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Sunday 15 September 2013

Tracing the origins of the formation of Malaysia Sept 16

Historic moment:Sabah's first Governor Tun Mustapha Datu Harun taking his oath of office on Sept 16, 1963

The idea of Malaysia came to fruition in 1963 as a culmination of the combined forces of decolonisation and expanding South-East Asian nationalisms.

THE famous announcement on May 27, 1961 by Tunku Abdul Rahman, then the Prime Minister of the Federation of Malaya, calling for forging closer political and economic cooperation between Malaya, Singapore, North Borneo, Brunei and Sarawak, is generally taken as the starting point for the formation of Malaysia on Sept 16, 1963. The roots of the Malaysia scheme, however, go further back in time and were embedded in British plans hatched in 1942 for the decolonisation of South-East Asia in the post-Second World War period.

In fact, such an idea was first suggested in 1893 by Lord Brassey, director of the British North Borneo Company, who proposed the amalgamation of all British possessions in South-East Asia into “one large colony”. Brassey’s proposal, however, did not find favour with the British Government.

The outbreak of the Second World War and the subsequent capture of all British colonial possessions in South-East Asia by the Japanese changed everything. The British felt humiliated and partly laid the blame for their defeat on the disunited nature of their territorial possessions in South-East Asia which made it difficult to organise a coordinated defence.

In 1942, the Colonial Office led by its Eastern Department headed by G. Edward Gent began to lay plans for a more coordinated post-war policy in South-East Asia. This policy was founded on two principles: preparing dependent territories for the goal of self-rule, and integrating smaller units into larger political blocs.

The justification given for the second objective was administrative efficiency, economic development, political stability and defence viability. Anchoring their policy on these two principles, the Colonial Office laid plans for a “Grand Design” in South-East Asia after the Second World War. This called for the creation of a “union”, a “federation”; a “confederation” or a “dominion” of all British territories in the Malayan-Borneo region.

This large union or federation was to include the Malay states, Straits Settlements, North Borneo, Sarawak and Brunei. This “Grand Design”, which may be appropriately named the “Colonial Malaysia Scheme”, was to be achieved gradually and in stages beginning with political integration in two separate blocs, that is, between Malaya and Singapore on the one hand, and between the Borneo territories on the other.

Confirming this line of action, J. D. Higham of the Colonial Office minuted on Jan 20, 1953 as follows: “Our original idea was that Malaya and Singapore would form one bloc and Sarawak, North Borneo and Brunei, another, and that the two blocs might then merge into some sort of confederation.”

From 1946 to 1949, and even later, the British Government wished to push ahead with the process of integration within the two blocs, but political, strategic and economic exigencies and contingencies on the ground, such as the importance of maintaining Singapore as a naval base, the desire to push the Malayan Union proposals in Malaya, managing the Anti-Cession movement in Sarawak, and the wide gap in the political, economic and social development between the Malayan and Borneo territories, hindered all attempts to bring about any union within these blocs.

Seeing that integration in two separate blocs was not working, the British Government revived the “Grand Design” or the “Colonial Malaysia Scheme” idea in 1949.

Towards this end, the British Government created the post of the British Commissioner-General for South-East Asia to act as a coordinating body in the region. The man chosen for the job was Malcolm MacDonald.

Although he tried very hard, MacDonald achieved little success from 1949 to 1951, however. In 1951, he began to introduce new innovations, the most important being the setting up of branches of the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association (CPA) in the British territories in the Malayan-Borneo region.

By this move, MacDonald was able to foster much regional solidarity and goodwill among the local leaders through the mechanism of CPA meetings. In light of strong support especially from non-officials for a wider regional integration, MacDonald began to push vigorously for the realisation of the “Grand Design” or a British Dominion of South-East Asia in 1952.

Independence and expansion 

But the Commissioner-General’s exuberance was short-lived. By the early months of 1953, support for the Grand Design or Colonial Malaysia began to dissipate mainly as a result of uncompromising attitudes of British colonial officials in Malaya and Singapore. Ongoing animosity between top British administrators of these two states forced the Colonial Office to abandon the idea of forming an overall British Dominion of South-East Asia in favour of the pre-1951 formula of encouraging the formation of separate political blocs.

While the Colonial Office concentrated its efforts in improving relations between Malaya and Singapore, a strong initiative commenced in the Borneo region in 1953 to promote greater administrative coordination between North Borneo, Sarawak and Brunei with a view of their “ultimate federation”.

