The worst sleeping position is sleeping on your back, experts say

 

Experts say side sleeping is probably the better way to sleep. — Dreamstime/TNS

Most people spend a third of their lives either asleep or resting, according to the Sleep Foundation.

During sleep, the body recharges and repairs itself.

And a good night’s sleep often can be determined by what position you are lying in bed.

Back-sleepers beware.

“I know many people find it to be comfortable, because they’re not putting weight on their joints,” says Dr Lois Krahn, a Mayo Clinic sleep specialist.

But experts say sleeping on your back is actually the worst sleeping position, especially if you have sleep apnea.

“Sleeping on the back means that your tongue and jaw can fall down and crowd your airway. And many people snore more on their back,” says Dr Krahn.

Sleeping on your stomach helps keep the airway open, but it can put a strain on your spine and neck.“There’s a host of evidence overall suggesting that probably sleeping on the side is better,” says Dr. Virend Somers, a cardiologist and director of the sleep facility within Mayo Clinic’s Center for Clinical and Translational Science.

Side sleeping helps prevent the airway from collapsing and can reduce snoring.

“And so, all in all, sleeping on the side – perhaps with their head slightly elevated as long as that’s comfortable – is a good way to sleep,” says Dr Krahn.

Side sleeping is also recommended during pregnancy, especially the last trimester.

And sleeping on the left side is best because it keeps pressure off internal organs and promotes healthy blood flow.

“When you are in that third trimester of pregnancy and when you sleep on your back, the uterus is compressing your inferior vena cava (the largest vein in the body).

“It’s compressing the arterial system,” says Dr Somers.

Sleeping on your side also is considered by the Sleep Foundation as the best for people with neck and back pain, especially if you place a small pillow between your knees.

“Because if you don’t have a pillow between your knees, that stress of sleeping on the side pulls on your hip and can cause some issues,” says Dr Somers. – Mayo Clinic News Network/Tribune News Service

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Sleeping soundly

MANY Malaysians suffer from one or more sleeping problems in their lifetimes. Blame it on stress which keeps your mind active, but many other factors may disrupt your slumber. These include an irregular sleep schedule, poor sleeping habits, illnesses and pain, certain medications and sleep disorders.

Are you getting enough sleep?

A good night’s sleep is not a luxury. It is a necessity as it allows your body and mind to recharge and recover from exertion. The average adult needs between seven to nine hours of sleep a day.

There are many reasons you should call it an early night. These include boosting your concentration, improving athletic performance, promoting skin health, enhancing your mood, relieving stress, regulating blood pressure, strengthening immunity and maintaining a healthy weight.

A few hours of sleep loss each night puts a major damper on your quality of life beyond daytime drowsiness. Regularly skimping on sleep can have cumulative impacts, which can be far more severe than you thought. It can interfere with your cognitive abilities and eventually cause reduced concentration, impaired memory and anxiety. Being sleep-deprived will put you at an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases, obesity and diabetes.

How to sleep better?

Synthetic sleeping pills may seem like a quick band-aid. They can help you fall asleep but can cause several side effects including prolonged drowsiness the next day, nausea and dry mouth. Other risks include drug dependence, withdrawal symptoms and rebound insomnia.

For a sustainable solution, consider trying herbal remedies to calm your racing thoughts and ease into restful sleep. Unlike synthetic pills, these herbs are nonhabit forming and do not cause any unpleasant side effects.

Sedating herbs like Chinese dates, passion flowers, hop and valerian root have been used since ancient times to promote tranquillity and improve sleep. These herbs work by increasing the levels and activity of gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), a chemical messenger which reduces the activity of the neurons in the brain and central nervous system, helping your body and mind to relax and sleep. Together, they may help you fall asleep faster, reduce night-time awakenings and sleep for longer.

Getting adequate sleep is essential for your health and well-being. Nonetheless, the quality of your sleep is just as important. Sleep better and start each day afresh and energised.

