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Saturday, 6 April 2013

Singapore kiasu (怕输) in a rising China

The republic is concerned about China’s rising economy resulting in an expanding maritime force at a time when the US military might is weakening.

FOR a few days last week, Singapore’s prime minister left behind his troubles at home to face a tricky foreign policy matter that his father once excelled in.

Lee Hsien Loong paid his second visit to the United States in six years that was evidently aimed at deepening Singapore’s strategic ties with Washington at a time of rising tensions in Asia.

In a meeting with President Barack Obama at the White House, Hsien Loong appealed to the economically-weakened United States to stay committed in Asia despite plans for big defence cuts.

Of late, Asia has been plagued by territorial claims and counter-claims involving China and at least a dozen countries, sometimes resulting in frictions and warning shots being fired.

While Hsien Loong was in America, former Singapore prime minister Goh Chok Tong arrived in China for a seven-day visit, where he met the new Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The Singaporean leader’s US visit took place as many foreign leaders were sending congratulations to Xi on his assumption of office.

It comes in the wake of a decision by the American president and Congress to cut the Pentagon’s budget by US$487bil (RM1.498 trillion) over the next decade. The cut took effect on March 1.

Singapore has become more concerned about China’s rising economy resulting in an expanding maritime force at a time when the US military might is weakening.

His attempt to maintain a balance in the republic’s ties with China and United States had long been the forte of founding leader Lee Kuan Yew. It had kept Singapore in good stead with both.

Despite this, Singapore has been placing greater trust on the protection of the United States.

Although Singaporeans are predominantly Chinese and have built up strong economic and other ties with Beijing, the city has strong military and strategy relations with Washington.

Singapore is more worried about China’s soft encroaching use of its power in the area than any prospect of it starting a war in Asia.

For example, Beijing has begun using a new passport which shows a map showing several disputed territories as part of the nation of China.

This has instilled regional worries, leading several countries involved to strengthen ties with the United States.

In a new book released in February, Kuan Yew – now a passive 89-year-old Member of Parliament – voices worries about China’s rise in power.

“Many small and medium countries in Asia are concerned (and are) uneasy that China may want to resume the imperial status it had in earlier centuries,” Kuan Yew says.“They have misgivings such as being treated as vassal states.”

“China tells us that countries big or small are equal, that it is not a hegemon,” Kuan Yew writes.

“But when we do something they do not like, they say you have made 1.3 billion people unhappy. So please know your place.”

It prompted Singapore to move closer militarily to the United States years ago by offering passing facilities for its air force and navy, including aircraft carriers.

Hsien Loong’s visit probably has another purpose. Singapore is reportedly on the verge of making a decision to buy America’s F-35 fighter jets to upgrade its air force.

Singapore’s defence minister Ng Eng Hen said last week that the air force “has identified the F-35 as a suitable aircraft to further modernise our fighter fleet”.

“Our F-5s are nearing the end of their operational life and our F-16s are at their mid-way mark,” he said in parliament. “We are now in the final stages of evaluating the F-35.”

The order could be for 12 F-35Bs (estimated cost: US$2.8bil (RM8.6bil)), which can take off and land vertically, a useful feature given Singapore’s limited air space.

However, it is not known if there are further plans to buy more in future. Reuters quoted industry and US sources as saying Singapore may buy up to 75 F-35Bs eventually.

Singapore was the world’s fifth-largest importer of conventional weapons in 2008-12, at 4% of the global total, the Stockholm Inter­national Peace Research Institute says. It trailed behind India, China, Pakistan and South Korea.

The visiting Hsien Loong was assured by US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel that the United States remained “committed to­­wards the Asia-Pacific region”.

Of growing US focus is China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, which is projecting the country’s new maritime power.

Although Hsien Loong became prime minister eight years ago, this is his first real test of his diplomatic skill in a major foreign policy without Cabinet guidance from his father.

This visit – and the consequences – will determine if he could succeed in steering Singapore through the intensifying rivalry of China and the United States.

