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Showing posts with label Foreign Exchange (Forex). Show all posts
Showing posts with label Foreign Exchange (Forex). Show all posts

Saturday, 3 June 2023

Is the ringgit weakness permanent?

 

It is important to look at the ringgit weakness from a more holistic perspective.

 

Global currency: the reason the us dollar remains in demand in spite of its national debt and endless printing of money is because the value of the dollar is backed by the us government, its military strength and technological advancement. — reuters

WITH the World Health Organisation declaring Covid-19 no longer a global health emergency and countries opening their borders, we have seen a resurgence in the tourism industry.

Airlines such as Singapore Airlines have declared a record high quarterly profit of S$2.16bil (Rm7.37bil) in its 76-year history.

People are finally travelling again, be it for work or leisure. Yet, the irony of it is the weakness of our local currency.

This has led to many lamenting across social media about our foreign-exchange weakness and the voice of discontent has been growing by the day.

People are bewildered because our underlying economy remains resilient and there are no signs that we are heading anywhere close to a recession.

Even after Bank Negara embarked on a pre-emptive rate hike of the overnight policy rate (OPR) surprising the market, it couldn’t stymie the continued weakness of the ringgit.

So, what is happening?

Factors affecting a currency


In the study of Economics 101, foreign currency is parked under the chapter of macroeconomics.

This means that a currency’s movement is determined pretty much by macroeconomic factors such as inflation, fiscal policy, employment levels, national income and international trade.

Hence, it is impossible to pinpoint our currency’s prolonged weakness on a single reason.

I have heard all sorts of talk in the coffeeshop, including political instability, increasing fiscal deficit, shrinking current account surplus, the US debt ceiling crisis, the weakening oil price and looming recession, among others.

The above-mentioned factors all play a part in contributing to the weakness and none can stand alone to be deemed as the root cause of the issue.

Otherwise, it would be a rather easy fix.

As everything is intertwined and linked, it is important to look at our ringgit weakness from a more holistic perspective.

Exactly 10 years ago, the ringgit’s strength peaked in January 2013 at RM2.96 against one US dollar as the United States was undergoing large-scale quantitative easing to dig itself out of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

Another reason was because the Brent oil price hit a high of US$125 per barrel, record levels at the same period.

There were many reasons that gave confidence to boost the ringgit’s performance as Malaysia was an oil exporter with large infrastructure projects being rolled out by the government of the day.

Even the property market was booming with many foreign buyers and real estate developers venturing into our local markets.

It all went downhill after the 1Malaysia Development Bhd scandal surfaced and the national debt ballooned to astronomical levels with little to show for.

With the oil price correcting to record low levels and large amounts of government allocations being used to defray interest expenses on the debts, this expanded our fiscal deficit.

It all comes down to demand


We often hear about the emphasis on foreign direct investment (FDI).

This is because with FDI, it will promote employment, transfer of skills and business opportunity, among others.

Additionally, from an economic standpoint, FDI increases the money supply and inadvertently the demand for the ringgit.

When FDI falls, demand falls. From the data gathered by the Investment, Trade and Industry Industry, the problem is with domestic direct investment (DDI) rather than FDI.


For the past decade, DDI has been a straight line downward trend.

This effectively means local businesses are not reinvesting their profits or expanding locally as much.

To me, it is a bigger indicator that whatever funds or profits from local businesses are being moved towards the current account, savings account or worst, foreign outflow.

There is little to no multiplier effect and if it is an outflow, it will further reduce the demand for the ringgit and in turn weaken the currency.

Tourism is another aspect that is important to an economy.

Apart from the spillover effect of tourism spending, it is the positive carry that helps with the currency’s strength.

If tourism activity in our country picks up, naturally, there will be more need for the ringgit and in turn leading to its strengthening.

Thailand is good example of a successful tourism nation where tourism is the third-largest economic activity contributing to 20% of the gross domestic product for the country and it is only behind the two key sectors, namely, agriculture and industry.

If we look at the Thai baht performance against the ringgit, we

can see its continued strength from RM1 to 9.61 baht to RM1 to 7.52 baht.

Essentially, all three sectors of Thailand – agriculture, industry and tourism – have been growing in the past decade, which, in turn, increased the demand for their currency.