This informational article is brought to you by Vitahealth. PressReader.com | Sleep­ing soundly

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Stand up for yourself

Proper body alignment can help prevent excess strain on your joints, muscles and spine.

Proper posture and body alignment support good health and developing habits to promote them should start early.

 ALTHOUGH it may seem annoying to teenagers that they are often nagged about the need to “stand up straight” and “put your shoulders back”, such advice need to be heeded because good posture supports good health.

And starting good habits early, though it requires conscious effort, can help them throughout their life.

Proper body alignment can help prevent excess strain on joints, muscles and spine – alleviating pain and reducing the likelihood of injury. As a bonus, correct posture can boost productivity and mood, as well as help use muscles more efficiently. And starting good habits now can last a lifetime when they are needed most.

Do the test

To know what does proper posture look like, use the “wall test”:

• Stand so that the back of your head, your shoulder blades and your buttocks touch the wall, and your heels are one to 10cm from the wall.

• Put a flat hand behind the small of your back. You should be able to just barely slide your hand between your lower back and the wall for a correct lower back curve.

• If there’s too much space behind your lower back, draw your belly button toward your spine. This flattens the curve in your back and gently brings your lower back closer to the wall.

• If there’s too little space behind your lower back, arch your back just enough so that your hand can slide behind you.

• Walk away from the wall while holding a proper posture. Then return to the wall to check whether you kept a correct posture.

Unfortunately, ideal posture often is the exception rather than the rule. But poor posture can affect you from head to toe, contributing to several problems no matter your age.

The domino effect

These are among the most common problems resulting from poor posture:

Headache: Poor posture can strain the muscles at the back of your head, neck, upper back and jaw. This can put pressure on nearby nerves and trigger what are known as tension-type or muscle-spasm headaches.

Back and neck pain: Pain and tightness or stiffness in the back and neck can be due to injury and other conditions, such as arthritis, herniated disks and osteoporosis, but poor posture is a common contributor. Though rarely life-threatening, back and neck pain can be chronic and reduce your quality of life.

Knee, hip and foot pain: Muscle weakness; tightness or imbalances; lack of flexibility; and poor alignment of your hips, knees and feet may prevent your kneecap, or patella, from sliding smoothly over your femur. The ensuing friction can cause irritation and pain in the front of the knee, a condition known as patellofemoral pain. Poor foot and ankle alignment also can contribute to plantar fasciitis, a condition in which the thick band of tissue connecting your heel to the ball of your foot becomes inflamed and causes heel pain.

Shoulder pain and impingement: Your rotator cuff is a group of muscles and tendons that connect your upper arm to your shoulder. Muscle tightness, weakness or imbalances associated with poor posture can cause the tendons in your rotator cuff to become irritated and cause pain and weakness. A forward, hunched posture also can cause these tendons to become pinched, or impinged. Eventually, this can lead to a tear in the rotator cuff tissue, a more serious injury that can cause significant pain and weakness, and limit your ability to carry out daily activities.

Jaw pain: A forward head posture may strain the muscles under your chin and cause your temporomandibular, or TMJ, joint to become overworked. This may result in pain, fatigue and popping in your jaw, as well as difficulty opening your mouth, headaches and neck pain.

Fatigue and breathing problems: Poor postural habits may restrict your rib cage and compress your diaphragm. This can reduce lung capacity, leading to shallow or labored breathing, fatigue and lack of energy, which can affect your overall productivity.

Improve your posture

Here are three ways to improve your posture while standing, sitting and lying in bed:

1. While walking, stand tall. Inhale, roll your shoulders up and back, then exhale and roll your shoulders down, as if you are gently tucking your shoulder blades into your back pockets.

2. Try seated pelvic tilts. Sit on the edge of a chair, place your hands on your thighs and rest your feet on the floor. Inhale and rock your pelvis and ribs forward while you open your chest and look upward. Exhale, rock your pelvis and spine back and look down toward the floor.