In his after-dinner speech in Washington, Hsien Loong said Singapore got along well with both.

One reason he implied was China needed to look at his city-state to try to understand how it could balance its own economic and social goals while growing.

The Chinese needs Singapore as a political model for them to learn from, without political reforms, Hsien Loong told the Americans.

What of China’s intention? Kuan Yew says he is certain China’s leaders want to displace United States as the leading power in the Asia-Pacific.But in speeches published, he says he is less worried about the current generation of leaders than he does about the next.

  Insight: DOWN SOUTH By SEAH CHIANG NEE

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Friday, 5 April 2013

First lady in the limelight

China's Peng Liyuan joins the ranks of the world's most fashionable first ladies.


Xi Jinping and Peng Liyuan arrive in Moscow. Photograph: Ivan Sekretarev/AP


He is the most powerful person in China and head of the world's second largest economy, but when Xi Jinping arrives for the Brics summit in South Africa on Tuesday, chances are that all eyes in his home country will be on the woman at his side.

Peng Liyuan, China's new first lady, was the talk of Chinese social media at the weekend during a trip to Russia when she emerged as a trendy contrast to her predecessors.

Pictures of Peng stepping off a plane with Xi in Moscow on Friday – the first stop on his first trip abroad since assuming China's presidency on 14 March – went viral online with praise for her attire: black high heels and stockings, an understated leather bag and a light blue scarf emerging from beneath a dark trenchcoat, collar turned up against the wind.

The 50-year-old People's Liberation Army singer is often compared to Carla Bruni-Sarkozy, Michelle Obama, Raisa Gorbachev and even Kate Middleton: a charismatic performer, trendsetter and dash of colour in an otherwise monochrome regime.

"I kind of knew she would play some role in public life, but not in this way," said Wang Zhengxu, an associate professor of contemporary Chinese studies at the University of Nottingham. "Somehow she just hijacked the limelight from Xi Jinping on Chinese cyberspace. That's quite a dramatic development in my view."

After bloggers identified Peng's bag, coat and scarf as products from the Guangzhou-based outlet Exception, the company's website crashed on Friday from an overload of traffic. On Sunday the site was still loading only intermittently.

Exception was founded by a Guangzhou-based couple in 1996 who now run about 100 outlets across the country. "[Its CEO] once said Exception is best suited for this type of woman: a bit artistic, someone who appreciates quality but also stands apart, someone who understands international trends but wants to express her eastern flare," the LadyMax fashion website reported. "Is this not Peng Liyuan's style?"

The Beijing-based entrepreneur Wang Lifen said Peng's life story was a classic inspirational tale.

"Born into poverty, she used her innate singing ability to leave her home town, worked diligently to complete a master's degree at China Conservatory of Music, and used her gradually growing fame and visionary intelligence to start dating a low-level cadre," she wrote. "This is why so many people admire her."

The recently retired president Hu Jintao's wife, Liu Yongqing, and Jiang Zemin's wife, Wang Yeping, were both known to keep low profiles. Looking for their names on Chinese search engines brings up only fragmentary biographical information such as birth dates and alma maters.

When Xi assumed the Communist party's top post in November, analysts predicted that Peng would remain as low-key as her predecessors: after all, the soprano had chosen to eschew large-scale performances in recent years to avoid drawing attention from her husband's political career.

Yet Peng's arrival in Moscow was covered extensively by China Central Television and received a full-page spread in the Beijing News. The couple arrived in Tanzania on Sunday, and on Monday Peng was pictured in a bright red scarf casually draped over a tailored black jacket and white dress.

Some commentators have expressed hopes that she will take a more active role in forthcoming visits to South Africa and the Republic of Congo. Peng was appointed as the World Health Organisation's goodwill ambassador for tuberculosis and Aids in 2011.