Political developments in Malaya also began to take fundamental decision-making out of the hands of the colonial masters. The formation of the Alliance Party comprising Umno, MCA and MIC in 1954 and its resounding victory in the 1955 elections to the Federal Council effectively placed Malayan leaders in charge of their destiny.

Under the dynamic leadership of Tunku, Umno and the Alliance, Malaya thus began to move towards independence at a pace far ahead of the British “time-table”. In this context, the views of Tunku and Umno concerning the Malaya-Singapore merger and the wider Colonial Malaysia Scheme became decisive.

Although there grew a strong body of opinion in Singapore in 1954 and 1955 advocating merger with the Federation of Malaya, Tunku and Umno strongly opposed such a union. They feared being outnumbered by the addition of over a million Chinese; that the Malays would lose political dominance; and that Malaya’s security would be seriously threatened. The British, taking stock of the situation, could not countenance merger in the face of Umno’s rejection.

As far as the Colonial Malaysia Scheme was concerned, Tunku in fact lent support to the idea in 1955 and 1956, but the format was to be “Greater Malaya”, which was to be established in the future after Singapore, Sarawak, Brunei and North Borneo had achieved independence.

In 1956, Tunku was more concerned in winning independence for Malaya in a hurry and did not want any scheme of merger or territorial expansion to derail this supreme objective.

“At this stage,” he declared in 1956, “it is wise to be prudent like Kamal Ataturk who resolutely opposed territorial expansion in favour of improving Turkey itself first. Thus, when Malaya achieved independence in 1957 ahead of the colonial “time-table” and ahead of Singapore, the British Grand Design was rendered untenable and therefore remained unfulfilled.

But the idea of Malaysia remained alive both in the minds of the British and Tunku, and finally came to fruition in 1963 as a culmination of the combined forces of decolonisation and expanding South-East Asian nationalisms.

Tunku’s Malaysia
       
After achieving independence for Malaya in 1957, Tunku Abdul Rahman again broached the subject of forming Malaysia on May 27, 1961. His motivation were, however, slightly different than those of the British. One was to help complete the unfinished British Grand Design of decolonisation, which had been derailed as a result of Malaya’s unexpected independence. When this Grand Design had to be aborted in 1957, Britain began to face an intractable dilemma of finding a workable solution for decolonising the rest of her colonial possessions in the region.

The British found it unfeasible to grant independence separately to Singapore, North Borneo, Sarawak and Brunei as they were too small or too weak politically, economically and in security terms to survive alone. They were also extremely vulnerable to the forces of expanding communism, a situation the British colonial masters wished to avoid for the preservation of their own interests in the region.

In Borneo, the British tried to find a workable solution by fostering the formation of a North Borneo Federation from 1957 to 1960. This attempt failed miserably due to the opposition of the Sultan of Brunei, the rise of Party Rakyat Brunei which wanted to establish Negara Kalimantan Utara linked to Indonesia, and the rising tide of communism in Sarawak spearheaded by the Sarawak Communist Clandestine Organisation.

The Singapore problem became even more alarming with the stark possibility of a communist takeover of the government in 1961.

In these dire circumstances, the British began to look to Malaya and Tunku Abdul Rahman, who was quite ready to do the job for them but had another motive as well for the creation of Malaysia. This second orientation was the desire for territorial expansion, an impulse very much consistent with the phenomenon of expanding nationalisms at the time especially in insular South-East Asia.

Paradoxically, the rise of nationalism in the Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei and the Federation of Malaya also produced a desire among the leaders of these countries for territorial expansion in the region for various reasons.

In the Philippines, the main architect of this nationalist expansion was Diosdado Macapagal who, since the country’s independence in 1946, began to advocate the extension of Philippine jurisdiction on all former Spanish possessions including the Turtle Islands and North Borneo.

Sukarno in Indonesia, wanting to resurrect the Majapahit Empire, laid claim to all former Dutch colonies in the region, including West New Guinea (West Irian) which was not handed over by the Dutch to the Indonesian Republic in 1949. Indonesia also had designs over British Borneo, over which it was casting “covetous eyes” as early as 1953.

Tunku’s Malaysia Scheme also smacked of expansionist aims. He basically wanted North Borneo, Sarawak and Brunei as part of Greater Malaya and was willing to bring in Singapore only if the British Borneo territories were brought in first. In Brunei, Party Rakyat Brunei led by A. M. Azahari was seriously advocating the revival of the former Brunei Empire in the form of Negara Kalimantan Utara from 1956 to 1962.