3. Do a wake-up or bedtime bridge pose. Lie on your back in bed with your knees bent and your feet resting on the mattress. Inhale, then slowly exhale and curl your tailbone to lift your buttocks and spine, one vertebra at a time, until your shoulder blades bear your weight. Pause and inhale, then slowly exhale as you roll your spine back down.

Improving posture can help prevent or reverse many conditions and teenagers will be amazed to see how their quality of life can improve – simply by standing a little taller.- 

Risks: Sitting for pro-longed periods without a short break can slow blood flow to brain

Risks: Sitting for pro-longed periods without a short break can slow blood flow to brain We regularly spend hours sitting before a computer screen - then, typically, even more time slumped upon the sofa.

But, while that may feel comfortable during the working week, it seems sitting for long, uninterrupted periods may actually be bad for our health.

That's according to new research, which says it slows vital blood flow to the brain - posing potential consequences for our long-term well-being.

Sitting down for long periods increases the risk of Alzheimer's as scientists reveal what to do every 30 minutes to keep your brain healthy

Specifically, decreased flow can affect cognitive function and risks a greater likelihood of neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimers.

Fortunately, walking for just 2 minutes every half an hour can off- set this, restoring healthy circulation.

Researchers at Liverpool John Moores University analysed the seating habits of 15 office co- workers over three separate sessions.

During each, they wore ultrasound probes which tracked blood flow through their middle cerebral arteries, which serves the brain directly.

In the first session they sat continuously for four hours, with the exception of brief bathroom breaks. In the second, they performed two minutes of brisk walking on nearby treadmills at 30- minute intervals.

Then, in the third session, they walked for eight minutes every two hours.

Blood flow reduced during the first and last sessions - when activity was minimal or every two hours - but rose considerably when subjects were active regularly.

Sophie Carter, a doctoral student who led the study, said the findings re- assert the need for short - but regular - walking breaks. ' Only the frequent two- minute walking breaks had an overall effect of preventing a decline in brain blood flow,' she says.

They published their findings in the Journal of Applied Physiology, earlier this sum-

Recession unlikely for global economy but challenges linger on

 

THE global macroeconomic picture is still more sluggish than investors would have liked, particularly when viewed from the gross domestic product (GDP) growth perspective for the first half of 2023 (1H23), although it remains a stretch to say the world is heading for a recession.

A quick glance across the Causeway to Singapore sees the city-state registering a 0.5% yearon-year (y-o-y) growth rate for the second quarter of the year (2Q23), extending marginally from the 0.4% expansion it charted for the preceding quarter.

Elsewhere, such as in major markets like the United States, China and the eurozone, economists are of the opinion that growth has been sturdy during 1H23 but stiff hurdles still remain on the horizon.

While acknowledging that global GDP growth has been slower so far in 2023 due to several familiar factors such as higher interest rates and elevated cost pressures, newly appointed Bank Negara governor Datuk Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour is also not expecting the global economy to slip into recession.

He says resilient domestic demand in advanced economies is providing sufficient support, while also anticipating worldwide trade to improve towards the end of 2023.

Most notably, he perceives China’s slower-than-expected recovery to have limited impact on Malaysia’s own economic expansion and improvement.

“Malaysia’s economy is well diversified in terms of products, services and trade partners, which would cushion the Chinese impact,” says Abdul Rasheed.

According to Bernard Aw, chief economist at Singapore’s Coface Services South Asia-pacific Pte Ltd, although the global economy has been resilient year-to-date, growth outlook in the second half remains challenging, not the least from increasing signals of weakening Chinese economic activity.

Forecasting global GDP expansion to be at 2.2% y-o-y for 2023, and anticipating a similar growth rate of 2.3% growth for next year, he says: “We expect Asean GDP growth (2023: 4.3%; 2024: 4.6%) to be generally faster than advanced economies – at 4.3% and 4.6% for 2023 and 2024 respectively – as tourism recovery and domestic demand drives economic activity.”

Continuing subdued external demand for the region would imply that domestic demand has to continue to partially offset some of the slack, Aw, tells Starbizweek.

