Malaysia's GDP growth dips to 5.2% in Q3, beats economists' forecast

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter ended Sept 30 expanded 5.2% year-on-year, supported by domestic demand and investment activities.

The expansion in GDP beat economists' median expectations of 4.8%. GDP growth in the second quarter was revised upwards to 5.6% from 5.4%.

Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz said at a briefing to announce the GDP data that growth in the quarter was supported by domestic demand, especially in the favourable performance of private and public sector consumption and investment activities.

She noted that growth was affected by slower external demand resulting in further decline in net real exports of goods and services.

“The world economic environment remained challenging in the third quarter.

“Growth in the advanced economies was uneven, with the US economy experiencing an improvement while several other major advanced economies continued to experience weak growth, constrained by fiscal adjustments, sluggish labour markets and impaired financial intermediation,” Zeti said.

Moving forward, Zeti said GDP growth trend in the fourth quarter was “likely to continue very much like the third quarter” but added that there were some uncertainties seen in the export sector.

“The export sector reflects the (economic) developments in the global environment. It will continue to remain weak because of the economic developments taking place in the developed world. But domestic demand is expected to continue being strong.

“And as such, the outcome (of this) is that we will, of course, be affected by external developments as we are not insulated but the anchor to our growth is from domestic demand and we expect this to continue to be strong,” she said.

On Bank Negara's growth estimates for the entire 2012, Zeti said GDP growth for the full year “would be at least 5% or better.”

“This (assumption) is given that (GDP growth in) the first three quarters have been better than expected. In the first half of the year, the exports sector was better than expected despite the challenging external environment.

“But as we entered the third quarter, we see exports became negative and it remains uncertain as how the exports sector will perform in the fourth quarter,” she said.

Bank Negara said that during the third quarter, domestic demand expanded by 11.4% (versus 14% in the second quarter) while gross fixed capital formation registered a robust performance of 22.7% from 26.1% in the second quarter (Q2), underpinned by capital spending by both the private and public sectors.

“Private sector investment was driven by capital spending in the services sector, particularly the transportation, real estate and utilities sub-sectors and the ongoing implementation of projects in the oil and gas sector,” Zeti said.

“For public investment, the capital spending by public enterprises was mainly channelled into the transportation, oil and gas and utilities sectors while the Federal Government's development expenditure was mainly channelled into the transportation, education and public utilities sectors,” she added.

Bank Negara noted that growth across most economic sectors had moderated in the third quarter.

The services sector growing by 7% from 6.6% in the second quarter, manufacturing slowed slightly with a 3.3% growth from 5.6% in the second quarter due to a moderation in export and domestic-oriented industries and the construction sector grew by 18.3% from 22.2% in the second quarter, driven by the civil engineering sub-sector such as the mass rapid transit mega project and the construction of the second Penang bridge.

Bank Negara said the agriculture sector recorded growth of 0.5% from minus 4.7% in the second quarter due to a recovery in crude palm oil production, while the mining sector contracted 1.2% from a 2.3% growth in the second quarter because of declines in natural gas production due to planned shutdown in facilities.

Economists told StarBizWeek that the third-quarter economic growth was commendable and they were unanimous that growth will most likely exceed 5% for the whole of this year.

“Malaysia's GDP growth of 5.2%, which is marginally slower than 5.6% in the previous quarter, is a gravity-defying performance. This is testament to continued consumer spending and economic transformation programme projects that have offset some external headwinds,” RAM Holdings group chief economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng said.

“My estimate for GDP growth for the third quarter was 4.5% earlier. For the full year, it is likely to be at the higher end of the range of forecast, likely above 5%. Of course, external risks still remain, given the contraction in eurozone and fiscall cliff situation in the US economy.”

Alliance Research chief economist Manokaran Mottain said that going forward, he was confident GDP growth would still be healthy at around 5% in 2013.

“This is in line with the Government's continued spending to develop infrastructure and its recently announced bonus to civil servants and cash hand-outs to targeted groups.

