday Star published Teoh's advertisement with the couple's photograph and his proposal to Choo: “Will you marry me? Let me take care of you for the rest of our life.”

Teoh also made a short video-clip on his Facebook page declaring his love for her.

The clip starts with Teoh coming up with the words “Most of the Chinese newspaper companies are shut, and the only newspaper I can find in 7-11 is The Star, so go to page 47 and Rachel Choo you will find this” (referring to the ad).

Choo, a sales executive working in Puchong, Selangor, said she was shocked to see the advertisement in The Star.

“I was a bit suspicious when a few friends persuaded me to look out for an advertisement. After flipping page after page, I saw the ad. I was so touched by the proposal that I immediately said Yes',” said Choo who is from First Garden, near here.

By MANJIT KAUR manjit@thestar.com.my

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Why North Korea conducts nuclear test?

The fallout from North Korea’s nuclear test will reach beyond its neighbours to the south. AAP/Yonhap



Overnight North Korea conducted its third nuclear weapons test. The test came in the wake of a successful long-range rocket launch in December and resulting condemnation from the United Nations Security Council via UNSC Resolution 2087.

This latest development raises two obvious questions: Why did North Korea conduct the test, and how might the international community react?

Pyongyang’s motives

The seismic signature of this blast registered 4.9 on the Richter scale, larger than a reading of 4.52 from a similar explosion in 2009.

There are several ways of interpreting the larger yield of the most recent blast.

It could have been a bigger bomb, ergo the larger explosion. This seems unlikely given Pyongyang’s need for a miniaturised weapon to demonstrate its deterrent capability.

It may have been North Korea’s first test of a uranium-based weapon using fissile material from Pyongyang’s advanced High Enriched Uranium (HEU) program. Uranium-based nuclear devices are more technologically sophisticated than plutonium bombs, but the uranium feedstock does not have to pass through the numerous processes of the nuclear fuel cycle to be weaponised. HEU installations are more efficient in producing fissile material and harder to detect because they bypass the reactor burn process, hence their appeal.

Or the test may have been of a smaller device packing a stronger punch. Miniaturisation is the next technological milestone for the North’s nuclear scientists in order to produce a nuclear warhead that is deliverable atop a missile. To confirm itself as a nuclear weapons power, North Korea must demonstrate it has developed a deployable nuclear device. A nuclear bomb has no deterrence value unless it can be reliably and accurately delivered to an enemy target.

International reaction

After every North Korean provocation, journalists and colleagues usually ask me how the international community is likely to react.

The international reaction is the most predictable variable in the equation. The answer is: more sanctions.

Why sanctions? Military force is essentially off the table. A casual glance at a map of the Korean peninsula will show that Seoul is essentially indefensible against North Korean rockets and artillery due to its close proximity to the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ).

The estimated cost of war and reunification should an American military action escalate to full-scale war is estimated in the trillions of dollars and millions of lives, borne largely by South Korea. For any rational military strategist, the risks of an armed response to North Korea’s pin-prick provocations are prohibitive.

China fears the potential for economic and social dislocation in its northeastern provinces cause by large refugee flows from North Korea in the event of war or state collapse.

The pre-existing sanctions regime imposed by previous Security Council resolutions and domestic legal instruments includes measures such as restrictions on North Korean exports, asset freezes applied to specific North Korean citizens and enterprises, and controls on North Korean imports of dual-use technologies. The sanctions regime is enforced via the Proliferation Security Initiative, a global naval interdiction effort aimed at disrupting WMD trafficking.

Despite its stern rhetoric, the expansion of sanctions in UNSC 2087 was relatively mild. It placed travel bans and asset freezes on four officials and six state-owned enterprises from the North Korean space program and Pyongyang’s amorphous network of foreign exchange banks and dummy companies. This network exists to subvert international sanctions and fund North Korea’s nuclear and missile proliferation activities.

The sanctions regime has been largely ineffective in controlling North Korea’s nuclear and missile proliferation activities. There is a limit to the number of individuals and state-owned entities in North Korea that can be targeted for sanctions. One would therefore expect a new round of sanctions to include a crackdown on foreign entities thought to be assisting North Korean sanction-busting.