These expanding nationalisms overlapped in the territorial milieu and produced a period of intense conflict. The concepts of Greater Malaya, Greater Brunei, Greater Indonesia and Greater Philippines were totally irreconcilable and were bound to produce political turmoil in the region.

There was in fact also strong opposition initially from the peoples of British Borneo against Tunku’s Greater Malaya. A great deal of diplomacy and safeguards were necessary to gain their support, and even then Brunei stayed out.

Sabah and Sarawak indeed claim they did not join Malaysia, but formed Malaysia as equal partners with Malaya and Singapore.

Contributed by By Prof Dr D.S. Ranjit Singh
> The writer is Visiting Professor at the College of Law, Government and International Studies, Universiti Utara Malaysia (ranjit@uum.edu.my

Malaysia needs to produce more houses to achieve 20/20 by 2020


KL to rank 20th Most Competitive and 20th Most Livable City by 2020


AS I walked the streets in Melbourne, people are either taking pleasure in their daily activities or catching up with their friends. More importantly, they are enjoying an abundance of economic and lifestyle opportunities, supported by their affordable housing prices and convenient transportation. It comes as no surprise that the city has been ranked as the world most livable city by The Economist for years.

Melbourne tops the list as the most livable location, according to a survey of 140 cities conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

For Malaysians, the good news is, Kuala Lumpur ranked second in South-East Asia after Singapore on the same list, while the challenging part is we were at No. 77 in the world ranking, according to the survey last year.

In terms of competitiveness, the World Economic Forum (WEF) has ranked Malaysia as the 24th most competitive nation among 148 countries in its Global Competitiveness Report 2013-2014. Under the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP), the Government aspires to elevate Kuala Lumpur to be the top 20 most economically dynamic cities and top 20 most livable cities by 2020.

To realise these goals, we need to gear up our efforts in building both the hard and soft infrastructure of the country. And if we are to be a truly developed nation, one of the most critical criteria is to have more homes, as the nation’s housing needs must first be addressed to ensure quality living.

Let’s take a look at how developed nations house their people. Take Australia as an example, where four of its cities, i.e. Melbourne, Adelaide, Sydney and Perth, ranked in the top 10 most livable cities as measured by the Global Liveability Survey in 2012. Australia has a population of around 22 million living in 9.1 million homes, according to its census in 2011, which means their average person per household is 2.5.

Another developed nation in Europe, United Kingdom, has a population of 62.7 million people and number of homes is approximately 25 million, which also works out to have an average of 2.5 persons per household.

In Malaysia, while our population is about 28 million, we only have about 4.6 million homes, according to National Property Information Centre. This is equal to 6.08 persons per household. For us to catch up with Australia and United Kingdom which have an average of 2.5 persons in a household, we would require a total of 11.3 million homes in our country, which is a 250% increase from what we have currently!

However, at our current housing production of about 100,000 homes a year, it would take us 67 years to catch up with the benchmark displayed by these developed nations, assuming there is no additional increase in population.

The statistic above paints a picture of the fundamental required for a developed nation. As a developing nation, the Government and the relevant private sectors need to find ways to grow the number of homes in Malaysia. We are in need of more housing especially when the Government aims to move our country towards developed nation, and to grow the population of Greater KL from 6 million people to 10 million by the year 2020, which would put further pressure on the housing market in urban areas.

Currently, production has not been able to keep up with demand and this has pushed up housing prices. Having ample supply is the only long-term sustainable way to keep housing affordable. The Government needs to streamline the delivery system to increase the number of homes built every year, instead of stifling the supply which also include the cooling off measures which may eventually lead to higher prices due to inadequate supply.

Imagine if we are having 11.6 million houses today instead of 4.6 million, our house prices would be more affordable due to ample supply. The bottom line is we need more houses, especially affordable houses. It will help in the long run if the authorities can find ways to encourage housing supply, and this include putting off cooling measures on the property industry which only work in the short run as shared in my last article “Cooling Off Measures Choke Supply”.

More production of houses will make prices more affordable. And, if the Government can further support the housing needs with infrastructure including having a good public transportation system, the aspirations of making Kuala Lumpur the top 20 most livable and most competitive cities in the world can become a reality by 2020.

FOOD FOR THOUGHT BY ALAN HONG KOK MAU
FIABCI Asia Pacific chairman DATUK ALAN TONG has over 50 years of experience in property development. He was FIABCI World president in 2005/06 and was named Property Man of The Year 2010. He is also the group chairman of Bukit Kiara Properties.