“The economy (in the third quarter) is still driven by domestic demand, led by private consumption and investment activities, reflecting the Government's drive to stimulate income growth, improve and develop infrastructure as well as ensuring a steady flow of foreign capital,” Manokaran said.

By DANIEL KHOO danielkhoo@thestar.com.my

Asean, an arena of superpowers

A new report sees South-East Asia as the strategic venue of a possible great game' by two superpowers - again.

CHINA'S irrepressible rise amid US continued pre-eminence has been reverberating around the globe, spewing truckloads of issues for dissection and debate.

Among these issues is South-East Asia as a regional theatre for economic integration, diplomatic engagement or military entanglement. Despite declarations of the best intentions by all, the events that result may not always be desirable.

The New Geopolitics of Southeast Asia, released this month by the London School of Economics' (LSE) IDEAS, a centre for the study of international affairs, diplomacy and grand strategy, focuses on the region in this context. So what is one to make of China-US or US-China relations in this regional “theatre”?

Part of the first section, dramatically titled “The Clash,” and the Conclusion are by Malaysian banker Tan Sri Dr Munir Majid, a doctoral student at the LSE back in 1978. Dr Munir is also the only South-East Asian among the three contributors in this section.

He begins by sketching the regional scenario as it develops: China's rise, followed by US scurrying to make up for a perceived lack of attention to East Asia after its preoccupation with West and South Asia. Washington's “relative neglect” is now embodied in its “pivot” strategy of moving 60% of its naval force to East Asia by 2020.

Interestingly, 2020 is also the target year for this region first Malaysia, then Asean as a whole, and then China to achieve peak economic performance. And there lies the rub: while East Asian planners emphasise economic development, US planners stress military force.

The economic dimension remains paramount in East Asian thinking in times of plenty and adversity. As Dr Munir notes, during the devastating 1997-98 financial crisis China stopped its planned devaluation of the renminbi as a lifeline to stricken regional economies, while the US was “conspicuous by its inaction”.

However, he also finds that US moves have not entirely neglected economics, such as Hillary Clinton's regional roadshow towards the end of 2010. Nonetheless, these efforts are still seen as belated, few and far between.

The larger issue is whether the US can accommodate China's rise with wisdom, maturity and equanimity. Prickly talk in Washington about branding China a “currency manipulator”, or a tendency to resort to military manoeuvres, is not encouraging.

Dr Munir recounts US strengths and weaknesses, but includes among the former a “military force without equal”. But having to spend half the entire world's military expenditure each year is more a weakness than a strength, particularly when the US is also the world's biggest debtor nation.

The only “strength” there resides in the US military-industrial complex, since the military sector is unproductive and can conceivably “profit” only through war and conquest. Recent developments however suggest that such gains tend to be temporary or illusory.

Meanwhile, the political strategy behind the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which includes some countries but excludes others, the latter being the newest Asean countries and notably China, is likely to weaken Asean. Such divisiveness in a supposedly economic entity is illogical, counter-intuitive and ultimately counter-productive.

But that is consistent with US refusal to adopt a more internationalist outlook on the conflicting claims in the South China Sea. Dr Munir says the US should, instead of simply repeating outdated mantras, consider the deep seabed the common heritage of mankind and form US policy on this basis.

That approach would engage China positively and win support and confidence among other countries. But in his own recent experience in Washington, senior senators and policy researchers were predictably uncreative in their approaches.

On the recent South China Sea spats between China and the Philippines and then Vietnam, Dr Munir refers tellingly to Washington's ambiguity in extending protection to security allies in the region. Where treaties or some formal understanding exist, what can the declared US “neutrality” mean or be taken to mean?

This ambiguity applies also to the East China Sea, where Japan's security treaty with the US is often assumed to cover outbreaks of conflict over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands with China. Some US officials, like the US Congressional Research Service that informs policymakers, reject such disputed areas as distinctive national territory covered by categorical security guarantees.