A stronger sanctions regime also requires cooperation from Beijing, as China is the country with the greatest economic leverage over the DPRK. Chinese foreign policy elites have been engaged in intense debate over the appropriate approach to North Korea for some time, however it is likely that the official policy of restrained disapproval will continue to carry the day.

Determined proliferation

The inability to prevent North Korea testing a nuclear device is evidence of its weak leverage over Pyongyang. Indeed it is the international community’s weak hand that creates the strategic space for relatively scot-free North Korean provocations.

North Korea is a determined nuclear weapons and ballistic missile proliferator, driven by a number of economic, strategic, political and bureaucratic motivations all linked to the regime’s over-arching goal of survival.

The successful test sends a powerful strategic signal that North Korea is serious about expanding its nuclear arsenal.

A South Korean official said that North Korea had notified the US and China of its nuclear test plan a day earlier.

Source: The Conversation - An independent analysis and commentary from academics and researchers.

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Bloggers doing their bit to champion a good cause

BLOGGER Dr Angelo Nino M. Santos brought his eight-year-old son to visit three children’s homes so that the little boy would appreciate what he had in his life.



“My son Antonio Gabriel was so excited to come.

“He packed his old toys and clothes to be donated to the children here,” he said while at Ramakrishna Orphanage in Scotland Road, Penang.

The visit was in conjunction with the ‘Responsible Blogging 2013: Time To Give Back’ programme.

A total of 40 bloggers visited Rama-krishna Orphanage, Children’s Pro- tection Society and Shan Children’s Home to give away food and other items.

The programme was organised by Crowdpot Sdn Bhd, a social media marketing company.

Crowdpot director Leslie Loh said they planned to help educate bloggers about safe blogging and to achieve one million ‘responsible actions’.

“For example, if each blogger who posted about this event in his or her blog receives about 100 comments, we consider that we have generated responsible action,” he explained.

Dr Angelo, 36, a lecturer at the Allianze University College of Medical Sciences, said it was the first time he was taking part in such a programme.

He said he started blogging in 2007 and his blog mainly focuses on the 3Fs — family, food and fun.

Also present was Penang Health, Welfare, Caring Society and Environ­ment Committee chairman Phee Boon Poh.

Loh said Crowdpot was also giving away prizes for those who helped to blog about the homes.

“The prizes include three iPad Minis sponsored by Crowdpot and six Ninetology Black Pearl 2 dual-core Android smartphones sponsored by Ninetology Malaysia,” he said.

The contest is until March 23.

For details, visit www.responsibleblogging.my. - The Star

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Snake, the most misunderstood of animals

There is the good as well as the bad aspects of the snake, more good in fact than evil

One of the most misunderstood, detested and ill-treated among animals is the snake!

Biblically, it was the “serpent”, whose intelligence may have exceeded man then, that persuaded Adam and Eve to take the forbidden fruit. Whether one believes in it literally or figuratively, the so-called downfall and condemnation of this species of animal began from that moment.

Once a beautiful creature, perhaps among the most beautiful, it was relegated to the ground, without feet, condemned to slithering and crawling on its whole physical frame, and indeed to this day, it can with great speed too.

Even to this day, some species of cobra and snakes display such majestic splendour and grace when upright and in its alert state.

Though a few species are poisonous, most bites are not lethal, even from so-called poisonous snakes, and most snakes do not bite unless stepped on or confronted.

Ironically, millions of people have died from the single bite of a mosquito from deadly malaria, dengue, and other mosquito borne disease, compared to those from snake bites.

Man’s two best friends, the dog and the horse, have caused far more deaths from their bites than the snake.

From the snake, medical science has learned a lot about blood-clotting and nerve paralysis, two of the common mechanisms of action of snake venom.

Apart from its purported medicinal value for the traditional practitioner, western medicine has also benefited from snake venom to produce antitoxins and other blood-clotting related medicines including the wonder clot-buster TPA.

Symbolically, snakes depict wisdom, strength and authority.

In the Old Testament, the stick of Moses became a snake, which outbattled the snakes of the magicians of Egypt.

It was the Almighty who sent snakes to punish the Israelites, and it was the intervention or intercession of Moses that saved them from attack and extinction by snake-bite.

A golden snake set on a pole was used and raised, so that any Israelite bitten by a snake could gaze at it, and be healed.

So, there is the good as well as the bad aspects of the snake, more good in fact than evil.