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Friday 13 September 2013

Prevent ATM thieves and cyber crimes on the rise

Banks to arm machines with ink bombs to stain stolen notes


PETALING JAYA: Thieves who rob automated teller machines will be left with worthless pieces of paper if a Bank Negara proposal is put into place. Dye bombs are to be placed in the ATMs and if anyone tampers with the machines, the “bomb” goes off, leaving the notes stained in red and easily recognisable as stolen money.

Bank Negara, in its guidelines on Dye-Stained Banknotes dated Aug 26, is calling on both banks and Cash in Transit Companies to consider using the currency protection device (CPD) to deter ATM theft.

Local security company Extro Code Sdn Bhd demonstrated yesterday a CPD or dye pack which is already available in the market.

Its technical director Mohd Zaki Sulaiman said that once installed, the dye pack would be triggered when someone tries to break into the ATM.

“The device is like a smoke bomb which releases the ink onto the stacks of banknotes in the ATM,” he said.

Mohd Zaki said there’s no actual explosion but there is some heat when the CPD is triggered.“The actual triggering mechanism is a trade secret,” he added.

He said the ink called Disperse Red 9 was not harmful. He said the ink was imported but the actual CPD was developed and produced locally.

Mohd Zaki declined to reveal the cost of each dye pack and the installation cost. “Who pays for the device will depend on Bank Negara and the banks,” he said.

He said there are four ATM providers in the country but installing the dye-packs in the different machines should not be a problem.

The Bank Negara guidelines state that the CPD would emit a bright coloured dye by smoke, liquid or any other agent to stain the currency in the event ATMs are broken into.

This will enable authorities and the public to easily identify the defaced stolen currency and render them unfit for use.

The guidelines also sets out conditions under which these banknotes will be replaced. Among them:
  • > The ink has to be indelible by water, fuel, gas, bleach and detergent.
  • > It must be traceable to the ATM, to assist police investigations.
  • > It must stain at least 10% of each bank note.
  • > It can be detected and rejected by banknotes authentication machines used by banks such as Cash 

Deposit Machines. >It must be non-hazardous and non-toxic.

If banks retrieved the dye-stained currency, they can submit the banknotes to the central bank for assessment.
Tellers will also be trained to detect these banknotes.

The public and retailers will be advised not to accept dye-stained banknotes as they are likely to be stolen.

These measure, Bank Negara believes, will reduce ATM robberies.

In the United States, banks have dye bombs in vaults and any unauthorised person who tries to remove any money will trigger the bomb, leaving all the money – and the robber – stained in ink.


Related stories:
9000 machines nationwide to have CPD
Cops welcome currency protection device proposal

Cyber crimes on the rise - millions of ringgit being lost annually to scams
Public awareness: (From left) Ambank deputy managing director Datuk Mohamed Azmi Mahmood, Khalid and AmIslamic Bank Berhad CEO Datuk Mahdi Morad at the launch of the Scam Alert campaign in Bukit Aman. 
Public awareness: (From left) Ambank deputy managing director Datuk Mohamed Azmi Mahmood, Khalid and AmIslamic Bank Berhad CEO Datuk Mahdi Morad at the launch of the Scam Alert campaign in Bukit Aman 

KUALA LUMPUR: Fraud and cyber crimes in the country have risen unchecked due to the lack of public awareness, while victims are hesitant to report the crime, the police said.

Millions of ringgit have been lost annually to crimes like sms scams and parcel scams, which have mostly gone unnoticed in the public eye.

In a bid to stop such crimes, the police has launched an awareness initiative on the various types of scams in the country.

Inspector-General of Police Tan Sri Khalid Abu Bakar said the initiative, under the National Blue Ocean Strategy, comprised cooperation with the Association of Banks in Malaysia (ABM) and the Association of Islamic Banking Institutions Malaysia (AIBIM).

The public would be informed and educated on the different types of fraud and cyber crime scams being used by today’s criminals.

“We are posting a list of the various methods and modus operandi used in these scams at our official police website at www.rmp.gov.my.

“This will be linked to the websites of all banks in the country so that anyone can easily access the information which will be regularly updated,” he said after launching the initiative at Bukit Aman yesterday.

Khalid said RM98.6mil in losses was recorded last year in cases involving cyber crimes, including Internet banking fraud as well as sms and parcel scams.

“So far this year, such losses have reached RM80.7mil, which shows that such cases and losses are increasing,” he said.

He added that losses to sms scams had jumped from RM5.8mil last year to RM39.2mil so far this year.