Much of Dr Munir's contribution centres on issues arising from conflicting maritime claims, which represent the most likely flashpoint in today's South-East Asia, despite there being other important issues to consider. The key question is whether any country can conceive of a rising China in the context of today's realities, as distinct from ideological preconceptions and national prejudices.

Dr Munir finds the economic data showing that far from China swamping other countries by “its” exports, these are really mostly exports of its major investors based there. It is a China “at the centre of regional and international division of labour” and of regional and international economic integration.

Between 2009 and 2010, imports into Asean countries from the US declined sharply while imports from China rose even more sharply. It gives a whole new meaning to “import substitution” in South-East Asia, apart from everything else.

Complex situations framed with delicate issues require sensitive and nuanced responses. A hyperpower anxious to even the score in the region will only act like the proverbial bull in the china shop, upsetting everybody's applecarts to nobody's benefit.

The rapid pace of changes is undisputed.

Dr Munir says China's economy may become the world's biggest by 2030, but others like the IMF now put it earlier at 2016.

VIEWS By BUNN NAGARA newsdesk@thestar.com.my

 Related post:South-East Asia in the frontline of US containing China rise?

China's leadership changes

Xi will have to address a slowing of economic growth that threatens party's claim to prosperity [Reuters]

China's new Politburo standing committee, from left, Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Zhang Dejiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Liu Yunshan, Wang Qishan and Zhang Gaoli. Photo: Reuters
 
Ruling Communist Party unveils new seven-member Politburo Standing Committee that will govern nation for next decade.

State media says Xi Jinping is to take the reins of China's all-powerful Communist Party in a leadership transition that will put him in charge of the world's number-two economy for the next decade.

Xi, the current vice president and successor to President Hu Jintao, assumes power at an uncertain time with the party facing urgent calls to clean its ranks of corruption and overhaul its economic model as growth stutters.

His long-expected ascension as head of the ruling party took place at 0400 GMT along with the unveiling of a new Politburo Standing Committee, the nation's top decision-making body.

According to tradition, the members marched out before the media in a pecking order agreed after years of factional bargaining, a process which intensified in the months leading up to the five-yearly reshuffle.

In-depth coverage of China's Communist Party congress

Xi will consolidate his position at the apex of national politics by being named China's president by the rubber-stamp legislature next March, for a tenure expected to last through two five-year terms.

The standing committee, which had nine members under Hu has been slimmed to seven and includes Vice Premier Li Keqiang, which would set him on the path to be be appointed premier from next March.

Other members include Zhang Dejiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Liu Yunshan, Wang Qishan and Zhang Gaoli.

They will be tasked with addressing a rare deceleration of economic growth that threatens the party's key claim to legitimacy - continually improving the livelihoods of the country's 1.3 billion people.

China also bubbles with localised unrest often sparked by public rage at corruption, government abuses, and the myriad manifestations of anger among the millions left out of the country's economic boom.

The communists have a monopoly on political power in China and state appointments are decided within the party.

The process began with behind-the-scenes horse-trading and political deals.

It was essentially finalised on Wednesday when the party ended a week-long congress by announcing a new Central Committee of 205 people.

On Thursday, the Central Committee approved the higher leadership bodies, including the elite Politburo Standing Committee.

Factional politics

Observers believe two main factions have been jockeying for power, one centred largely on proteges of former president Jiang Zemin and another linked to allies of Hu.

Xi is considered a consensus figure who leans toward Jiang, while Li has long been seen as a Hu protege.

Analysts say that despite rivalries between the two camps which are largely divided on patronage lines, they broadly agree China must realign its economy away from a dependence on exports, while maintaining a firm hand on dissent.

The government has ramped up security in Beijing and on the nation's popular social media sites to prevent any criticism during the gathering.

The run-up to this year's congress was unsettled by events surrounding Bo Xilai, a political star seen as a candidate for a top post until a scandal in which his wife was convicted of murdering a British businessman.

The sensational affair torpedoed Bo's political career, he will face trial for charges of corruption and abuse of power, and added to the intrigue in the run-up to the transition.