“However, the challenging economic environment worldwide, relatively high inflation and interest rates means that even growth in domestic consumption and investment may fall short of expectations,” Aw opines.

Commenting on the overall global interest rate environment, he believes that the trend of disinflation would continue into 2H23, mainly driven by lower energy prices, coupled with China’s deflation having fed into lower export prices, which has also moderated global price pressures.

On the flipside, Aw thinks underlying inflation will remain fairly sticky, despite not being severe enough necessarily for central banks to revert to hiking rates.

“Having said that, they will likely maintain the current restrictive interest rates for a longer-than-expected period,” he says.

Earlier in July, it was reported that the United States economy had grown 2.4% y-o-y in 2Q23, up from the 2% it posted for the first three months of the year and bringing 1H23 GDP to a commendable 2.2%.

“The improved expansion rate had been driven by consumer spending, on top of increases in non-residential fixed investment, government spending and inventory growth.

At the same time, China had registered a 6.3% 2Q23 y-o-y GDP growth rate, which was also an improvement from the 4.5% charted in the previous quarter.

The acceleration however was slower than the expected 7.3% forecast by economists on a Reuters poll, dragged back by tepid demand and sinking property prices which has sapped consumer confidence.

On the same note, chief executive of Centre for Market Education Carmelo Ferlito feels that China’s post “zero-covid” recovery has been fragile since the beginning.

“The economy is not an engine to be switched on and off, but rather it is a living emergent order.

“As such, China is paying the price to a degree with its severe, nation-wide lockdowns while it was implementing the zero-covid policy,” he says.

The decelerating growth in China, says Ferlito, is evidenced by the People’s Bank of China unexpectedly cutting a range of key interest rates on Tuesday, which is seen as an emergency move to reignite growth after new data showed the economy has decelerated further last month.

With Chinese officials from its National Bureau of Statistics also suspending reports on youth unemployment, he says the move would deprive investors, economists and businesses of another key data point on the declining health of the world’s second-largest economy.

Divulging more numbers, Ferlito says the twin moves of cutting rates and holding back unemployment data from the Chinese government has coincided with new data showing a slowdown in spending growth by consumers and businesses.

“Concurrently, factory output grew much less than expected, adding to a recent raft of worrying signals. For the first time since February, China’s headline measure of unemployment rose, climbing to 5.3%.

“The jobless rate for people ages 16 to 24, meanwhile, had marched steadily higher for six consecutive months to hit a series of record highs, culminating in a reading of 21.3% in June,” he says.

Ferlito says an economic trichotomy is emerging on the global scene, before adding: “The United States is still fighting inflation, but countries like Germany and Holland are starting to experience technical recession, while China is facing challenges of its own.

“It is that post-lockdown crisis that the CME predicted two years ago.”

Echoing Bank Negara governor Abdul Rasheed, he re-emphasises that it is important to look beyond GDP figures, making his case that if the GDP of a country declines because of a cut in impractical government spending, that would be positive for a country.

Conversely, he argues if GDP growth were to accelerate due to an increase in spending financed by debt, it ultimately would be a bane to the government’s coffers and the national economy.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is predicting a 3% GDP global growth rate for this year and the next, receding from the 3.5% achieved in 2022.

It says the rise in central bank policy rates to stave off inflation has continued to weigh on economic activity, but the good news is that global headline inflation is expected to fall from 8.7% last year to 6.8% in 2023 and 5.2% in 2024.

“The recent resolution of the US debt ceiling stand-off and strong action by authorities to contain turbulence in the US and Swiss banking earlier this year reduced the immediate risks of financial sector turmoil. This moderated adverse risks to the outlook,” the IMF says.

However, it cautions that the balance of risks to global growth remains tilted to the downside, as inflation could remain high and even rise if further shocks occur, including those from an escalation of the Russia-ukraine conflict.

Moreover, the IMF warns that China’s recovery could slow further, partly due to unresolved real estate problems, with negative cross-border spillovers.