- The Star/Asia News Network

Thursday 12 September 2013

China's steams ahead; Reforms enter critical stage

Industrial Output growth at quickest pace in 17 months

China’s industrial output grew at the fastest pace in 17 months in August and the broadest measure of new credit almost doubled from July as a recovery in the world’s second-largest economy gains traction.

Factory production rose 10.4 percent from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing today, Aggregate financing was 1.57 trillion yuan ($257 billion), the central bank said, topping the median analyst estimate of 950 billion yuan. UBS AG said China’s liquidity and credit squeeze appears over, while Societe Generale SA said corporate and local-government debt is rising from already alarming levels.


Premier Li Keqiang said today that August data show a recovery trend, after the government used measures from tax cuts to extra spending on railways to defend the year’s 7.5 percent expansion goal. As Communist Party leaders prepare for a November meeting to discuss policy reforms, Li said that industrialization and urbanization will fuel growth, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.

“The government growth target appears within reach, which reduces the chance of stimulus and allows the government to focus on reform,” said Ding Shuang, senior China economist at Citigroup Inc. in Hong Kong.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.2 percent to the highest close since June. The yuan was little changed at 6.1200 per dollar.

The gain in output compared with a median forecast of 9.9 percent in a Bloomberg News survey. The government doesn’t release separate industrial data for January and February, which are distorted by the Chinese New Year holiday.

‘Downside Risk’

“If credit growth picks up persistently from here, China’s current growth recovery may well last a bit longer and go a bit further,” said Yao Wei, China economist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong. “However, that only adds to the downside risk afterwards, as the leverage of Chinese corporates and local governments keeps rising from the already alarmingly high level.”

Industrial production topped all 45 analysts’ estimates in a Bloomberg News survey, with projections ranging from 9.2 percent to 10.2 percent, following a 9.7 percent gain in July. Thirty-nine of 41 industries reported growth, including a 13.6 percent gain in ferrous metals and 12.3 percent in chemicals, according to the statistics agency.

Steel production rose 15.6 percent in August, up from 10.9 percent in July, and electricity output expanded 13.4 percent, compared with 8.1 percent the previous month.

Retail Sales

Retail sales advanced 13.4 percent, while fixed-asset investment excluding rural households increased 20.3 percent in the January-August period, both topping estimates.

The median estimate for retail sales was a 13.3 percent advance after 13.2 percent in July. Fixed-asset investment was projected by economists to rise 20.2 percent in the January-August period, after a 20.1 percent gain in the first seven months of the year.

A separate report today showed China’s passenger-vehicle sales gained the most in four months in August, led by sales of sport utility vehicles. Wholesale deliveries of cars, multipurpose and sport utility vehicles climbed 11 percent to 1.35 million units, according to the state-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers today.

China’s exports rose 7.2 percent from a year earlier, the General Administration of Customs said Sept. 8. That exceeded the 5.5 percent median estimate of analysts. At the same time, imports rose a less-than-estimated 7 percent from a year earlier, leaving a trade surplus of more than $28 billion.

Inflation, Stimulus

Consumer prices rose 2.6 percent in August, the statistics bureau said yesterday, leaving room for extra stimulus if needed. The producer-price index (SHCOMP) fell 1.6 percent, the least since February.

Premier Li, in an opinion article published yesterday in the Financial Times, said the economy “will maintain its sustained and healthy growth,” with expansion around a 7.5 percent “lower limit” intended to ensure steady growth and employment.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. last week raised its estimate for China’s economic growth for the third and fourth quarters, citing improving global demand and a stronger-than-expected domestic industrial recovery. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG raised their growth forecasts over the past month, bolstering optimism that Li will meet the government’s target for expansion this year.

Analyst Forecasts

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News last month gave a median estimate for 7.5 percent expansion this quarter and 7.3 percent in the October-December period.

China’s top solar-panel makers are returning to profitability following two years of losses as higher demand and prices drive up margins. JinkoSolar Holding Co. last month reported second-quarter net income of $8 million, its first profit since the third quarter of 2011, as sales jumped 43 percent from a year earlier.

In other economies today, French industrial production unexpectedly fell in July from the previous month, while Italy released final figures for second-quarter gross domestic product that showed a deeper contraction than initially estimated.

- Contributed 

Reforms enter critical stage, says Premier Li Keqiang 

Finance-sector restructuring poses the greatest challenges as drive moves into 'deep-water zone'

Premier Li Keqiang says Beijing's economic restructuring drive has entered a critical stage, with an overhaul of the financial sector one of the most important and most complicated tasks to be tackled.