Agencies
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FB postings became street fight!

KUALA LUMPUR: Two teenagers, who had traded insults over each other's looks in their Facebook postings, decided to settle the score in the open with a catfight that eventually became a street brawl which also involved their family members and friends.

In typical catfight style, there was a lot of scratching, slapping, hair-pulling, shirt-shredding, punches and kicks which left the two girls and their supporters with a lot of bruises and lost pride.

It is learnt that some of them suffered minor injuries in the incident that happened at around midnight in Kepong on Monday.

It is understood the two 18-year-old girls, both from Sentul, had started their Facebook war on Sunday after commenting about each other's photo.

A flurry of derogatory remarks and name-calling followed, leading to both agreeing to fight it out in Kepong.

One of them brought along her husband and brother while the other came with her boyfriend and four male friends.

A heated quarrel followed, which led to each side using physical force on the other.

The girl who came with her husband and brother alleged that a member of the opposing side pulled out a parang and threatened to slash all three of them.

Both sides later lodged police reports but no arrests have been made so far, said city CID chief Senior Asst Comm Datuk Ku Chin Wah.

“The incident is being investigated under the Penal Code for criminal intimidation, voluntarily causing hurt and causing mischief,” he said yesterday.

By STEVEN DANIEL The Star./Asia News Network

Related:

US secession bids after election

US election: Unhappy Americans ask to secede from US

More than 100,000 Americans have petitioned the White House to allow their states to secede from the US, after President Barack Obama's re-election.

 

The petitions were filed after President Barack Obama's re-election.
 

The appeals were filed on the White House's We the People website.

Most of the 20 states with petitions voted for Republican Mitt Romney.

The US constitution contains no provisions for states to secede from the union. By Monday night the White House had not responded.

In total, more than 20 petitions have been filed. One for Texas has reached the 25,000-signature threshold at which the White House promises a response.

'Blatant abuses'
 
The last time states officially seceded, the US Civil War followed.

Most of the petitions merely quote the opening line of America's Declaration of Independence from Britain, in which America's founders stated their right to "dissolve the political bands" and form a new nation.

Currently, the most popular petition is from Texas, which voted for Mr Romney by some 15 percentage points more than it did for the Democratic incumbent.

The text complains of "blatant abuses" of Americans' rights.

It cites the Transportation Security Administration, whose staff have been accused of intrusive screening at airports.

News
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NUS terminates Alvin's Asean scholarship over his Internet sexploits

PETALING JAYA: The National University of Singapore has terminated sex blogger Alvin Tan’s scholarship over his Internet sexploits.

The National University of Singapore (NUS) has terminated the scholarship of sex blogger Alvin Tan. --ST PHOTO: DESMOND FOO 

The prestigious university, however, stopped short of expelling the 24-year-old from law school but he will have to pay full non-subsidised fees as a foreign student should he resume studies, reported Singapore Straits Times, quoting unnamed sources.

Tan was an Asean scholar and had been on “leave of absence” from his classes for almost a year when he started uploading pornographic pictures and videos of himself and his girlfriend Vivian Lee on a blog titled “Sumptuous Erotica”.

Tan has refused to comment on the university’s decision. “I’m sorry but I can’t comment. I’m bound by a confidentiality agreement,” he said.

The university has also kept mum, with the spokesman stating that the school’s disciplinary proceedings were confidential.

An estimate shows that it may have cost the Singapore go­­­vernment – the benefactor of the Asean scholarship programme – at least RM275,000 to fund all of Tan’s seven years of study in the city state.

The highly prestigious scholarship is awarded to only 170 undergraduates from nine Asean countries annually. It covers tuition fees, accommodation and also provides an allowance for the recipients.

Last week, after deciding on the punishment, the university said Tan’s actions were “inappropriate and was detrimental to the reputation and dignity of the university”.

Singapore Education Minister Heng Swee Keat also told Parliament on Monday that Tan’s behaviour was “reprehensible and unbecoming of a scholar”.