Continued downtrend


Many are very worried that this downtrend of the ringgit will continue to persist in the years to come.

If we look at what has happened historically, there are of course reasons to be worried.

In my conversation with high-networth clients, their number one concern is always inflation eroding the value of their money.

The second worry is the weakness in the foreign exchange (forex) that erodes the global monetary value of their savings.

Due to this fear, it is easy for private bankers to market foreign products or funds to these clients regardless of the returns.

A client once told me, “Even if I move my savings to Singapore and the stock market or investments do not perform, at the very least the forex carry alone would deliver 40% return in the span of 10 years.”

An indirect measure of the economy is the strength of its currency.

If everyone wants your currency to be their reserve currency, it is likely that your country’s economy is strong and healthy and vice versa.

No matter how we improve the fundamentals of our economy, there will always be a difference between a developed economy and of those developing economies.

The reason the US dollar remains in demand in spite of its national debt and endless printing of money is because the value of the dollar is backed by the US government, its military strength and technological advancement.

China is also pushing for the internationalisation of the yuan and as the second largest economic powerhouse in the world, there are merits to be a highly sought-after currency.

The Singapore dollar’s value manifests in it being an anchor on stability, a haven and its function as an international entrepot.

For the ringgit, its value is probably largely still associated with commodities exporting nation.

While our exports and trade have always been a fixture, more must be done to reflect this value to the world.

Having a strong currency which is in demand is a powerful tool that can be used to a country’s advantage, especially when it comes to business and geopolitical negotiations.

There are many challenges that the government must overcome before we can turn the old economy around and upgrade it to a new model forward.

I remain optimistic about the potential of the country and the talent of this young nation to turn things around.

If we look at how blessed our country is, rich with natural resources, low population density per habitable land area, free from natural disaster, etc, the only thing impeding the progress is good governance and professional management.

To believe a new government can change this overnight (seven months to be precise) is being a tad too optimistic.

More time is needed to restructure the troubles of the past.

If we foster a healthy environment for the SMES to grow, promote food security and self-sufficiency and manage our natural resources prudently, we can become a strong economy in Asean.

A stable currency is paramount for an economy and if we improve investments and reinvestments in the country, the ringgit’s weakness is not permanent.

 By Ng zhu hann 

CEO & Founder, Tradeview Capital | Founder, Hann Partnership | Author, Once Upon A Time In Bursa | Columnist, StarBiz & Nanyang Siang Pau|
 
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Sunday, 9 April 2023

Abuse of hegemony is why de-dollarisation is trending

 US itself is accelerating the de-dollarization process

 De-Dollarization and the Fall of American Hegemony

Ever since the Fed ended its ultra-loose monetary policy and turned to a radical rate hike approach, the international financial market has been in turmoil with many currencies depreciating sharply. That has forced many countries to diversify their foreign exchange reserve assets. – AP

 

MARKET expectations for the Federal Reserve to end interest rate hikes have picked up as core inflation data in the United States has dropped and the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index fell from 67 in February to 62 in March – yet worries abound about the outlook for the US economy.

Former US Treasury secretary Larry Summers said recently that it is too early to say that the US has shaken off the financial woes caused by its rapid interest rate hikes. The US economy is likely to experience a serious recession as a result of the recent banking crisis, with little chances of a “soft landing”. With recession expectations picking up, the factors supporting a strong US dollar are disappearing.

Ever since the Fed ended its ultra-loose monetary policy and turned to a radical rate hike approach, the international financial market has been in turmoil, with many currencies depreciating sharply. That has forced many countries to reduce holdings of US Treasuries, diversifying foreign exchange reserve assets.

In mid-march, Russia’s central bank reported that the ruble and “friendly” currencies together accounted for 52% of Russian export settlements at the end of 2022, surpassing the share of the US dollar and euro for the first time on record.

The members of Asean agreed at the end of March to strengthen the use of local currencies in the region and reduce reliance on major international currencies in cross-border trade and investment. On April 1, India and Malaysia agreed to settle trade in Indian rupees.

Data show that the proportion of US dollar reserves and assets in global central banks’ foreign exchange reserves has dropped from 65.46% in the first quarter of 2016 to 59.79% in the third quarter of 2022.