Indicating concerns that the world's second-largest economy might decelerate too much as overdone, Li said the central government was confident it could meet this year's economic goals through structural reform, ruling out the need to significantly loosen fiscal or monetary policy to stimulate short-term growth.

Financial reform is an important part of economic system reform. It is a complex, systemic project
In his opening speech to the World Economic Forum in Dalian yesterday, Li also said the government would seek to identify the core issues in reforms, which, once implemented, could exert a major impact on the entire process.

"Financial reform is an important part of economic system reform," he said. "It is a complex, systemic project, and because it is such a complex, systemic project, it means China's reforms have entered a deep-water zone, or the most difficult phase." In the next stage, he said, the key was to stick to market-oriented principles. The government would "actively and steadily" push forward with interest rate and exchange rate liberalisation, promote the yuan's convertibility under the capital account, and ease barriers for new, smaller players to enter the state-dominated financial industry, he said.

The steps already taken by Beijing to stem a sharp slowdown in economic growth had had an effect, he said.

"Some people expressed concern about whether China's growth might decelerate too fast, as some other countries experienced, or even see a so-called hard landing," he said.

But Li said the economy's fundamentals were "sound" and its operations stable.

The mainland's economic growth cooled to 7.5 per cent in the second quarter, from 7.7 per cent in the first and 7.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year, hit by global headwinds and excess capacity at home.

Since then, Beijing has cut tax for small companies, boosted investment in railways in poorer regions, and raised spending on urban facilities, while maintaining its grip on credit growth.

Industrial output growth jumped to a 17-month high last month while export growth quickened, suggesting a solid recovery in economic dynamics.

Li also said that local governments' borrowings, highlighted by analysts as an area of concern for financial risks, remained "safe and controllable".

- Contributed by Victoria Ruan South China Morning Post

Premier Li Keqiang's Profile:

Li Keqiang, born in 1955, became China's premier in March 2013. Like ex-president Hu Jintao, his power base lies with the Communist Youth League, where he was a member of the secretariat of the league’s central committee in the 1980s and later in the 1990s the secretariat’s first secretary. His regional governance experience includes a period as vice party boss, governor and party boss of Henan province between 1998 and 2003 and party boss of Liaoning province beginning in 2004. He became vice premier in 2008. Li graduated from Peking University with a degree in economics.

Wednesday 11 September 2013

Many teachers not fit to teach, Malaysia Education Blueprint 2013-2025?




SHAH ALAM: About a third of English Language teachers in the country have been classified as “incapable” or “unfit” to teach the subject in schools.

Education Minister II Datuk Seri Idris Jusoh said such teachers had been sent for courses to improve their proficiency in the language.

“The ministry will also consider sending them overseas for exchange programmes to take up TESL (Teaching of English as a Second Language) courses,” he said during a dialogue session on the National Education Blueprint 2013-2025 held at the Karangkraf headquarters here yesterday.

Idris, who did not state the number of such teachers, assured that a good portion of them had enrolled in English courses locally.

Recently, it was revealed that about 70% out of the 60,000 English Language teachers, who sat for the English Language Cambridge Placement Test, performed poorly.

On allegations that the Government was sidelining vernacular schools through the blueprint, Idris denied this, saying “all schools were treated equally”.

“We do not sideline any party. In fact, the ministry encourages everyone to learn more languages. Be it Chinese, Tamil, French or Spanish, the government will be proud if a Malaysian can master these languages,” he stressed.

The United Chinese School Committees’ Association of Malaysia (Dong Zong) protested against the blueprint, saying that increasing teaching time for Bahasa Malaysia from 270 minutes to 300 minutes for lower primary and 180 minutes to 270 minutes for upper primary pupils was a move by the Government to eradicate mother tongue education.

- The Star/Asia News Network

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Monday 9 September 2013

Emerging economies in turmoil

The G20 Summit last week discussed a new phenomenon – economic turmoil beginning in some major developing countries – even as coordination to prevent future crises is still elusive.



WHAT a difference half a year makes. At the G20 Summit last week, attention turned to the weakening of the emerging economies.

This was a contrast to previous summits. Then, the major developing countries were seen as the drivers of global growth, as the developed countries’ economies were faltering.

For two years or so, the European crisis was the focus of anxiety. The American economy was also plagued with domestic problems. The economies of the developing world, including China, India, Brazil and Indonesia and other Asean countries, were the safety net keeping the global economy afloat.