Tan said he apologised to the university during the disciplinary hearing on Oct 31.

Meanwhile, both he and Lee have deleted all of their Facebook posts referring to the blog.

By REGINA LEE The Star/Asia News Network

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U.S. to Overtake Saudi Arabia, Russia as World's Top Energy Producer

Oil derricks like this one outside of Williston, North Dakota, are part of a shale oil boom that has helped put the United States on track to overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's leading oil producer.

Photograph by Gregory Bull, AP

In an indication how “fracking” is reshaping the global energy picture, the International Energy Agency today projected that the United States will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer by 2017.

And within just three years, the United States will unseat Russia as the largest producer of natural gas.

Both results would have been unthinkable even few short years ago, but the future geography of supply has shifted dramatically due to what IEA calls America’s “energy renaissance.” To credit are the sometimes controversial technologies like hydraulic fracturing of shale and deepwater production that have enabled the industry to tap into abundant, unconventional sources of oil and gas. New energy frontiers have opened in North Dakota and Pennsylvania. (Related: “ Natural Gas Stirs Hope and Fear in Pennsylvania”)

The bottom line for the United States is fulfillment of a goal that eluded seven presidents over nearly four decades: energy independence. The U.S., which imports 20 percent of its total energy now, will be come largely self-sufficient by 2035, concluded the IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook, often viewed as the Bible of the industry. Add in Canada, which has its own unconventional production boom in Alberta’s oil sands, and the continent is set to be a net oil exporter by 2030.

“North America is at the forefront of a sweeping transformation in oil and gas production that will affect all regions of the world,” said Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the IEA, a Paris-based organization charged with maintaining global energy security.  (Related Interactive: Breaking Fuel From Rock)

Catching Saudi Arabia

U.S. imports of oil are on track to fall from 10 million to 4 million barrels per day, Fatih Birol, IEA’s chief economist and the main author of the report, told a London news conference. However, he added, increased domestic production, including biofuel, only accounts for 55 percent of huge reduction in imported oil. The other 45 percent is due to the ramping up of improving federal fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks.

According to IEA, by 2020, America’s oil production will reach 11.1 million barrels per day, up from 8.1 million in 2011. Saudi Arabia’s production, meanwhile, will decline from 11.1 million to 10.6 million barrels per day. The renewed U.S. reign at the top of world oil producers may be short-lived. By 2025, IEA projects, U.S. production will slip back to 10.9 million barrels per day, but Saudi Arabia’s will have increased only to 10.8 million barrels per day.

The picture on natural gas is even more dramatic. By 2015, the U.S. should be producing 679 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas, up from 604 bcm in 2010. That will be enough to edge out Russia, where production will be increasing too, but projected only to reach 675 bcm in three years. By 2020, the spread between the two nations will widen, with U.S. production of 747 bcm, well ahead of Russia’s forecast 704 bcm. The U.S. should become a net gas exporter by 2020, the report adds.

No Country an Island

“The global energy landscape is changing rapidly, recasting the roles of countries and fuels,” van der Hoeven said. What is happening in North America will certainly affect other countries worldwide, she added. “No country is an energy island.” For example, as America’s need for imported oil declines, Asia is rapidly taking up the slack. The report estimates that by 2035, fully 90 percent of Middle East oil exports will head for Asia. That’s a shift that will require Asian countries to put more resources toward keeping strategic shipping routes of oil secure. “There is a major new trade axis building between the Middle East and Asia,” Birol said.

Indeed, Iraq alone will see its exports to Asia jump from 50 percent of output to 80 percent. (Related: “Iraq Poised to Lead World Oil Supply Growth, but Obstacles Loom”) The IEA reiterated its forecast last month that Iraq’s production of oil would jump from 3 million to 8 million barrels per day by 2035, helping the war-torn country leapfrog over Russia to become the world’s second largest exporter of oil, after Saudi Arabia.