May this Lunar Year of the Snake be a partic`ULAR’ly spectac`ULAR’ year ahead!

By Dr KH SNG, The Star/Asia News Network

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Vowing to be different with the nuptials

How are Malaysia ever to match South Korean Psy's Gangnam Style?

MP SPEAKS On the occasion of South Korean pop superstar Psy's Gangnam Style performance at the Prime Minister's CNY Open House in Penang today, will Najib Abdul Razak make a statement whether Malaysia can ever catch up with South Korea or at least begin to close the yawning chasm between the two countries?

A cabinet minister said Psy's appearance will make Penang world-famous but it is more important that Penang and Malaysia become world-famous because of our own achievements in all fields of human endeavour.

Sixteen years ago, when we proclaimed the Multimedia Super Corridor as "a gift to the world", Malaysia and South Korea were on the same level embarking on the IT journey.

Today, MSC and Malaysia have faded away from the world radar screen as an international IT hot spot, while South Korea has powered ahead to become the first country in the world to become a broadband society as well as the land of fastest internet in the world - with an average internet speed in 2012 of 14.7 Mpbs, 650 percent higher than the average 2.2 Mpbs registered in Malaysia.

Among the worst 

In fact, Malaysia is ranked among the world's worst nations in internet speed - even slower than Thailand's average internet speed of 2.9 Mpbs for 2012.

In good governance, Malaysia trails behind South Korea especially in the Transparency International Corruption Perception Index in the past five years, where Malaysia is perceived as more corrupt, ranging No. 47 to 60 in world ranking in contrast to South Korea's ranking from 39 to 45.

In the latest 2002 World Press Freedom Index compiled by Reporters Sans Frontieres (Reporters Without Borders), Malaysia hit a historic low in ranking at No 145 while South Korea is ranked No 50.

Recently, the 2011 Trends in Mathematics and Science Survey (TIMSS) highlights that Malaysia is the country which suffered the biggest drop in scores among all participating countries for both mathematics and science, while confirming the continuing domination by a group of Asian education systems - South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong - in these two critical subjects.

Malaysia woefully lags behind South Korea in educational excellence. In the Times Higher Education World University Rankings 2012-2013, four South Korean universities are listed among the World Top 200 universities while six in the World Top 400 universities - but not a single one from Malaysia.

Has Najib any answer to the question why Malaysia is lagging so far behind South Korea in all fields of human endeavour, when 56 years ago when Malaysia achieved Merdeka, South Korea was poorer and more backward but is now two or three times richer than Malaysia?

By Lim Kit Siang

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Vowing to be different with the nuptials

Younger generation seeks to enjoy a modern style of marriage ceremony

A groom helping his bride to finish her makeup before their wedding ceremony in Zhengzhou, the capital of Central China's Henan province.[Photo/China Daily]

BEIJING: Wang Xiaoqiang, a 26-year-old white collar worker in Shanghai, doesn’t really care that the Year of the Snake 2013 is not regarded as a propitious year for weddings.

“I was told Lunar 2013 is not a good year to get married but that is something believed by elderly people,” said Wang.

According to the Chinese Lunar Calendar, there will be no li chun (the beginning of spring, one of 21 four-solar terms) during Lunar 2013. Some Chinese media have quoted Chinese experts as saying that it is “feudal superstition” to say Lunar 2013 will be “a widow year”, which means women who get married this year will suffer bad luck.

The reality is the young generation do not take the traditional belief seriously. Experts say there will be no significant effect on wedding-related commerce in 2013.

Wang is busy with matters such as booking pre-wedding photos and a video and looking for a place to hold his wedding banquet for his nuptials in October.

“Many people rushed to tie the knot on Jan 4, 2013, because they believe they will love each other forever if they get married on that day. But news reports said four couples who got married on that day have already divorced. How do you explain that? That day is not in the Year of the Snake,” Wang said with a big smile.

The pronunciation of 1314 (Jan 4, 2013) is similar to yi sheng yi shi (love you for a lifetime), making it one of the most romantic days on which to wed. There were 7,300 weddings in Shanghai that day.

Wang’s view is shared by He Lina, secretary-general of the Shanghai Wedding Celebration Association.

“Many people have asked my opinion about the so-called “widow year” and the possible effects on the wedding industry. What I want to say is it is superstition without any scientific support and there will be no significant impact on the wedding industry,” she said.