But in its report for the G20 summit in St Petersburg, the IMF had to do an embarrassing about-turn. It reversed its previous theory that the emerging economies were on the fast-track and keeping the global growth going.

It now warned that the stagnation in these countries is now a drag on the global economy.

Developing countries’ leaders correctly point out that their economies have been victims to the developed countries’ monetary policies, especially the United States’ “quantitative easing” (QE), under which the Federal Reserve has been pumping US$85bil (RM283bil) a month into its banking system.

A lot of this ended up in developing countries’ equity and bond markets, as US investors searched for higher yields there, since the US interest rates have been kept near zero.

However, when the Fed chairman indicated the QE would be “tapering off” and long-term interest rates started rising in response, the capital invested in developing countries has been flowing back to the US.

Vulnerable emerging economies have been hard hit, and worse may yet come. Especially vulnerable are those which have a current account deficit, since they depend on capital inflows to fund these deficits.

The outflow of needed capital and the increased risk have caused their currencies and their stock markets to plunge. This in turn leads to more capital outflow, due to anticipation of further falls in equity prices and in the domestic currency itself. The currency depreciation also fuels inflation.

Thus, former stalwarts India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey are now the victims of a vicious circle.

In Indonesia, the currency fell last week across the 11,000 rupiah to the dollar mark (it was 9,500 a year ago), as the July monthly trade deficit rose to US$2.3bil (RM7.6bil) and the annual inflation rate hit 8.8% in August.

In India, the currency fell to 68 rupee to the dollar (from 56 a year ago) before recovering to 65 rupee after a well-received inaugural media conference by the new Central Bank Governor last Thursday.

India’s current account balance is running at around US$90bil a year, making it very dependent on capital inflows.

In mid-August, the government introduced limited capital control measures including restricting citizens’ money outflows to US$75,000 a person (from US$200,000 previously) and restraining local companies’ investments abroad.

The current account deficits are also significant in South Africa (US$25 billion in latest 12 months), Brazil (US$78 billion) and Turkey (US$54 billion), making them vulnerable to the vagaries of capital flows.

The South African rand has fallen in value by 18%. President Jacob Zuma blamed the currency slide on the potential tapering of the US quantitative easing.

“Decisions taken countries based solely on their own national interest can have serious implications for other countries,” he justifiably complained.

Malaysia’s currency value has also dropped recently, but the country is not as vulnerable as it has been running a current account surplus (US$14.2bil in the 12 months to June). However, the trade surplus has not been as strong recently and there is always a danger of “contagion effect”, which we know is often not based on rationality.

Countries affected have a few policy tools to deal with the situation. One is to try to stabilise the currency through the Central Bank purchasing the local currency by selling the US dollar.

But this is expensive, and the country may draw down its reserves, especially if speculators keep betting that its currency will fall by more. This is the bitter lesson that Thailand and others learnt in the 1997 financial crisis.

Another policy measure is capital controls. Ideally this should be imposed to prevent inflows.

But most countries allow the inflows in the good times, and then when these suddenly turn into outflows, the boom-bust problem if laid bare.

Malaysia in 1998-99 imposed controls on outflows of both residents and foreigners, which was effective in stopping the crisis. It was heavily criticised at that time, but now even the International Monetary Fund is recommending capital controls if the situation is bad enough.

Ultimately there has to be international reforms to prevent excessive capital flows from the source countries, and developed countries have to be disciplined so that their economic policies do not have negative fallout effects on developing countries.

But we will have to wait for such useful international coordination on capital flows and economic policies to take place.

Contributed by Global Trends, Martin Khor

> The views expressed are entirely the writer’s own.

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Sunday 8 September 2013

Time for crucial fiscal reforms: Malaysia Budget 2014

Analysts expect Budget 2014 to address deficit concerns 

 Citi researchs ays there is a high probability that GST implementation will be announced in the budget.

THE long queues at petrol stations on Monday night was a precursor of things to come. Motorists waited patiently for their turn to fill their petrol tanks just before the price of RON 95 and diesel jumped 20 sen a litre at midnight.

It was a scene played out a number of times over the years when petrol prices at the pump were increased as energy subsidies were cut.

This time around, the decision to trim the fuel subsidy was just part of a greater scheme.

It was the first salvo in the Government’s effort to bring down the fiscal deficit and eyes are now squarely on just what more needs to be done to whittle the deficit to 3% by 2015 and a balanced budget by 2020.

On the cards is the continued rationalisation of subsidies and the sequencing of big ticket projects to lessen the import bill that has squeezed the current account surplus in the second quarter.