Another effect of the altered energy landscape are large variances in natural gas prices. A few years ago, global prices of natural gas changed little from region to region. But natural gas prices in Europe are now five times higher than in the U.S., and Asia’s are eight times greater. However, van der Hoeven said, as more gas becomes available globally for exports, that should push prices down outside the United States, too.

Demand Still Growing

The overall demand for energy worldwide should grow by a third between now and 2035, the report said, from 12,380 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2010 to 16,730 Mtoe in 2035, an increase driven by the rise in living standards in China, India and the Middle East. The share of demand for energy in the developing world will jump from 55 percent in 2010 to 65 percent in 2035, powered by China, which will see its demand for energy increase by 60percent over that period. (Related: “Pictures: A Rare Look Inside China’s Energy Machine”)

Demand for energy in the mostly wealthy developed countries that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) will essentially be flat, IEA projects. Use of coal and oil to meet that demand should drop to just 42 percent from 57 percent today.

The IEA chided world governments for failing to do enough to improve energy efficiency, saying that two-third of the economic potential to improve efficiency is not being realized. If those efficiencies were tapped, it said, total energy demand between now and 2035 could be halved, without any decline in living standards.

Globally, demand for fossil fuels will continue to grow in absolute terms through 2035, but together their total share of the energy mix should drop from 81 percent to 75 percent. Worldwide demand for oil is forecast to grow to 99.7 million barrels per day in 2035, up from 87.4 million last year, with China alone accounting for half that amount.

By 2035, the IEA said, the price of oil is expected to be $125 per barrel in inflation-adjusted terms, though the nominal price is enough to induce sticker shock in 2012: $215.

Global natural gas demand should increase by 50 percent to 5 trillion cubic meters (tcm) in 2035. Within OECD countries, gas is overtaking coal as the fuel of choice for generating electricity. In the U.S., for instance, the amount of electricity generated by coal has fallen from 50 percent to 32 percent in just a few years. Although use of coal will continue to fall in the U.S., Europe and Japan, overall demand for coal should still grow by 21 percent through 2035, because of increasing use in China and India.

particularly Germany and Japan, are cutting back on nuclear power in the wake of the 2011 accident at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, nuclear power is still expected to account for 12 percent of global electricity generation by 2035, thanks to increased use of nuclear power in China, Korea and Russia.

Electric generation from renewables should grow from 20 percent in 2010 to 31 percent by 2035, IEA projects. Within OECD countries, most of that growth comes from increased wind energy production, while in non-OECD countries, hydro power is the main source of clean energy. Growth in demand for renewables, including biofuels, are still largely driven by government subsidies, the report said. Last year, those subsidies totaled $88 billion, a 24 percent increase from 2010.

Overall demand for electricity will skyrocket by more than 70 percent by 2035, reaching 32,000 Terrawatt hours (TWh), with almost all that increase coming from non-OECD countries, with China and India alone accounting for half of it. Prices for electricity overall should increase 15 percent by 2035, but some regions will pay much more than others. In the U.S., for instance, average household electricity prices in 2035 should be around 14 cents per kilowatt hours (kWh), while Europe’s will average closer to 25 cents per kWh. That big difference in the cost of electricity will likely give American industry a competitive advantage over European rivals, Birol said.

Amid its forecast for rising energy demand and production, the report, unsurprisingly, does not paint an optimistic picture of efforts to contain greenhouse gas emissions. IEA projects that energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will rise from an estimated 31.2 gigatonnes (Gt) last year to 37 Gt in 2035, which could cause a long-term average temperature increase of 3.6 degrees Celsius. In a nonbinding accord signed in 2009 in Copenhagen, nations agreed that the scientific view was that the temperature rise should be limited to 2 degrees Celsius, but efforts to forge a global agreement to cut fossil fuel emissions have been unsuccessful. (Related: “IEA Outlook: Time Running Out on Climate Change

This story is part of a special series that explores energy issues. For more, visit The Great Energy Challenge.

Sources: Thomas K. Grose in London  For National Geographic News

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South-East Asia in the frontline of US containing China rise?