Peng joined the People's Liberation Army as a civilian at 18 and had already reached the heights of folksinging fame when she first met Xi in the south-eastern province of Fujian in 1986. She is best known for her 24 years as a soloist at the annual spring festival gala, perhaps the most-watched television event in the world, belting folk songs in her brassy, nasal soprano.

In one widely shared video clip, Peng, dressed in military garb, sings about "bravely advancing for victory" amid a chorus line of bayonet-wielding soldiers. The stage show is juxtaposed with stock footage of battle-ready Chinese tanks, jets and warships.

Internet censors have given largely free reign to positive discussion of Peng but have kept a grip on the conversation. Terms such as "Auntie Peng" and "first lady Xi" have been blocked on Sina Weibo. Wang Zhengxu said censors probably wanted to maintain Peng's image as a symbol of public diplomacy rather than brash commercialism.

Guardian News & Media

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Thursday, 4 April 2013

Malaysia's future lies in Malaysian hands! Electoral system for GE13 ready now?

FINALLY, the curtain has been drawn and the ball is at our feet to decide the destiny of our nation over the next five years.




 The much-awaited announcement on the dissolution of Parliament was made at 11.30am yesterday, exactly four years after Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak took office as the sixth Prime Minister of Malaysia.

Although everyone waited for the dissolution for quite some time, I think the Prime Minister waited till this day to complete his four years of premiership. And of course, he had a lot on his agenda to be completed especially the Janji Ditepati tour and all his other innovative and transformative plans.

Whether the polls were called last year or not, it’s the prerogative of the PM of the day to call the shots and he had done it well within the stipulated period. He had until April 28 to do so.

Polling should be held within 60 days and my guess is it will be held within 30 days and let’s hope the voters will make good use of this opportunity to elect the right people to run the country.

Our future lies in the hands of 13 million voters and everyone should exercise their vote with utmost sincerity. Whichever divide we support, let’s be rational and civil about it.

At the end of the day, we are talking about our nation, our beloved Malaysia.

I am not propagating whom you should vote for but vote you must, professionally and wisely.

Do not be misled and succumb to empty promises.

We need a leader who is truly a Malaysian at heart, one who cares for the rakyat. Reject the extremists.

As the Prime Minister has said, do not derail Vision 2020. Whoever comes to power should focus their attention on achieving the developed status of our country.

Vision 2020 is not only Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s dream but the dream of all Malaysians.

Policies and plans laid out for the betterment of the country should be complemented. One should always put the nation above self.

To all the parties, especially Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat, I hope that common sense will prevail before, during and after the polls.

Let’s hope and pray the run-up to the elections will be fair and clean and at the same time the parties concerned will act maturely and ethically.

At the end of the day, common sense should prevail and chaos after the elections should not be an option.

All parties should accept the decision of the voters and the verdict gracefully.

To the winners, syabas and to those who failed, I wish you the best the next time around.

Do not underestimate the intelligence of the voters. We are no more the katak di bawah tempurung - simply put, naive.

We, the rakyat, are very well-informed and would not be easily swayed by sweet talk or fiery speeches. We only want the truth and the best from our elected representatives.

JAYARAJ KGS Sitiawan - The Star

Is Malaysia’s electoral system ready for GE13? 

One of the special features in Malaysia’s multi-ethnic society is the still predominantly race-based party system. UMNO, the long term dominant ruling party was founded in 1946 as a reaction against the granting of citizenship to Chinese and Indian immigrants upon independence. 

With a possible, some say probable, watershed and regime change for Malaysia’s increasingly competitive political system in the pipeline, it is useful to look into the election system and its mechanisms. The media, fascinated with personality clashes, campaign highlights and the outcome of elections, don’t look too often into details of the electoral law. And most voters don’t care much whether the ruling governments tweak the rules in their own favour, most often by changing the boundaries of precincts more or less unnoticed – the old, widespread, and popular gerrymandering. Malaysia is not alone here, but the discrepancies in the electoral size of constituencies in favour of Malay and against Chinese areas have been “adjusted” frequently and helped the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) to safeguard its dominance over the last decades.