Moody’s Investors Service, in its assessment of the move to hike the price of fuel, says it represents a credit positive step in the Government’s larger fiscal consolidation plan but it is waiting for details of which are to be unveiled in the October budget speech.

The cut in petrol subsidies will result in savings of RM1.1bil and RM3.3bil for 2014. Analysts are divided whether that will be enough for the Government to meet its deficit target of 4% this year as there are still large expenditure transfers. “We currently forecast the deficit at more than 4% of gross domestic product (GDP) and the lack of additional reforms would place the Government’s fiscal targets increasingly out of reach,” says Moody’s.

The need to maintain such transfers such as the 1Malaysia People’s Aid is to ease the burden on the low-income and vulnerable groups as subsidies get rationalised. The continuation of such expenditures also allows for targeted subsidies to low-income households.

The Government is also looking at a comprehensive social safety net and further fiscal measures would also be introduced. It is expected that more fiscal tightening measures will be introduced during the budget.

There was, however, a knee-jerk reaction to the cut in fuel subsidies. The ringgit bounced back from its slide against the US dollar but analysts say any sustainable climb will depend on what the market sees from further fiscal reform measures.

More than reducing subsidies 

The timing of announcing the outline of its fiscal reform measures and the first cut in fuel subsidies was in response to worries by the rating agencies of the fiscal debt situation in Malaysia.

“Faced with the risk of a sovereign ratings downgrade and investors’ focus on the domestic and external sectors’ vulnerabilities at a time of a retrenchment of foreign capital, it is crucial that Malaysia fine tunes its macroeconomic policy mix for growth and financial stability over the medium term,” says CIMB Research chief economist Lee Heng Guie.

He feels that a fundamental review is also required to weed out the country’s non-developmental, low priority and unproductive expenditure, while focusing on growth-oriented spending.

“The problem of overlapping spending schemes has to be avoided. More cost-saving initiatives, including a critical review and reform of the procurement system to combat wastages and leakages must be implemented.

“A fiscal consolidation strategy should be accompanied by better fiscal and financial control over public-private partnerships and state-owned enterprises, aimed at putting the gross public debt-to-GDP ratio as well as contingent liabilities (loans guaranteed by the federal government) on a firm downward trajectory in the medium-term,” he says.

GST and RPGT

It is widely expected that a schedule for implementing a Goods and Services tax will be revealed when the budget is announced in October.

Citi research, in a note, thinks there is a high probability that GST implementation will be announced in the budget. “We doubt the Government will tempt the wrath of ratings agencies after raising hopes last week with such talk,” it said.

Reports have quoted Tan Sri Irwan Serigar Abdullah, the secretary general of the Finance Ministry, as saying that if the GST is announced during the upcoming budget for implementation in 2015, the rate will likely be between 4% and 4.5%.

For one, the GST itself will mean more taxes as the Government is expected to generate more revenue from its introduction. One economist also adds that a lot of businesses are also in favour of a GST because of the billions of ringgit it stands to gain from an imput tax rebate.

He says that analysis has shown expenditure will also rise because of GST and therefore, targeted social welfare programmes for the low-income earners will be needed once GST is implemented.

The other tax that will likely see a hike is the real property gains tax (RPGT). A higher RPGT, together with possibility higher stamp duty charges for higher priced properties, should increase government revenue. But one big motive behind hiking the RPGT, and possible raising the floor price on properties eligible for purchase by foreigners, is to cool down the property sector and stem the rapid rise in property prices.

Property prices are generally considered to be unaffordable for a growing segment of the population.

Impact on the economy

Fiscal reforms will mean cutting down expenditure and some economists are expecting economy to feel the impact from slower government expenses.

“We cut our 2013 GDP growth forecast to 4.4% from 5% earlier and 2014 estimate to 5% from 5.2% earlier – both of these numbers are now below the consensus expectations,” says Credit Suisse in a report.

“This downgrade reflects headwinds against private consumption from higher fuel prices and likely delays of some infrastructure projects hitting investment.” With the budget projected to be less expansionary, some are suggesting that the Government will look at ways to boost exports and drive investments as a means to compensate for slower spending.

“It is left to be seen if there will be a cut in corporate taxes and whether that will be enough to drive investments. As it stands, a lot of companies have a lot of cash in their balance sheet and it will have to be a big cut to get them to start putting that money to work,” says an economist.

“If that done, then there will be a big gap between corporate and personal income taxes.”

- Contributed by   By JAGDEV SINGH SIDHU  jagdev@thestar.com.my