Looking around China, it seems the wedding-related business is not being affected by the “widow year”. Chinese media have already reported that in Shenyang, the capital of Northeast China’s Liaoning province, and Hefei, capital of East China’s Anhui province, wedding banquets to be held during this year’s May Day Holiday and the National Day Holiday in October are almost fully booked.

She admitted that there will be fewer people getting married in 2013. However, she said it was not caused by the “widow year”. According to He, there will be 100,000 people holding wedding ceremonies in Shanghai in 2013, compared with 120,000 in 2012.

“Many people born during the baby boom of the 1980s have already got married so there will be fewer people getting married in 2013,” she added.

He said the Shanghai Wedding Celebration Association forecast there would be lower demand in the wedding-related markets. Businesses in the wedding industry have been advised to up their game by improving service quality and presenting more cultural elements in the planning process.

Compared with the older generation who like to check the almanac to see which year or which day is suitable for a wedding, the young generation are more concerned with how to make the ceremony more memorable.

“We want to do something different and try to make it more impressive,” said Wang.

Having attended several wedding ceremonies over the years, Wang said wedding ceremonies are becoming predictable and too similar.

“You can figure out what will be presented even before the wedding banquet takes place,” said Wang. “The processes and content are so similar”.

To ensure guests do not get bored, Wang said he plans to play a short film before his wedding ceremony to introduce him and his bride. It will last three to five minutes.

“We will tell guests who we are and how we got to know each other. We will also want to share the happiness we have enjoyed during our love affair,” said Wang. “We believe every couple has a different story to tell, which can make the process lots of fun”.

Short films have become one of the most popular wedding services demanded by young couples in recent years. To ensure the best outcome, some couples will invite short film producers to shoot films overseas, paying all the bills themselves. The cost can be as high as tens of thousands of yuan.

“Many people watch idol dramas from Taiwan or South Korea so they have some ideas they want to present at their wedding ceremony. We help them to make their dreams come true,” said Ba Si, chief wedding planner with Summer-Vision Wedding Planning Studio in Shanghai.

Summer-Vision has generated high ratings for its services and product quality on www.dianping.com, a website for people to review and comment on the service quality they have received in China.

“Normally, young couples will provide outlines and ideas and we will help them to make it into a full story with certain scenes,” said Ba Si. “We believe the film will present the life of the young couple in a true and alive manner.”

The average price for an ordinary short film ranges from 6,000 yuan (RM3,000) to 8,000 yuan (RM4,000). The more requests, the higher the price is charged. The length of shooting time also affects the price. Ba Si says his company receives about eight orders a month for short films.

The demand from young people for personalised products is not limited to bringing new concepts and services to their wedding ceremony. Changes can also be seen in traditional products, for instance, wedding candy and its packaging.

In the 1990s, White Rabbit-branded candy produced in Shanghai was popular as a gift for wedding guests in China. In the earlier 2000s, imported Dove and Ferrero chocolate gained in popularity.

These days, industry experts say people still like Ferrero and Dove but are also looking for something unique.

"Other imported candy such as Italian-made Baci chocolate have been well received by the Chinese in recent years because young people want their guests to try something with a different taste," said Wu Chaohui, the founder of Zhenpinxuan in Shanghai. Zhenpinxuan is a retailing company specializing in wedding candy and liquor.

To make sure wedding candy can catch guests' attention straightaway, Wu formed an innovation team to design its packaging. The five-member team travels overseas every year to see what is new in the market and bring new ideas to the Chinese market.

"The cost of wedding candy packaging is a little high but the design is unique and you cannot find it elsewhere in the market," said a buyer surnamed Yang, who declined to reveal his full name. Yang ordered 500 packages in the shape of fish in 2012. "The feedback I received from guests was that it was unique," he said.

The increasing demand for personalized products might also help boost demand on e-commerce platforms. Many customers in smaller cities outside Beijing and Shanghai might visit online platforms to find new designs.

"The online platform can offer a much wider range of choice for us at better prices," said Li Dong, a resident of Ma'anshan in Anhui province.

Xie Yu and He Wei contributed to this story.tangzhihao@chinadaily.com.cn

By TANG ZHIHAO CHINAdaily.com.cn/ Asia News Network

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