Despite its declining status, the US dollar still accounts for the largest share of global trade settlement, central banks’ foreign exchange reserves, global debt pricing, and global capital flows. However, the abuse of the US dollar hegemony has led many countries to launch a “de-dollarisation” campaign. The more the US dollar is used as a weapon, the faster it will be abandoned by other countries.

It’s unrealistic that some in the United States want to safeguard the benefits brought by the US dollar as a leading international currency, but don’t want to shoulder corresponding international responsibilities. – China Daily/Asia News Network

 Image result for Asia News Network, images/pictures

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Tuesday, 20 September 2022

The strong dollar should not become a sharp blade to cut the world, THE NEED FOR BRETTON WOODS III


Is the Dollar the key to US hegemony?

 

Illustration:Chen Xia/Global Times

Illustration:Chen Xia/Global Times


The US Federal Reserve will hold a new policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the decision on interest rate growth being the limelight. It is widely anticipated that the Fed will deliver at least another 75-basis-point interest rate hike to tame inflation. This might further increase the value of the US dollar against other currencies, which is at its 20-year high. Driven by the Fed's aggressive rate hikes, the US dollar is viewed as "experiencing a once-in-a-generation rally." For many countries in the world, this might be the beginning of another nightmare.

The meeting will witness the fifth time that the Fed will raise interest rates. The direct reason is to ease the high pressure of inflation in the US. But if people dig the root cause, this is an inevitable consequence of US' blind and unlimited money printing to temporarily maintain "prosperity." In other words, in the face of the deep-seated problems exposed by the 2008 financial crisis, Washington has been powerless, and unwilling as well, to solve them. Instead, it was extremely short-sighted to cover up the crisis and curry favor with the Wall Street, while taking advantage of the hegemony of the US dollar to quietly treat the crisis like dumping wastewater - draining it to the world.

A super strong US dollar and the fall of other currencies will, to a certain extent, ease the scorching inflation in the US economy, but the world will have to pay for it, which is often referred to as "when the US is sick, the world has to takes pill." The ensuing severe inflation, economic recession and other problems have already appeared on a large scale in many countries. Thirty-six currencies around the world have lost at least one-tenth of their value this year, with the Sri Lankan rupee and Argentine peso falling by more than 20 percent, since the dollar strengthened.

This has not only worsened the already weak economies of Europe and Japan, but also forced a large number of developing countries to swallow the bitter pills of the economic recession caused by imported inflation. Countless families were impoverished overnight. This is a very abnormal situation that is not supposed to occur, but it is the cruel truth behind the US "containment of inflation."

In fact, since the end of World War II, the US has used dollar hegemony to carry out "financial looting" or "export crises" against other countries several times. As a widely popular phrase in the West goes, the US enjoys the exorbitant privileges created by the dollar and the deficit without tears, and used the worthless paper note to plunder the resources and factories of other nations.

Each round of dollar appreciation in the past decades has been accompanied by extremely bad memories: The Latin American debt crisis broke out in the first round, Japan suffered from the "lost two decades" during the second round and the Asian financial crisis took place during the third. Particularly in the Asian crisis, which is still fresh in many people's memories, more than 100 million middle-class people in Asia fell into poverty, according to the World Bank estimation. The strengthened dollar, time and again, cuts the world like a sharp blade.

Therefore, while the political elites in Washington boast of the "myth of the American system" and take credit for "alleviating the crisis," thousands of poor families around the world are being trampled by them. They are not unaware of this, but still collectively choose to be indifferent and arrogant, as if this is the privilege that the "hegemon" should enjoy. As US former treasury secretary John Connally put it in the 1970s, "The dollar is our currency, but it's your problem." Today, the dollar is once again the world's problem. In a sense, it's hard to believe that the "prosperity" of the US is clean and moral.

However, the crisis cannot be covered up forever. Washington keeps laying mines but never removes them, which will eventually explode the US itself. The incompetence of US financial policymakers has been exposed by the consecutive interest rate hikes that have contributed to the abnormal appreciation of the US dollar with the purpose of defusing the severe inflation.