One of the special features in Malaysia’s multi-ethnic society is the still predominantly race-based party system. UMNO, the long term dominant ruling party was founded in 1946 as a reaction against the granting of citizenship to Chinese and Indian immigrants upon independence. The defensive attitude of the Malay (then shaky) majority, understandably insisting on political dominance in their own homeland, led to the formation of other ethnic-based political parties. UMNO, in a successful move to broaden its support base since 1974, managed to co-opt the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC),  the Malaysian People’s Movement Party (GERAKAN) and a number of parties in Sabah and Sarawak into the National Front (Barisan Nasional / BN) coalition (now altogether 13 parties), which enjoyed a huge majority in Parliament until 2008.

Irregularities in most general elections until now have been reported quite regularly. The long list reaches from vote buying, stuffing of ballot boxes, bussing of voters to other constituencies and multiple voting, “phantom voters”, “imported voters”, “missing voters”, manipulated voters lists, to granting citizenship to illegal immigrants (mainly from Indonesia and the Philippines). The latter is now one of the major arguments to attack UMNO and Prime Minister Najib Razak for this citizenship for votes trick. Najib, who has promised his followers to win back the coalition’s two-thirds majority, seems to struggle for political survival now, if rumours and polls are a reliable indicator.

The Barisan Nasional has been only nominally multi-racial but cemented in reality the Malay dominance and privileges (with quite a number of affirmative action measures), which nearly guaranteed so called “safe deposit” constituencies especially in rural areas. Pretending that the Malay political dominance was under threat has always rallied Malay voters behind the ruling coalition. And to make things even more difficult, the competition of the Islamic Party PAS often forced UMNO to demonstrate its religious credentials. With the resentment against this concept among non-Malay minorities (at least about 30%) growing with the frustration about strings of prominent corruption-scandals, it was a logical strategic move for opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim to form a multi-racial party, the Peoples’ Justice Party or Parti Keadilan Rakyat in 2003. Anwar, after being sacked from UMNO and his post as Deputy Prime Minister in 1998, accused under dubious circumstances of corruption and sodomy and imprisoned, is back on the political scene since 2008 and the probable Prime Minister if his opposition “Peoples’ Pact” (Pakatan Rakyat / PR) wins the upcoming election. The Pakatan Rakyat is not without internal problems given the diversity of its members, namely the Malay Islamic rival of UMNO, Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) and the Chinese Democratic Action Party (DAP). However, given the erosion of the Barisan Nasional component parties Gerakan (officially multi-racial but predominantly Chinese and the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), Pakatan Rakyat seems to be a very strong challenger to the ruling coalition.

Inherited from the British colonial master, Malaysia has adopted a clear-cut first-past-the-post majoritarian election system which has helped to keep UMNO and its BN component parties in power so far. The Barisan-coalition contesting the elections practically as one single party gave few choices to the voters and made it more than difficult for opposition parties to make inroads… until 2008 when more voters were fed up with arrogance of power and all too visible corruption. The majority of the BN in 2008 was clear, with 140 seats against 82 for the opposition, which is four times their previous share. But in relative vote shares it was as narrow as 50.27% against 46.75%. And nota bene: in the first-past-the-post electoral system relatively small changes in voter preferences can change the outcome dramatically.

By Wolfgang Sachsenroeder, New Mandala  

Related post:
26 Mar 2013

Wednesday, 3 April 2013

Apple CEO apologizes over China warranties


Play Video
American technology giant, Apple, has issued a public letter of apology to Chinese consumers over the company’s warranty policies in China. Apple’s CEO Tim Cook signed the statement, saying the company is sorry for any "concerns or misunderstandings" that have been caused.



In the letter, Cook said that over the past two weeks, Apple has received feedback concerning its warranty policies in China and the company has "reflected" on this.