On the upside, inflation could fall faster than expected, reducing the need for tight monetary policy, and domestic demand could again prove more resilient

• By keith Hiew keith.hsk@thestar.com.my
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GIVE SENIORS FREE ANNUAL FLU SHOTS

Flu & People 65 Years and Older | CDC

Here's How to Plan For Your Seasonal Vaccinations This Fall

PETALING JAYA: Eighteen medical societies and 11 non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have launched a petition urging the government to provide free annual influenza vaccination for senior citizens, especially those in the B40 group.

In a joint statement, the Malaysian Influenza Working Group (MIWG) and the Malaysian Society of Geriatric Medicine said the move came in light of the recent increase in influenza cases in the country, which according to the Association of Private Hospitals Malaysia on July 29, had threatened to overwhelm even private hospitals as there were substantial admissions on account of the flu.

“The recent surge in influenza cases has put tremendous strain on hospital resources, highlighting the pressing need for an urgent long-term solution,” said MIWG, an interest group under the Malaysian Society of Infectious Diseases and Chemotherapy.

“We are glad the Health Minister has just announced the Health Ministry is looking into possibly providing influenza vaccination for high-risk groups. It is a timely reminder that we must be constantly vigilant against this real and ever-present threat in Malaysia,” the statement read.

This surge in influenza in Malaysia was also reflected by FluNet (WHO’s global web-based tool for influenza virological surveillance), which reported that, up until the end of July, 20% of the samples tested in Malaysia were positive for influenza, the majority being serotype A.

This is in line with the data of a private hospital in June, where 126 out of 537 (23%) samples were positive for influenza (98% were serotype A), MIWG said, adding that this petition is supported by 18 medical societies and 11 NGOs, which are collectively known as the Malaysian Alliance for the Prevention of Influenza.

The current outbreak in Malaysia is concerning because of the risk of severe disease, complications and even death in high-risk groups, especially older persons with pre-existing non-communicable diseases such as diabetes, heart disease, stroke, chronic kidney disease and chronic lung disease.

“Investing in the influenza vaccine is a smart choice as it not only prevents severe disease but also prevents the financial burden of expensive hospital bills and potential loss of income from missing work.

“More than 95% of our older persons are not vaccinated against influenza,” said MIWG, cautioning that hospitalisation for influenza also presents its risks.

“It is important to highlight that hospitalisation alone is associated with poor outcomes in older persons due to complications such as hospital-acquired pneumonia, delirium, falls, pressure injuries and functional decline.

“These common and distressing complications share risk factors and can co-exist, resulting in longer admissions, possible readmissions and higher mortality.

“The risk of developing other life-threatening complications such as myocarditis, encephalitis, and multi-organ failure is also higher in this high-risk group,” it said.

Whether hospitalisation is readily available or not, influenza increases the risk of heart attack more than 10 times within the first week of infection, and according to the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, up to 70% of hospitalisations and 90% of deaths occur among older persons.

“To date, 40 countries have implemented free influenza vaccination for older persons,” said MIWG.

On Aug 6, Health Minister Dr Zaliha Mustafa said the ministry would study the need to provide influenza vaccination to the public, with the vaccine currently given free only to the ministry’s front line workers, while others have to obtain it from private clinics or hospitals at prices that range from RM70 and upwards per dose.

“That is why we call upon the public and the government to support this cause so that we can provide our older persons the protection they deserve as this vulnerable segment of the population is at greater risk of developing pneumonia as a complication of influenza, which subsequently leads to prolonged hospitalisation,” said MIWG.

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Emerging economies having bigger say in global affairs inevitable; G7 resurrection notion stupid: father of BRICS

 New cooperation path

Jim O'Neill, a renowned British economist Photo: Xie Wenting/GT

Editor's Note:

The 15th BRICS Summit will be held in Johannesburg, South Africa, from August 22 to 24, 2023. At this year's meeting, the feasibility of a common BRICS currency, the internationalization of the Chinese Yuan, the growth prospects of emerging economies such as China, and the role of the BRICS in global governance will be the focal points of discussion.