For the US itself, what will rise accordingly are the cost of corporate financing, the pressure on residents to repay their loans, and the price of export production among others. Meanwhile, the credibility that the US dollar has as a global currency is being continuously exhausted by the US "beggar-thy-neighbor" policy. Now the anxiety and insecurity brought by the US dollar to the world has heralded the beginning of the decline of its hegemony - regarding Washington's insatiable exploitation, Europe, Asia, the Middle East and other regions have explored the path of "de-dollarization," leading to the inevitable diversification of the international monetary system.

The best way to restrain the rampaging hegemony is to practice true multilateralism. Whether it was the Asian financial crisis in 1997 or the global financial crisis in 2008, the world seemed to have stumbled more than once by the same stone, which, however, is not that firm anymore. The instability and fragility of international financial markets have once again become prominent. It is precisely at such times that the international community should be more determined to cooperate and build a reliable, systemic and long-term multilateral international financial system. This cannot wait. 

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 THE NEED FOR BRETTON WOODS III

World Affairs - Non-Partisan and Objective

The United States of America is in big trouble, short term and long term. In 2022, the stock market is crashing, bond market is down the most in 40 years, housing bubble is bursting, inflation is skyrocketing, debt is exploding, and GDP is shrinking. These are not temporary crises. Instead, they reveal systemic flaws in the American economy that is propped up by a rigged global financial system. 

However, that fraudulent system is starting to crumble and the primacy of US dollar is in serious trouble, thanks to an emerging multipolar world. (Don't believe the nonsense that the US can keep printing infinite amount of dollars).

The US needs to default on its debt and start new. Declare bankruptcy and yet remain the #1 country. This will be the "Bretton Woods III" agreement.

Sounds ridiculous? Well, it's possible only if all the other countries are weak and nobody is strong enough to challenge the US.

This is why the US must not only crush Russia and China — its two biggest geopolitical rivals, but also weaken Europe. This paves the way for the US to establish a new global order which is similarly rigged and just as deceitful and corrupt — in order to prolong the American Century.

Dollar Hegemony

America's extraordinary power comes from the power of US dollar, which is the established global currency for trade. This also means that countries around the world have to accumulate US dollars in their foreign exchange reserves. But the US has been abusing its power by weaponizing the dollar through sanctions and confiscations of hard-earned reserves.

No wonder that China, Russia and others are seeking ways to circumvent the dollar in trade. Since 1999, the share of US dollar assets in central bank reserves has dropped by 12 percentage points—from 71 percent. Hence the share of US dollar in global reserves is now only 59%. When that number falls below 50%, the tectonic shifts in global finance will become more apparent to Americans.

To fully grasp the nature of the current world order, let's see how the US established the dollar as the world currency, carried about the biggest gold heist in human history, then defaulted on its obligations, but revived the moribund dollar with a clever deal. That's the story of Bretton Woods I and II.

Bretton Woods I - Gold-backed Dollar

WW2 was a wonderful thing for the US. First, it took the US economy out of the Great Depression. The US played the role of arms supplier and gladly watched European empires destroy themselves. Even before the war was over, the US brought in all the allies to Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, and said, "When the war is over, you will all be weak and broke. I will be the new empire and my dollar will be the global currency. And it will be as good as gold -- a guaranteed rate of $35 per ounce of gold."

This meant that if you have $35, you can go to a bank and get an ounce of gold!

The world agreed. When the war was over, everyone bought US dollar with gold and used it for trade. Huge amounts of gold were also physically transferred from Japan, Germany and other parts of the world into the vaults of the Federal Reserve Bank in New York.

This system worked until 1971 when the US suddenly declared that, "Oops, the dollar is not backed by gold anymore. If you have US dollars, they are just pieces of paper now. You cannot get your gold back!" People called it the "Nixon Shock."

1970s - When Fiat Dollar almost died

This was also the biggest gold theft in human history. But what could the world do? America had nuclear weapons and the mightiest military.

Of course, the switch to a fiat currency caused havoc. The value of US dollar fell precipitously and inflation skyrocketed. The US economy was in deep trouble. That's when the US elites came up with a clever idea to rescue the dollar and restore its primacy.

Bretton Woods II - The Birth of Petrodollar

How to make the dollar relevant? Hmm...What if everyone needed US dollar to buy something essential?