He said APPLE takes the feedback seriously and is seeking to allay concerns that the company was being arrogant by not responding to them. He said this was due to lack of communication on Apple’s part and that it was sorry for any inconvenience caused to consumers.

In the statement, Apple said the company is making four major adjustments to improve its after-sales services for Chinese consumers, including improving its warranty for iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S, enhancing supervision over and training for authorized service providers.

APPLE’s apology comes after the China Consumer’s Association asked Apple to "sincerely apologize" to Chinese consumers and "thoroughly correct its problems," after taking little action to address criticism, started by China Central Television , which exposed Apple’s after-sales services failings in China in a special TV program.

The CCA demanded that Apple inform consumers if refurbished parts are used when repairing broken devices, and that repair costs should be calculated accordingly.

South Korea, Australia and Italy have filed similar claims against Apple, citing cases where refurbished products had been used to repair damaged iPhones, higher prices had been charged and its failure to publish warranty information in those countries.

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Sulu sultanate, Muedzul Lail Tan Kiram gave Datuk Seri title


PETALING JAYA: Muhammad Ridhwan Sulaiman (pic right) carries a “Datuk Seri” title given to him by the so-called Sulu sultanate, a claimant to the controversial throne said.

Muedzul Lail Tan Kiram said he bestowed the title upon Muhammad Ridhwan after his “coronation” on Sept 16 last year.

“I conferred the title to him as an honour because he has helped my people,” Muedzul said from Manila yesterday.

He said Muhammad Ridhwan gave money generously to support his programmes to alleviate poverty among his people, including for hospitalisation and religious activities.

“To our people, he is like a hero. He was a bridge between Malaysia and the Suluk,” added Muedzul, who lives on Sulu island.

He said he didn't not agree with the actions of Jamalul Kiram III, another claimant to the Sulu throne, who sent armed men to Sabah to reclaim it as their territory.

Muhammad Ridhwan, 48, is president of the Al-Ehsan Islamiah charity foundation based in Penang.

He has been detained under the Security Ordinance and Security Measures Act 2012 after turning himself in to police over the incursions in Sabah.

In BUTTERWORTH, Muhammad Ridhwan's family said he did not support terrorists, insisting his dealings with Muedzul were “purely business”.

Nur Rina Abdullah, 39, said her husband, a Kubang Pasu Umno division member, got to know the self-styled sultan six months ago.

“My husband was looking for investment opportunities for Al-Ehsan Islamiah. So, he wanted to explore the virgin coconut oil business and decided to tap its potential in Sulu Island, which has ample supply of coconuts,” she said at their home in Taman Inderawasih in Prai yesterday.

She said her husband, a Hindu known as Ravindran Subramaniam Nair before his father and their entire family converted to Islam about 20 years ago, once ran a legal firm in Kuala Lumpur.

Nur Rina, a Catholic before she embraced Islam, said they later moved to Penang and started a banana leaf restaurant in Bandar Baru Air Itam on the island.

She said the venture failed and Muhammad Ridhwan, who was born in Taiping, set up another legal firm in George Town in 2008.

She joined him as a field officer while their son Muhammad Danish Nair, 22, was the firm's customer service officer.

The couple have four other children, with the youngest aged 14.

“We understand the police need to conduct necessary investigations, but we pray that he will be released soon,” she said.

- Sources: The Star/Asia News Network

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Tuesday, 2 April 2013

Sultan of Sulu, who is the true and legitimate?

Sultan Muhammad Fuad A. Kiram I (The last son of HM Sultan Esmail E. Kiram I - Sultan of Sulu 1947 to 1973) or Sultan Muedzul-Lail Tan Kiram (son of  Sultan Moh. Mahakuttah A. Kiram - 34th Sultan of Sulu 1974 - 1986)
 
Muedzul-Lail Tan Kiram 35th Sultan of Sulu Son of  Sultan Moh. Mahakuttah A. Kiram 34th Sultan of Sulu (1974 - 1986)
Sultan of Sulu - Sultan Jamalul Kiram II (1894-1936).
 