With these questions in mind, Global Times reporters Xie Wenting and Bai Yunyi (GT) recently interviewed Jim O'Neill (O'Neill), a renowned British economist and former commercial secretary to the UK Treasury, who is also known as the "father of BRICS." In 2001, O'Neill first proposed the concept of "BRICS" and predicted that the share of BRICS countries in the global economy would rise significantly, hence earning him his title. In the interview, the British economist told the Global Times that the idea of expecting the G7 to play a greater role in global governance is stupid. Despite facing geopolitical challenges, emerging economies will inevitably have a greater say in global affairs.

GT: You are widely viewed as the "father of BRICS" in China. As the 15th BRICS Summit is set to take place in South Africa, what are your expectations for the upcoming summit? How do you assess the future development of the BRICS?

O'Neill: There has been a lot of discussion about this BRICS Summit for several months. So they have allowed expectations to rise about, in particular, one thing, which is an expansion of the BRICS group into being BRICS plus.

The main issue will be how many countries will actually become members of the BRICS plus. But now it is not clear to me regarding the expansion and what are the [membership] criteria. At the summit, these questions may be addressed.

Sometimes people have said to me: Why did you create this acronym, because they [member countries] don't have anything in common. That's not true. They all have a huge number of people and a lot of challenges with infectious diseases. I think the BRICS countries should enhance cooperation in areas such as public health and climate change.

I am optimistic about the development of the BRICS because of its potential. Over the course of the nearly 40 years that I have been observing China, it usually ends up doing the right thing. Additionally, due to India's remarkable demographics, these two countries emerge as the most crucial components within the BRICS framework.

Ultimately, China's massive economic size looms prominently, being twice as large as the combined total of the others. Thus, the real determinant of aggregate growth performance resides in the trajectories of China and India.

Among the BRICS nations, Brazil, Russia, and South Africa face daunting challenges such as over-reliance on commodities. They must embark on reform initiatives.

GT: De-dollarization is currently a hot topic. How do you view the prospects of a de-dollarization in the world? How do you view the prospect of using RMB in trade settlements between the BRICS countries?

O'Neill: I do think it is the case and this discussion has been had for over 20 years. The world is too dependent on the dollar. Every country in the world has to suffer the consequences of the economic cycle. The Federal Reserve Board is grappling with monetary policy matters, which align with the Fed's responsibilities, given that its mandates pertain to domestic US policy. However, this approach may not always align with the specific domestic requirements of many emerging economies, potentially subjecting them to a cycle that doesn't suit their individual needs.

Hence, the case for having a more balanced monetary system is really quite strong. The obvious contender from the BRICS group to play a bigger role is the RMB. I think the idea of the RMB becoming a more prominent invoicing currency for trade and gaining increased status as a reserve currency within the BRICS holds significant merit. However, the realization of this notion hinges upon the willingness of Chinese policymakers, including the People's Bank of China, to make it happen.

The discussion of the internationalization of the RMB has been around for 20 years, ever since the early days of the BRICS and since China played a crucial role in bringing around the end of the Asian financial crisis in 1998. In fact, I admire the slowness in which the Chinese authorities have allowed the rise of the RMB. You want to make sure that your domestic financial markets are sufficiently developed, especially the interest rate market before you allow your currency to be traded a lot more around the world. China has to allow for the growth of the RMB financial markets based on its own domestic needs.

GT: You once argued that the G7 is a zero. You said that since its creation, the G7 has become increasingly irrelevant in a world of new emerging powers. An institution that excludes the BRICS while still including economic basket cases like Italy cannot possibly claim the legitimacy required to exercise global economic leadership. But some observers have noted that the role of the G7 in global governance is reemerging, while the influence of the BRICS and G20 is decreasing. How do you view this perspective?