Like ... OIL. Brilliant!

This was the birth of Petrodollar.

Basically, the U.S. used Saudi Arabia’s oil to save the dollar. That is, Saudi Arabia (and other smaller producers) would sell oil only for US dollars. And to make sure that the Saudis don't get too powerful, they will be forced to recycle most of their profits back into the US economy. It was also a protection racket, which meant the US military would occupy Saudi Arabia and protect it from enemies.

Saudi King Faisal with Kissinger. Birth of Petrodollar. But why would the Saudis agree to this? Because the U.S. make Saudi Arabia the new king of oil and the most influential Middle East power ... after crippling Iran.

Win-win for the US.

Thus, the U.S. armed and funded Saddam Hussein of Iraq to wage a decade-long war on Iran. US provided arms/intelligence. Germany and France provided deadly chemical/biological weapons to Iraq. Here’s Donald Rumsfeld with Saddam in 1983.

Of course, the same Rumsfeld would bomb Iraq and kill Saddam twenty years later.

Thus, the Petrodollar deal with Saudi Arabia could be called as Bretton Woods II. It extended the life of the American Empire by a few more decades.

Bretton Woods III -

For the last four decades, countries around the world have been foolishly working hard for US dollars, buying US treasuries, and funding the American Empire. But within the next decade, those U.S. treasury bills and bonds might be worthless. Deja vu all over again.

The U.S. needs Bretton Woods, Version 3. Somehow, the world needs to write off all American debt and start the racket anew. But … with America still as #1 How the hell could this happen?? This is how:

If the world is full of weak countries, they will accept the new rules -- just like they did in 1944 and 1974. Imagine a world where Russia and Europe destroy one another. Imagine a world where Japan and India attack China … and they all get destroyed. A world on fire, destroyed by passion and bombs.

In that world, America will come in as the savior at the last moment, stop the war, and make everyone a happy vassal.

Great Reset. Bretton Woods III. New World Order. Call it what you will.

Conclusion

The wheels are in motion. After eight years of provocation, the US successfully forced Russia to invade Ukraine. And the US also brilliantly pulled Europe into the mess. Europe's economy is being crushed and de-industrialized.

As for China, the U.S. is trying its best to start a war using Taiwan as the pawn. Japan is being asked to re-militarize and procure 1000 long-range missiles. The US needs a few more years to manufacture this mother of all wars. A lot depends on India, since Japan wouldn't want to be the only Asian country to attack China.

Four years ago, I predicted all this in the article "The Most Dangerous Decade." However, much of the world is still happy to be mesmerized and led into the slaughterhouse.

Only Russia and China can change how this story evolves. If Putin can quickly and decisively win the Ukraine war, he can force a peace settlement with Europe.

And China needs to accelerate the internationalization of Yuan. There is no de-dollarization without a robust alternative financial system. China also needs to muster the greatest diplomatic efforts to make peace with Japan and India, the two most potent adversaries and puppets of the US.

In the most optimistic scenario, the Global South or the people of the developing nations can bring into fruition a new fair world without catastrophic wars or financial devastation. As Sun Tzu said, "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting."

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgzGqQclQQKsTXRZGBMLRQzQzJwZB

 
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Whither the ringgit? US Inflation & workforce are the bigger problems

 

 

 
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Saturday, 6 March 2021

The future of money is digital, but is it bitcoin?

 

Don’t be surprised if by the end of the current decade, the e-wallet on your smartphone resembles a multicurrency account. But instead of dealing with commercial banks, you may be a customer of central banks. Several of them, in fact

 

THE idea that much of today’s cash use will shift to digital tokens is neither faddish nor outlandish, as long as you don’t start equating the future of money with bitcoin.

Sure, governments will borrow some elements of the distributed ledger technology behind private cryptocurrencies, but they will very much want to retain control of what circulates as money in their economies. Some will succeed.

Don’t be surprised if by the end of the current decade, the e-wallet on your smartphone resembles a multicurrency account. But instead of dealing with commercial banks, you may be a customer of central banks. Several of them, in fact.

Sound far-fetched? Apart from the Bahamian Sand Dollar, there’s no official online currency in mass circulation yet.