Sultan of Sulu, Al-marhum Sultan Moh. Jamalul Kiram II (1893-1936) was recognized worldwide. During his long reign he signed several treaties with different nations.  
 Sultan of Sulu, Al-marhum Sultan Moh. Jamalul Kiram II
Unfortunately he has no offspring of his own. He passed on his authority to his youngest brother Al-marhum Sultan Mawallil Wasit Kiram (1936).

Al-marhum Sultan Mawallil Wasit Kiram was Sultan Muedzul-Lail Tan Kiram's great grandfather and Al-marhum Sultan Moh. Jamalul Kiram II was his great grand uncle.

Sultan Muedzul-Lail Tan Kiram is the grandson of the 33rd Sultan of Sulu, Al-marhum Sultan Moh. Esmail E. Kiram I (1950-1973)
  
Al-marhum Sultan Moh. Esmail E. Kiram I has granted authority to Philippine government under the administration of President Diosdado Macapagal on 12th of September 1962 and of President Ferdinand Marcos in 1969.

Sultan Muedzul-Lail Tan Kiram's mother Dayang-Dayang Farida Tan-Kiram was the first wife of his father.
Half tausug and half Chinese, she was commonly known as the Princess of Sulu.
His father's second wife is Dayang-Dayang Merriam Tanglao-Kiram, commonly known as the Princess of the South.
 
Al-marhum Sultan Moh. Mahakuttah A. Kiram, 34th Sultan of Sulu had seven children:

1. Dayang-Dayang Zuharra T.Kiram
2. Dayang-Dayang Dinwasa T. Kiram Delos Santos
3. Raja Muda Muedzul Lail Tan Kiram
4. Datu Yldon Tan Kiram
5. Dayang-Dayang Nur Mahal T. Kiram
6. Dayang-Dayang Ayesha T. Kiram
7. Dayang-Dayang Tanya Rowena T. Kiram -Tahil
 
Sultan Muedzul-Lail Tan Kiram is married with H.M. Dayang-Dayang Mellany S. Kiram. They have seven children.

1. Raja Muda Moh. Ehsn S. Kiram
2. Datu Nizamuddin S. Kiram
3. Dayang-Dayang Rahela S. Kiram
4. Datu Jihad S. Kiram
5. Datu Mujahid S. Kiram
6. Dayang-Dayang Redha S. Kiram
7. Datu Mahakuttah S. Kiram
 
Sultan Muedzul-Lail Tan Kiram studied Islam in Lahore, Pakistan (1995-1996). He got a Bachelor of Arts (BA) degree from AE College, Zamboanga. He also served the local community as a government official. At present he is involved as a civil society leader in the Province of Sulu which opposes the US-RP Balikatan Exercises of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA).
 
Sultan Muedzul-Lail Tan Kiram was born in Jolo. Jolo was once the capital of a maritime empire that traded with the great  Empire of China and with other kingdoms in Southeast Asia. 

As Raja Muda of Sulu, the Sultanate is Sultan Muedzul-Lail Tan Kiram birthright. There is a sacred bond between the Sultan and his people, the Rayaat, that is handed down from generation to generation between the royal family and trusted people who live in Sabah and in the Sulu Archipelago.

The Sulu Archipelago includes Palawan, Sabah, Zamboanga Peninsula, Basilan, Tawi-Tawi, the Sprately islands and the Balambagan group of islands.  Historically it was part of  Nusantara. According to oral history and traditions, Sulu has been independent and sovereign centuries before the birth of the Republic of Philippines. Sultan Muedzul-Lail Tan Kiram's ancestors contracted treaties with powerful nations and defended Sulu rights to freedom in traditional way of life against invaders.

But from the start of the Philippine Republic which lumped Sulu with the rest of the islands under the name Philippine Archipelago, Sulu has experienced devastation, death and downfall.