O'Neill: I think it's a bit crazy. It is indeed the case that since US President Joe Biden came to power, the US has sought to elevate the role of the G7 among the so-called advanced countries. Therefore, there is greater enthusiasm among certain G7 members regarding their capabilities. They're all democracies, and they're all reasonably developed so they find it easy to meet and talk. However, the G7 faces numerous dilemmas stemming from a central issue: Their diminishing share in the global economy.

Japan and Italy have had hardly any growth for 20 years. Germany also doesn't grow very well. And the UK has hardly grown at all since the financial crisis. In fact, the G7 now is a club increasingly dominated economically by the US. Certainly, when it comes to global issues - be it global economic challenges, climate change, infectious diseases, or any other truly global concern - it is impossible for the G7 to effectively address these matters.

I am very disappointed that the G7 has developed this idea that it has resurrected itself, because it is stupid. What we need to do is to renew efforts to make the G20, which was a fantastic creation of the financial crisis because it has the BRICS and all the G7 in it to be the center of global policy-making again.

An aerial view of Johannesburg, South Africa Photo: IC

GT: Given the current geopolitical challenges, do you maintain your optimism that future organizations like the G20 will incorporate a greater representation of emerging economies and play a more influential role in global governance?

O'Neill: I am more optimistic because I think it's inevitable. If you look at the history of the world over the long term, usually the most important countries are the ones that have the biggest say about global affairs. I am from the UK, and in the century prior to the last 100 years, the UK held the most dominant influence in global affairs, a reflection of Britain's economic history. This shifted when the US grew significantly larger.

As more emerging economies become bigger and bigger, it seems inevitable that they will have a bigger say in global affairs, despite some of the geopolitical challenges that go with it.

GT: Do you believe that emerging economies have the potential to remain substantial drivers of the global economy, both now and in the future?

O'Neill: Yes is the answer. Currently, China holds the position of the world's second-largest economy in nominal terms and the largest in PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) terms. Over the next few years, India is poised to challenge Germany for the fourth-largest spot, having already surpassed France and the UK. The combined growth trajectories of China and India exert the most significant impact on global GDP.

Several other emerging economies, notably Indonesia and Vietnam, are also gaining prominence in Asia. In Latin America, Mexico, and in Africa, though from a significantly lower starting point, countries such as Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Egypt are steadily gaining importance in the global economy. However, among the five BRICS countries, three have not demonstrated strong economic performance for over a decade. I am skeptical that their fortunes will change unless they embark on substantial economic reforms aimed at diminishing their reliance on volatile commodity prices.

GT: What is your perspective on the role that China plays in the advancement of global economic growth?

O'Neill: As China is having grown so rapidly and substantially, the current situation underscores that what happens to China in the upcoming year holds significance for the global economy. Many countries worldwide are greatly influenced by China, from South Korea to developed Western countries like Germany.

I think the confidence of Chinese individuals is not as high as it was for the last three decades. Chinese policymakers need to listen, understand, and take action to specifically enhance the role of consumption. I read that there is discussion regarding additional policies which I hope could happen.

Chinese consumption, as a proportion of shared GDP, remains excessively low. But Chinese savings persist at levels that are disproportionately high. Chinese policymakers must identify the appropriate stimulus to instill greater confidence among the populace, thereby promoting increased spending.

GT: We seem to be entering an era of "tech decoupling" and "technological nationalism," with the US, for example, imposing restrictions on selling certain high-tech products to China. What impacts could this trend have on the global economy?

O'Neill: As an economist, I find it hard to take these populist measures very seriously. We all live on the same planet. The notion that the US and China could entirely decouple from one another is stupid. When considering balance of payments and countries' savings rates, if the US saves too little, it consequently needs to source capital from the international community. This situation inevitably leads to a trade deficit with the rest of the world, as dictated by the accounting identity of the balance of payments.

Consider the following theoretical scenario: If the US were to enact a prohibition on importing anything from China, for instance, the result would be the US importing those same items from other countries. Simultaneously, those other countries would import those goods from China.

In my opinion, the so-called decoupling is merely a populist political notion that lacks any logical basis.

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