Still, digital yuan pilots are gathering pace as Beijing aims for a possible rollout coinciding with the 2022 Winter Olympics.

Sweden may be the next major nation to follow suit. The Bank of Japan has no immediate plans, but it acknowledges the possibility “of a surge in public demand” for official digital cash going forward.

Even in the US, which is only toying with the concept, digital payment vehicles that don’t rely on traditional bank accounts can increase financial inclusion among cash users, according to a September 2020 paper by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president Raphael Bostic and others. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says a digital dollar is “absolutely worth looking at”.

Once China and the US are both in the fray, virtual money is bound to become a tool for wielding global influence by carving up the world into new currency blocs. That’s because any token will have dual uses outsidethe issuing nation’s borders.

The dollar or yuan that pops up in a phone wallet in Indonesia or India – backed by a solemn promise of taxpayers in the US or China – could be used for buying goods, services or assets internationally.

Just as easily, this new money can end up replacing domestic currency in people’s daily lives. Although this is no different from traditional dollarisation that occurs in countries plagued by inflation and exchange rate volatility, the convenience and accessibility of central bank-issued digital cash could enable “substitution at a faster pace and larger scale,” according to Tao Zhang, a deputy managing director at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). To stay in control of monetary policy, authorities in smaller economies will need their tokens to be attractive in domestic situations.

The goal for bigger nations may be different: China and the US may want to offer add-ons that make the E-CNY or the Fedcoin the preferred choice for foreigners in settling international claims.

An efficient future will be one in which all central banks’ digital currencies are interoperable. In other words, they’ll interact with one another – and with private-sector alternatives including bitcoin, says Sky Guo, the chief executive of Cypherium.

The US enterprise blockchain startup is a member of the Fed’s Faster Payments Council and of the digital monetary institute of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, or OMFIF, a central banking think tank.

Guo is working on the challenges that will arise when sovereign money gets digitised:

How to process high volumes of transactions quickly, cheaply, and with a strong consensus among registries updated automatically across a network? How to give people a sense of privacy in everyday payments, even after the anonymity of cash is lost?

Central banks will have to make choices. Not all smartphones can run advanced virtual machines, effortlessly executing the software code for automated contracts.

Choose the wrong technology, and the unbanked population might once again get excluded. Ditto for overseas remittances, a US$124 trillion-a-year opportunity for tokens to replace an expensive network of correspondent banks moving money by exchanging SWIFT messages.

But it won’t work for small transfers if the computing power to verify transactions in a decentralised network costs too much. The ideal technology doesn’t necessarily have to be a blockchain, but it should be something “lightweight, flexible and capable of working with legacy systems,” Guo says. Above all, the distributed ledger must be transparent.

There will be other obstacles. “A driving force for lobbying against central bank digital currencies has been established among payment processing giants like Paypal, Venmo and Stripe,” Guo tells me. “Fedcoin won’t need these intermediaries to send funds.

As these companies fall victim to innovation, it’ll be interesting to see how they try to protect themselves from disruption.”

Paypal Holdings Inc, which owns the person-to-person service Venmo, contests Guo’s assertion as false. Supporting and distributing central bank digital currencies is part of Paypal’s vision of an inclusive future, CEO Dan Schulman told investors last month.

Former Bank of England governor Mike Carney, who has proposed an alternative to the dollar through a network of central bank digital currencies, recently joined the board of Stripe Inc.

One way to resolve the tension may be to co-opt the private sector. As IMF economists Tobias Adrian and Tommaso ManciniGriffoli have argued, an official virtual currency could be like Apple’s IOS operating system, with commercial banks and e-money providers running apps on top of it.

The Apple Health app may be fine for a lay user; an athlete will want something more sophisticated. Money could go the same way.

Countries will also have to cooperate with one another. Take M-CBDC Bridge. The project for 24/7 cross-border remittances using central bank digital currencies was begun by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Bank of Thailand, but has now been joined by the central bank of the United Arab Emirates and the People’s Bank of China. ─ Bloomberg

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Deccan Herald
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The future of money is digital but is it Bitcoin?

https://www.deccanherald.com/business/business-news/the-future-of-money-is-digital-but-is-it-bitcoin-958338.html 


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