The Macaski Judgment over the Sabah issue in 1939 was a blow to the Sulu Sultanate. Sultan Muedzul-Lail Tan Kiram's grandfather, Sultan Moh. Esmail E. Kiram I was one of the recipients of that judgment. The Macaski settlement divided Sulu into divisions

Sabah became a private property and the heirs of the Sultan were divided among themselves. One group wanted Sabah for sale while another group wanted to take it back.

When Sultan Muedzul-Lail Tan Kiram's  grandfather, Sultan Moh. Esmail E. Kiram I, granted authority to the Philippine government through Pres. Diosdado Macapagal and Pres. Ferdinand Marcos, it was with the hope that the Philippine government would become a caretaker of the domain of the Sulu Sultanate to help the Muslims in this archipelago. This transfer of sovereign authority carried with these obligations and agreements.

As Sulu political power is declined, the unity of the Tausug people in the whole archipelago also has weakened. The economic life of the whole region was brought to the lowest level. Then came the Muslim rebellion and the civil war in 1974 that devastated the whole Sulu. Hundreds of thousands innocent people died.
 
In 1974 Sultan Muedzul-Lail Tan Kiram's  father was installed as the Sultan of Sulu. His father's twelve year reign started the slow but steady recovery of Sulu people

However after his death (February 16, 1986) there were several claimants made by pretenders (royals and non-royals) to the title of Sultan.

During the coronation process of Sultan Muedzul-Lail Tan Kiram as the 35th Sultan of Sulu

Sultan Muedzul-Lail Tan Kiram, 35th Sultan of Sulu, together with 
Mellany S. Kiram and Crown Prince Moh. Ehsn S. Kiram.

Sultan Muedzul-Lail Tan Kiram has waited  twenty-two years for the official recognition to succeed his father.

Source :  Royal Sultanate of Sulu Facebook

(Joined Facebook on 12th May 2011)

**********************************************************

Sultan Muhammad Fuad A. Kiram I 
The 35th Reigning Sultan of Sulu 
 The last son of HM Sultan Esmail E. Kiram I 
(Sultan of Sulu 1947 to 1973)
Sultan Muhammad Fuad A. Kiram I 
Indonesia Minister of Religious Affairs granted the rank and tittle of hereditary knighthood 
by Sultan Fuad A. Kiram I
(2nd December 2011)

Chancellor of Al Zaytun granted the rank and tittle of hereditary knighthood 
by Sultan Fuad A. Kiram I
(Al Zaytun is the biggest Islamic boarding school in Indonesia)
  ( 27th November 2011)
Source :  

The Royal Hashemite Sultanate of Sulu & Sabah Facebook
 (joined Facebook on 7th May 2011)

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Monday, 1 April 2013

Will the lessons be learnt from the financial crisis in Cyprus?

This time, it is Cyprus’ turn to face a bitter financial crisis as bank depositors get hit and capital controls are imposed. 


Demonstrators in Athens. The roots of the eurozone crisis lie in its unwillingness to uphold fiscal discipline. Photograph: Louisa Gouliamaki/AFP/Getty Images



THE financial crisis in Cyprus has again shown that over-dependence on the financial sector and an unregulated and liberalised financial system can cause havoc to an economy.

The particular manner in which a financial crisis manifests itself may be different from country to country, depending on the ways the country became financially over-reliant or over-liberalised, and also on how ever-changing external conditions affect the country.

For the past two weeks, Cyprus hit the headlines because of the rapid twists and turns of its crisis, the terms of the bailout it negotiated with its European and IMF creditors, the hit that bank depositors are forced to take, and finally the “capital controls” that the government has imposed to prevent bank runs and capital flight out of the country.

Depositors with more than 100,000 (RM396,000) could lose more than half their savings.

Bank customers can only withdraw 300 (RM1,189) daily; cashing of cheques is prohibited; transfers of funds to accounts held abroad or in other credit institutions are prohibited; transfers due to trade transactions above 5,000 (RM19,832) a day require central bank permission; the use of credit cards overseas is restricted to 5,000 (RM19,832) per account a month; and travellers can only take out 1,000 (RM3,960) or equivalent in foreign currency per trip.

These capital controls, announced on March 28, were highlighted in the media as the first to be imposed by a country belonging to the European Union.

It was like the slaying of a “sacred cow”, because the freedom to move funds out of and into the European countries had been treated almost like a human right.

But it is this total freedom for the flow of funds that has contributed or even been ultimately responsible for so many financial crises in so many countries in the past few decades.

This liberalised system of capital flows enables residents to place their funds abroad or to purchase foreign assets like bonds and shares.

It also enables foreigners to bring in funds either for short-term speculation and investment or longer-term investment and savings.

After the Second World War, capital controls were the rule: flows of funds to and from abroad were mainly restricted to activities linked to the real economy of trade, direct investments and travel.

From the mid-1970s, the liberalisation of capital flows took place in the rich economies and gradually spread to many developing countries.

The finance ministers of Brazil and of other developing countries have been protesting against the easy-money policies in rich countries that have had adverse effects on emerging economies.

When the internal or external situation changes and investor perception changes with it, the inflow of funds turns into its opposite.

The sudden outflow of funds, and depreciation of the currency, can then cause an even more devastating effect on the economy.

In the 1997-99 crisis, East Asian countries that had over-liberalised their financial system found that local banks and companies had borrowed heavily in US dollars.

When their currencies depreciated, many of the borrowers could not service their loans.

The countries’ foreign reserves dropped to danger levels, forcing them to go to the IMF for bailout loans.

Malaysia fortunately had some control over the amount local companies could borrow from abroad, which prevented it from falling into an external debt crisis.

The imposition of capital controls over outflows in September 1998 enabled Malaysia to avoid a financial crisis requiring an IMF bailout.

The immediate response from the IMF and the Western establishment was that the capital controls would destroy the Malaysian economy.

Today, the economic orthodoxy has changed, and most analysts including at the IMF give credit to Malaysia for the capital controls.

The Malaysian controls included a temporary ban on foreigners transferring their ringgit denominated funds (for example in the stock market) abroad, a limit to the funds local travellers could take out of the country, and limits to overseas investments by local companies and individuals.

Today, the IMF itself has changed its position, saying that capital controls in certain situations are not only legitimate but may also be necessary.

It has partially recognised that unregulated capital flows can cause financial instability and economic damage.

In the case of Cyprus, analysts now conclude that its growth model was flawed because it was too reliant on a bloated financial sector, having become a haven for foreign savers, especially from Russia.

But a major factor in its recent crisis was that the country’s biggest banks invested in Greek government bonds.

In October 2011, a bailout package was arranged for Greece by the European Union and the IMF.

Part of the bailout terms was that holders of Greek government bonds would take a “haircut” or loss of about 50%.

This Greek debt restructuring meant a loss of 4bil (RM15.9bil) for banks in Cyprus, a huge amount in a country whose GNP is only 18bil (RM71.4bil).

Now, it is Cyprus’ turn to be reconfigured and re-created as part of a 10bil (RM39.7bil) bailout scheme. The two biggest banks, Bank of Cyprus and Laiki Bank are to be drastically restructured, with the latter to be closed.

The biggest innovation designed by the European Union and IMF creditors is that the bank depositors will have to take losses. Deposits less than 100,000 (RM396,000) are to be spared, after an original plan to also “tax” them by 6.75% was cancelled after a huge outcry and the fear of contagion, with bank runs in many European countries.

The final plan is for deposits over 100,000 (RM396,000) in the two banks to take losses not by the originally planned 9.9% but by much more.

The new European policy of getting bank depositors to take a big hit in bailouts of banks will have big ramifications for public confidence in banks.

The new perception is that money put as savings in banks is no longer safe.

The question remains: will the policymakers learn the real lessons from these crises?


GLOBALTRENDS BY MARTIN KHOR 

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